Back before the season started, we gave you the Vegas lines for a number of bets on Arizona, both collectively and as individual players, Readers were given $1,500 SnakePit dollars and asked to wager on whether the actual totals would be above or below the expected lines. Today 's game was the 54th of the season, marking the exact one-third point of the campaign, so it seems a convenient point to take a look at the lines, see what the pace of the various players concerned is to date, and see whether the 'Pitters have been breaking the sports books' hearts.
When we last looked, it wasn't exactly looking like the SnakePit was going to be dining with Miguel Montero any time soon, being in the hole a collective $21,400 to Vegas - unbridled fan optimism had largely been derailed by injury and ineffectiveness. Have things changed over the month since? Let's see...
As before, for each wager, I'll give you the original projection, then in brackets, how much SnakePit money went on each side of the line, with the first amount being the total bet on over. Then, there's the current pace, based on number through the end of Sunday's game, and whether that will end up being over or under the projected line.
Diamondbacks Wins: 86½ (5550-1100). Pace: 75 - UNDER
After just peeking above .500 in the first installment at 14-13, the team has gone 11-16 since, and this one is looking more and more like a stretch. To reach 87 wins, Arizona would need to go 62-46 the rest of the way, which is a 93-win pace for an entire season. Not impossible - indeed, that's the number I was expecting us to be around this year - but the Diamondbacks certainly need to play a good deal better, and start doing it as soon as possible.
Justin Upton - BA: .290 (1517-900). Pace: .249 - UNDER
Justin Upton - Total HR's 29½ (2850-200). Pace: 15 - UNDER
Justin Upton - Total RBI's 90½ (800-100). Pace: 60 - UNDER
Upton has recovered a little - he was hitting .232 when we last looked - but it has still been an immensely underwhelming season for our MVP. To pass the lines, he needs to hit about .311 the rest of the way, with 25 home-runs and 71 RBI. If anyone is capable of doing that, it'd be Upton, and that's probably the kind of numbers we need from him, if the wins total above is to be achieved.
Chris Young - Total HR's 22½ (1350-900). Pace: 15 - UNDER
Obviously, Young's pace is affected by having missed the majority of the team's games to date - he has only appeared in 23, hitting five home-runs in these. If he keeps up that pace over the remaining 108, he would still be over the Vegas line. However, he has fallen off a cliff since his (likely premature) return from the DL, hitting .140 (6-for-43) with no home-runs in his dozen appearances. That won't cut it, in any sense.
Jason Kubel - Total HR's 20½ (2409-500). Pace: 12 - UNDER
Kubel is another one who has had a power outage of late, with one long-ball in his last 32 games. We can't complain too much from a baseball perspective, given he has been hitting near .290, and leads the team in walks, but hopes of him getting up towards a 30-homer season are pretty much lying in the dust at this point. He has yet to hit a home-run away from Chase, so those who said he'd benefit playing there seem to have been right.
Aaron Hill - Total HR's 17½ (200-5323). Pace: 15 - UNDER
This one has switched sides since last time, and is a major saving grace for the SnakePit's collective wallets, given the heavy wagering even Arizona fans felt was merited on the downside of this one. After galloping off Hill has, similarly to Kubel, lost his power stroke, with a single home-run on his account since April 28th. However, a single home-run is all it would currently take to get him back on track.
Ian Kennedy -Total Wins 14½ (3800-700). Pace: 12 - UNDER
Daniel Hudson - Total Wins 13½ (4858-100). Pace: 6 - UNDER
Trevor Cahill - Total Wins 12½ (2000-100). Pace: 9 - UNDER
Ok, who in spring training had Wade Miley as having most wins for the Diamondbacks at the one-third stage of the season? I doubt there's anyone, given Miley wasn't even going to be on the roster, until virtually the last day of the season, when Takashi Saito had to go on the DL. But here we are in June, and Miley has six victories to his name, as many as Kennedy and Hudson combined. Of course, for Hudson, injury has been a major part of it, but with a mere two wins in the five starts he did make, he'd have been challenged to be on pace, even with an extra half-dozen appearances.
Kennedy and Cahill still have a shot at their marks, if they remain healthy. Kennedy gets to start against the Rockies on Tuesday, and a win there will put him back on schedule. Cahill should certainly have another W in his column, the game against the Dodgers where he left with a 6-1 lead after six, but the bullpen couldn't hold it. That extra victory would have put him on pace for 12, right there or thereabouts. After this afternoon's performance, I think this one's still too close to call.
J.J. Putz - Total Saves 35½ (350-3193). Pace: 36 - OVER.
Finally. I found myself humming Men at Work songs while writing the preceding paragraphs, there was just so much damn under going on. But with a dozen saves to date, Putz is the sole member of the Diamondbacks who is actually surpassing Vegas's pre-season expectations. The ERA hasn't been pretty, but that's not an issue here. What could be, is the possibility of him being yanked from the closer's role if he continues to struggle - and even when he has succeeded, there have been a lot less 1-2-3 outings, or at least so it seems (it's late, I'm not checking!). However, right now, he's a solitary outpost of over-achievement.
So what does that mean for the overall standings?
|Dallas D'back Fan||900|
|4 Corners Fan||-1,000|
As you can see, the 'Pit are still deep in debt, though the numbers have somewhat improved since last time. We're about three grand less in the hole, the improvement mostly the result of Hill's lack of home-runs recently. deerhaven remains the leader, thanks to relentless pessimism, but Dallas D'back Fan AND Liamneeson move up into second and third, as their large wagers on Hill move to the right side of the board. Down at the bottom, there are five people who are still staring a complete wipe-out in the face, with all their bets currently on the wrong side of the fence.
We'll be back after game #81 with a further update, which is July 4th. Hopefully, a couple more of the D-backs can help their fans out of debt between now and then.