"Feels like every game we have lost recently has been by one run," Tweeted Daniel Hudson last night. And he's right, as that was Arizona's third straight game, and fourth loss on this road-trip, by the smallest of margins. Given we only had a single such defeat during the first 30 games, it kinda stands out. However, it's more of a regression to the mean than anything. A quarter of our losses (five of 20) are now by one run, which is almost exactly the same ratio as last year (23 of 97). That's actually a little low - last year, 30.2% of NL losses were like that, with most teams somewhere between a quarter and a third. So there might be more to come.
However, it is a somewhat worrying omen...
If you look back to the last time we had such a streak of narrow defeats, it was when we lost four one-run games in a row, during the disastrous 10-game losing streak last season that basically ended any hopes for the year. That streak also a) started in May, and b) covered a nine-game road trip against three of our NL West rivals. So we're certain to lose. On the other hand, we're definitely going to win this one, thereby maintaining the previously-noted ratio of four wins and five defeats, for the fourth consecutive block of nine games.
Therefore, whatever happens: I told you so. I love it when I can confidently predict both sides of a result.
- Kelly Johnson 2B
- Gerardo Parra CF
- Xavier Nady LF
- Stephen Drew SS
- Justin Upton RF
- Russell Branyan 1B
- Ryan Roberts 3B
- Miguel Montero C
- Daniel Hudson RHP
Nady in the three-hole. No, really. A man with a .611 OPS, in the spot which should be for your best hitter. Okay. Whatever. We'll see how that works out...