Gameday Thread, #149: 9/19 vs. Rockies

Jason Hammel RHP, 8-8, 4.38

Max Scherzer RHP, 9-9, 4.05

Games until the blessed, merciful end of the season: 14.

It's odd how the mind works. Looking over at the in- and post-game comments on Purple Row, a sense of doom and futility permeated them, which seemed odd for a team 2.5 games ahead in the wild-card race. coolstandings.com currently gives them a 73% chance of post-season baseball. That is, however, cold statistics and doesn't take into account "intangibles" like momentum - which the Rockies rode to the World Series in 2007, but which now threatens to derail them.

Diamondbacks' fans experienced something similar on a small scale last night, during the ninth inning: after the first three batters reached off Gutierrez, a blown save seemed inevitable. But fangraphs.com tells us that our Win Probability never sunk below 72% - basically the same as the Rockies' playoff chances - at any time. I know it certainly did feel like we were odds-on favorites there. That said, losing last night was a hammer-blow for Colorado, especially against a pitcher making his second major-league start. Nice to be on the giving end of a defeat like that for a change.

That was the soft underbelly of the rotation, and in the next two days, they get to face considerably tougher pitchers than Mulvey - ones who, I certainly hope, won't give the opposition four runs over the first three innings. After looking like he was waning in August, Max has come back with three solid starts in September, posting an ERA of 2.61. The strikeouts are down - only a dozen over those 20.2 innings - but if he can maintain a WHIP below one, then how he gets his outs becomes less significant. I am a little surprised to see him pitching today, as he has gone well past his career-high workload. I hope this doesn't backfire in 2010.

It's the fourth time Max has faced Colorado in his career and, while the results have not been great (ten ER in 16 IP), all three previouis games were at Coors. Hammel got a no-decision against the Diamondbacks on September 4th, allowing four runs in six innings, in a game Arizona lost in the eighth. He has also been pretty solid of late, with an ERA in the past month of 3.29. However, the Diamondbacks finally broke their long taco-famine last night, with a little help from Hawpe, and I'm hoping we see some more of those tonight.

Line-up

1. Chris Young CF
2. Stephen Drew SS
3. Justin Upton RF
4. Miguel Montero C
5. Mark Reynolds 3B
6. Gerardo Parra LF
7. Ryan Roberts 2B
8. Brandon Allen 1B
9. Max Scherzer P

And a poll raises the interesting question: who (if anyone) are you rooting for in the wild-card race? There's no doubt the Giants will be desperate for us to win again today, having already had their asses kicked badly by the Dodgers this afternoon [eight innings, zero earned runs for Jon Garland; f-bomb count in the first McC open thread = 47...] Atlanta and Florida are about to get under way at the time I am posting this. Here's to us keeping it interesting...