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Matt Cain = vastly over-rated. If you just looked at his ERA, you'd think the guy has been phenomenal this year. However, his Batting Average on Balls in Play is easily the best in the majors at .120 - 25 points better than the next man, and far below the expected average, which is usually .290-.300. Basically, he's been insanely lucky so far: DIPS, a defense-independent ERA, moves him all the way up to 4.37, again, the biggest jump in the majors. The wheels are overdue to fall off the Matt Cain bandwagon. Tonight would seem a good time.
By popular demand (okay, I forgot last time), we announce the return of the "things to watch for" section. Whenever Mrs. SnakePit and I go to a game, I come up with a set of eight predictions for what we want to happen (the obvious "win" is taken as read), and we see how many of those come true. Here are tonight's expectations:
- The roof should be open
- O-Dawg celebrates his Golden Glove by getting at least one hit
- Quality start from EdGon
- Homer by one of the Young Bloods (Quentin, Drew, Young or Montero)
- No GIDPs by Arizona
- Bonds kept in the park
- Multi-hit game for Jackson
- Bullpen with ERA below 3.00 tonight.
Feel free to make predictions of your own too. Getting this one up very early, since the plan is to beat the rush by going downtown around 5pm, then snag a free parking spot, get some dinner, and take it gently as we head to the game. Always nice to beat the Giants. Particularly nice to take the series this evening, and give us the chance at sweeping them tomorrow, as they swept us by the Bay. And amazingly nice to do it while we're there: last time's game was pretty miserable, a 5-1 loss to the Dodgers in which we didn't play well at all.
Curiously, EdGon started that game as well. But this might be his last outing, however: Micah Owings gets his rehab appearance for Tucson tonight, and if all goes well will be eligible to come off the DL on May 3rd, just in time for his/EdGon's next start. So, this evening, EdGon could be playing for his spot in the rotation. Last time, he was excellent, very unluckily losing 1-0 to Barry Zito, so let's hope he can be just as good this time. Another such outing might not make the upcoming decision on who's our #5 any easier, but that would certainly be a nice dilemma to have: which of our above-NL average starters do we keep in the rotation?