clock menu more-arrow no yes

Back at the start of the season, I ran a series of polls on Diamondbacks' performance, both as a team and individually, and also a series of community projections to predict specific figures. Here is where I dig out the results of those exercises in prophecy, so we can all have a good laugh at how wrong we you were. ;-)

Highest Batting Average

  1. Chad Tracy 66%
  2. Conor Jackson 15%
  3. Luis Gonzalez 8%

[Reality: Jackson, .291; Orlando Hudson, .287; Tracy, .281] The slump of Tracy's average caught readers by surprise, as did the startling improvement of Hudson. Almost everyone expected Chad to be at or above .300, building on the success of 2004; for him to regress, both in average and power, probably ranks as the biggest disappointment of the year. Jackson may have been disappointed with his first season, but qualms about his defense aside, I don't think many fans were. Estrada did hit over .300, but didn't muster enough bats to qualify in this category.

Most Home Runs

  1. Chad Tracy 61%
  2. Luis Gonzalez 19%
  3. Shawn Green 9%

[Reality: Eric Byrnes, 26; Tracy, 20; three tied with 15] Byrnes' victory came from so far back that he wasn't even listed as an option in the original poll. Two people did go for 'A.N.Other', but there's no way to tell if they meant Byrnes or someone else. It was a surprise, well above his previous high of 20; only once had he hit more than a dozen. And it wasn't even the Chase Effect: 14 homers came on the road, led by three in 15 at-bats in Shea. He must, however, increase his production next year in left, if he's not to become a sucking black hole of production at his new position.

Starter with Most Wins

  1. Brandon Webb: 80%
  2. A.N.Other: 10%
  3. Orlando Hernandez: 6%

[Reality: Webb, 16; Claudio Vargas, 12; Miguel Batista, 11] Well, at least we got this one right, though predicting Webb to have most wins is hardly an act of preternatural prognostication - roll out those 15-letter words! Mind you, anyone who said Vargas would have second-most deserves a pat on the back, though he was one of only three pitchers to make more than 18 starts. Cruz + EnGon was basically our 4th starter, with the last one a patchwork of Los Dos Hermanos Hernandez, EdGon and the Huge Manatee, plus three starts from Nippert and Jarvis.

Reliever with Best ERA

  1. Valverde: 40%
  2. Bajenaru: 21%
  3. Medders: 19%

[Reality (min. 30 IP): Vizcaino, 3.58; Medders, 3.64; Julio, 3.83] Okay, who had Valverde at 5.84? In his defence, if you take out June, it drops to 3.96. Credit to two people who said Vizcaino would be #1, and well done to Medders for a solid year. Surprised to see Julio as high as third, despite our low opinion of him: he will probably be too expensive to get back for next year. On results so far, we definitely lost that trade, with Hernandez v1.0 going 9-7 with a 4.09 ERA for the Mets down the stretch, and scheduled to start playoff Game 1, though that seems in doubt at time of writing.

How Many Wins for AZ?

  1. 76-80: 38%
  2. 81-85: 38%
  3. 71-75: 16%

[Reality: 76 wins] It's probably no surprise that AZ fans erred a little on the side of optimism, with the median guess being probably high-70's. But it's probably also true to say that this season came around about as expected by most people. Stephen was the closest to call an actual figure, saying we'd win 77. However, he blotted his copybook a little, by saying we'd be get better after the All-Star break - we went 33-41, compared to 43-45 before it. However, there was also a poll on "Who Will Win the NL West in 2007?", and Arizona won that one with 52%. Will that come to pass? We'll see...

Community Projections

Here's where we start getting specific. I asked readers to come up their estimates for each player: BA/OBP/SLG, plus HR and RBI. We can now compare these with their actual level of production (for Shawn Green, I've aggregated his stats with Arizona and New York).

                 BA  OBP  SLG  OPS HR RBI
Johnny Estrada .276 .334 .407 .741  8  57
Actual         .302 .328 .444 .772 11  71
-----------------------------------------
Chris Snyder   .227 .308 .363 .671  6  21
Actual         .277 .349 .424 .773  6  32
-----------------------------------------
Conor Jackson  .271 .362 .423 .786  9  55
Actual         .291 .368 .441 .809 15  79
-----------------------------------------
Tony Clark     .260 .327 .516 .843 16  58
Actual         .197 .279 .364 .643  6  16
-----------------------------------------
Orlando Hudson .276 .336 .415 .761 11  59
Actual         .287 .354 .454 .809 15  67
-----------------------------------------
Craig Counsell .243 .330 .362 .692  4  22
Actual         .255 .327 .347 .674  4  30
-----------------------------------------
Chad Tracy     .309 .368 .506 .874 31  92
Actual         .281 .343 .451 .794 20  80
-----------------------------------------
Luis Gonzalez  .261 .354 .436 .790 20  72
Actual         .271 .352 .444 .795 15  73
-----------------------------------------
Eric Byrnes    .264 .332 .435 .767 14  50
Actual         .267 .313 .482 .795 26  79
-----------------------------------------
Shawn Green    .279 .358 .472 .830 22  76
Actual         .277 .344 .432 .776 15  66
-----------------------------------------
Jeff Davanon   .265 .349 .378 .727  2  13
Actual         .290 .371 .448 .819  5  35

I think we can claim hits for Gonzalez and Counsell (within 20 points of OPS), and credible misses (20-50 OPS) for Byrnes, Jackson, Hudson and Estrada. The rest...well, we were pessimistic for Snyder and Davanon, optimistic for Clark, Green and Tracy. It will be interesting to repeat this operation next season - especially given the large number of rookies, I suspect projections will be hard, since we have much less information on which to work. Will Quentin learn to hit breaking balls? Can Drew continue to bat over .300? How these questions are answered, so probably go the 2007 Diamondbacks...