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Apr 10, 2008 Nov 30, 2008 804 2482

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Mizzou Links, 12-1-08

A somewhat abbreviated Links today, as I'm off work today and sleeping in...and we're keeping this one positive, so...no KU links, and no soon-to-be-OU-destruction links...

Christensen-to-Wyoming Links!

  • First things first, Dave Matter reported late last night that Christensen will stick around for the Big 12 Championship and bowl game.
  • The Trib: Christensen headed to Wyoming
    Wyoming has been the launching pad for several former head coaches who went on to have successful careers elsewhere, including Bob Devaney, Pat Dye, Dennis Erickson and Joe Tiller. Joe Glenn had been the Cowboys coach since 2003 but was fired last Sunday after compiling a 30-41 record in six seasons at the Mountain West Conference program. Wyoming had one winning season under Glenn, a 7-5 finish in 2004. Wyoming has been part of the Mountain West since 1999 and prior to that played in Western Athletic Conference since 1962.
  • Laramie Boomerang: Mizzou Asst. Head Coach Wyoming Bound
    Christensen’s offense produced no fewer than three major national awards candidates. Then junior quarterback Chase Daniel was a Heisman Trophy finalist (finishing fourth in final Heisman voting), while senior tight end Martin Rucker and freshman wide receiver Jeremy Maclin were both consensus First Team All-Americans, marking the first time in MU history it has had two consensus first teamers in a single year.
  • Post-Dispatch: Christensen to Wyoming; Eberflus interviews at Toledo
    It's unclear whether any MU assistants will leave with Christensen, nor or it evident who will ascend to his job. Insiders believe the most obvious candidates internally would be quarterbacks coach David Yost, who has been with Pinkel since 1996, and receivers coach Andy Hill, the former Tiger receiver who came aboard the coaching staff with Larry Smith and now is in his 13th season at MU.
  • And while we're at it...Toledo Blade: UT likely to interview Eberflus
    Eberflus, 38, is a Whitmer High School graduate. UT athletic director Mike O'Brien hopes to make a hire by early December. Other possible candidates are thought to be Arizona defensive coordinator Mark Stoops and former Iowa State coach Dan McCarney.

Oral Roberts Links!

  • The Missourian: Lyons helps Tigers hold off Oral Roberts
  • The Trib: Lyons, Carroll too much for Oral Roberts
  • KC Star: Lyons & Carroll star in Mizzou win

Also, a quick programming note: I normally post a weekly Big 12 BTBS wrap-up on Mondays and MU game wrap-up on Tuesday...it's all getting bumped back a day.  Expect an Oral Roberts box score wrap-up later today, though.  I know you don't want to miss that!

Poll
Dave Christensen will remain Mizzou's offensive coordinator for the next month or so. Right move?

  61 votes | Results

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Quick thoughts on MU-KU...

I'm sure Ross will post some thoughts at some point as well, but in the meantime...

* This just wasn't the season we thought it would be.  Plain and simple.  One thing I hate doing is determining blame, so I'll leave that to others.  As a fan, all I can say is, the bounces didn't go our way in big moments this year, and while Mizzou fans should almost never be disappointed with 9-3, this was the one year where 9-3 felt like a bit of a failure.

* Of course, next week we get a chance to make everybody forget this moment by doing something amazing.  It probably won't happen, but that is a good reminder of something else: we won our second straight North title this year.  Bears mentioning.

* I don't know why our blitz hasn't worked this year, but...our blitz hasn't worked this year.  Our defensive line generates a decent pass rush, but I can't think of many times where a big blitz produced a big play.  Today was obviously no different.  Strategically, I think blitzing on 4th-and-7 was the correct aggressive play.  But it's hard to completely agree with the call since the blitz has been so ineffective.  I'd like to think our blitz gets better next year with missiles like Ebner and Gachkar getting more familiar with the defense and more involved, but...we'll see.

* I've already seen other sites saying how Mizzou "choked" this game away.  I just don't see it.  We sucked in the first half, held it together, came back in the second half, and it became a "who gets the ball last?" situation.  Todd Reesing outdueled Chase Daniel, KU played its best game of the year and won a big rivalry game at the last second...I guess I just reserve the word "choke" for more extreme situations than this.

* I can't give Todd Reesing enough credit for this effort.  He was pretty damn mediocre the last couple of times I saw him play, but he was on tonight.  What makes it more impressive is, we hit him...a lot.

* Chase Coffman = balls.  A couple of times, instead of trying to slow down once he started running, he just fell down.  He was clearly in pain...about half-speed...and he caught six balls and 2 TDs.  I'm really gonna miss the Flying Nunchuk.  Clearly he's not going to be 100% next week (for the second straight Big 12 title game), but I just hope he's healed for the bowl game...just so I get one last chance to watch him fly around.

* I wrote a lot about 2009 earlier this week, and I'm at least partially optimistic about Mizzou's chances thanks to the OL and Derrick Washington...but obviously Reesing/Briscoe/Meier (and Stuckey) will have something to say about that.

* Does this mean we can retire the gold jerseys?

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Mizzou-Kansas: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

You didn't think I forgot about the BTBS preview, did you?

KU

Opp.

Mizzou

Opp.

68.8% % Close 52.5%
49.7% 50.3% Field Position % 55.1% 44.9%
71.3% 65.9% Leverage % 76.8% 68.5%
Total
795 780 Plays 762 826
313.43 292.05 EqPts 392.41 265.57
47.6% 41.8% Success Rate 56.8% 42.1%
0.39 0.37 PPP 0.51 0.32
0.870 0.792 S&P 1.083 0.743
Close Games
528 555 Plays 453. 381
218.59 212.79 EqPts 228.79 119.84
47.9% 43.1% Success Rate 57.6% 42.8%
0.41 0.38 PPP 0.51 0.31
0.893 0.814 S&P 1.081 0.742
Rushing
115.92 105.62 EqPts 145.56 91.46
49.4% 39.4% Success Rate 52.0% 40.6%
0.33 0.33 PPP 0.46 0.25
0.820 0.728 S&P 0.977 0.659
3.35 2.71 Line Yds/carry 3.13 2.73
Passing
197.51 186.44 EqPts 246.84 174.12
46.0% 43.4% Success Rate 60.3% 43.3%
0.45 0.40 PPP 0.56 0.38
0.910 0.837 S&P 1.160 0.809
5.9% 4.3% Sack Rate 2.2% 5.4%
Non-Passing Downs
51.7% 46.5% Success Rate 61.5% 47.1%
0.38 0.37 PPP 0.55 0.32
0.895 0.831 S&P 1.162 0.794
5.3% 3.9% Sack Rate 1.6% 4.1%
53.8% 50.4% Run Rate 47.9% 52.8%
Passing Downs
37.4% 33.0% Success Rate 41.7% 31.6%
0.43 0.39 PPP 0.41 0.32
0.807 0.720 S&P 0.830 0.636
6.8% 4.8% Sack Rate 3.6% 7.1%
23.4% 23.5% Run Rate 23.5% 26.7%
Turnovers
19 21 Total 17 19
43.19 61.28 Points Lost 48.11 45.63
46.04 50.30 Points Given 34.23 71.73
89.23 111.58 Total T/O Pts 82.34 117.36
+22.35 -22.35 T/O Pts Margin/Gm +35.02 -35.02

Thoughts after the jump...

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Hate Week: YouTube Edition (Day #5)

Naturally, Armageddon at Arrowhead I.





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Hate Week: YouTube Edition (Day #4)

Mizzou vs Kansas, 2006

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Mizzou Basketball: Beyond the Box Score?

That's right...in the absence of a football game to review from last weekend (I could just review OU-TT instead, but...I think you know what the stats say about that one), I'm going to dip my toe back into basketball stats...see what Mizzou's stats say about the team's prospects after five games...

With all the stats here, there is obviously a 'strength of schedule' qualifier.  60% of Mizzou's games thus far have been against complete and total cupcakes (Prairie View A&M, Chattanooga, THE STAGS OF FAIRFIELD).  But the other two games have been against a) a team that was ranked at the time (but isn't as good as their then-ranking) and b) a team that became ranked the week after they played (and has proven quite a bit now).  In other words, real teams.But all in all, the stats are obviously going to be inflated a bit, so keep that in mind.

Offense

For the season, Mizzou's averaging 86.0 PPG on 47% shooting.  Against the two "real" teams on the schedule, that's 77.0 PPG on 49% shooting.  Taking DeMarre Carroll's ridiculously hot shooting against USC out of the equation, those numbers obviously go down quite a bit.  We're obviously still dealing with small sample size here, but there is a WIDE range of FG %'s on this team right now.

Mizzou FG% and Points Per Shot
All Games vs XU, USC
Player FG% PPS PPG FG% PPS PPG
DeMarre Carroll 61.2 1.51 20.2 60.0 1.53 23.0
Leo Lyons 56.4 1.56 17.2 52.6 1.47 14.0
Matt Lawrence 37.8 1.14 8.4 20.0 0.60 4.5
J.T. Tiller 48.4 1.32 8.2 52.6 1.59 13.5
Marcus Denmon 34.4 0.97 6.2 25.0 0.75 3.0
Miguel Paul 41.7 1.17 5.6 42.9 1.00 3.5
Kim English 29.0 0.84 5.2 75.0 1.50 3.0
Keith Ramsey 57.1 1.50 4.2 50.0 1.38 5.5
Justin Safford 63.6 1.73 3.8 66.7 2.00 3.0
Zaire Taylor 30.0 0.95 3.8 50.0 1.33 4.0
ALL 47.0 1.28 86.0 48.7 1.32 77.0

Just think how good those numbers could be if we hadn't shot only 54% from the free-throw line against USC and XU!  DeMarre and Leo would both be up toward 1.75 points per shot.

Overall, Mizzou is averaging 1.17 points per possession right now, 1.15 in the two real games.  As a reference point...

Mizzou Points Per Possession, recent history

2007-08: 1.07
2006-07: 1.06
2005-06: 0.99
2004-05: 0.99
2003-04: 1.08

The last time Mizzou averaged as much as 1.10 points per possession was 1989-90, and we will obviously see this number fall as the season progresses.  It is, however, at least encouraging to see the per-possession numbers that high against the two real teams, especially considering that a) Xavier's a good defensive team, and b) we shot FTs like crap.

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The Fog of '09 - South Defenses

Defensive Lines

  1. Oklahoma (DEs Auston English & Jeremy Beal, DTs Gerald McCoy & DeMarcus Granger)
  2. Texas Tech (DTs Colby Whitlock & Richard Jones, DEs Brandon Williams & McKinner Dixon)
  3. Oklahoma State (DEs Ugo Chinasa, Derek Burton)
  4. Texas (DT Lamarr Houston, DEs Sam Acho & Eddie Jones)
  5. Baylor (DT Trey Bryant, DE Jason Lamb)
  6. Texas A&M (DTs Lucas Patterson & Tony Jerod-Eddie)

That's right, all four of OU's DL starters (plus DT Adrian Taylor) return.  Granted, any of them could choose to go pro, but a) I doubt it, and b) if so I'd still probably have OU's line #1.

Linebackers

  1. Oklahoma (Travis Lewis, Ryan Reynolds, Austin Box)
  2. Texas (Sergio Kindle--for now, Roddrick Muckelroy, Jared Norton)
  3. Oklahoma State (Orie Lemon, Patrick Lavine, Andre Sexton)
  4. Texas Tech (Brian Duncan, Marlon Williams, Bront Bird)
  5. Baylor (Joe Pawelek, Antonio Jones, Antonio Johnson)
  6. Texas A&M (Von Miller, Anthony Lewis, Garrick Williams)

Seriously, OU is going to have BY FAR the best front seven in the conference.  Their offense might struggle from time to time, but they'll still be in the South hunt because of a stud defense.  Beyond OU, there's pretty much a logjam.  If Sergio Kindle decides to go pro, then UT's LBs possibly fall to about #4 or #5 because OSU, Tech and Baylor all return pretty competent units almost intact.

Defensive Backs

  1. Texas (CBs Chykie Brown & Deon Beasley, Ss Earl Thomas & Blake Gideon)
  2. Oklahoma (CBs Dominique Franks, Brian Jackson)
  3. Baylor (S Jordan Lake, CB Antareis Bryan)
  4. Texas Tech (CBs Jamar Wall & Brent Nickerson)
  5. Texas A&M (CB Jordan Pugh, S Jordan Peterson)
  6. Oklahoma State (CB Perrish Cox, ...?)

Texas aside, everybody's secondary takes a step backwards.  The Longhorn secondary, however, will be STOUT.

South Defenses, 2009

  1. Oklahoma (17)
  2. Texas (14)
  3. Texas Tech (11)
  4. Oklahoma State (9)
  5. Baylor (8)
  6. Texas A&M (4)

I'm starting to get the indication that Mike Sherman's second year at ATM won't be much better than his first.  ATM is young, and they'll have some talent, but at some point they fell a step (or more) behind everybody else in the South.

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Hate Week: YouTube Edition (Day #3)

M-I-Z...

M-I-Z...

And with no segway...Corey Tate.

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Rock M Roundtable!

1 - Ahh, Hate Week.  I probably asked the same question last year, but...quick: give me your favorite MU-KU memory (of any sport).

2 - What % chance does an underdog KU team have of beating MU at Arrowhead on Saturday?

3 - What % chance does an underdog OSU team have of beating OU in Stillwater on Saturday?

4 - Where does Mizzou end up bowl-tripping this year?

5 - Finally, basketball.  After this past week's games, are you more optimistic or less optimistic about your team's chances for success this season?

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The Fog of '09 - South Offenses

Quarterbacks

  1. Oklahoma (Sam Bradford--for now; if not...?)
  2. Texas (Colt McCoy--for now; if not...John Chiles?)
  3. Oklahoma State (Zac Robinson)
  4. Baylor (Hot Tub Griffin III)
  5. Texas Tech (Taylor Potts)
  6. Texas A&M (Jerrod Johnson)

Obviously, there's a lot of "if" here.  If Bradford's gone, OU falls to #6 because they don't have another QB who's taken a single snap.  If McCoy's gone, you figure Chiles gets the first shot at the job, and while he's decent, UT still falls to #5 on this list.

Running Backs

  1. Oklahoma State (Kendall Hunter, Keith Toston)
  2. Oklahoma (DeMarco Murray, Chris Brown)
  3. Texas (Fozzy Whitaker, Vondrell McGee)
  4. Texas Tech (Baron Batch, Aaron Crawford)
  5. Baylor (Jay Finley, Jeremy Sanders)
  6. Texas A&M (Mike Goodson--for now; if not...Bradley Stephens?)

I firmly expect Goodson to go pro if he's healthy enough for the combine.  Even with him, though, it appears that every other South team has better depth at RB than ATM.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

  1. Oklahoma State (Dez Bryant, Damian Davis, DeMarcus Connor)
  2. Texas (Malcolm Williams, Dan Buckner, Brandon Collins)
  3. Texas Tech (Detron Lewis, Edward Britton, Tramain Swindall)
  4. Texas A&M (Jeff Fuller, Ryan Tannehill, Terrence McCoy)
  5. Oklahoma (Ryan Broyles, Brandon Caleb, Jameel Owens)
  6. Baylor (David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Kendall Wright)

I am 99.999% sure Michael Crabtree is going pro, so we're not even going to pretend with an "If he's still at Tech" scenario.  He's gone.  As are a lot of the other proven WRs in the South.  OSU ends up on top here, though Texas almost looks to have a better WR corps next year despite losing Cosby and Shipley.  OU's unit could be solid, and you know they have plenty of good recruits to plug in the holes, but losing Iglesias and Manny Johnson will hurt them.  Broyles could be a major stud, though.

Offensive Lines

  1. Texas (OT Adam Ulatoski, C Chris Hall, OT Kyle Hix)
  2. Oklahoma State (OT Russell Okung, OT Brady Bond, OG Andrew Lewis)
  3. Texas A&M (OT Michael Shumard, OG Evan Eike, C Kevin Matthews)
  4. Texas Tech (OT Marlon Winn, OG Brandon Carter, ...?)
  5. Oklahoma (OT Trent Williams, ...?)
  6. Baylor (OG James Barnard, C JD Walton, OG Chris Griesenbeck)

It might behoove Sam Bradford to seriously think about entering the NFL draft this coming year...as his stock could fall in the '10 draft after running for his life all season long in '09.  You know OU's O-line will still be reasonably competent, but this appears to be a 2005-esque rebuilding year for OU in the trenches.

South Offenses, 2009

  1. Oklahoma State (21)
  2. Texas (20)
  3. Oklahoma (15)
  4. Texas Tech (12)
  5. Texas A&M (9)
  6. Baylor (7)

You know Tech and OU (if Bradford comes back) will have competent offenses in 2009--they just will.  But continuity at OSU and UT appear to give them edges here.

If Colt McCoy goes pro

  1. Oklahoma State (22)
  2. Texas (17)
  3. Oklahoma (15)
  4. Texas Tech (13)
  5. Texas A&M (9)
  6. Baylor (8)

If Sam Bradford goes pro

  1. Oklahoma State (22)
  2. Texas (21)
  3. Texas Tech (13)
  4. Oklahoma (10)
  5. Texas A&M (10)
  6. Baylor (8)

If McCoy AND Bradford go pro

  1. Oklahoma State (23)
  2. Texas (18)
  3. Texas Tech (14)
  4. Oklahoma (10)
  5. Texas A&M (10)
  6. Baylor (9)

This does show the strength of the South--Baylor's got their most exciting QB, possibly ever, and ATM has a nice, young QB with some nice, young WRs...and they're still bringing up the rear in just about every scenario.

One thing's for certain: Mike Gundy better start googling "How to handle the hype" right now, because I see no way OSU isn't a preseason Top 6-8 team next year.

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