We'll find out today.

What Do We Have?
How Much Money Do We Have to Spend?

It's assumed that Adam Everett and Eddie Guardado won't be offered arbitration.  Neither one would return a compensatory draft pick, and their retention would be doing the Twins no favors in terms of talent nor fiscal responsibility.

Which brings us to our final two free agents:  Dennys Reyes and Nick Punto.

I can see the Twins going either way, on both of these guys.  Both have roles they could play on next year's club, and both have been lucky enough to have the organization state that they'd like to retain them.  So today we'll see exactly how accurate those assertations were.  The primary, and really the only, difference between Reyes and Punto is that Eat at Dennys qualified as a Type-B free agent.  Since Punto hasn't qualified, there's really nothing to make the Twins feel like they need to get into the arbitration process with him.  Minnesota can bring Punto back quite easily without having to expresss interest by today.  Kelly Theiser agrees.

Today's excitement, then, will come from finding out by 11pm Central tonight whether the Twins have offered Dennys Reyes arbitration.  It's not exactly The Johan Sweepstakes, Part II.

Ultimately, whether any of these guys come back or not won't have a big impact on the team's successes (or lack thereof) in 2009.  Today is about roster spots, and the possibility of a sandwich pick next June.

via www.bestdentalanswers.com

One last hurrah?

Last Wednesday, Jerry Crasnick over at ESPN only gave Nomah a 26% chance of playing in 2009.  He points to last winter, when a number of the game's stalwarts were unable to find jobs--guys like Kenny Lofton, Sammy Sosa and, of course, all-time home run record holder Barry Bonds.  This year's crop of veteran ambassadors to the game is no less prestigious, with the futures of Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Thomas and Moises Alou in the balance, but if any of them were to find a job with the Twins, Nomar Garciaparra might be the only one with anything to offer.

Before we even get to what he has to offer, there's the miniature obstacle of his health.  Garciaparra gravitates toward the disabled list, like Nick Punto to the kid's table at Thanksgiving.  He hasn't played a full season since 2003, and over the last five seasons has averaged 88 games a year.  Just to drive the point home, as far as I can tell this is a complete list of his trips to the DL since 2004.

March 31 - June 9, 2004:  Right Achilles Tendonitis
April 21 - August 5, 2005:  Torn Left Groin Muscle
April 4 - April 22, 2006:  Strained Ribcage Muscle
July 30 - August 9, 2006:  Right Knee Sprain
August 14 - September 4, 2007:  Strained Left Calf
March 30 - April 16, 2008:  Microfracture in Right Hand
April 26 - July 4, 2008:  Strained Left Calf
August 1 - August 12, 2008:  Strained Medial Collateral Ligament

Turning 36 in July, and after three stints on the disabled list in 2008, is it worth using that 25th roster spot for a guy who might be better serving his career by riding off into the sunset?  Maybe not, but there's a definitive role he could fill, and it's an area of need for the Twins.

Over the last three years, Garciaparra has hit southpaws to the tune of .289/.368/.502, with 11 home runs in 235 at-bats.  Whatever the case is, he's been seeing the ball better from left-handed pitchers, because he's not only hitting for more power but he has better strike zone control as well (29 walks against just 20 strikeouts).  So knowing what we know about his history of injuries, how could the Twins protect him, and still find a role for him?

That's where it gets tricky, because guys of Nomar's stature aren't always keen to play platoon and mentor roles and that's really the only role he'd be playing for the Twins.  He wouldn't get any starts against right-handed pitchers, wouldn't get more than a handful of starts in the field, and as a result would be looking at a season of maybe 250 plate appearances tops...85% of which he'd be getting through starts versus southpaws as a designated hitter.  The rest would come through late game pinch-hitting opportunities and, when absolutely necessary, maybe a couple of starts in the field.

Finally, there's the issue of money.  For all of this to work, Garciaparra would have to not only be willing to take a diminished role on an up-and-coming club, but he'd have to be willing to accept a reasonable contract as a result.  I'd offer one year for $2 million, plus incentives for playing time and results.

There are a number of good decisions for this organization to make over the next three or four months.  I'm not convinced that signing Nomar (NOMAH!) Garciaparra is one of those good decisions, but at the right price he's still an interesting consideration.

Well, let's go through the rules first.  I'm going to take it for granted that you understand players on the 40-Man roster are protected.

Really, the biggest and most basic thing you should know is that players 18 or younger (when drafted or signed) are exempt from the Rule 5 draft for five years; players 19 or older are exempt for four years.  There are different costs associated with how the drafting team in the Rule 5 uses their picks, and there are rules about how long players must be active in order to be eligible for the draft, but to begin to scan for players left exposed by the Twins this is all we need for now.

In previous years the Twins have used the Rule 5 draft to grab guys like Ryan-Rowland Smith and Alejandro Machado.  Of course we know the Twins scored big with Johan Santana (in the long long ago of 2000), but thanks to Wikipedia, there are a number of guys who have posted some good (or at the very least, star-crossed and useful) careers after being taken in the Rule 5:  Bobby Bonilla, Shane Mack, George Bell, Dave Hollins, and Willie Hernandez.  More recently, in addition to Santana, Shane Victorino and Josh Hamilton have been selections.

Last week after the Twins made seven more additions to their 40-Man roster, leaving just one open slot, a lot of guys were put in a position of instability.  Minnesota's farm system stocks more talent this off-season than it has in recent memory, and for the first time in as long as I can remember there will be a position player or two that I'm concerned could get taken.

A team can never cover all of its assets, but in one sense it's a good problem to have.  Nevertheless there are a number of prospects exposed, and with the Rule 5 approaching with the Winter Meetings in December, the Twins are leaving some tempting bait on the hook.

Jay Rainville, RHP
2009 Age:  23
Drafted:  1st Round, 2004

Rainville had a good start, rolling through his first three stops in roughly his first 14 months in the Minnesota system.  Baseball American ranked him as the Twins' 8th best prospect going into 2006, which was also the year he lost completely due to surgery on his shoulder.  He had a good comeback year in 2007 in Fort Myers, and after hot start there in '08 was promoted to double-A New Britain.  As a 22-year old there he struggled sometimes, posting a 5.78 ERA in 123 innings, but in addition to his strikeouts dropping and continuing to be a fly-ball pitcher, he also lost a bit of his command.  Rainville doesn't project as a front-line starter by any stretch of the imagination right now, but he's still a very talented arm.  A year ago I might have predicted he'd debut for the Twins sometime late in 2009.  Now I'd probably push that back to 2010, but a strong campaign this next summer could alter that as well.  Jay is just one of the pitchers I'd have preferred to be added to the 40-Man roster in place of Drew Butera.

Erik Lis, 1B/LF
2009 Age:  25
Drafted:  9th Round, 2005

Out of the position players available in the Minnesota farm system, Lis is the one that could be drawing the most interest.  In college he was a hitting machine, and even in his first two stops with the Twins the power was on full display.  In '07 in Fort Myers he had a decent season, and as a result spent all of last summer in New Britain.  He didn't display the power in terms of home runs, but the bigger concern for me was how often he was (or wasn't) getting on base.  While the walk rates continued to drop, the strikeout rates were sneaking higher.  He hit a lot of ground balls this season, and he hasn't been a guy who hits a lot of line drives, either.  Lis did miss the last portion of the season with a shoulder injury, so there is some forgiveness.  But with no defense to speak of, his bat is his ticket to success.  At 24 he wasn't young for double-A, and he didn't exactly rake there, so it's not as though the Twins are exposing a can't-miss prospect...but he's still a hitter, and hitters are always in demand.  I'd still prefer to see what he could do in Rochester.

Kyle Waldrop, RHP
2009 Age:  23
Drafted:  1st Round, 2004

With this move it seems the Twins have given up on the compensatory pick they drafted after losing LaTroy Hawkins.  Waldrop missed all of 2008 with shoulder issues, which means his 59 innings in double-A back in '07 as a 21-year old could be the last vision the organization has of him.  And that vision wasn't really promising.  A 5.34 ERA in those 59 innings, along with 74 hits, is a shame to have as a departing audition because in spite of his mediocre stuff had been effective in prior stops.  He's not a strikeout guy, but when healthy had good control and did a pretty solid job of keeping the ball in the park.  I think it's too early to give up on Waldrop, as I believe his skills could be useful at the back of a rotation or in the bullpen, but I have to think that if he's taken he will simply be a casualty of a farm system that's littered with pitching prospects.

Yohan Pino, RHP
2009 Age:  25
Signed:  Venezuela, 2004

Pino's curious success has hit a stumbling block at double-A.  The strikeouts are down as better hitters aren't as baffled by a sub-par fastball, and he's been getting knocked around a little bit.  Without great stuff and at 25, he'll be too old for any success to really make an imprint unless he would be moved to Rochester next year, but with the Twins constantly moving him from the rotation to the bullpen and back again it's clear that even they don't know what to do with him.  Everything has been stood on its head since his promotion to the Rock Cats, and his exposure doesn't bother me as much as it does with a few of these other pitchers, but I also believe that consistency and confidence can do a lot for a player.  An organization showing a little confidence in a guy like Pino, with unimpressive stuff, could give him the motivation he needs to find the next level.  It's unlikely, but it's not unheard of.

David Winfree, OF
2009 Age:  23
Drafted:  13th Round, 2003

Next to Lis, Winfree is the second position player I can see being taken.  He was shifted to the outfield this year, making room for Luke Hughes and Danny Valencia, but he managed to show improvements.  In his second full season in double-A New Britain, Winfree cut down on the strikeouts, significantly increased how often he walked and added 41 points to his isolated power (.159 to .200)...all in spite of losing 15 points off his batting average, his OPS was up 35 points, to 769.  His lines aren't outstanding, and compared to guys like Matt Tolbert he could come off looking like a younger incarnation of him, but there's some raw power there.  Matt Macri posted a .205 ISO in double-A, but at age 25.  Winfree is three years younger, and he's shown marked improvement from '07 to '08.  In some ways Winfree's progression is still on a clear forward trajectory, and in that way can come off as a bigger oversight than not protecting Erik Lis.  I don't like his exposure at all.

Ryan Mullins, LHP
2009 Age:  25
Drafed:  3rd Round, 2005

Mullins is a southpaw who has a history of keeping the ball on the ground and, more importantly, in the park.  In late 2007 the Twins gave him a shot in triple-A, and he was knocked around in four starts, so they stuck him back with the Rock Cats for the whole of 2008.  He wasn't as good in New Britain his second time around, and at 24 he doesn't have a lot of time to wait around hoping to be promoted, but it's not like he was horrible.  A left-hander with decent velocity who can keep the ball on the ground is the profile of a pitcher that can almost always find work, and I have a hard time believing the Twins simply couldn't find a spot for him.  He's no ace, just like every other pitcher on this list, but it certainly seems the organization has arms of higher priority.  Again:  Drew Butera?

Zach Ward, RHP
2009 Age:  25
Drafted:  3rd Round, 2005

Ward came over from Cincinnati in the Kyle Lohse trade (remember all the Zach Ward 7-0 talk?), and there's one asset that's worth keeping him for:  he's an extreme ground-ball pitcher.  Over his last four stops in the minors, he's induced ground balls anywhere between 55 and 71 percent of the time.  In 367.1 minor league innings he's allowed just 12 home runs.  Control was an issue this season, as he walked about 12% of his hitters, but historically he's never been that erratic, and even though he's not really a strikeout pitcher he still sent down 81 men in 93 innings, and that's not bad.  Right now the only thing working against him is his age, but that could be solved by a promotion to the Rochester bullpen.  If he slips through the drafted unselected, the Twins will have gotten away with one.

Matthew Fox, RHP
2009 Age:  26
Drafted:  1st Round, 2004

Superior strikeout numbers in 67 innings in '04 and '06 sandwiched a lost season in 2005 due to labrum and rotor-cuff surgery.  The result of allowing Eddie Guardado to walk (the first time), Minnesota kept Fox in rookie ball for his return in 2006, and he delivered...big time:  1.12 WHIP, 0.22 HR/9, 10.27 K/9.  The Twins tempered their excitement and moved him up just one level the following year, and shifting between the rotation and the bullpen in Beloit he still posted promising numbers; and he should have, he was 24.  At 25 this last summer he was finally moved to Fort Myers in high-A, and in 14 starts and 18 relief appearances he still struck out 99 in 117.1 innings.  Fox has pitched well, but Minnesota has refused to rush him, and as a result he's far too old for his competition, and therefore it's hard to judge whether or not he's as good as his numbers.  Fox could turn into a solid relief option for someone out there, but it seems like the concerns about his injuries are too much to keep him from being exposed by the Twins.

Tim Lahey, RHP
2009 Age:  27
Drafted:  20th Round, 2004

After being drafted in last year's Rule 5 draft, number one overall, I'll be shocked if Lahey is not taken again.  He's a monster of a man who can induce ground balls, but he struggled a bit in Rochester this last year.  His peripherals insist he was better than his 5.43 ERA, and he missed a few bats, but control has always been an issue with Lahey, walking 3.47 men per nine innings in his minor league career.  Still, he's an arm that some teams (Cubs, Phillies) see as major-league ready, but apparently the Twins are content with their internal options without him.  Lahey is almost certain to be taken.

There are other players available as well:  Juan Portes, Matt Moses.  But those nine above are all players who will definitely be getting some consideration from organizations around the league.  You can never tell when you'll bull a Bonilla or a Santana out of the Rule 5 hat, but whoever we lose will be replaced, probably, by someone we've plucked from another system.  And that's where you hope your external scouting department is better than those who made the internal options on who to protect.

Over at the Strib, LEN III believes the Twins could level an official offer this week.  Meanwhile, Kelly Theiser at MLB.com reports the organization is already in discussions with Blake's agent Jim McDowell.

This has to be just a little bit of poetic justice, right?  Although the Twins didn't actually draft Casey Blake.  And even though they already had a third baseman in place who was only one year older.  And they took a chance on Blake, twice.  Hmm...this isn't quite the "full circle" I expected.

I know that Blake spent less than three years in the Minnesota farm system, which could be construed as "we let one go" when we see how he performed for triple-A clubs Salt Lake and Edmonton:  1150 at-bats, .311/.389/.499, 41 homers, 71 doubles, 127 walks, 203 strikeouts.  But the Twins still didn't keep him around, and he landed with the Indians as a free agent at age 29.  In 2004 he had his first truly good offensive season, which happened to coincide with the last good (see:  full) offensive season for one Cordel Leonard Koskie.

Now there's a very real chance that Blake, at age 35, could return to Minnesota and, quite likey, close out his career with the team that will be charged as the one that let him get away.  In 2008, Pecota projected Blake to perform as a typical 34-year old third baseman in decline, with a .264/.333/.432 median line; instead he nearly hit their 75th percentile...or essentially, over his head.  Pecota hasn't yet released forecasts for 2009, but suffice it to say it's likely they'll still be expecting a significant drop in performance.  Bill James, who included Casey Blake in his '09 projections for the Dodgers, looked into his crystal ball and saw .259/.336/.432, with 12 homers in 336 at-bats.

Should the Twins move forward with Blake, and right now it certainly seems that they are, they're doing so with the idea that he'll be able to fill a hole at third base for at least a year or two...until someone named either Luke Hughes or Danny Valencia is ready to step in.  Hopefully.

Looking back over the last five years, Blake's played significant time at the hot corner in three of them, and while he's never been a true defensive whiz by any stretch of the imagination he's certainly reliable.  Every year he'll make a handful of great plays, make a few outs by getting to balls outside of his zone, but getting to his age as a third baseman when does mediocre start to take a turn for the worse?  I understand that it's not necessarily the glove or the arm that the Twins are looking at here, but rather the idea of an everyday third baseman who can provide decent offense from the right side of the plate.  Otherwise, the team would just be platooning Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris.

So it's not the possible dropoff in the field that cautions me against Casey Blake.  It's the offense.  Although other than being a bit more aggressive around the plate (check his percentages for swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone here), taking a glance through the numbers there's nothing that stands out too much from his recent history.

The biggest factor here for me isn't even the money, because I know the Twins aren't going to break the bank.  The biggest factor is simply age.  If we were discussing the Twins signing this exact player at age 30 or 31, it'd be a no-brainer.  But we're playing the odds on a 35-year old.

In some ways it's a perfect situation.  With the Twins in the unique position of actually having prospects in the system who could potentially take over third base in the next 12 to 24-months, they're able to look at a player that doesn't constitute a long-term committment.  They're able to look at a player who can bridge a gap to the future.  And while Casey Blake is that player, I'm still wondering if that's the best direction for the Twins to take.  It's not the player that concerns me, it's the direction.

Ultimately this direction will come down to two things:  money and performance.  Before Blake even steps up to the plate in a Minnesota jersey, his tenure with the team will be judged on his contract.  Then he'll be judged on how he actually plays.  Bizarre, but true.

Now we just have to wait and see what happens before we start complaining.  Or applauding, depending how optimistic you are.