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Eric Simon
Feb 12, 2008 Nov 29, 2008 1944 4296
I'm the HNIC of Amazin' Avenue.
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Mets Arbitration Decisions
Midnight tonight is the deadline for teams to offer salary arbitration to their own free agents, of which the Mets have eleven:
- Oliver Perez
- Luis Ayala
- Pedro Martinez
- Moises Alou
- Damion Easley
- Tony Armas
- Orlando Hernandez
- Ricardo Rincon
- Ramon Martinez
- Matt Wise
- Trot Nixon
Only three of these guys have been ranked by Elias: Oliver Perez is a Type A free agent; Luis Ayala and Moises Alou are both Type Bs. A quick free agent compensation primer: The upside to offering arbitration to a ranked player is clear: Should he sign elsewhere, the former team -- in this case, the Mets -- would receive either a first round pick AND a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds (Type A) or just the sandwich pick (Type B). There are circumstantial exceptions to the compensation for Type A players, because a team could conceivably sign more than one such player but, obviously, only has one first round draft pick to offer back to the player's original team. In such cases, the highest ranked Type A player signed is compensated for by the signing team's first round pick; the second highest ranked Type A the second round pick, etc. Of course, any team picking in the top half of the first round has their first round pick protected, so the musical draft picks begin with the signing team's second rounder instead.
The Mets will almost certainly offer arbitration to Perez, because there is no disincentive to do otherwise. Typically, the worst case scenario for offering a player arbitration is that he accepts and you didn't want him to. That is, you wanted him to sign elsewhere so you could collect the draft pick(s), and his accepting of arbitration would have negative implications on your team's plan for the subsequent year, either financially, roster-wise, or something else entirely. This actually happened in the winter following the 2002 season, when the Braves offered arbitration to both Greg Maddux and Kevin Millwood, expecting at least one of them to decline in favor of a multi-year deal elsewhere. Both players accepted their arbitration offers, and the Braves were forced to trade Millwood to the Phillies (for Johnny Estrada) to ease the burden on their 2003 payroll. The Mets have no such concerns about Perez, because they could afford any one-year arbitration award should he fail to find a deal to his liking on the open market.
I think the Mets should probably offer arbitration to Ayala, too. If he doesn't sign with someone else, the Mets will be on the hook for something like $2 million (just a guess) for next year. Ayala was pretty terrible last year, but the Mets flushed $1 million down the toilet on Matt Wise, so even the worst case for Ayala next year would hardly cripple the Mets financially. Moises Alou is sort of interesting, but the Mets won't offer him arbitration. It's not clear what Alou could be awarded in arbitration, considering he missed almost all of 2008. The collective bargaining agreement stipulates that arbitration-eligible players who are not yet eligible for free agency can be awarded no less than 20% below what they made in the previous season (certain exceptions notwithstanding), but that rule doesn't apply to players, like Alou, who aren't covered under the reserve system [Article XX(A) of the CBA]. Would it be worth extending an arbitration offer to Alou if he'd expect, say, a $3 million arbitration reward? Who knows.
Nobody else on the above list is going to get an offer from the Mets. Prior to 2007, that passivity would have precluded the player from resigning with his former team. That's no longer the case, so the Mets could still negotiate with Pedro Martinez et al without having to guarantee any of them the right to arbitration.
Of course, 29 other teams also have to make arbitration decisions on their own free agents, which is where things will really start to get interesting. There has been very little player movement this offseason, but once the compensation-related incentives/disincentives become known we should see things open up a bit. Will signing Adam Dunn or Ben Sheets make more sense if they won't cost any draft picks than, say, Manny Ramirez or Derek Lowe plus draft picks to boot? By Tuesday morning, the risks of signing another team's players will be much clearer.
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Happy Thanksgiving
Things I am thankful for on this, my favorite holiday of the year:
- Carlos Beltran
- David Wright
- Jose Reyes
- Johan Santana
- Moving to a brand-spanking-new stadium in 2009 (that hopefully won't be called Taxpayer Field)
- Luis Castillo's balky knees
- Moises Alou's pee hands
- Eddie Kunz's ruff outings
- Daniel Murphy's Irish hammer
- Jerry Manuel's post-game interviews
- Carlos Delgado's resurgence
- Endy's Chavez's glove
- Fernando Martinez's potential
- The Mets' big fat wallets
And last but certainly not least, the most intelligent, well-informed, evidence-demanding, status quo-rejecting, self-policing, and otherwise freaking brilliant Mets community on the internet, without whom I certainly couldn't fathom doing this every day. I raise a giant turkey leg to you all!
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Mets Batter VORP By Decade
I'm having a difficult time remembering a more excruciatingly slow offseason than this one. Not only are the rumors of bottom-shelf sexiness, but they're all so embarrassingly off-base that a vast sea of internet sites are losing credibility by the hour. Not this one, though, because we set the bar so impossibly close to the ground as to stifle any potential credibility demerits.
So until something worthwhile comes along, let's kill some time on a pre-holiday Wednesday by poring over some historical Baseball Prospectus data. I ran through Mets batter VORP by decade just to see who the team leaders were during different eras of the franchise's history. A lot of these guys you could have probably guessed, but it's neat to see how everyone stacks up overall.
| NAME | 1960's VORP | YEARS |
|---|---|---|
| Ron Hunt | 92.3 | 4 |
| Cleon Jones | 69.9 | 6 |
| Ken Boswell | 28.0 | 3 |
| Tommy Davis | 27.8 | 1 |
| Ron Swoboda | 25.5 | 5 |
| Art Shamsky | 25.4 | 2 |
| Bob Johnson | 25.0 | 1 |
| Frank Thomas | 22.5 | 3 |
| Bud Harrelson | 22.4 | 5 |
| Richie Ashburn | 21.8 | 1 |
Keep in mind that these figures are aggregates for the entire decade. That 135 games played by Richie Ashburn in 1962 were enough to place him on the top ten list for the eight years the Mets existed in the sixties should tell you all you need to know about the state of their offense back then. Until recently, the Mets have always been heavy on pitching and light on hitting, but this is pretty ridiculous. Ron Hunt and Cleon Jones do alright for themselves here, but the rest is just a disaster. Bud Harrelson played three full seasons and parts of two others and he just barely cracks the list.
| NAME | 1970's VORP | YEARS |
|---|---|---|
| Rusty Staub | 97.2 | 4 |
| Bud Harrelson | 94.5 | 8 |
| Lee Mazzilli | 75.0 | 4 |
| Wayne Garrett | 71.6 | 7 |
| John Milner | 70.8 | 7 |
| Felix Millan | 68.8 | 5 |
| Tommie Agee | 62.0 | 3 |
| Ed Kranepool | 58.7 | 10 |
| Steve Henderson | 58.6 | 3 |
| Cleon Jones | 54.5 | 6 |
The seventies really weren't much better than the sixties, even with two additional years to work with. Bud Harrelson has eight years represented here; Ed Kranepool has the full ten. Le Grand Orange was only in town from 1972 thru 1975, but two of those were good years and the other two were terrific ones. Lee Mazzilli had the highest single-season VORP of the decade with his 46.8 in 1979, with a comfortable lead over the 36.4 Cleon Jones notched in 1971. Only Staub and Tommy Ageee averaged better than two wins above replacement per season. It was a less offensive era to be sure, but even within that context the Mets were pretty pathetic.
| NAME | 1980's VORP | YEARS |
|---|---|---|
| Darryl Strawberry | 253.9 | 7 |
| Keith Hernandez | 181.6 | 7 |
| Howard Johnson | 164.3 | 5 |
| Mookie Wilson | 122.3 | 10 |
| Lenny Dykstra | 93.4 | 5 |
| Kevin McReynolds | 92.2 | 3 |
| Wally Backman | 90.3 | 9 |
| Gary Carter | 82.4 | 5 |
| Tim Teufel | 51.2 | 4 |
| Dave Magadan | 43.3 | 4 |
Cocaine + glam rock = more offense! Lots of big names here, including three of the half-dozen-or-so best hitters the Mets have ever had. I've always had a soft spot for Kevin McReynolds, and I don't think he gets enough credit for his production as a Met. He didn't have much of a personality and he was on the wrong end of the trade that sent future-MVP Kevin Mitchell to the Padres, but he was a very nice hitter for a few years and one of the two batting stances I can remember emulating as a little leaguer (the other was Lenny Dykstra).
Darryl Strawberry and Howard Johnson had five of the top ten VORP seasons of the eighties, with HoJo taking the single-season crown with 74.9 during his monster 1989 campaign: 36 homeruns, 41 stolen bases, 41 doubles, 77 walks. Tim Teufel actually had the tenth-best single-season of the decade with 37.9 VORP in 1987 when he hit .308/.398/.545 in 350 plate appearances.
| NAME | 1990's VORP | YEARS |
|---|---|---|
| John Olerud | 153.2 | 3 |
| Edgardo Alfonzo | 121.0 | 5 |
| Mike Piazza | 120.6 | 2 |
| Bobby Bonilla | 111.9 | 5 |
| Todd Hundley | 91.4 | 9 |
| Howard Johnson | 90.5 | 4 |
| Jeff Kent | 79.8 | 5 |
| Lance Johnson | 71.5 | 2 |
| Dave Magadan | 67.9 | 3 |
| Bernard Gilkey | 59.2 | 3 |
Is it any wonder why John Olerud is my favorite Met of all time? His 70.4 VORP in 1998 was the best of the nineties when he hit .354/.447/.551 and somehow only finished 12th in MVP balloting. Of course, that same year Mark McGwire hit 70 homeruns and OPS-ed 1.222 and still lost the MVP to Sammy Sosa because Sosa's Cubs made the playoffs and Mac's Cardinals did not.
A lot of times I forget that Jeff Kent was with the Mets for so long. I always seem to mis-remember him playing here for a year or two before being shipped off for Carlos Baerga, but he actually stuck around for something like four full seasons. Johnson and Dave Magadan -- another one of my favorites -- make the return visit, as both also appeared on the eighties list.
| NAME | 2000's VORP | YEARS |
|---|---|---|
| David Wright | 275.8 | 5 |
| Mike Piazza | 251.5 | 6 |
| Jose Reyes | 210.6 | 6 |
| Carlos Beltran | 194.6 | 4 |
| Edgardo Alfonzo | 136.7 | 3 |
| Carlos Delgado | 88.9 | 3 |
| Cliff Floyd | 77.5 | 4 |
| Ty Wigginton | 42.2 | 3 |
| Mike Cameron | 37.3 | 2 |
| Paul Lo Duca | 36.4 | 2 |
Ahh, the aughts. If you closed your eyes and tried to guess this list, you'd probably come up with half of it very easily and a few more without a whole lot more trouble. If you guessed Ty Wigginton and Paul Lo Duca on the first shot, you're either Kreskin, Alex Nelson, or both. These numbers include 2008 results, from which we get seasons by David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran. Wright's decade-high and franchise-high mark of 81.1 VORP was set in 2007, though Edgardo Alfonzo's 76.9 in 2000 is just a shade behind.
You'll notice a stark contrast between the 2000's and basically all of the decades preceding it. The Mets have some of the franchise's best offensive players right now, so it should come as no surprise that four of the ten best single-season VORP marks have occurred in the past three seasons (Wright's 2007 and 2008; Jose Reyes's 2008; Carlos Beltran's 2006).
And just for kicks, here is the Mets all-time leaderboard.
| NAME | VORP | YEARS |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Piazza | 372.1 | 8 |
| Darryl Strawberry | 296.9 | 8 |
| David Wright | 275.8 | 5 |
| Edgardo Alfonzo | 257.7 | 8 |
| Howard Johnson | 254.8 | 9 |
| Jose Reyes | 210.6 | 6 |
| Carlos Beltran | 194.6 | 4 |
| Keith Hernandez | 181.6 | 7 |
| John Olerud | 153.2 | 3 |
| Kevin McReynolds | 134.4 | 6 |
| Cleon Jones | 124.4 | 12 |
| Mookie Wilson | 122.3 | 10 |
| Rusty Staub | 120.3 | 9 |
| Lee Mazzilli | 117.5 | 10 |
| Bud Harrelson | 116.9 | 13 |
| Bobby Bonilla | 111.9 | 5 |
| Dave Magadan | 111.2 | 7 |
| Lenny Dykstra | 93.4 | 5 |
| Ron Hunt | 92.3 | 4 |
| Todd Hundley | 91.4 | 9 |
To date, Mike Piazza leads all Mets hitters in career VORP by quite a bit, his 372.1 out-pacing Strawberry's 296.9 to the tune of more than seven wins. Wright is just a couple of decent seasons behind Piazza, though, so there could be a changing of the guard pretty soon. McReynolds at #10 is surprising, while Reyes and Beltran are both climbing this list quickly and furiously.
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Tuesday Applesauce
At MetsGeek, Alex Nelson looks at some things the Mets could learn from the Phillies' run to a world title.
At RotoGraphs, Brian Joura examines Carlos Beltran's power drop over the past couple of seasons and discusses its impact on fantasy ball. As with most content at RotoGraphs, this piece is geared towards fantasy managers, but it can be read almost in its entirety outside of that context.
DRays Bay writes a letter to Omar Minaya espousing all of Edwin Jackson's fine traits and why he'd be a good fit for the Mets. Plus, he feels really bad about the whole Scott Kazmir thing and wants to make it up to the Mets.
At his blog for Newsday, Ken Davidoff crunches some numbers on Mike Mussina and Jose Reyes.
Rob Neyer gives his take on Luis Castillo's contract in light of the second-baseman's recent commitment to getting in shape for 2009.
A member of Athletics Nation recently wrote this epic FanPost on Rickey Henderson, complete with newspaper and magazine clippings, ticket stubs, and what appear to be homemade collages. The bar has been set, people.
Red Reporter peers into the future of Aaron Harang. I don't see anything about him pitching for the Mets, so boo for me.
A judge has dismissed three counts in the government's perjury/obs-jus case against Barry Bonds. Not thrown out: The other eleven counts, ten of perjury and one of obstruction of justice. When reached for comment, Bonds said, "Three counts? The only count that matters is 762, biotch!"
Curt Schilling is headed for the Persian Gulf as part of the USO tour. I'll rail against the guy for being a blowhard and a whackjob, so I'll certainly tip my cap to him for doing something for the heroes.
At Cybermetrics, Cyril Morong wonders if Ryan Howard should strike out less, but he uses numbers and such so it's not really as sarcastic as it sounds.
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Name That Mets Autograph
Lazy Monday, short week, nothing interesting going on. The free agent market is moving at a snail's pace, with the Mets just barely dipping their toes in the water. Let's kill some time guessing another illegible Mets autograph! No cheating, now. No scouring autograph galleries on the internet somewhere.
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Sunday Applesauce
Mets Whatnots
The Mets are reportedly considering Trevor Hoffman for the closer spot next year. I've supported him to some extent this offseason as a cheaper alternative to Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes, and still feel that the Mets could do a whole lot worse. If we assume that the Padres won't offer Hoffman arbitration (they won't), he'll cost maybe $5 million on a one-year deal. I'd say he's not nearly the pitcher Rodriguez, Fuentes, or even Kerry Wood are, but he's also a lot better than some of the crap the Mets used at closer last year. My guess is that this leak is just canard floated by the Mets to keep the other free agent closers in line (via BBTF).
Mets Tailgate takes a quick look at Aaron Heilman's work as a pitcher in college and in the pros. Though, he does make an assertion that Heilman has never changed his arm angle, and we know of at least two times when he did just that.
News, Signings, Etc.
Chad Billingsley "fell on ice" outside his home, fracturing his leg in the process. He is expected to be in a cast for two weeks but should be ready to pitch in time for spring training.
Garret Anderson has switched his player representation from himself to Scott Boras. Anderson has posted sub-100 OPS+ marks in three of the past four seasons. As a corner outfielder. At this point in his career he looks like a fourth outfielder with the bat, and probably considerably worse than that with the glove.
Webstuffs
Baseball-Reference.com provides a list of all of the minor league free agent pitchers, sorted by strikeouts-per-nine. There's likely to be at least a handful of players there who could out-perform Luis Ayala next season.
Is 2008 the year of the buyer? Are baseball owners, like the rest of American consumers, weary of spending too much this holiday season?
Non-baseball
It's football Sunday, so go chat about the Jets at Gang Green Nation and the Giants at Big Blue View.
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Raul Ibanez: What Am I Missing?
Per Jayson Stark, the Mets are among a handful of teams who are interested in ::holds back vomit:: free agent left fielder Raul Ibanez. Why are so many teams so interested in Ibanez when he clearly isn't a very interesting player? One team official clues us in:
"Character. Proven run producer. In better shape than a lot of 25-year-olds. And he'll play hard every day, every game, every second he has the uniform on."
That quote didn't come affixed with any emoticons, editorial assides or anything else that might otherwise indicate its tongue-in-cheek intent, so I'm going to assume that the "team official" was being serious. It is now apparently clear why I'm writing a blog instead of being involved in front office decision-making for a big league club. When evaluating available talent, real live actual major league executives (at least one, anyway) look for the following, which I will cleverly refer to as "The Fantastic Four":
- Character
- Proven run producer
- In better shape than a lot of 25-year-olds
- Plays hard every day, every game, every second he has the uniform on
That's the secret formula, people. Not power, discipline, defense and base-running. Character > talent; playing hard > playing well. Here is my four-reason retort to why the Mets should stay away from Ibanez this offseason. The "Craptastic Four", if you will:
- He is a terrible defensive player.
- He will be 37 in 2009.
- He is a Type A free agent. Type. A.
- Given equivalent playing time, he's probably not any better than Fernando Tatis, whom the Mets already have.
Ibanez is far from an awful hitter, but he is the very epitomy epitome of an awful fielder, and he will be expensive (in money and picks) and old, playing a position where offense is relatively easy to find (see: Tatis). Do. Not. Want. (DNW!)
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Friday Applesauce
News, Signings, Etc.
Daniel Murphy has a strained right hamstring and will skip winter ball in Puerto Rico (what will Nick Evans do now?). The Mets say they still plan to use him as an outfielder, though much of that will depend on what becomes of Luis Castillo.
Yesterday was the deadline for teams to add players to their 40-man roster, a necessary move in order to protect those players from next month's Rule 5 draft. The Mets did just that with Mike Carp.
In case you missed it yesterday, Chase Utley had hip surgery and is expected to miss four-to-six months.
The White Sox have reportedly signed Cuban defector Dayan Viciedo, a 19-year-old third-baseman, for something like $11 million. South Side Sox has more.
The Cardinals have signed lefty Trever Miller to help fill out their bullpen. Neither the deal nor its terms have been officially announced as Miller still needs to undergo the requisite physical. Miller pitched with the Rays last season.
Webstuffs
At MetsGeek, john continues his excellent 2008 profile series with an analysis of Pedro Feliciano.
At his ESPN.com blog, Jason Gray. Gray sort of prattles on a bit about Kunz's poor numbers in Arizona before deciding that he just needs to improve his command. For his part, Kunz didn't think he was so ruff. Gray also adds this tidbit on Daniel Murphy:
Daniel Murphy looked like he could handle second base well enough, given his offensive ability. Whether that's enough for the Mets remains to be seen. He has limitations, but he didn't embarrass himself.
At Bugs & Cranks, Brad Borton lays out the pros and cons of the Mets possibly signing Francisco Rodriguez. It's mostly a rebuttal of all of the reasons Rodriguez might make sense for the Mets, and some of it is tongue-in-cheek, though I take issue with this one:
PRO: "He has thrived in big situations and media pressure his entire career. New York shouldn't phase him at all."
CON: This is what they said about Billy Wagner.
If we accept that injuries happen and that they aren't necessarily the fault of the player, I have few complaints about Wagner's tenure in New York. He burned out down the stretch in 2006 and 2007, but at all other times he was one of the best closers in the league and certainly the best reliever the Mets have had since Armando Benitez circa 1999-2000 (minus the playoffs, of course).
At Cardboard Gods, Josh Wilker busts out a 1976 Topps Dave Kingman and, as is his style, veers wistfully off-topic to discuss how tall ballplayers -- like Kingman -- had it made while shorter guys -- Like Freddie Patek -- often got short shrift.
Joe Posnanski gives us the internet's 27,483rd column on why batting average, homeruns and RsBI, while nice, are outdated and inadequate tools for evaluating -- i.e., determining the value of -- baseball players, for awards voting or otherwise.
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Thursday Applesauce
In Arizona:
- Eddie Kunz, ruff as always, allowed two runs on a walk and three hits -- including a grand slam -- in just two-thirds of an inning.
In the Dominican Republic:
- Fernando Martinez went 0-for-4, and is a total bum.
- Argenis Reyes went 0-for-3.
- Fernando Tatis went 2-for-4 with two doubles, a run scored and a run batted in.
In Puerto Rico:
- Nick Evans went 1-for-3 with a walk and a run scored.
- Brahiam Maldonado went 0-for-1 as a pinch-hitter.
- Jesus Feliciano went 2-for-4 with a walk, a triple, and two runs scored.
Daniel Murphy will have an MRI taken on his right knee today, of which he has experienced discomfort in since November 11.
At MetsGeek, Dan Scotto takes a peek at the Mets' 2009 schedule, looking for interesting stretches and potential bumps in the road.
Mike Mussina appears headed for retirement. Since 1954 he is 15th in wins, 18th in strikeouts, and 8th in strikeout-to-walk ratio (among pitchers with at least 100 starts). He has been a very, very good pitcher for a really long time. If he isn't a Hall of Famer, he's really, really close.
At Baseball Prospectus, Joe Sheehan breaks down the BBRAA awards voting, chastising where appropriate.
At Sabernomics, JC Bradbury puts a dollar value on Derek Lowe. Agent Scott Boras is reportedly looking for a "Zito-type" deal. The annual salary might not be far off (~$18 million a year), but you'd have a tough time finding someone willing to give a soon-to-be 36-year-old a seven-year deal.
The Red Sox' surplus of outfielders led to Coco Crisp being traded to the Royals yesterday in exchange for reliever Ramon Ramirez. Beyond the Boxscore breaks it down. FanGraphs does, too.
Also at BtB, Sky Kalkman thinks the time may be right for the Rays to trade Scott Kazmir, and Peter Bendix continues his series on the history of the NL and AL.
At The Hardball Times, David Gassko follows up on last week's article about whether experience makes any difference to playoff success.
The 30% of sale at the MLB shop has been extended through today. No coupon code necessary.
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The Bill James Handbook 2009

Kim: Looks like you got another !@#$ing book in the mail.
Me: The new Bill James Handbook is here! The new Bill James Handbook is here!
Kim: [not quite under her breath] Loser.
Me: ::grinning like a goon::
That conversation may not have actually taken place, but it might as well have. I've nearly filled an entire bookshelf with baseball annuals, including six separate editions of the BJH. In a vast sea of baseball annuals, the BJH distinguishes itself from the pack by -- among other things -- hitting the streets just after the World Series ends. This year's edition was available on November 1st, and I think I may have received my review copy a day or two before then, even. I'm still not sure how they get it finished and shipped so quickly; I think it has something to do with elves.
Last year I tirelessly went through every section of the book and explained the just of the contents. The structure of the book is largely unchanged from last year, so I'm not going to bore you with all of that. I'll try to gear this review more towards Mets-centric nuggets from the book, of which there are plenty.
I mentioned it in an applesauce a couple of weeks ago, but the Fielding Bible awards are back, and Carlos Beltran was honored as the top defensive centerfielder, beating out former Mets Carlos Gomez and Mike Cameron, among others. A panel of ten "experts" voted on the awards, including Bill James, John Dewan, Joe Posnanski and Rob Neyer. David Wright finished tied for fifth at third base (Adrian Beltre won), Jose Reyes finished tenth at shortstop (Jimmy Rollins) and Johan Santana was the sixth highest-ranked pitcher (Kenny Rogers). The voting was somewhat subjective, though I suppose each panelist reached his conclusions using whatever means he considered the most meaningful. The objective counterpart to the awards are Dewan's plus/minus leaders, which would seem to cut into his profits on the forthcoming Fielding Bible 2009. Jose Reyes appears on neither the leaders nor the trailers list, so we may actually have to wait for the FB2009 to know how he actually rated. From the "Kinda Looks Like a Misprint" department, Chase Utley was 47 plays better than average at second base, which is mind-boggling. Also mind-boggling: Pat Burrell was -73 in left field from 2006-2008. Do. Not. Want.
As usual, the BJH devotes near 300 pages to the career registers of every player who was active in 2008. I understand why they include it, and it's theoretically handy to have that kind of information on hand, but in practice I just find it negligibly useful. All of that information -- and much, much more -- is seconds away on the internets. I've got a desktop and a laptop (and an iPhone), so there's rarely a time when it's more convenient to look up a player's statistics in a book instead of hopping online. Maybe I'm on an island here, but I'd prefer they save some trees, cut the career register, and maybe add a few more Bill James articles about the prior season in order to flesh things out a little bit.
The time I save by not looking at the career register I can spend on the 2008 baserunning statistics, which are just fascinating to me. If we can accurately measure runs created on the basepaths, there's no reason they shouldn't be included in a player's total value when we're quantifying his contributions to the team. Offense is X, defense is Y, and baserunning should be Z. The BJH's baserunning stats measure each player's ability at:
- Going first-to-third on a single
- Going second-to-home on a single
- Going first-to-home on a double
- Advancing on outs
- Not getting doubled off
- Not grounding into double-plays
All of those factors are thrown into a mixer which spits out a base runs gained/lost. That number is combined with stolen base gain/lost to arrive at a total baserunning gain/lost, expressed in runs. Carlos Beltran cracked the top ten with +35 base runs, which you can add to the list of things he does extraordinarily well. Jose Reyes was at +32. Derek Jeter was -13. Willy Taveras led all big leaguers with +70 base runs. Dioner Navarro trailed everyone at -39. As a team, the Mets were fourth in the majors with +85 base runs. The World Champion Phillies were first overall with +114 base runs.
The relief pitching section is also neat, as it breaks down saves into different types (easy, regular, tough), and also includes things like stranding inherited runners, pitching on consecutive days, high-leverage situations, long outings blown save/win situations, and some other stuff. A "tough save" is defined as one in which a reliever comes into the game with the tying or go-ahead runs on base. Tough saves were only converted successfully 22% of the time in 2008. The Mets' bullpen served to drag that number down a bit by going 0-for-8 in tough save opportunities.
We've also got a section on manufactured runs. This goes a bit beyond productive outs by determining actual runs that scored as a result of "productive" outs. A manufactured run, per the BJH, is "(a) any run on which two or more of the bases come from something other than playing station-to-station baseball, or (b) a run that scores without a hit, or with only infield hits". They're further separated into deliberately manufactured runs (runs that involve a stolen base, a bunt, or a pinch-runner) and non-deliberate manufactured runs (one that don't include the aforementioned managerial decisions). For whatever it's worth, the Mets manufactured more total runs -- 207 -- than any other National League team, and just shy of the 213 manufactured by the Twins. Yay! Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran are the top two manufacturers in the NL, craftily assembling 42 runs and 37 runs, respectively.
The book goes on and on. We've got managerial records, park factors, comprehensive ballpark statistics (Shea Stadium suppressed RHB batting average more than any NL park outside of San Diego), lefty/right splits for batters and pitchers, esoteric stat leaderboards (David Wright had the second-highest NL OPS among players under 25; Mike Pelfrey led the NL in GIDP/9 with 1.30; Oliver Perez was the most extreme flyball pitcher in all of baseball;), career win shares, and the Young Talent Inventory (Wright and Reyes are both among James's top ten players under 27). We also get 2009 projections, which I've already covered in great depth.
If that weren't enough, there's also career targets (formerly known as the Favorite Toy), which evaluates the likelihood of certain players hitting certain milestones. For instance, Jose Reyes has a 31% chance of reaching 3,000 hits and a 5% chance of reaching 4,000 hits. Alex Rodriguez dominates this section, and has a 49% chance of breaking Barry Bonds's career homerun record.
There's really just an astounding amount of information in here, and it's very easy to get lost within it for hours at a time. I urge you to pick up your own copy, and if you do, please buy it directly from ACTA Sports. You can save a few bucks through Amazon, but when you buy direct from the publisher you're supporting the folks that make this and other great baseball books possible.
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