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Thursday randomness

Kicking my heels gently, waiting for Cloverfield to open tomorrow. The theme of a lot of the reviews so far, seems to be Blair Witch meets Godzilla. That somewhat disturbs me, since the former was mediocre horror with a great marketing campaign. Mind you, Mrs. SnakePit's motion sickness during that one, was so bad she ended up staring at the back of the seat in front most of the time. As for Godzilla, whether or not it's a good thing depends on whether it's the Japanese original or the utterly unnecessary remake foisted on the public in the 1990's. But we're going regardless; by all accounts, it's cinematic enough to be worth the cash.

On the D-backs front, things are warming up. We've got the 2008 FanFest, which is now confirmed as being on February 9. Looks like much the same format as last year: photographs, autographs, the yard sale [they likely still have multiple cases of Matt Mantei baseballs to get rid of!], and so on. It was a great experience last year, and we might have to get down there a little earlier this time, as we missed most of the autograph sessions. Mind you, how many Webbagraphs do we really need? :-) At least this time, we should have a decent camera, rather than having to buy a disposable on the day, and enduring the results.

A little bit beyond that, tickets to the Spring Training games down in Tucson go on sale this Saturday. The first game is a rematch of tne NLCS against the Colorado Rockies on Feb. 28 at 1:05 p.m. Of course, other teams are already selling their tickets, if you don't want to brave the I-10 trip. Particularly popular games would be AZ night/weekend games up here. Leading that list, and a likely sellout, is the 8th March one against the Cubs in Phoenix, a Saturday afternoon contest. The Diamondbacks are back in town a week later, to face the Angels in Tempe, though this involves buying seats through Ticketbastard, and we'd rather avoid that wherever possible. Fortunately, the Angels stadium is easily accessible and commonly driven-past, so we may end up going to the box-office direct. Not been to that stadium, so be nice to cross it off the list. The night game on Wed. 17 March against Seattle at Peoria, and Sunday 23rd, when we face the Brewers, are also possible.

They've also announced the participants in the final two warm-up games which, as usual, are taking place at Chase Field. The first game is - and you should probably sit down for this - the Colorado Rockies. Yes, go get your tickets for that one now, in case they sell out... As if we won't be playing them enough in the season. Or even during the previous month of Spring Training. However, the second one is at least a bit different, because Arizona will be facing the defending Mexican League Champion Monterrey Sultanes at 5:10 p.m. on March 29. Actually, more than somewhat different, I think it's kinda unique: but guess which one is being televised? Yeah, the Rockies game. Yawn... I'd be tempted to go to Chase for the Saturday one: except the costs for tickets to those two games are major-league prices, not spring-training prices.

The process has begun of reaching agreement with our six arbitration-eligible players: Juan Cruz, Edgar Gonzalez, Brandon Lyon, Jose Valverde, Chris Snyder and Orlando Hudson. Cruz has signed for one year, at a surprisingly low $1,937,500. He'll be a free agent at the end of this year, and I suspect the D-backs will be likely to let him walk, not least because if he repeats his 2007 performance, he'll be a Type A free agent, and we get two high 2009 draft picks as a result. According to the Elias rankings, Cruz was actually above Jose Valverde - both were Type A, while Lyon and Peña were Type B. Be interesting to see how things change over the next year: I'm wondering if Cruz's performance was skewed by his 6-1 win-loss record, or if that's ignored by Elias for relievers? If Lyon gets saves, he could certainly become a Type A too, and we'd be left with some difficult decisions to make at the end of 2008, with Famine and War both free agents.

Which brings me to this week's poll, our Hall of Fame panel having decided Randy Johnson, at 56%, will be the first player in the Hall of Fame, to have pulled on an Arizona jersey. With half the Four Relievers of the Apocalypse able to ride off into the sunset after this season, what do we do? Should we crack open the piggy-bank and re-sign both of them? Keep one and let the other go? And if so, which one would you keep? Right now, that is - obviously, 2008 performances will come into play significantly, and if Lyon is the closer, his price on the free-market is going to be a lot higher. Or do we let both go, and end up with potentially seven picks in the 2009 draft before the second round starts? [Our own first-round one plus, potentially, three first-round choices from the teams that sign Hudson, Cruz and Lyon, and three additional sandwich picks between the first and second rounds.] The Poster Formerly Known as npineda - and now known as Captain D Bag - talks some more about this in a diary, and floats the idea of Cruz closing.

Back when we were 'discussing' the future with Rox Girl, she linked over to a post-Haren prediction on Replacement Level, which had less than three games separating the entire NL West save the Giants, based on the CAIRO predictions. Stop the presses. The same blog recently ran a simulation using the CHONE predictions, and the results, as published by Nick Piecoro, were radically different: we are a whopping 8.7 wins better, and the prediction is for us to sweep majestically to the division title by nine games. Are you listening, Denver? :-) [Colorado end up in fourth, twelve games back...] Both systems used appear to predict similar years for our pitching, with CHONE saying we'll allow 695 runs, compared to CAIRO's 704. It's the offense where CHONE is much more optimistic, 831-725. Given we scored only 712 last year, I think we are likely to do a lot better this year.

And the obligatory couple of interesting links. True Blue LA comments on the Piecoro Projections, and tends to think AZ and LA will be neck and neck this season. Rox Girl continues her series looking at the divisional matchups, with the rotations. Hey, look at that, will ya? We come out on top, and it seems that only a season-ending injury to Brandon Webb can stop us! Steve Gilbert looks at our middle infield; no real surprises there, and Gilbert is currently off at the D-backs fantasy camp in Tucson, which may explain why that piece feels a bit phoned in. Finally, I enjoyed this Hardball Times piece on Quirky Baseball Rules, such as the mythical Fenway ground-rule triple, and how to hit into a triple-play without the ball being touched by a fielder.

Poll
Free-agent relievers; what do we do?
It should be the Lyon in winter
16 votes
Set them free and loot the 2009 draft
11 votes
Keep 'em both here
31 votes
We need Cruz control
4 votes

62 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 24 comments

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Hoho
I loved the triple play with the K and failed double steal  - that's the kind of thing that causes steam to spurt from managerial ears.  Blowing first and third with no outs, without even putting the ball in play... truly brilliant.

by peachy rex on Jan 18, 2008 10:16 AM EST   0 recs

great read
the triple play comment was the best.

by johngordonma on Jan 18, 2008 5:19 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Balks & Stealing
I loved this rule for the balk:
"14. pitches while facing away from the batter"

They had to make a rule!  That was just happening too damned often.

As for this one:
"Take the stolen base. Did you know that it used to be possible to steal first from second?...I don't know about you but it sounds kind of fun!"

When my dad coached Little League, he and his assistant coach used to steal first from second all the time just to screw with the kids.  I didn't know anyone had ever actually done it in a game, though.  There's something to be said for making the rules work for you, I guess.

by azshadowwalker on Jan 18, 2008 7:16 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Poll
I guess it all depends on what position we are in after the break. If we're still in contention, keep Lyon and let the guys walk after the year and be thankful for the picks.

If we're not in shouting distance, I say trade Lyon (or whoever is closing) for a young pitching package because we all know that every season there is someone willing to pay through the teeth for a guy with closing experience.

by AZSEAfan on Jan 18, 2008 1:03 PM EST   0 recs

Cloverfield ...
Going to have a review/diary section?  I caught the midnight showing lol.

by Captain D Bag on Jan 18, 2008 3:47 PM EST   0 recs

Predictions...
... and yet another set of 2008 NL West predictions.  This time based off of a sabermetrically inclined baseball game simulator that takes 2008 ZIPS projections as it's input.  Further details on the study available at the site.

Link: 2008 NL West - Winter Rankings

The DBacks and Padres come out on top in a statistical deadheat.  The DBacks are slightly ahead but both within the margin of error for best NL West team.  The Padres though might get the nudge as Randy Johnson was assumed healthy in the study.

vr, Xei

Dodger Sims 2008 NL West Rankings.

by Xeifrank on Jan 18, 2008 6:44 PM EST   0 recs

Where...
Did you get the 2008 ZIPS for Arizona? Last time I looked over at Baseball Think Factory, Dan Z. had only got as far as Boston [he starts at the end of the alphabet and works backwards]. Do you have a link for the 2008 AZ ZIPS?

by Jim McLennan on Jan 18, 2008 6:46 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Zips
sorry, I left out that important point.  For the DBacks I used Bill James, since like you mentioned their Zips is not out yet.  :)
Thanks for pointing that out.
vr, Xei
Dodger Sims 2008 NL West Rankings.

by Xeifrank on Jan 18, 2008 6:57 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Right
Is this is the same system you used last year to predict the Rockies finishing last?

I'm sure you were only 2.4% off of what Vegas said... and that's what's important, right?

Bob Melvin Sucks

by nihil67 on Jan 19, 2008 3:16 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

system
it's the same system that predicted the Red Sox would win the World Series (on 2/13/07).  Vegas beat it by 1.2%, but let's see how it does against this years version.  Our team of software engineers have made quite a bit of enhancements during the offseason. :)
vr, Xei
Dodger Sims 2008 NL West Rankings.

by Xeifrank on Jan 19, 2008 11:18 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Yeah...
...bet your entire net worth on these projections. ; )

by foulpole on Jan 20, 2008 4:22 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

silly
you're just being silly now.
vr, Xei
Dodger Sims 2008 NL West Rankings.

by Xeifrank on Jan 20, 2008 12:10 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Poll
I don't really know how to answer that one.  Both of those guys make me nervous.  I'm sure it's a case of the bad sticking in my mind, but it seems like everytime I watched Lyon pitch he was doing something to risk the lead.  I know that he actually pitched better than I remembered.  Still, all last season, everytime he was put in the game, I would get an "oh, no" feeling.

by azshadowwalker on Jan 18, 2008 7:19 PM EST   0 recs

For some strange reason...
I found the "ticketbastard" slang hilarious.  I have had my fair share of problems with them as well and now I have the perfect name for them.  It never even crossed my mind.

by dbacksfan01 on Jan 20, 2008 1:54 AM EST   0 recs

Webb
I always seem to be the Dayn Perry watchman... but another Perry article with a D-Back note.  He calls Webb the best RHP in the game (understandable)... of course then he calls Sabathia the best LHP in the game (huh???).
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7673598

by johngordonma on Jan 20, 2008 2:52 PM EST   0 recs

Perry
He's an idiot.  You may be the only person on earth that still reads his stuff.
Bob Melvin Sucks

by nihil67 on Jan 21, 2008 7:45 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

LOL!
Well, since I read nearly every single baseball article on Fox, SI, Sportsline, Yahoo and Sporting News, I guess I'm stuck.

by johngordonma on Jan 21, 2008 4:19 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Nah
I'm with you.  I read them all too.  I've just grown to know to gloss over everything Perry says.
Bob Melvin Sucks

by nihil67 on Jan 21, 2008 5:20 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

IAWTC
Exactly.
Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Jan 21, 2008 9:47 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I think that...
"He's an idiot."

...is a little severe. Sometimes he's spot on,  other times ...not so much...but "idiot?"

How was the last article "idiot( ic )"?

JMO

by foulpole on Jan 22, 2008 3:53 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Well, ya know,
Ben has NEVER been one to use hyperbole....
Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Jan 22, 2008 8:49 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Which?
Do you mean his idiotic jaunt through each position, pulling out the guys that had the best season that he could remember?  (Rollins over Reyes?  The ever injured Joe Mauer over guys like Posada and Victor Martinez?  Ichiro as the best CF?!?  Over Rowand, Beltran, Sizemore, and even Andruw Jones?!?)  Look ma!  I can point out that Albert Pujols is the best 1B in baseball!  Give me my Pulitzer!  (Matt Holliday is a borderline pick over Manny Ramirez, but I'll let it slide.)

Or do you mean his latest piece where he bumbles through teams that "could make noise".  The Reds?  The worst rotation outside of St. Louis and an insane manager?  The Rangers?  They added Josh Hamilton and Jason Jennings... HOLY SHIT THEY'RE GOING TO WIN 30 MORE GAMES!  The Twins?  Subtracted Garza and Hunter... added... Delmon Young and Adam Everett.  Wow.  The only pick here I like is the Rays, but not for the reasons he lists.  Troy Percival is an excellent addition??  Wait... is this 2004?

How about some teams that will actually surprise?  The Braves?  The Mariners?  The Phillies (does it count as a surprise this time?)

Bob Melvin Sucks

by nihil67 on Jan 22, 2008 9:16 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Hmm?
Matt Holliday is a borderline pick over Manny Ramirez, but I'll let it slide.

Can't agree. Holliday can actually DEFEND, as well as not being a total douchebag.

Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Jan 22, 2008 9:28 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

All this talk about attitude
It's not the player your like the best, it's the guy that plays the best.  You're right though, Ramirez has his defensive issues.
Bob Melvin Sucks

by nihil67 on Jan 22, 2008 11:20 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

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