Upton impresses

by Jim McLennan on Jul 9, 2007 5:17 PM EDT

Smashed a homer in the All-Star Futures game yesterday, and also uncorked an amazing throw to home-plate. As a result, much coverage, from writers both local and national. ESPN's Jerry Crasnick writes:

Upton carries himself with the poise of a player who has been around a while, and he clearly has benefited from watching his brother's growing pains in Tampa Bay... Justin, selected a year after the Diamondbacks drafted Stephen Drew, switched from shortstop to the outfield and is destined to stay there for the long haul. Right now, it's simply a matter of refinement. He's receiving help in the fine art of outfield play from Mobile manager and former major leaguer Brett Butler.

After fiddling around with a number of stances last year, Upton has concentrated on taking a more consistent approach this season. He also spent a lot of time this past winter working on flexibility drills and other exercises to enhance his durability. Waiting for the call isn't easy when you're this talented, but Upton is determined to be as close as he can to a finished product when the Diamondbacks decide he's ready.

While Joseph Reaves, in the Republic, miraculously manages an entire story without mentioning the Cubs or Arizona's record against winning teams:

Upton, the No. 1 pick overall in the 2005 major league draft by the Diamondbacks, is turning out to be a lot more than pretty cool. He is becoming pretty hot. So hot that Arizona fans almost certainly will see him at Chase Field in September - if not sooner. He is hitting .318 combined at Class A Visalia and Double-A Mobile this season and was the star for Team USA in Sunday's All-Star Futures game. An impressive shortstop in high school, the Diamondbacks moved him to center field in the minors, thinking that would speed his climb to the majors.

The obvious question is - and both articles address this - where about is he going to play? He's currently in CF, but I think Chris Young is more likely to play there. I can certainly see an outfield of Quentin, Young and Upton next year, but would we move Quentin or Drew to left? Discuss..

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What to do with Upton?

This is a great topic to toss about for the next several days!!

Before addressing what we do with Upton, I think it's important to first straighten out what we do with CoJack. I really see the two issues as related, since they're two critical pieces to the position logjam.

CoJack reminds me a lot of Lyle Overbay: a homegrown 1B prospect with only double power, and "a good eye" that has yet to yield good results despite giving him a patient chance. Our organization seems very torn about what to do about CoJack, and I attribute a lot of that to a fear of repeating the "mistake" we made with Overbay. We need to put CoJack on notice by doing the follwing.

1) Get CoJack consistent ABs/send down Reynolds. Yes, Reynolds is playing better defensively than Tracy, and he's hitting somewhat better than he did in June. However, this many corner infielders has created an AB scarcity that's plaguing the entire team. We've basically chosen Reynolds over CoJack for the past week plus. Reynolds deserves his shot, but let him ripen in AAA for a while. More ABs will do everyone some good!
CoJack is still young talent, and it's been our philosophy to let young talent play its way through slumps. It's not like he's Quentinesque.

2) If at the end of the season CoJack is still deficient, it'll be time to look to other options (Tracy at 1B, Player X at 3B). Till then, we should maximize ABs for prospects throughout the system rather than have prospects starve for ABs at the major league level.

3) Now, assuming Upton is in the Majors to start next season, where he plays will be dependent on whether CoJack straightens out or not.
a) If CoJack doesn't improve, that opens up several options. I suggest we move Drew to 3B, Tracy to 1B, and let Upton rule SS. Pay Byrnes, and hope Quentin is just not feeling well in the labrum. Under no circumstances does Young move from CF. He looks sooo comfortable (natural, graceful) there.

b) If CoJack proves himself worthy of full-time play, it'll have to be with his bat (his glove is too sub-par to save). We'd be best to look like this:

1B Tracy
2B ???
SS Upton
3B Drew
LF CoJack
CF Young
RF Quentin

Yep, that means we don't sign Byrnes, which is tough (I'm one of the few Byrnes supporters on here).

Option 3a is the most likely, in my opinion. We'll relegate CoJack to a bench player unless he significantly steps up his game. Retorts and replies are welcome.

by tabe1978 on Jul 9, 2007 6:51 PM EDT 0 recs

Upton wont

be SS, he was moved from there to OF for a reason... I do not expect them to reverse that.

I always liked Overbay and thought we dumped his ass too quickly, so hope we wont do the same with CoJack.

by AZDarkKnight on Jul 10, 2007 7:00 AM EDT up 0 recs

Upton et.. al

I refuse to get excited about our rookies anymore.
All this hype leads to false hopes. All we have or can afford is our farm hands so that is all the publicity flacks have to focus on. How many of these whiz kids will be with us or even regular major leaguers two years from now? At the rate we are going we will run out of bonafide
prospects and alot quicker if this crop does not pan out. Then what?

by kylerkenney on Jul 9, 2007 7:45 PM EDT 0 recs

One thing to remember

Is how rare it is for young players to produce at above-average levels. The likes of Pujols and Cabrera are very much the exception, rather than the rule. I looked into this at baseballreference.com, and asked it for a list of players in the past six years who are a) 24 or younger, b) qualified for the batting title, and c) had an OPS over 100 in any season. In six years, there's only been fifteen such players in the National League, including CoJack, last year. That's about one such uber-prospect per team every six seasons.

Certainly, the performance of our young players has been disappointing, but it's too early to give up on them. There's less than a handful of players Chris Young's age with more homers (Zimmerman, Fielder and Hanley Ramirez) - and none of them play the outfield. As for Upton, don't forget, he's only 19, so I wouldn't expect anything from him this year or next. Only a couple of twenty year-old players in the expansion era (since 1961) have had OPS+ above 100: Johnny Bench in 1968 and Roberto Alomar in 1988.

by Jim McLennan on Jul 9, 2007 10:45 PM EDT up 0 recs

Above Average Youth

One thing to remember is how rare it is for young players to produce at above-average levels.

Which begs the question as to how honest the FO was, talking about "competing" this season, playing five or six kids on a given night - especially given underwhelming veteran "anchors" like Hudson and Byrnes (based on past history).

Young players with above average OPS+ are certainly not the rule, but I wouldnt call them terribly rare either. In 2003, hitting savant Alex Cintron missed your "exclusive" list by about 30 PAs, and some 24 year olds who can hit 100 OPS+, cant supplant better hitting teammates at their position - not an obstacle for Conor Jackson.

Only a couple of twenty year-old players in the expansion era (since 1961) have had OPS+ above 100: Johnny Bench in 1968 and Roberto Alomar in 1988.

I agree with your general principle here, but Griffey, A-Rod, Tony Conigliaro each did this - I suspect there may be quite a few others.

by Diamondhacks on Jul 11, 2007 2:46 AM EDT up 0 recs

Just to clarify...

I was only talking about the National League [though I admit, it wasn't 100% clear that carried forward from the previous paragraph!] You're right, there do seem to be more examples in the AL: maybe the DH means they have a more aggressive policy about bringing in youth?

by Jim McLennan on Jul 11, 2007 11:45 AM EDT up 0 recs

Cojack

If he has such a great eye at the plate why can't he make contact with the balls he chooses to swing at?

by kylerkenney on Jul 9, 2007 7:48 PM EDT 0 recs

Actually...

Per Inside Edge:
Least likely to swing and miss a pitch:

Jackson, Conor - 9.6% (37 of 384)
Tracy, Chad - 15.6% (57 of 365)
Byrnes, Eric - 15.9% (105 of 659)

Without looking at the link, try and guess who the 'Most likely to chase a pitch out of the strike zone' are among the D-backs. You'll probably get two of the top three, but the last one might be a bit of a surprise.

by Jim McLennan on Jul 11, 2007 4:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

Hmm.. Id guess...

Q, Reynolds and hmm Hudson (thinking about how he chases the bad balls into double plays).......

by AZDarkKnight on Jul 11, 2007 6:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

One of three

by Jim McLennan on Jul 11, 2007 11:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

Well...

Q is the one... Reynolds might not be included on the list as He isn't really a starter and Hudson was a stretch... so Id choose EB as one... I'll leave the other(s) for someone else to guess

by AZDarkKnight on Jul 12, 2007 2:49 AM EDT up 0 recs

Hmm,

Very enlightening statistics, Jim. Thanks. I was thinking Q, Snyder and O-Dawg.

Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Jul 12, 2007 12:59 AM EDT up 0 recs

Cojack

We need to be patient with CoJack. He is part of our future. He is missing too many AB's. Let him play! We will see Upton next year. Maybe. Don't rush him.

by DiamondbacksWIn on Jul 9, 2007 9:31 PM EDT 0 recs

Where to play Upton

There was a very good reason Upton was moved to the outfield last year. He is a very bad shortstop! His senior year in HS he was moved to 3rd base because of poor defensive play. His errors are even worse than his brother BJ's were.

Upton should be considered at a corner outfield spot. Young is a much better outfielder and a natural centerfielder. Depending upon Gonzalez' development rf is more a natural position for Upton.

I'm not convinced Gonzalez will be a regular of in the major leagues yet. His struggles with lhp continues and his outfield play is lackadasical. He does possess an outstanding arm and is lefthanded a plus in an organization so righthanded.

by VaDad on Jul 9, 2007 10:45 PM EDT 0 recs

Upton ...

Late 08 ... I'm sorry to all the hopefuls, but he needs to go against some big league ready pitchers. I know low A ball are pitcher friendly leagues, but when your good, your going to beat pitchers. He's good ... we gotta start seeing how good at the pro level.

Listen to me, I got no reason to lie to you, don't make the same mistakes I made when I was young. F- a lotta women kid, not just one woman, a lotta women.

by npineda on Jul 10, 2007 4:41 AM EDT 0 recs

I think

that Upton will be up here when we expand the roster but I think it unlikely that he will make the roster next year unless he sets things on firein his month up here and in ST. Im looking for an OF position other than CF also.

by AZDarkKnight on Jul 10, 2007 6:57 AM EDT 0 recs

Rob Blackstein weighs in

Link

With Carlos Quentin getting farmed out and Scott Hairston and Jeff Salazar looking like short-term answers at best (although I still believe Hairston could surprise), it may be time for the D-Backs to dip back into their system for the answer. Just like they did when they aggressively promoted Mark Reynolds, could it be time to give Justin Upton a look?... If Arizona's tailspin continues and it plays itself out of the race, that could expedite Upton's arrival.

by Jim McLennan on Jul 11, 2007 1:08 AM EDT 0 recs