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Around SBN: Newcastle Battle Injury Woes Ahead of Tottenham

Where Do We Go From Here?

The battle's done, and we kinda won.
So we sound our victory cheer.
Where do we go from here?
Why is the path unclear,
When we know home is near.
Understand we'll go hand in hand,
But we'll walk alone in fear. (Tell me)
Tell me where do we go from here?

Well, that's the bulk of the Christmas shopping done. Not too painful; nobody got killed (well, no-one important - and parking-lot stabbings don't count as criminal offenses in the month of December, anyway) and I'm back with everything except my credit-card balance intact. The flurry of activity seems to have resolved many of the issues swirling around the team. We've now got the rotation apparently set, with the trade for Haren, and Kuroda going to the Dodgers. Tony Clark will not be coming back. But there are still some questions that need to be resolved. A nod to Shoe, who posted a similar thread over on DBBP, and here we go, in increasing order of complexity.

  1. Who's going to close? Peña and Lyon are the two obvious choices, with an outside shot at Qualls. My immediate feeling is that it's probably going to be Peña, whose flame-throwing ferocity seems perhaps a bit better suited to the job than Brandon Lyon's four-pitch finesse. Both men had two saves last year; Lyon might seem to have more experience (25 career, compared to three for Peña), but he had none in the minors, where Peña had 13 in 2006. Perhaps we might even see Max Scherzer later in the year, but expectations of that are a bit premature, seeing he has pitched pro-ball for only one season.

  2. Back of the pen? Valverde has gone, but Qualls would appear, effectively, to fill up his spot as one of the Four Relievers of the Apocalypse. Do we now have to rename the existing members if everyone changes roles? Does Peña become Death if he closes? Or does he still remain Pestileñce? Can anyone think of any appropriate plagues which begin with the letter Q? Q Fever is the only one that comes to mind. Got some potential there though. I can imagine the seventh-inning comments: "I've got a fever...and the only cure is more Qualls."

    What? You thought this would be roster-related? Oh, alright - if you insist. Assuming we have the (New) Four Relievers and Slaten, that gives us two spots for long relief and mop-up duty. I'm thinking Nippert and EdGon for those roles perhaps?

  3. Starter #6? Yes, we know we run a five-man rotation, but how often is that enough? Last year, we needed 23 outings from pitchers outside the top five for starts; in the previous two seasons, that total was 38 and 27 games. So, basically, you need a sixth starter - single or by committee - who can fill up the gaps when one of your initial rotation goes down. And that's especially the case if you're looking at Randy Johnson in the rotation: I think we will all be rather more cautious in our expectations for him than previously. Personally, any more than the ten starts we got from the Big Unit last season will be a bonus.

    Edgar Gonzalez and Yusmeiro Petit would be the two most likely contenders. Both were spot/fringe starters in 2006, getting 12 and 10 starts respectively. Petit had a significantly better overall ERA - 4.58 to 5.03 - but EdGon's record was bloated by a number of unsuccessful relief outings. As a starter alone, his ERA was 4.67, basically the same as Petit, and he'd have been ahead, except for a meaningless late-season outing, the game after we clinched the playoffs, where he allowed five earned runs in three innings.

    Petit has youth on his side, being 21 months younger than Gonzalez, but that also means that, unlike Edgar, he can be optioned to the minors. I'd expect to see him in Tucson, but if Edgar is the long man out of the pen, the Petit Unit could be the regular go-to guy when needed. They may follow through with what they discussed doing at one point last year, shortly before Johnson's season gurgled down the plug-hole. Put Petit (or whoever is the #6 guy) on the same schedule as Johnson, so he's ready to go at any given start. On the other hand, Webb, Davis and Haren have averaged 33.8 starts per season over the past three years, so fingers crossed, we shouldn't have any problems there.

  4. What if Tracy isn't healthy? And, spending Thanksgiving night in a hospital emergency room makes that seem likely... That would leave us with Jackson at first, Reynolds at third, and no obvious backups at either position. At third in 2007, once you get past Special K and Chad, the next most-regular men are the 119 innings from Callaspo, 58 by Cirillo and 17 from Barden - none of whom will be with the team in 2008. Similarly, at first-base, apart from Jackson and Tracy, almost the entire balance of playing time was by Tony Clark (452 innings), who is very unlikely to be available. These are two areas where super-utility guy Chris Burke won't help us, since he has no apparent experience at either position.

    Jamie D'Antona may be a solution; 67 games for Tucson at third, and 47 at first, batting .308 with 13 HR. However, on looking at the fielding stats, he requires a radical redefinition of the word "solution". :-S D'Antona made 21 errors in 114 games, between the two positions, with a fielding percentage at third of just .909 - to put that into context, Tracy's worst year at third-base, he had a .935 F%. The team was so unconvinced of his value they didn't even add him to the 40-man roster, for protection in the Rule 5 draft earlier this month. It didn't matter though, as no other team was interested enough to pick him. A little further down the depth chart is Javier Brito, who batted .327 for Double-A Mobile, and made eight errors in 106 games at first. However, he has minimal experience at third, and like D'Antona, is also right-handed.

    That's important because we probably want a leftie off the bench: Jackson, over his career, has an OPS 173 points lower against righties. if we want a southpaw, we will likely need to dip into the free-agent or trade marketplace. Here's the list of free-agent first-basemen and third-baseman. The lefties/switch-hitters on the lists (not named "Clark"), are
    1B: Sean Casey, Robert Fick, Eric Hinske, Ryan Klesko, Doug Mientkiewicz, Mark Sweeney, Brad Wilkerson
    3B: Russell Branyan, Corey Koskie, Abraham Nunez

    Hinske and Branyan are the only ones with any experience at both positions, but Hinske hit .204 for Boston last season, and Branyan was worse still, bouncing between the Padres, Phillies and Cards. Of course, we can always turn Micah Owings around! ;-)

  5. What if Tracy is healthy? Assuming Chad does make a full recovery in time for Opening Day, and proves himself in Spring Training - or, indeed, whenever he is ready to return. Does he get to reclaim his position at third-base? In about two-thirds of a full-season, Reynolds had an OPS of .844; Tracy was down at .800, albeit with obvious issues, though that is a few points better than his full figures for 2006. I got a sneak-peek at the Hardball Times predictions for 2007 [I'm doing the AZ preview for them] and they had the following expectations for the two players:
    Tracy - .284/.349/.483 = .832 OPS, 14 HR
    Reynolds - .252/.317/.462 = .779 OPS, 22 HR

    shoewizard's projections are similar; the gap is narrower, but it appears Tracy is the better bet.

    Of course, the question of platooning comes to mind again with regard to this, and the degree to which Tracy is protected from facing left-handed pitchers will likely have a significant impact on the results obtained. Ideally, we'd like to clone Tracy, and use him at first and third against a right-hander, because his career OPS is a cool 271 points better that way. Mark Reynolds, unlike Jackson, doesn't show much of a split; in fact, his OPS against LHP was 34 points better, the reverse of what you'd expect from a right-handed batter. It would thus perhaps make sense to have Jackson at 1B and Reynolds at 3B when facing left-handed pitching, but Tracy at 1B and Reynolds at 3B against righties.

    However, those same Hardball Times predictions give Jackson a line of .295/.375/.476 - better than both Tracy and Reynolds - so we probably want to get his bat into the line often too. It's a very interesting dilemma, compounded by the fact that, of our regular starting lineup, only Drew is a left-handed bat, so opposing managers will be throwing LHP at us wherever possible. In addition to Tracy, we would likely have Salazar and Montero as southpaw options off the bench, and Ojeda as a switch-hitter. But at the risk of stating the bleedin' obvious, none of them are likely to be able to man the corner-infield spots, except in a dire emergency.

So, it's clear that, while we may have addressed the elephant in the corner of the room over the past couple of days, and solidified the rotation, the work is far from over for Josh Byrnes and his crew. The moves to be made will almost certainly be nowhere near as spectacular, but they will likely be almost as of much importance with regard to our chances in 2008.

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  1.  Who cares?  Looking at it, we have at least 4 guys, 5 with Slaten, that were pretty good at getting guys out last year.  I suspect it'll be Pena, but I'm not worried about it.
  2.  I agree with Nippert and EdGon being the frontrunners.  Bill Murphy did well in Tucson last year and we have a few other youngsters that may contend.  Something tells me we'll see Scherzer at some point.
  3.  Get Petit out of here.  I'd rather see EdGon, Murphy, or even Nippert given a shot first.  Hell, I'd rather see Chad Qualls turned back into a starter before I have to watch Petit get lit up again.
  4.  Chris Carter?  I'm not as worried about 3rd as Ojeda can play there.  I know he's right handed, but I think Andy Phillips is the best 1b FA out there right now.  My top lefty would be Mark Sweeney.  Otherwise, I guess we could take a gamble on Wilkerson.
  5.  Knowing Melvin, it'll be a hot hand situation of sorts.  I'm not too worried about this as I don't think Tracy plays until May or June, if at all.
Bob Melvin Sucks

by nihil67 on Dec 16, 2007 11:50 PM EST reply actions  

Lefty
I wonder what it would take to get Scott Hatteberg.

by Otacon on Dec 17, 2007 1:29 AM EST reply actions  

Hmm
Cincy is only on the hook for 1.85 mil for 2008 and they've got a rookie in Joey Votto that Baker may or may not trust.  It'd probably take more then he's worth.  Hatteberg's also about as good at first as David Ortiz.
Bob Melvin Sucks

by nihil67 on Dec 17, 2007 11:06 AM EST up reply actions  

Dusty Baker???
Trust rookies???  Yeah, right.  Hatteberg will probably gobble up 75% of the ABs.  It's not surprising either that Cincy has actively been dangling almost all of their young talent.  Dusty is good at clearing organizations out of young talent.

Great guy personally, but man am I glad he's not our manager.  We all think TC took too many ABs away from Jackson with BoMel at the helm.  Imagine if Dusty would've been steering the ship!

by johngordonma on Dec 17, 2007 12:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks, Jim
Now I have the Buffy musical stuck in my head.
I'm not superstitious- it's bad luck.

by kishi on Dec 17, 2007 3:27 AM EST reply actions  

BoMel
Got an extension to 2010.. I imagine some of you must be less than please with that, but I think that he does a good enough job. Though there are kids out there who can manage better in game ;)

by singaporedbacksfan on Dec 17, 2007 3:59 AM EST reply actions  

D-Backs, Melvin reach extension...
D-Backs, Melvin reach extension
Nick Piecoro
The Arizona Republic
Dec. 16, 2007 10:57 PM

The Diamondbacks and manager Bob Melvin have reached an agreement on a contract extension that will keep him in Arizona through 2010, a team source said Sunday night.

The reigning National League Manager of the Year was under contract for 2008 and had a team option for 2009. The option was picked up and the sides added another guaranteed year for 2010.

Melvin's club advanced to the NL Championship Series after winning the NL West. The Diamondbacks finished the regular season with a 90-72 record despite being outscored by 20 runs.

=]

by Muu on Dec 17, 2007 11:44 AM EST up reply actions  

I always thought
when he was healthy,Tracy at 1B,Reynolds at 3B seemed to work best.I have no hard facts to back it up though,just an impression.And Hammock as a general back up?
We will meet in Red 3 at the hour of scampering.

by hotclaws on Dec 17, 2007 2:12 PM EST reply actions  

What about CoJack
He needs to be on the field more than Tracy or Reynolds.  Tracy can get time in at both positions.  Really we don't know what Reynolds will do next year when he gets a full year in the show.  

by DiamondbacksWIn on Dec 17, 2007 5:15 PM EST up reply actions  

"Really we don't know what Reynolds...
...will do next year when he gets a full year in the show."

Maybe 35 bombs and 100 plus RBI?

by foulpole on Dec 17, 2007 7:03 PM EST up reply actions  

I hope you are right
but I am not going to hold my breath and it would be unfair to Reynolds to expect that out of him in his 1st full year.

by DiamondbacksWIn on Dec 18, 2007 4:37 PM EST up reply actions  

"when he was healthy,Tracy at ...
...1B,Reynolds at 3B seemed to work best."

Against RHP, I'd have to agree with you there.

by foulpole on Dec 17, 2007 7:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Qualls
Quake (as distinct from Quisp)
Qwicksand
Quagmire
Squall(s)

Though not a plague, calling him "Queue" might also be funny, as if he's one in a long line of relievers. Pronounced "Q" of course, thus tied to - and cleverly confused with - McCracken & Quentin :-)

by Diamondhacks on Dec 17, 2007 2:21 PM EST reply actions  

Now, if only we could trade...
...for that thing they call "fan support."

I'd send Petit and Robertson to Atlanta in exchange for their fan base.

I have to say, after the Byrnes' trades on Friday, (or was it Thursday?) I am salivating over watching our team this year. I don't think I've been this excited about the Dbacks since the 2001-2002 offseason.

Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Dec 17, 2007 2:45 PM EST reply actions  

What do you expect?
The franchise is 10 years old in a fickle and transplanted state.  
Stay grindy, my friends.

by soco on Dec 17, 2007 6:03 PM EST up reply actions  

The Atlanta fanbase?
The one known for not selling out games in the playoffs?
I'm not superstitious- it's bad luck.

by kishi on Dec 18, 2007 12:48 AM EST up reply actions  

Nah, you're thinking of the Arizona fanbase.
Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Dec 18, 2007 3:18 AM EST up reply actions  

Eh
I'm too lazy/sleepy to do a lot of Google Fu on it, but I did find this article on the clinching game of the 2001 NLDS:

"The Braves clinched before thousands of empty seats at Turner Field. The stands were about half-full at the start of the afternoon game, but late-arriving fans brought the announced attendance to 39,923 at the 50,091-seat ballpark."

Besides, didn't we do fine selling the NLDS this season?  Pay no attention to those Cubs fans lining up for tickets!  It's just, uh, camouflage!

I'm not superstitious- it's bad luck.

by kishi on Dec 18, 2007 4:25 AM EST up reply actions  

I'd be...
...much more concerned about the NLCS.
Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Dec 18, 2007 4:37 AM EST up reply actions  

There's different ways to judge
how good a fan base is, but in terms of recent playoff attendance, Phoenix consistently outdraws Atlanta. We both sellout when the Yankees and Cubs are in town, so that's not instructive. Beyond that, Dback fans have sold out - or virtually sold out - every playoff game here, with one glaring exception and that's 2001, when overall attendance suffered in the wake of 9/11. But even then, we outdrew Atlanta in the NLDS (they played Houston), and we outdrew them head to head in the NLCS, despite the fact our fans struggled to attend a hastily scheduled Gm1 on a weekday afternoon. A cool aspect of comparing playoff draw is that MLB sets the prices, so that doesnt muck up the analysis.  

In terms of regular season draw, Arizona significantly outdrew Atlanta during the Colangelo era, even during the 2004 collapse. After our new regime raised ticket prices in 2005, Atlanta dramatically bolted ahead of us and has never looked back. Compared to Phoenix, Atlanta is a bigger metro area with higher per capita income, and yet despite recently sustaining greater year to year success on the field, the Braves (according to Forbes) are one of a full dozen clubs with lower ticket prices than the Diamondbacks. So yeah, they've been drawing more during the regular season - but that's more a function of demographics and ticket pricing than it is of having "better" fans.

by Diamondhacks on Dec 18, 2007 5:16 PM EST up reply actions  

There you go again
After our new regime raised ticket prices in 2005, Atlanta dramatically bolted ahead of us and has never looked back

This had EVERYTHING to do with the collapse of 2004, which is what caused the steep drop in season ticket sales and overall attendance. The drop in attendance in 2005 had little if anything to do with ticket prices.

In terms of regular season draw, Arizona significantly outdrew Atlanta during the Colangelo era, even during the 2004 collapse.

2004 attendance stayed respectable because the season tickets had already been sold during the previous offseason.  

In most markets, the swings upwards and downwards have EVERYTHING to do with winning and losing. Of course getting  a new stadium will give a team a huge, if temporary boost. And certain large market teams do well win or lose.  But for mid market franchises, once the bump from a new stadium is no longer in effect, attendance is all about winning and losing, ESPECIALLY in Phoenix.

by shoewizard on Dec 18, 2007 5:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Ditto
The drop in attendance in 2005 had little if anything to do with ticket prices.

In most markets, the swings upwards and downwards have EVERYTHING to do with winning and losing.

It's fair to assume, from your use of capital letters, that you are quite confident prices dont matter much, and while you're certainly entitled to your opinion, I've decided to take instruction instead, from 200 years of classical economics and the incontrovertible law of supply and demand.

We all recognize that winning increases demand for tickets, but you're inflating that rather evident fact to imply that prices are inconsequential. Prices dont go away, my friend, neither are they independent from those other attendance factors you cite - they are the bedrock under which all those other things play out.

I guess what annoys me about your position, aside from the fact it sounds like boilerplate one might overhear from Derrick Hall between bites of wilted salad at The Lexus Club, is that you'll be sitting in very nice seats regardless of price, and for such a bright guy you seem curiously oblivious to the bloody obvious fact that most fans are more price sensitive than you are.

If you want evidence, look no further than the changes in 2008 ST prices. Has any other team in modern baseball history strategically cut ST prices 10-46% on tens of thousands of seats, on the heels of an NLCS campaign, completely unexpected by most fans? I suppose this is another one of their "rewards" programs or charity bonanzas ;-) It took these assholes 36 months to "admit" that these seats were ridiculously overpriced for this market, and even though Derrick predictably bends over backwards to suggest otherwise, I give em credit for finally doing a little something about it. The point is, at least on the ST side of things, these able profiteers realize they can drive attendance by lowering prices, drive it sufficiently to make up for the lower unit price and actually increase total revenues. Price matters, dude.

2004 attendance stayed respectable because the season tickets had already been sold during the previous offseason.

OK, but let's not overstate it to the exclusion of everything else. This was the glorious offseason when Jerry "invigorated" the ST base by dumping Schilling and placing third, 16 games out of contention ;-) The battered 111 loss monstrosity that followed, coming off a less than inspiring 2003, still drew 200K more fans than today's ascendant boys in the groovy red threads, who took over first place in July and were projected for the playoffs every single friggin' day thereafter.  

New stadium 'bump', you say? Spare me. The big bump ended during the Clinton administration.  Either the 2004-2007 teams enjoyed some residual bump, or they didnt. You cant have it both ways.

Oh, and I enjoyed the Reaganesque "there you go again" - lol - despite your ostensibly moderate, unaffiliated online persona, your politics (if not an undisclosed conflict of interest) are quite easily betrayed :-)

by Diamondhacks on Dec 18, 2007 9:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Alot of verbiage, very little honesty
Your initial post on this subject was nothing more than random potshots. Where in your post did you even remotely acknowledge that the disastrous losing season had ANYTHING to do with the downturn in the teams fortunes on the field? It wasn't there.  Your post clearly intimated the downturn in attendance was only because of a price increase.  You acknowledge it in your post above just now...but too late. I shouldn't have had to point it out, but with so little intellectual honesty being displayed, it becomes necessary. So spare us the B.S.  

The rest of your rhetoric, as always, exposes your hatred as the sole motivating factor for every shot you take at the people who run the organization. Once again, your slip is showing.

by shoewizard on Dec 18, 2007 9:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Embrace the truth
Where in your post did you even remotely acknowledge that the disastrous losing season had ANYTHING to do with the downturn in the teams fortunes on the field? It wasn't there.

In my original post, I did remotely mention the Dbacks' lack of on field sucess(relative to the Braves) as a factor in suppressing the gate:

Compared to Phoenix, Atlanta is a bigger metro area with higher per capita income, and yet despite recently sustaining greater year to year success on the field, the Braves (according to Forbes) are one of a full dozen clubs with lower ticket prices than the Diamondbacks. So yeah, they've been drawing more during the regular season...

Your problem isnt that I didnt mention it, you're problem is you dont like how I positioned pricing as an alternative and primary source of fan dissatisfaction, instead of aping your tired company line on the subject, about 2004, a fickle fan base,etc. Attendance sucked in 2005, attendance sucked in 2006, attendance sucked even worse in 2007, until after the ASG.

We've certainly received instruction as to why:  

[roll tape]

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh 2004! The horror of it all! It takes yeeearrrss to recover from that kind of fatal blow. Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh the fans are so godamn transient! They're not even real fans. How will we ever cope in this lethargic market ever again. Absolutely anything to shift responsibility away from your moneyball good time buddies, and the fact they've aggressively raised prices in the face of three consecutive losing seasons(2004-2006) and these other, just endlessly carped about, realities.

You seem unsatisfied unless I open with an earnest little paragraph about how terribly influential 2004 was. Well, screw that. That's all we ever hear. From the club. From you. Even in 2007, it's always about 2004. It's always the previous guy's fault. It's never about how demand for the product declined as "your guys" aggressively set prices only a masochist could love.

The truth is we'll never know what the isolated effect of the 111 losses was (it was obviously negative and significant) because your buds exacerbated what was already a bad situation in 2005, they made it worse in 2006 and they made it worse in 2007, until finally MLB's feelgood story of the year and some drastically reduced ticket packages(10 packs) stemmed their destructive, largely self-inflicted, tide.  

I have no problem mentioning 2004 or acknowledging "it". You're the one who refuses to acknowledge price. But I'll pass on the crusty tome decrying 2004, that suffocates any alternative literature.

by Diamondhacks on Dec 19, 2007 4:12 AM EST up reply actions  

By the way
Per TMR, the team's average ticket price ranked 18th in the majors in 2006.

http://www.teammarketing.com/fci.cfm?page=fci_mlb2006.cfm]

They haven't come out with their 2007 report yet. But clearly the d backs ticket prices are in the lower half of the major leagues.

I don't know if the team really makes that much profit, but most likely the profit they DO make goes towards paying off the deferred salary debt. They are getting close to done with that, but they aren't there yet.

You toss about words like "profiteer" like it's some kind of appropriate rebuke. Get clue. They are running a business, a business that hopefully DOES make money.

As for your comments about my politics: No comment.

Conflict of interest?  Please...if I worked for the Diamondbacks I wouldn't post on message boards. What is YOUR conflict of interest? Clearly you have one. Nobody could have this big an axe to grind without some kind of purpose behind it.

by shoewizard on Dec 18, 2007 10:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Arghh! Not the T M R. No! No! Anything but that!
But clearly the d backs ticket prices are in the lower half of the major leagues.

Wrong again, Shoelock. If you spent half as much time actually reading and understanding the links you spray indiscriminately under the guise of furthering knowledge, as you do cutting and pasting, we'd all be better off. The TMR is based on ST prices only, not overall prices, ignoring the Dbax unusually high single game markups, ignoring the Dbax unusually high # (20) of so-called "premier" games, etc,etc. Not that this is the most pressing question, but to your point, it's not at all clear the Dbacks are in the lower half.  

More germane, at least to me, is that whether the Dbacks rank 18th or 15th or 12th, is that Derrick Hall has crafted a brazenly untruthful sales campaign for more than a year now to convince local fans that they pay "the lowest" prices in all of MLB. Not 18th. Not 15th. THIRTIETH. It is a deliberate, mendacious, ongoing campaign of lies that reflects poorly on the organization and I have said so. What's your take on it, shoe? Being that a) you're intelligent b) opine freely on every conceivable Dbax matter known to man and God, and c) you presumably have  no conflict of interest. Please link me to your considered screed on this blatant injustice ;-)

As far as conflict of interest, I didnt necessarily assume you work for the Dbacks (although it's crossed my mind), but it's painfully obvious that you are an "insider" or desperately want to be one - in terms of credibility it really doesnt matter to me which.

I think you're a cogent writer who often adds a good deal to the discussions - at other times, like here, I find your compulsive need to frame the big economic debates, in more or less direct alignment with the club's spinmeisters, to be surprisngly uninformed, suspiciously entrenched and, given that they already frame the debates thusly, completely unnecessary.  

Since, unlike you, I have utterly no desire to titter away at Jeff Moorad's bad jokes (or Jerry Colangelo's for that matter), I dont think I harbor any conflict of interest, but I'll cop to having "a purpose", which is to get at the truth. Look, I'm not being coy. I know full well what pisses you off about my style, but try to understand that much of it is in response to a system where the corporation deftly controls the lion's share of information. This is especially true locally, thanks in no small measure to influential online folks like yourself.  

Whenever I see influential 'independents' play fanboy and downplay dissent with corporate talking points and paternalistic bromides especially on the big economic issues, I bristle because, even if you're sincere, you're doing local fans a disservice by reinforcing the dominant corporate voice - one that even in the best of circumstances is self interested and profit oriented. If you're really after the truth, I invite you to periodically dislodge yourself from Mr Kendrick's rectum at least long enough to publicly challenge his creative salesmen about issues beyond dubious personnel moves, like the Eric Byrnes contract. Maybe if you did that a little more often, I wouldnt feel compelled to.

If my reactive style isnt your cup of tea, that's fine, but the fact you've failed to muster any rebuttal to my pricing argument whatever, is what's important. I've established that price drives attendance and that Derrick Hall is a liar. You've established that you dont like me. Congratulations.

by Diamondhacks on Dec 19, 2007 2:36 AM EST up reply actions  

Dissent?
You do know we are discussing a privately owned business engaged in sports entertainment, right?  This is not a Government. There is nothing to "dissent" against. Your attendance at games, viewership on T.V, participation in MLB sponsored blog sites and message boards, is all voluntary. Furthermore, the Diamondbacks organization has no authority or influence over your life in any way, other than that which you invite in yourself.

For the last 3+ years you have engaged in nonstop attacks. There is not one thing this ownership and management team has  said or done that you have not criticized in the most strident and hateful of terms.  Furthermore, there is not one thing this organization has said or done that is praiseworthy, according to you. If the ratio of "good to bad" was even 5-1 to 10-1, it would lend some credibility to your complaints.  

But there is no balance here. If there were, I would not feel the need to counter your rants by pointing out you have an agenda. Has this organization made mistakes?  Yes. Do I believe every word they put out as the gospel truth, either in part or in whole?  No of course not.
However you portray them as the most evil, unethical, vilest pond scum that ever dared step foot into this state.

You throw out words and accusations without responsibility:

Profiteers:

Profiteering is a pejorative term for the act of making a profit by methods considered unethical.

Well, maybe you consider raising or lowering their ticket prices unethical. It's their product, they can price it and market it as they see fit. You are free not to buy. But there is nothing "unethical" in the way they conduct their business, AKAIK.  Are they falsely reporting income to the IRS, cheating on taxes, selling tickets and then not putting on a game....etc...etc.?

I would suggest you consider wisely such accusations of unethical practices, unless you have  actual evidence of unethical or criminal wrong doing you are willing to present. (That is not a "veiled threat" in any way, so don't run with that comment. I have no standing or authority in anything. It's just sound advice)

So lets dispense with the rhetoric. Lets get down to the truth:

Your non stop tirade began when Colangelo was pushed out. So I ask you:  What is YOUR conflict of interest?  Are you a member of the Colangelo family? A close friend?  Have you ever had direct dealings with Ken Kendrick on any level?  Did you ever work for him? Enter into a business arrangement with him?

What is it that sent you off the deep end? What is the root of your beef?  

Please, don't bore us with a litany of trumped up charges. We know you are clever, and a very good writer, and have excellent debate skills. But this isn't about pricing structure, or charity, or anything else that you may choose as your vehicle for expressing your anger and hatred of this ownership.

C'mon....give it to us straight.  It will be cathartic.

by shoewizard on Dec 19, 2007 3:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Psychoanalysis / Disclosure
There is nothing to "dissent" against.

Wow. I'm really glad you said this because it exposes a vital difference between us that I've been trying to elucidate - and suggests our fundamental quarrel might be less about this integrity/ conflict of interest pissfest and more about politics.

There is nothing to "dissent" against. Again. Wow. Do you feel that if one is dissatisfied with a private enterprise, that one's role should be to simply shop elsewhere ( in this case, for entertainment), and not make a fuss, because the enterprise cant legally oppress you like a govt can?

While baseball can reasonably be seen as just one of several entertainment choices, if you're a baseball fan, like us, the local team is a kind of monopoly, without meaningful competition. To your point, if this was a Blimpie outlet, I'd reserve my right to protest bad service, but at least I could take my business down the street and eventually shut up about it :-)  It's different letting go of baseball. It's a monopoly and my investment (financial & emotional) is much greater. Exiting gently into that good night is, to paraphrase Gonzo, "not an option". The other option you've bestowed is to more or less accept/enjoy MLB and the Dbacks, warts and all, without getting too uppity about anything intrinsically economic or structural - essentially, to love it or leave it.  

Maybe you find those choices satisfying and comprehensive, but I dont. I've chosen a third, dare I say distinctly American option, which is to vocally protest club moves that I sincerely feel have diminished customer satisfaction for a quasi-private product that I have helped finance via my taxes and patronage.

Do you honestly think that private entities should be spared the online wrath of unhappy customers because transgressions dont rise to the level of govt oppression or coercion? Union Carbide ring a bell? Bridgestone? I would never seriously entertain that Derrick Hall rises to that level, but your argument that private business s/b categorically immune from forceful, even strident, criticism is flawed, revealing, and, in all candor, kind of alarming.

you portray them as the most evil, unethical, vilest pond scum that ever dared step foot into this state.

Again, I think this kind of hyperbole just underscores how uncomfortable you are with dissent and criticism, generally, and where you're at on the spectrum of corporate fidelity. When it comes to sabermetrics, even though I dont always agree with you, you generally sound like a level headed, easy going guy. But when the subject turns to what might loosely be termed corporate integrity (sorry, I cant think of a better word, though I'm sure there is one) and corp vs the individual issues, you change skins and get uncharacteristically defensive. When fans got upset about the new colors, it wasnt enough to merely disagree with them, you had to paint them as unworthy, as non-fans. When people suggest the club open up their pursestrings beyond what they have already, you seethe about overextended Americans, ignorantly demanding it all. You recoil against any suggestion that the FO (or more generally MLB) was in any way responsible for lagging attendance, but are very quick to blame fellow Phoenicians for not getting with "the program". You feel compelled to turn public opinion when it's at odds with corporate policy, even if it means bullying ordinary people - and it's not very becoming. I may have contempt for particular front office tactics, but you, sir, IMHO, harbor contempt for ordinary people.

There is not one thing this ownership and management team has said or done that you have not criticized in the most strident and hateful of terms.  Furthermore, there is not one thing this organization has said or done that is praiseworthy, according to you.

Totally untrue in both spirit and fact. You really ought to subscribe to my newsletter to prevent further such "hateful and outrageous" claims ;-) Just off the top of my head, I praised Kendrick for having JC throw out the NLDS ball, I praised Moorad for his measured postgame comments after the clincher in Pittsburgh, I praised the org for $20 seats in the Diamond Level in the heat of a pennant race and I praise players and moves by Josh Byrnes on a regular basis. IIRC, I was the first local blogger to call the NL MOTY for Bob Melvin, way back on Sept 7th. In this very thread, I credited the FO for reducing ST prices in certain sections that were overpriced for a long time. So, coming from somone who complains that I go overboard, your claim is just ponderous nonsense, shoe. I'm just not "balanced" enough for your Fox News sensibilities, which as far as I can tell, is an 80/20 gung ho split in favor of whatever the hell these shysters run up the flagpole. You were in sales, right? It's clear from your unwillingness to castigate Hall's behavior in any spirited way, despite several open invitations to do so, that we dont share the same definition of 'ethical business practice'.

Imagine if you will, that a reporter in a high ticket town like New York or Chicago asked the Cubs or Mets Pres. why tickets were so expensive, and instead of responding with the usual, about  supply and demand, or charging what the market will bear, or saying his tix cost less than a Knicks game, this Pres. got up during a ballgame, on WGN or WPIX and said, "oh, no, our tickets arent expensive at all. Cubs tickets actually rank 15th in MLB pricing, so when you said we had the third highest prices you were grossly misinformed". And lets say he did this online, and at several other games, and had his broadcasting team reinforce this message. My question is, what do you think the press in CHI or NY would do to that guy? Answer: they would, quite justifiably, chew him up and spit him out. If he continued the nonsense, public pressure would mount, quite justifiably, for him to be removed as spokesman. This is essentially what Hall has orchestrated and, much to my chagrin, I appear to be the sole voice locally even bringing it up. I find that disappointing and even a little disturbing.    

You throw out words and accusations without responsibility

Well, I'm happy to review any claims on a case by case basis, but again, I disagree with the general spirit of what you're trying to say. I took a nasty potshot at Jim a while back that I regret. I made a remark about Kendrick back in 2005 that perhaps I should revisit, but generally speaking, as you know, I'm quite careful about how I word things. What you may not know, is that I actually take the concept of fairness quite seriously - but see the informational playing field differently than you do. Profiteer? You're hung up on profiteer? I meant profiteer exactly as you defined it and, trust me, have zero qualms about its usage.

And for the record, I've never accused this FO of any kind of tax crime. I've accused them of consistently misleading the public on a variety of issues, beyond what I'd call ethical salesmanship, and from that, I've suggested that perhaps they shouldnt be given the benefit of the doubt on some more serious issues. Mr Kendrick can corral MacGruder about transferring $5M of payroll between the 07 and 08 buckets, but if I suggest the possibility of a similar transfer between charitable buckets (an internal transfer and in no way a crime) by an org that lies about their pricing structure and misleads the public as to the impetus for several of their programs and policies, then my suggestions/suspicions, on a blog for goodness sake, are histrionically mischaracterized as legally binding accusations and I'm cast as an irresponsible demogogue.  

...maybe you consider raising or lowering their ticket prices unethical

Huh? Another strawman alert :-)

Your non stop tirade began when Colangelo was pushed out.

To clarify, I started blogging during the end of the Colangelo era, and it might surprise you to learn that, early on, I rubbed Jerry's face in it fairly regularly. It is true that this 'non-stop tirade' accelerated after the ouster, but your insistent implication that that's necessarily due to some sort of conflict of interest, business or family ties, or predetermined favoritism, is misplaced to the point of being amusing.

It accelerated because the new FO provided a wealth of ammo for me to skewer them with, more than I ever would have imagined back in 2004. Partly policy changes and some poor customer service experiences, but mostly on the public relations side, especially after Derrick comandeered the organizational spotlight and unleashed his signature torrent of Orwellian doublespeak. In my mind, his stuff is just begging to be attacked, and while some of my pre-Hall rants might've seemed more forced or contrived, since Derrick's arrival, alot of the  vitriol and satire pretty much wrote itself.  

In the interests of disclosure regarding "motives", I did have some poor customer service experiences under the new FO, some of which I've written about, most of which occured considerably after the "tirade" took off. It's part of what fueled my disdain towards the FO, but there's nothing scarring or mysterious there I'm trying to hide. I was, on several levels, a dissatisfied customer, just inundated with a goldmine of fodder to write about.

Finally, I think all writing, no matter how heartfelt, has a certain self aggrandizing quality to it. We bop back n forth online, in part, to show each other how smart we are. I'm no different. I dont wanna play the self righteous journalist card too hard here, and fully understand there's an entertainment component of tweaking the FO's nose, both for readers and myself, especially in terms of how one executes a given piece. But the underlying dissatisfaction, with MLB generally, some of this FOs stances in particular, and an unusually flaccid, enabling local media, is totally sincere.  

Believe it or not :-)  

by Diamondhacks on Dec 20, 2007 3:05 AM EST up reply actions  

The Diamondbacks
aren't the only baseball in town, you know.  You could go to ASU games, or AZFL or the summer league,  or even one of the many Maricopa Community Colleges that have a baseball team.  You have a choice, as a baseball fan, to choose which "league" you support, even if most of these aren't the near the majors.  It's the same that if you want to you don't have to support your local NBA team, but instead can go to an NCAA game, or ABA (Phoenix is supposed to be getting one next year, we'll see how that works out).
Stay grindy, my friends.

by soco on Dec 20, 2007 8:51 AM EST up reply actions  

Your response on Dissent anticipated
The Diamondbacks are not a public utility providing a vital service. They are not a drugmaker, selling a product that we will put in our bodies to ostensibly "cure" us. They are not manufacturing dangerous polluting chemicals such as a Union Carbide.

Providing sports entertainment is simply not on the same level. Now if you were to focus your considerable talents upon one  of them, I would be backing you all the way, because those entities have the ability to hurt me.

The D backs?  It's just baseball, so not so much.

I admit I have not read every word you've written over the last 3+ years, and I am certainly not about to subscribe to your "news letter".  But everything I have read has been so one sided, so vitrolic, and so accusatory as to rob it of any utility.

As for the rest....well...I've said my piece. Carry on.

by shoewizard on Dec 20, 2007 9:25 AM EST up reply actions  

Attendance does not equal Fan Interest
[ In terms of regular season draw, Arizona significantly outdrew Atlanta during the Colangelo era, even during the 2004 collapse. ]

The obvious difference between the two teams is that Arizona won the World Series in 2001. That had an immediate knock-on effect: in Baseball Between the Numbers, they estimate that the "honeymoon effect" of a new stadium lasts about three years. Seems plausible enough to me that the "honeymoon effect" of a World Series could well last about the same time.

The evidence seems to back this up. After winning the World Series in 2002, the Angels saw an immediate spike in attendance for 2003, a further boost in 2004, a marginal increase in 2005, little or no change in 2006 and a decline in 2007. Maybe four years there, tops. But on the other hand, the Marlins, after the 2003 World Series, saw a 30% increase in 2004 and 2005, but 2006 was back down below the 2003 level. Two years of boost. In Arizona, 2002 and 2003 were better than the World Series year, but 2004 started the slide - and, let's face it, the season was like swigging raw sewage after the champagne of 2001, and washed any taste of success right out of fans' mouths. THAT would have been the time to slash prices, IMHO.

Certainly, any claims that the higher attendance figures for 2004 [and I'd be fascinated to see the numbers for actual people through the gates, as from what I recall, a lot of the supposed "31,000" there per game must have come dressed as empty seats] reflect anything significant as far as actual interest in or attachment to the team, would seem to be on somewhat shaky ground at best. Because attendance simply does not equal fan interest: we outdrew the Red Sox in the Championship Series this year by 10,000 per game. Does that mean anything - except that we have a bigger stadium?

by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2007 1:27 AM EST up reply actions  

You Make Alot of Points
and every one of them is entirely reasonable.  

Attendance does not equal Fan Interest

totally agree. As I mentioned to Devin, there are many ways to assess a fan base, and I dont know what half of them are. I'm not beholden to attendance at all, but examined it because that's kinda what he and Skins were batting around at the time. For example, I think COL has a good fan base, even though they havent drawn well, even with low prices! It's damn cold and they've had squat to cheer for until this year - but they've always been good fans, IMO.

Your magnitude of bump or honeymoon for the WS sounds reasonable (and well documnted) :-) Jerry outdrew ATL every single year except one - what's funny is it was 2001, which was also ATL's worst W/L record of the era. So lags and bumps for stadiums and WS victories obviously exist. The only counterpoint I'd offer regarding the comparative cities during this time is that while ATL didnt win a WS, they played in one(1999) and their regular season success was just phenomenal...way better than ours. Win totals between 1998 and 2004:

106
103
95
88
101
101
96

And, for whatever combination of reasons, stadium, WS victory, prices, comparative fan base, whatever, we still outdrew 'em. Even in 2004.

Are you saying you think Jerry should've cut prices after 2003? He could've I suppose, but it was an 84-78 season - on a 10 pt culpability scale I'd give that a 2 or 3 tops. The 2004 season, after the injuries, was akin to a fraud. People wanted their money back. And, frankly, I was just stunned by the FOs lack of responsiveness to customers' feeling of betrayal. It was Jerry's fault, not theirs, so they didnt  do anything to win customers back. Amazing. A 9 or a 10, IMO.

Re 2004 no shows, it was pretty empty late in the year, IIRC. They closed alot of the upper deck concessions which added to that ghost town feel. Earlier though, I think it was fairly lively. The Yankees came to town and that was hopping. I never dressed as an empty seat, but I did smuggle a paper bag in once and wore it over my head.

Strangers took pictures. It was fun.

by Diamondhacks on Dec 19, 2007 5:28 AM EST up reply actions  

I guess I don't get it
why worry about these other people?  It takes time to build a fan base, and even then that's not a guarantee.  Just enjoy the game and stop worrying about what other people are doing.
Stay grindy, my friends.

by soco on Dec 18, 2007 9:36 AM EST up reply actions  

Fairly inauspicious start to Death's 'Stros career
From the Houston Chronicle:

Fist pumps a problem
Berkman said Valverde's fist pumps and antics on the mound didn't sit well with some Astros.

"Valverde had a good year last year, but I am not going to lie," Berkman said. "I am definitely concerned about his antics. He's one of the more demonstrative pitchers in the league, and I know that from playing against him that rubs guys the wrong way.

"It reflects poorly on the team and doesn't do anything but give the opposing team fuel for the next time he goes out. I hope those issues are addressed. This team might take awhile from a chemistry standpoint to get together.

"I may not be right about that. We may get in there and everybody clicks, but I do know we had great chemistry in the clubhouse before, and that's a question mark going into the season."

Um... Lance? How bout you try losing some weight and actually practicing for once, before you worry about Papa Grande's fist pump? Maybe it rubbed you guys the wrong way because he was striking out the side?

Incidentally, criticizing your new teammate through the media is NOT a good way to get together, chemistry-wise. By the way, chemistry won you a lot of games last year, didn't it?

Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Dec 18, 2007 3:23 AM EST reply actions  

Good questions Jim
I attempted to address some of these question here

1.) Unless he messes it up with poor spring performance, I believe the closers job will go to Pena

2.) Other Bullpen Roles

8th: Lyon
7th: Qualls
6th & 7th: Cruz
Situational lefty: Slaten
Come from behind man: Nippert (Sounds better than "mop up")
Swing man, long reliever:  Edgar

3.) 6th Starter:  Wide open. I don't have any confidence that Petit will stick as a major league starter. He is just too fly ball/homer prone. Edgar featured a 2 seamer with some downward sink over the second half and increased his GB rate and reduced his HR rate.  He might be able to take a step forward.  One of the new guys, like Buckner or Guitierrez might step up. And of course Max Scherzer could make his move sooner than expected. I think it will be a very fluid situations, and all of these guys might get a start or two at some point, and if any of them gets on a role, the team will of course stick with the hot hand.

4.) Tracy's health: I think they'll know by mid/late  February if Tracy is on any kind of a time table that will allow him to start the season on the 25 man roster. It would seem unlikely he will make it back that soon however.  I actually kind of like Wilkerson as a left handed power bat off the bench to spell CJ on occasion. Not sure what he would cost though.  I guess it will all come down to who might still be available  come February.  I wouldn't even rule out a possible one year deal for Clark if he is not signed by some other team by then.

5.) If Tracy IS healthy, then he will get plenty of at bats against righties and take plenty away from CJ.  At this point it doesn't seem like they are counting on Tracy to play ANY 3rd base....although I hope that he is able to, as Reynolds is going to be prone to slumps and is going to need a blow once in a while.

I am wondering if they are considering having Burke take some groundballs at 3rd.  Augie hasn't played any significant time at 3rd since 2001, and he didn't get very good results.

OH....one last thing: About CJ's "splits" vs. right handed pitching:  In his minor league career he hit righties just fine, about equal to how he hit lefties,  and in 2006 he had a .808 OPS vs. righties and a .810 OPS vs. lefties.

The reason his split in 2007 looks so great is because he got better over the second half, and just happened to be seeing more lefties in the second half.  His numbers didn't get better BECAUSE he was seeing lefties.

Also, Clark hurt his shoulder in the batting cage during the season, and it hurt to swing right handed. Basically the ONLY at bats Melvin could give him were against righties, so of course he went with the Platoon advantage. CJ's wrist took a long time to heal as well, and he needed extra days off.

But Jackson hits righties just fine, almost as well as he does lefties.

by shoewizard on Dec 18, 2007 12:07 PM EST reply actions  

The NL West Arms Race
From the AP article about Kuroda signing with the Dodgers:

Colletti said last week he hadn't seen Kuroda pitch in person, but added: "The right people have seen him. What do I like about him? He's a good pitcher. He has some of the great attributes we admire in a pitcher."

Anyone else think it sounds like Colletti doesn't know a thing about Kuroda? It lends further credence to the thought that the Dodgers rushed out and jacked up their offer as soon as we landed Haren. Would have been almost orgasmic to get both pitchers but I don't think anyone believed we would after the trade with the A's. (Except, perhaps, for LA)

Either way, I think Haren is the better pitcher.

Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2007 2:51 AM EST reply actions  

Haren > Kuroda
ZiPS would seem to agree, FWIW.  The line they have on Haren is in the same range that I've written down for him.  I have him giving up 32 homers, striking out 195, having a WHIP of 1.20, and having an ERA of 4.  Nearly same line he posted in 2006, with more K's.

2008 ZiPS Projection - Danny Haren
-----------------------------------------------------------------
            W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA   ERA+
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Projection 14  11  33  33  216  214   94  27  46 177  3.92   120

2008 ZiPS Projection - Hiroki Kuroda
-----------------------------------------------------------------
            W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA   ERA+
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Projection 12   9  26  26  180  186   79  21  37 114  3.92   115

Bob Melvin Sucks

by nihil67 on Dec 20, 2007 2:19 PM EST up reply actions  

My concern about Kuroda
stems from a youtube shoe or someone(I forget who) linked recently. In it, Kuroda strikes out HMatsui in a nine minute AB. Far as I can tell, the tape is real time, and Kuroda averages 45 seconds between pitches. MLB wont afford him nearly such a leisurely pace, and I suspect his legendary stamina may not translate well in America.  

Either way, I think Haren is the better pitcher.

I agree and certainly hope so. We "paid" more for him :-)

The Dodgers sure make alot of stupid moves. It almost lulls one into thinking a move must be stupid, just because they made it. But with their resources, they're always a looming threat, like Sauron or Voldemort, never quite dead, a latent threat to all that's good in this world.

by Diamondhacks on Dec 20, 2007 11:52 AM EST reply actions  

Revised Projections
I revised my projections today for both hitters and pitchers. They will be up on DBBP late tonight. Tracy takes a hit in both playing time and performance, due to his latest setback. CJ and Reynolds get bumps in playing time and counting stats, but not rate stats.  Burke is plugged in, Callaspo and Quentin removed.

On the pitching front, Haren  Qualls hasve been added, Valverde removed, and the rest of the starts and relief innings apportioned accordingly. So late tonight or early tmw head over and look for hitter and pitcher projections threads for the latest spreadsheets.

by shoewizard on Dec 22, 2007 9:34 PM EST reply actions  

Interesting
I'm kind of surprised by the Qualls prediction.  Why is he giving up so many runs with basically the same ratios as Lyon?

I love the Byrnes prediction.

Bob Melvin Sucks

by nihil67 on Dec 23, 2007 9:06 AM EST up reply actions  

Good question
First of all I should clarify for the sake of expediency I basically plugged ZIPS in there for Qualls and Haren so I could get a quick and dirty on how it would affect the team overall. Any projection I would come up with is likely to be fairly close to ZIPS  anyway.  All of the rest of the projections are my own.

The projection shows them BOTH  with almost the exact same FIP, and both beating their FIP.  Lyon beats his by a bit more simply because he has more experience pitching in Chase Field, and is likely to be less homer prone.

Remember these are such small innings totals, just 3 more ER would give Lyon the same ERA as Qualls.

Also you might note that most guys are beating their FIP somewhat.  That is because the D backs had a good defensive team last year, and I expect them to be as good or better in 2008. Especially I expect Young and Upton to be MUCH better.  Got my fingers crossed with CJ.  ;-)

by shoewizard on Dec 23, 2007 8:14 PM EST reply actions  

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