The Dangerfield D-backs: We Don't Get No Respect
One of my SB Nation colleagues, Jay from Let's Go, Tribe got a nice job helping cover the post-season baseball for Esquire. However, in a preview, he wrote the following about the Cubs-Diamondbacks match-up:
Naturally, I was not happy with this view, and expressed my objections to Jay, pointing out things like the 49-1 differential in four blow-outs. He back-pedalled initially, and in fact, showed a degree of flip-floppery more appropriate to a Presidential candidate, by saying we were "a young, interesting and fast-improving team" - a sharp contrast to calling us "unimpressive" in his original entry. But he has gone back on the attack in his latest piece:
Well, the blowouts may distort the numbers, they're not good, and even if we throw out some "meaningless" runs, you still end up with a team that only scored one run on those four days while their pitchers got hammered. And the D'backs' bullpen patterns aren't all that different from all the other teams. The Diamondbacks got enormously lucky this season, to a degree that nearly always portends a huge step back in the next year.
Ah, yes: the old "the Diamondbacks were just lucky" argument. First, this demonstrates a basic misunderstanding, very common among statheads, about the game of baseball. It's not about having the highest team batting average. It's not about posting the best run-differential. The game is decided simply by scoring more runs than your opponent on the day. That is the only measure of "best" which actually means anything, because playoff spots are not awarded on the basis of Pythagorean Projections.
Certainly, you can look at other factors, to analyze where and how a team is performing,. But claiming the Diamondbacks are not a good team is like saying Bill Gates isn't rich because he drives a Lexus. You can look at someone's car, and it might give you a good idea of how rich they are - though why bother, when you can just look at their bank-account? Ditto baseball: while secondary stats are nice, using them to judge how "good" a team is folly.
Item #1. If the Diamondbacks were a 79-win team, as Pythagoras believes, this binomial calculator gives them only a 4.9% chance of reaching 90 wins. Item #2. Baseball Prospectus predicted a 7.0% chance of us sweeping the Cubs. Combining these two, the odds of both happening is one in 289. Really, there's a point at which blaming "luck" in the face of relentless evidence goes beyond stubborness, and begins to drift into idiocy. A good scientist, when the evidence piles up against them, will admit that their theory is flawed, and will begin to look around for a better theory. Jay, however, seems to feel that when the facts disagree with his theory, the facts must be disposed of. Blaming "luck" for an 11-game differential - especially two seasons after the same manager, for the same franchise, posted exactly the same improvement - is like continuing to play poker after your opponent gets three royal flushes in a row. There's a certain point beyond which it's time to check the deck.
Meanwhile, the Arizona Diamondbacks laugh, move along, and keep right on winning. To quote the great philosopher Eric Byrnes, "Sometimes every now and then there are teams out there that defy the numbers. We seem to be one of those teams. This is one of those things you can't really explain other than the fact that there are 25 guys in here who know how to win baseball games." Rather than whining about this, and saying the playoffs "deserve better", I would think any neutral fan would celebrate the team's slaughtering of the Run Differential sacred cow. Because sometimes, a reminder that we really don't know everything, is a refreshing thing.
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Hear, hear
And this is the best entry I have read so far. Simply put, while baseball is a game of numbers, it is not JUST a game of numbers. It is a game of numbers on any given day. The DBacks are an exciting, young team, who find ways to win(Anyone who sweeps the Cubs is tops in my books). And that is what baseball is. Who can win on a given day. (And I understand this methodology, I am a fan of the 2006 World Champions who are only that because they got hot at all the right times last year).
I am a stathead, so I know all of statistics that say the DBacks are a subpar contender. But I am also a student of the game, and a college baseball player. Stats are important and often time, CAN tell the story of a team. But when a team finds success despite these stats, that's true baseball: Finding a way to win. Through small ball, hustle, or timely run support. Just win. Which the DBacks do.
So I guess I'm saying: great post. And let's go DBacks! ... at least for the rest of this season.
by BMikel1 on Oct 8, 2007 12:21 PM EDT 0 recs
You're very welcome here!
Nothing would make us more pleased than sticking it to all the "sage prognosticators" who want to talk down to the NL, and especially the Dbacks and Rockies. (How 'bout them ESPN writers, eight of whom out of ten picked the Cubs to win the NLDS!!)
by DbacksSkins on
Oct 8, 2007 1:31 PM EDT
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Clearly, we were JUST lucky. For 90 games.
Regarding the Esquire article, we were discussing the same thing at Purple Row. I think I'll just copy and paste my post from over there:
Well, the headline is 'Sox Win! Phillies Lose.'
I think that's all you need to read to know that it's going to be east coast centric. The next blog post is, 'Cubs lose a close one'. He mentions the outcomes in terms of the Phillies, Red Sox and Cubs; as if the Rockies, Angels and Dbacks had nothing to do with any of it.
Idiotic media. And now they get to pay, by having to watch an all-unknown NLCS.
DbacksSkins... I hail from here and here.
by SouthByTheBorder on Mon Oct 08, 2007 at 01:32:41 AM PDT
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Let's go, Dbacks. Heck, now that the Rockies are the other NLCS team, we're still getting no respect.
We won the NL West for a reason, dipshits.
by DbacksSkins on Oct 8, 2007 1:35 PM EDT 0 recs
Another item that nobody wants to talk about...
by DbacksSkins on
Oct 8, 2007 1:38 PM EDT
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Unbelievable
Whining that a team shouldn't be in the playoffs, doesn't deserve to be in the playoffs, whatever, is a whole new level of stupidity. Like it or not, the DBacks, and hey, guess what, the Rockies won 90 games in a division where the third place team won 89 games and the fourth place team was over .500.
Everyone's said what's on my mind, which is, look, the team had a weird statistical year, but still won 90 games in the toughest division in baseball! That qualifies them as being a good team.
Compare that to the Indians, who won 96 but in a division where their opponents won 24 fewer games than opponents in the NL West, or the Sox, who won 96 where opponents won 20 fewer games, and you'll see that the DBacks and Rockies are very good baseball teams and do deserve to be there, maybe more so than teams in the ALCS. Because I'll tell you this: playing in the NL Central and maybe the East as well, is it a stretch to say that any one of these teams would have won 100 games?
by potterhead4 on Oct 8, 2007 2:53 PM EDT 0 recs
Oh... and just in case you missed it,
by DbacksSkins on Oct 8, 2007 3:00 PM EDT 0 recs
now we're having some fun
I hope to come back later and really go into more detail with this -- on Esquire.com, there is less opportunity to really go in-depth and get the nuance of some issues, both because of length and audience. There is a very interesting debate in this -- though I hope you can drop the stupid "flip-flop" references. I have not flip-flopped, and it's a cheap debating trick, beneath both of us.
For now, I just want to clear up a few misconceptions.
- Scott and I are both from the Cleveland area. You may enjoy dismissing criticisms as East Coast bias, but it doesn't make any sense in our case.
- Scott and I are not the same person. He's saying some stuff, and I'm saying other stuff. It's clearly marked -- another sign that we have some "critics" who don't actually read what we wrote. I won't defend everything he wrote, but I would defend some of it.
- I picked the Rockies, even though I now live in Philadelphia and somewhat root for the Phillies. (How's that for bias?)
- Scott also picked the Rockies -- again, did the critics even read any of what we wrote?
- I never said the D'backs were boring, even though the excerpt above makes it look like I did. That part about feeling drowsy was not about the D'backs, it was about the constant, same-old national TV coverage of the Cubs that I expected to see. (Again, go read the article, you'll see.)
- Just for the record, I started talking favorably about the D'backs in my very next post. I made a point of not making a pick, but I would have picked them. It was, in fact, the first substantive thing I said about either team.
I like the Diamondbacks lineup. It's fun to watch a young, talented team, because there's an X-factor in not knowing if they're developing right there in front of you. (That also makes them harder to scout.) Young, Drew and Reynolds could all be great players, even if they're not yet, and they all showed signs of maturing as hitters over the course of the season. Granted, you kind of have to squint to see it in Drew's case, but it's there.
Maybe some other "mainstream writer" also made those observations, but I never saw them anywhere.
7. I hate big-payroll rent-a-player teams -- probably a lot more than you. Geez, I'm an Indians fan, we're playing the Yankees, do you really have to ask whether I'd root for the D'backs or Cubs? Think about it.
My final comment for the moment is that I know we have the best possible NLCS matchup ahead of us now, and as a fan, that pleases me a great deal.
by Jay on Oct 8, 2007 3:00 PM EDT 0 recs
Scott?
by nihil67 on
Oct 8, 2007 5:47 PM EDT
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clarifying
The other entries are joint efforts, with each section labeled by author.
by Jay on
Oct 8, 2007 6:22 PM EDT
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Appreciate you stopping by
Anyway, look forward to hear a full response in due course, though I appreciate you probably have more important things to do right at the moment. :-)
by Jim McLennan on
Oct 8, 2007 9:59 PM EDT
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actually
Based on their full-season numbers, the team is unimpressive. Looking more closely at the in-season development of individual players, it starts to get interesting.
I don't even see the two descriptions as contradictory. I didn't originally say they were boring, just unimpressive. And I didn't later say they were impressive, just fast-improving.
by Jay on
Oct 9, 2007 10:26 PM EDT
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Some other news today
Rockies, Dbacks see similarities (AP)
Dbacks, Rockies no strangers (Republic)
'Faceless' Dbacks glitter in spotlight (Republic)
Melvin has faith in rookies (MLB.com)
NLCS schedule, times TBD but Piecoro reports the time of Game 1 is 5/5:30 and Game 2 is 1pm (WTF?)
by snakecharmer on Oct 8, 2007 4:26 PM EDT 0 recs
The vaunted AL
by TwinnerA on
Oct 8, 2007 5:06 PM EDT
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It's been announced as 7:18 instead!
In related news: daaaaaaamn NLCS tix are expensive... I don't know how I'm going to afford WS ::knock on wood:: tix if I want good seats.... apparently I don't get good seats. Hehe.
by snakecharmer on
Oct 9, 2007 1:16 AM EDT
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Tell me about it
by Jim McLennan on
Oct 9, 2007 1:31 AM EDT
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This just in
I'm still cheering for a Cleveland/Arizona world series and I hope the national media enjoys every second having to cover these two medium market teams with no brand names. It is, after all, what baseball deserves after all of this cable/satellite bullshit.
Here's to a Royals/Diamondbacks world series next year.
by nihil67 on Oct 8, 2007 5:37 PM EDT 0 recs
Luck v. Intelligent Design?
It depends what question you're asking, what you're assessing; what level of measurable, reproducible "good" you're talking about. Jim, you often say the only thing that matters is the final W/L. And, at the most basic, important, recognizable, "fan" level, you're absolutely right. The team with the most wins, by definition, is "the best."
But, the issue of whether this W/L record results primarily from intelligent design or happenstance is a different question, one with a less self-evident answer.
On the one hand, this team exhibits many qualities that may enable it to "beat" Pythagoras somewhat. They cant create alot of runs, but they can steal a base and manufacture the one run that wins a game. And they shut off oppenents' running game well. Obviously the pen is great, which provides pythagorean leverage. Maybe Josh stockpiling innings eating starters has something to do with it - I'm open to all that. But the problem at the end of the day is this: Even if one gives Josh and Bob Melvin all the credit in the world for the above construction and resource utilization, no GM that I know of goes into preseason saying, "Our plan is to get outscored by our opponents yet by shoring up the bullpen, improving the running game, etc, we'll manage our negative differential so well that we'll make a run at the pennant, have the league's best record, etc.
Nobody does that. As far as I know, nobody does that because it doesnt make any sense. It may "happen", but as a "plan", it doesnt work.
There's a great deal of historical evidence that luck has played some role here, and reasserting this year's W/L record doesnt disprove that, so much as change the "question" - back to the one with the self evident answer.
P.S. Enjoy the playoffs :-)
by Diamondhacks on Oct 8, 2007 5:59 PM EDT 0 recs
Hilarious
by nihil67 on
Oct 8, 2007 6:15 PM EDT
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Item 1 etc.
Also keep in mind that sabertmetric stats are "designed" largely to be predictive and not descriptive. The pythagorean win/loss stat is based off of years of evidence, and it does not purport to accurately reflect the records of every team in recorded baseball history - it's a correlation. So there's a heavy correlation between outscoring your opponent in toto for the season and having a good win loss record, but there's no claim that the opposite is impossible. In fact, it clearly is possible, and even sabermetricians would point to the DBacks as evidence of that very fact. I would say that the only thing that season end totals would indicate is this: if you only score 80 runs in a season, it is impossible to finish with 90 wins :)
That said, the DBacks did win 90 while being outscored, which apparently is something that occurs 5% of the time. And the DBacks fulfilled that 5%. Sweet. As a commentor mentioned, this is certainly possible if not desirable - I don't think anyone would go into the season planning to operate that way.
Probably the thing that has everyone so irked is the use of the word "lucky." On the one hand, I would say get over it - there's a lot of luck in baseball, and everyone knows it. But a more apt expression here is probably "good timing." Now, how much of the DBack's good timing is due to good fortune of lumped together hits and such versus how much is due to good managing and key performances is debatable. Regardless, you're only getting "no respect" from people who don't know any better - the sabermetric stats seek out trends and tendencies, not absolutes, and just because the DBacks record and performance has come up in the unlikely column does not devalue it - if anything it betters it, they are coming through DESPITE overwhelming odds to the contrary.
SO, in short, screw the negative vibes and bad application of statistics, but don't fall victim to delusional meta-narratives about the "awesome chemistry" of the Diamondbacks - they have been the benefactors of some incredibly well-timed play regardless of its sources in luck or some ability to step up when it matters, and it's okay to root for an "overachieving team" while still maintaining a level-headed stance that hey, Chris Young's .295 OBP probably could use some improvement.
by nyetjones on Oct 8, 2007 6:52 PM EDT 0 recs
Whining
I think we're more irked by the fact that while we did win 90 games, we're looked at as a team that's at the same ability of the Pirates and Giants. A win is a win and I'm not sure I care too much about how you get there, when it's said and done. Maybe we're all kinda mad that the Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers are the best teams every year? Not gonna happen, especially in the NL.
The fact is that we weren't the only team to defeat Pythagoras this year. The Mariners had nearly the same run differential and finished with a nearly similar 88-74 record. They didn't make the playoffs because they play in a league and division that's more top-heavy.
The Rockies outscored opponents by 102 runs, yet finished a half game back in their division.
10 teams finished better then the pythag record. 16 finished under. (Red Sox -7, Yankees -5)
Instead of all of the sabermetricians, mathematicians, or "experts" hining about how terrible the Diamondbacks are, why not go and make yourselves useful and figure out why the league was so off this year.
Maybe because Pythagoras doesn't work when the league has parity?
by nihil67 on
Oct 8, 2007 7:29 PM EDT
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Whining?
Perhaps a course in bell curves and normal distributions is in order. My comment is not whining, and in fact is saying that people should stop whining altogether; statistics apply to norms and large data sets, not individual applications. Use of the phrase "defeating pythagoras" demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of what that stat attempts to divulge. If you flip a coin heads twice in a row, did you "defeat probability?"
To make it clear - props to the DBacks! They're having a great season. Their stats are fairly mediocre. It's cool, and it's a relative outlier, but it does not disprove anything sabermetricians are saying. besides, if the predictive stats were perfect, this would make for some fairly boring television.
by nyetjones on
Oct 8, 2007 7:46 PM EDT
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Ok, maybe /you/ weren't whining
"Okay, your leadoff hitter is still 20 points below league average, and he was even worse in the first half of the season! .314 is terrible! Why are you pointing that out?!??!?!!"
Because I knew it'd piss you off. I don't want him to be our lead-off hitter, if it makes you feel better. We won a lot of games with him up there though, didn't we? That's got to hurt right in the math.
"If you flip a coin heads twice in a row, did you 'defeat probability?'"
Uhm, Yes. Haven't you ever heard the term "beating the odds." This is what they're talking about. I'm secure, if probability beats me, I'll admit it. Probability has a pretty weak pitching staff though, I think I could take him in a short series.
by nihil67 on
Oct 8, 2007 7:54 PM EDT
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'If you flip a coin heads twice in a row, did you
Well, since probability says there should have been 2 tails in there, and heads is the desired outcome, then yes, you've defeated probability.
by DbacksSkins on
Oct 8, 2007 8:01 PM EDT
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Errr.... you'd expect 1 tail
by DbacksSkins on
Oct 8, 2007 9:44 PM EDT
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To Errrrrrr is human.
The point is that the stats are used to describe the entire wealth of experience, so a singular instance should not evoke such violent considerations. We're just seeing the once in a while - if there's a roughly 5% chance that this is going to happen, that means 1/20 times - true, it's rarer than other outcomes, but it's still an outcome that's going to happen occasionally.
by nyetjones on
Oct 8, 2007 10:28 PM EDT
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Outlier
And when you have the youngest lineup in the majors, you expect enormous game-to-game variations. A team like Arizona, which combines talent and youth to such an unusual degree, is precisely the kind of team that's most likely to give BP a case of the screaming heebie-jeebies fall well outside the usual statistical norms.
by peachy rex on
Oct 8, 2007 9:22 PM EDT
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Pythagorean Winning Percentage
So I guess my question is for you, sir, is what is the mathematical proof for the theorem?
by soco on
Oct 8, 2007 8:02 PM EDT
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That's the problem.
It's a question of mistaking the symptoms for the disease.
by DbacksSkins on
Oct 8, 2007 8:59 PM EDT
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Statistical stuff
As you wisely point out, some lose track of the fact that there is a correlation between run differential and results, not a direct causation. The problem is some people now choose to regard run differential as more important than the actual number of wins, as a measure of a team's quality. Maybe someday they'll use run differential to decide playoff spots. But until then, the Pythagorean Standings are a second-order statistic, providing a mediocre estimate of a figure - wins and losses - which we already know exactly.
Certainly, I dislike the usage of the word "luck", simply because it's basically being used by most people as the antonym of the word "skill". I'm not strictly sure how much genuine "luck" - in the sense of random chance - plays a part in baseball. To me, poker is a game where luck plays an obvious part, but in baseball, it's less clear. I guess I'm with Thomas Jefferson: "I'm a great believer in luck and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it." [A version thereof is also attributed to Sam Goldwyn and Gary Player, but there's no evidence either of them could hit a curveball] But what I really object to is that run differential is a blunt object, which assumes every run is equal in value as a predictive tool. That's so ludicrously wrong, I'm not even going to go there: I will just remind you that Arizona used Jeff Cirillo and Augie Ojeda as pitchers this year.
Could the Diamondbacks improve? No doubt. Though you could frame the question the reverse way: why aren't the other teams performing better? But with Melvin having delivered two of the all-time biggest Pythagoras-busting seasons in his three years as manager, I wouldn't bet against our 2008 record being another 'over-achievement'. And that should put the fear of God into the rest of the National League - if we can win 90 games while being outscored, what the hell are we going to do when we start outscoring people?
by Jim McLennan on
Oct 8, 2007 10:28 PM EDT
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I don't think
I think part of the problem here is that people misunderstand probability theory. If a predictive tool (say, run differential) says you shoud have a certain outcome (79 wins) 45% of the time and another one (90 wins) 7 % of the time, that does not mean that the times you get 90 wins they are somehow not legitimat. If the meteorologist looks at the radar and says that there is a 7% chance of rain tomorrow, and when you wake up it's raining, you'll still take your umbrella outside with you.
Run differntial is not causal -- it does not say the number of games a team SHOULD win in a perfectly fair world, but the number of games that one should EXPECT a team to win a certain percentage of times. There is a lot of chaos in baseball, there are a lot of situational matchups, and I think that the low level war between people who talk about stats and people who talk about heart and clutch improperly drives us to extremes.
by andrewinnewyork on
Oct 8, 2007 11:03 PM EDT
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Luck in baseball
The "luck" that sabermetricians speak of is not luck as in anti-skill, it's luck as in the fortunate clustering of the few hits and walks that you are getting. Again, no one's saying the DBacks are closing there eyes and getting blind-ass lucky; they are saying that the clumping of their hits and walks into the runs they are getting and at the appropriate times are more than you would expect given their numbers. And there have been a ton of saber-studies to show that claims at "clutchness" and the like are off base; it's easy enough to say that a guy WAS clutch in a previous year, but it is exceedingly difficult to predict who will be clutch in the following year - much harder than it would be to, say, predict that Augie Ojeda will not hit 50 HRs next year. That is also, incidentally, the same claim that is made by the pythag theorem, that given average clumpiness of runs scored and runs allowed, you would expect a given record.
So maybe a better claim is this - the DBacks are clumpy. And you can argue like crazy whether this is due to some skill of clumping that Melvin or the players bring (which is clearly part of the answer, given his penchant for properly using his bullpen and/or infielders in blowouts) or whether it's just the way the chips fell. One problem is that the ability of a team to play consistently clumpily - in other words, clumpiness as a repeatable skill - has not been shown to be a probably supposition in baseball's history. There is a similar argument with bullpen strength and 1 run games - people tend to attribute a good 1 run game record to a great bullpen, but again, this is something that does not have a strong year to year correlation across the leagues in past seasons. The general feeling is that if you are a good team and consistently drumming your opponents, you won't be involved in as many one-run games. (In contrast, things like average, OBP, SLG, and such do have predictive correlations, so the assumption is that something controllable/skillful is happening there).
Regardless, I think it's the semantic use of clumpy = lazy that's irking the fans here. So I would suggest the more objective, less value-laden use of "clumpy" over lucky, and we can let the DBacks have their mystique over why they have been able to perform this way.
As for the probabilities, the problem is declaring things after their occurrence. See if this makes sense - what is the probability that the diamondbacks would have won and lost their games in the precise order that they did? (E.g. WWLWWWLWWLLLLWLWLWLWWWWW, etc.). The chances of that are probably one in a gerbillion, but I can't very well then say that "wow, the chances that the diamondbacks would have won their games in that exact order and then beaten the Cubs in three games are one in gerbillion times 7%. They're really beating the odds; something's happening here."
I'm not arguing that before the season it was improbable, I'm just saying that it's misleading to multiply together probabilities in a predictive fashion after one of the events has already occurred. You have to look for the collective set of outcomes that would have satisfied you in this after-the-fact state, which should really include all instances where the DBacks make the playoffs and then win the first round, since that is what we really care about anyways. And I can't calculate that, but it's invariably higher than 1/289.
by nyetjones on
Oct 8, 2007 11:05 PM EDT
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Good stuff
[ there have been a ton of saber-studies to show that claims at "clutchness" and the like are off base ]
I dunno, last I read from Bill James was that clutchness might exist, but was largely undetectable, because its effect got lost in the noise of random variation. It's easy for a batting average, say, to vary by 50 points from season to season, and that can conceal a lot of things. Again, however, we're back to the sabermetricians' tendency to claim "luck" for any result that doesn't fit in with their expectations. That offends my scientific leanings, because it seems the easy way out: luck is the "Magic Bullet" of baseball stats.
[ So maybe a better claim is this - the DBacks are clumpy. ]
You would expect that to show up somewhere in the stats too, but the D-backs were dead-last in the National League for BA, OBP and OPS with runners in scoring position. 2 outs, RISP, we were 9th. Late and close, 5th; within 1 run, 10th. Even BABIP, the quintessential "luck" statistic, had us 15th. [I note, 41 points below the league-leading Rockies: either they were extremely lucky, or there's something to that religion thing. :-)] Any clumpiness seems strangely limited. About the only point I can find is that we were 2nd in pinch-hit OPS - and again, that's like bullpen use, an area where the manager can use the "right" player in a high-leverage situation.
[ As for the probabilities, the problem is declaring things after their occurrence. ]
We can't very well look at the projections before the season, because there aren't any. If the hypothesis is, that the D-backs are a 79-win team, how do you prove that on Opening Day? In addition, since everyone's run differential is zero at the start of the season, Pythagoras isn't exactly of much use. But Arizona outperformed Pythagoras every month during the season, until September: and the topic was brought up very early on, so we're not engaging in post-facto hypothesizing here. How often or for how long does the same team have to outperform before you should look at the engine?
by Jim McLennan on
Oct 9, 2007 11:26 AM EDT
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Luck
by peachy rex on
Oct 9, 2007 12:28 PM EDT
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Right on
Everything I've read about "being clutch" is that it is a non-reproducible skill, that there's little correlation from year to year for player's ability to hit int he clutch (outside of the fact that, say, Albret Pujols hits better in the clutch than Chris Young, but that's just because he hits better generally, not because he rises to the occasion). The noise certainly obscures it if you study the stats of an individual player, largely due to natural flux and the lack of samples, but when you look at all players, there is no tendency for one who is clutch in year A to be clutch the following year. When BJ et al talk about hidden clutch, I gather that they mean that if there is clutch, it is not an attribute like most other things we use to describe baseball players - most players can take the label "is a home run hitter" or "is not a homerun hitter" since that stat tends to follow correlated trends, but since clutch does not across the board, you cannot equally apply clutch/not-clutch labels to players. So maybe a privileged few perform clutchedly and an unprivileged few perform unclutchedly , but since it does not differ from the expected distribution that you would get from outright randomness, you can't attribute that to anything about the players themselves.
Where you are spot on is that "luck" is a laden term that gets thrown around by the sabermetric folks. Unfortunately, what is going on is subtle - it's that the outcomes are matching predictions that would be entirely based on luck and are not differing significantly from them, so they can't attribute it to something beyond the random distribution. That is just how stats work, for better or for worse - if you can't see a difference between your outcomes and predicted random distributions, you are unable to reject the null hyp and claim that anything is going on. SO calling it luck is equally fallacious because you don't know that it's luck, you just know that it's certainly not the same kind of demonstrable skill as e.g. homerun hitting. What they should say is "we can't pinpoint what's causing this because it looks the same as a random normal distribution" and just leave it at that.
There's a whole 'nother argument that sabermetrics itself is fundamentally flawed because it assumes static abilities of players on a day to day basis and static applications of strategy over the course of years, but that's neither here nor there. But you do see it somewhat in the DBacks case - someone above was commenting on what the "proof" for the pythag theorerm is, and again, it's a statistic that describes the distribution, not one that pretends to be able to pinpoint exactly what happens in a season. The proof for why it serves as a reasonable approximation is the commonsensical thought that runs scored / runs against stat determines a win in an individual game, so extrapolate it to the regular season and mess around with exponents until you get something that reasonably models the win-loss records of teams via your formula. It's not perfect - and BJ himself admits that it falls apart at the extremes - and it's especially going to not be perfect if you intentionally thwart it. And I would argue that Bob Melvin did thwart it on occasion, by throwing Augie et al out there in blowouts and using his worse relievers when he was far behind as well. Essentially, if you don't follow "average manager tendencies," it's not surprising that your RS-RA does not follow the average prediction. Still, the question is whether the manager and players account for all of that exception to the model, and this is outside the grasp of the stats - but it certainly seems that the DBacks did a good job of scoring runs and preventing runs in a fashion that led to more wins than expected. Again, probably partially due to good managing/playing, but also probably due to some happenstance timing.
Which is not a bad thing! As I hopefully convinced you above, luck happens in baseball. Going 90-72 instead of 81-81 is a swing of 9 games. So if you want to say that 5 of those games were due to sweet managing and 4 were due to timeliness, then fine. But it boils down to trying to make objective assessments, and betting on the team that gets outscored on the season, given the available data, seems unwise. Does that mean the Dbacks won't win or that you shouldn't root for them? Hell no! But the "no respect" line is tired - people are trying to make accurate predictions based on data, and the data are what they are. It's dumb for them to get uppity and attribute your success to luck, but it's equally dumb to feel offended that people are saying your team doesn't look good on paper. They don't! So what? Appealing to intangibles as a predictor of your playoff success is illogical - if there intangible, then you can't see them to use as predictors.
Really all of this boils down to an inescapable human desire to apply logical narratives to things that are not beholden to follow them. It's best to just enjoy the series drama than to get all cranky over who's disrespecting whom. Besides, aren't we supposed to enjoy rooting for underdogs? Won't that "I told you so" moment feel that much sweeter when you prove them wrong? You know, if you do?
by nyetjones on
Oct 9, 2007 1:15 PM EDT
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Nail on head
There's something wrong with a "predictor" that doesn't have all of its data until the season is over. What are you predicting at that point?
by nihil67 on
Oct 9, 2007 9:56 AM EDT
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Shockingly complimentary
by peachy rex on Oct 8, 2007 7:30 PM EDT 0 recs
The link:
Dayn Perry gets credit for being somewhat less of an idiot for writing this article. Here's a good quote encompassing the gist of the piece:
"Normally, when you've got a roster so young, you're endeavoring to stay out of last place and hoping things get better in the coming seasons. Suffice it to say, this isn't how things are done in Phoenix and Denver. The D-backs and Rockies have exceptional young talent, and they're going to be serious contenders for the foreseeable future."
Read it.
by DbacksSkins on
Oct 8, 2007 7:49 PM EDT
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Almost
I could read a media guide too.
Media whore.
by nihil67 on
Oct 8, 2007 7:56 PM EDT
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Here's your answer
4 days?
I looked through the entire schedule and here's what we scored in games that we lost by 5 or more:
-7, scored 4
-5, scored 6
-5, scored 5
-6, scored 3
-6, scored 4
-6, scored 5
-6, scored 1
-7, scored 3
-6, scored 1
-8, scored 2
-6, scored 1
-7, scored 1
-13, scored 0
-8, scored 3
-7, scored 1
-9, scored 1
-14, scored 0
-11, scored 0
-5, scored 3
-9, scored 5
-9, scored 0
-8, scored 2
-6, scored 1
-10, scored 1
24 of our 72 losses were by 5 runs or more. Our run differential was -184 runs in these 24 games. Everyone should be more amazed that we made it back to only being down by 30.
by nihil67 on Oct 8, 2007 7:44 PM EDT 0 recs
It also turns out
by nyetjones on
Oct 8, 2007 10:22 PM EDT
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Did you take your math to the Prom?
Throw out the stats, look at this fact. The Diamondbacks play in the best division in baseball. From A(rizona) to Z(ito) the NL West is stacked with great pitching and tough hitting ballparks. The Cubs and Phillies were lucky that Bud Selig allowed them to participate in the playoffs. The Padres could have swept either team and the Dodgers probably would have taken them in five. The top pitchers in the National League when you look at ERA and Wins was Webb, Peavy, Penny, Zambrano, and Francis.
The top two teams in the National League are playing each other in the NLCS, how often does that really happen?
by Charlie77 on Oct 8, 2007 10:52 PM EDT 0 recs
Been a while...
Welcome, Charlie. The last time the two teams with the best records in the NL faced each other in the NLCS seems to have been 1995, in a shortened season, when the Braves (90 wins) faced the Reds (85). The next-best team had only 78 wins. Of course, "most wins" doesn't necessarily mean "best", as we all know, but in this case, it's hard to argue the D-backs and Rockies are not truly the best - much though the Disciples of Differential would have you believe Atlanta should be here, rather than Arizona!
by Jim McLennan on
Oct 9, 2007 11:31 AM EDT
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A wild, crazy thought
by peachy rex on Oct 9, 2007 1:37 AM EDT 0 recs
Not just a lack of respect
Just check out the poll on the SI MLB front page which asks who do you WANT to see in the playoffs and a whopping 74% say they want some form of a Rockies WS.
I'm not sure why the Rockies are more beloved than the D'Backs, but I'd venture to guess Todd Helton is a big reason.
by johngordonma on Oct 9, 2007 6:46 AM EDT 0 recs
We're going to be the dogs
by peachy rex on
Oct 9, 2007 7:41 AM EDT
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Think of all the fans that hate us
by nihil67 on
Oct 9, 2007 9:53 AM EDT
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Basically
by Jim McLennan on
Oct 9, 2007 11:06 AM EDT
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The one fan base that doesn't hate us
by andrewinnewyork on
Oct 9, 2007 11:47 AM EDT
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Also
by andrewinnewyork on
Oct 9, 2007 11:48 AM EDT
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Casey Fossum......Errm.,..
/que off Homer voice
/que on Twilight Zone music
by nargel on
Oct 9, 2007 10:39 PM EDT
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Speaking of no respect...
by Azreous on Oct 9, 2007 12:09 PM EDT 0 recs


