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Dbacks Daily 10/11/07 Here we go again...

Snakecharmer's busy today, so I'm running the Dbacks Daily.

Ah, the NLCS. How we've missed you; it's been 6 years! You might be the red-headed stepchild in TBS' book, but you're #1 in our book. Two young teams with a lot of good years and rivalry games ahead of them face off. Dbacks fans, take heart: the Diamondbacks have never lost in the CS. Dbacks fans, take heed: neither, technically, have the Rockies.

While we're all counting the minutes until 5:37 or whatever stupid time the game's starting, there are plenty of stories today about the upcoming action on the field.

Let's start off with the selection found over at SI. Their playoff special front page features a shot of Mark Reynolds taking BP with the roof open. Jon Heyman, one of the few sportswriters to correctly predict the Dbacks-Rockies NLCS, has a piece comparing the four CS teams and looking at their similarities; he sums it up as parity, pitching, and youth. Gennaro Filice talks about the five NLCS storylines;  including youth, Webb, Taveras, BoMel, and Rox D. It's also got some good links at the bottom that I will not reproduce here. Richard Deitsch's Media Circus evaluates the TBS broadcasters and saves his kindest words for a familiar face to Dbacks fans. Jack McCallum has a nice feature specifically on the Rockies, for those of you who are interested in that. Going back a few days, Jacob Luft discusses five things we learned from the DS. His point about the Dbacks focuses on their precocious nature and obscene improvement over the season. Finally, one of the godfathers of SI baseball writing, John Donovan breaks down the matchup position-by-position and likes the Rockies in 6. (That seems to be the consensus, actually. Rox in 6.) He also writes about the improbable rise to the CS for each of these teams.

Moving right along, let's take a look at Fox Sports' offerings. Randy Hill writes a somewhat obnoxious and smug article on "Why the Red Sox might not win the World Series", looking at real and imagined advantages of the other 3 teams. As has already been posted elsewhere, Dayn Perry somewhat redeems himself and extols the virtues of both NLCS teams. Ken Rosenthal breaks down the CS, and actually likes the Dbacks in 6. Nice to know somebody believes in us.

ESPN has Tim Kurkjian taking Dbacks in 7, which is, again, another article that's been posted elsewhere on the 'Pit. A few sources have already picked up on the fact that Josh Byrnes has worked for the FOs of four teams in his career (Cleveland, Colorado, Boston, and Arizona). But Jerry Crasnick also has a nice piece on how former Cleveland exec John Hart mentored the GMs of the Indians, Rox, and Dbacks. Jayson Stark, one of their few good writers, talks about the insanity of the NLCS. There's actually some good stuff in there as well, and Stark's one of those sportswriters who's not afraid to admit when he's wrong. ESPN's also got their Diamond Daily, summing up the NLCS. For some sports nerdism, check out Imagine Sports' NLCS simulation, which has Jeff Francis winning tonight and the Rockies advancing to the WS. (Their NLDS simulations also had the Rockies and Cubs advancing, incidentally, further proving that mathematicians everywhere HATE the Diamondbacks) Oh, and while you're over at ESPN.com, take a look at their 'expert picks'. In case you still haven't taken the NLCS poll, go ahead and do that now.

On to Sporting News. David Pinto takes the Rockies, based on hitting. Bob Hille talks about just how hot the Rockies really are.  Ryan Fagan writes the official positional breakdown, and chooses the Rockies in 6. Sean Deveney writes a somewhat vanilla piece on wtf the Dbacks are doing in the NLCS.

The official mouthpiece: we've got articles here on Webb preparing to face the Rox, Upton as the future, and the brothers Drew wanting to meet in the World Series. Hmmm... Brothers Drew? Do they tell fairy tales as well? All articles are complete with poor writing, as always.

On to the local media. You're going to have to go through Tucson papers first, just because I said so. Sarah Trotto interviewed Webby and talks about his need to be on his game. Bruce Pascoe writes about the Tucson connections, specifically, the links to the NLCS and spring training, and last year's Sidewinders. There's also an article about Micah's offday tuneup. Finally, Bruce Pascoe writes about the Dbacks' and Rockies' blueprint for success.

The East Valley Tribune includes Jack Magruder writing about the Dbacks copying the Rockies in building the franchise, the players calling BoMel MOTY, Micah pitching game 4 rather than game 3. Also included are articles on how well the Dbacks and Rox know each other, Micah's tuneup, and a good column on the long paths Todd Helton and Jeff Cirillo took to get here.

Moving on to the Republic, we have stories about the Dbacks being underdogs... again, Matt Holliday's choice of sports, the Rockies being fired up, (shocking!!) Colorado's defensive prowess, Stephen Drew's confidence, and the Dbacks' players' confidence that the fans will show up. In the blogs, we have Doug Haller writing about another Doug of the Slaten variety, as well as Micah itching to get into the action. Nick Piecoro's blog, however, hasn't been modified since Tuesday's entry on NLCS start times.

A few AP articles from various sources cover BoMel keeping the same rotation, TBS hoping for continued good ratings, MLB's chosen CS crew chiefs, (let's just say I am NOT happy about the NLCS having Tim McClellan and Angel Hernandez in our umpiring crew) a ticket scalper in Denver getting arrested, and then there's the official AP preview.

See you all around 5:78 or whatever obnoxious time they have the Dbacks-Rocks first pitch! GO DBACKS!!

0 recs  |  Comment 31 comments

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Tickets
I've heard a lot about how the games arent sold out. My plan was to buy tickets for Friday's game (people who can afford tickets have jobs). I've been checking online all week, and the best that has been coming up is Section 305-324 up at the very top. I've also called a number of times and the people (as expected) swore up and down that was all that was available.

Well, about 12:15pm today, I checked online again and found 2 tickets... Section 132 Row 5!!!!! Of course I bought them without hesitation. This is the same bull the ticket people pull all year. Now, I hear MLB is controlling ticket sales, but maybe this is why its not sold out. If I REALLY believed that only nose bleeds were available, I would have bought them. Buying tickets is a pain. You cant really pick your spot online, and the ticket people lie (even during reg season when its a ghost town). Its not gonna stop me from going, but come on.

SO..... IS IT FRIDAY YET?!!?!!!?!  I cant wait

by Adam1 on Oct 11, 2007 4:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm....
can you cancel a ticket sale? Because that might explain it.
Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Oct 11, 2007 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That was my only thought but....
When you go to buy them it says

'There are NO refunds or exchanges on any postseason tickets. In the event a game is not played, DO NOT return the ticket. Tickets for unplayed postseason games purchased online will be credited automatically.'

by Adam1 on Oct 11, 2007 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Perhaps
I know that when you select tickets online for a lot of events, it reserves them for X amount of time whilst you initiate payment, maybe that had something to do with it in the fact someone was looking at them, but decided against it after all.

by Englishdback on Oct 11, 2007 5:27 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Simulation
Interesting that the Diamond Mind simulation has the Rockies winning 51.9% of game ones.  My Simulator has the Diamondbacks with a 52.08% win probability in game one, and the LV Hilton Sports Book has the Diamondbacks with a 55.56% win probability in game one.  Seems like the Diamond Mind simulation is a bit off??   vr, Xei
Life is so very very precious, so make sure you root for the Dodgers.

by Xeifrank on Oct 11, 2007 5:37 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Also
Francis has this odd ability to beat other teams' aces, but pitch lousily against other teams' scrubs. Perhaps they have him winning because he's against Webb? (Even though Webb beat him last time out)
Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Oct 11, 2007 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There is no
way to fairly simulate something like that.  It wouldn't be a simulation at that point.
vr, Xei
Life is so very very precious, so make sure you root for the Dodgers.

by Xeifrank on Oct 11, 2007 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Of course it would.
If you use Jeff Francis' average ERA against other teams' top starters, for example, you can use that as a variable.
Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Oct 11, 2007 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

uh
You can't just adjust one players stats based on certain situations like facing the other teams best starter.  First off, it's a small sample size.  Secondly, then why not adjust for other factors and do so for every player, not just picking out one player.  Why not night games, vs left handed pitchers with mustaches??  It can be simulated, but it would be the wrong way to enter data into the simulation.
vr, Xei
Life is so very very precious, so make sure you root for the Dodgers.

by Xeifrank on Oct 11, 2007 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm
If you aren't going to take into account all of the situations, why simulate at all?  I would think that no stat, no matter how seemingly minor, could possibly effect the outcome and should therefore be accounted for.

Curious, how'd your simulations for the season hold up vs. real results?

by nihil67 on Oct 11, 2007 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

sim
I compared my simulation versus the LV Hilton Sports Book.  Just picking the winner/loser of each game didn't turn out to be the best way to measure it's success.  You needed another entity that was picking winners/losers with probabilities to make a good comparison.  The LV Hilton beat my simulation by 1.12% for the NL West games that I simulated the last two months of the season.  The margin of error for my simulation (running 2000 games per sim) is around 1%.  I was happy with these results for my first year of simulation comparisons.  I have been told by some very smart people that beating Vegas with a simulator is a very difficult thing to do.  I think the simulator is very solid, I just need to be careful with my data set that the simulator uses.  Sometimes when a hitter or pitcher has a small sample size, it's difficult to know what data set to use, or to not sim the game at all.  And at what point is it better to use something like ZIPS/Pecota/Chone/Marcel as opposed to in season player statistics.  It's something I hope to improve upon next season and get that 1.12% down to something much smaller.

vr, Xei

Life is so very very precious, so make sure you root for the Dodgers.

by Xeifrank on Oct 11, 2007 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Heh
Yeah, that's completely not what I asked.  How'd you do vs. real life?
Pow! Right in the math!

by nihil67 on Oct 11, 2007 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

vs real life
what do you mean by vs real life? - heh!

vr, Xei

Life is so very very precious, so make sure you root for the Dodgers.

by Xeifrank on Oct 11, 2007 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

/sigh
How many times did your simulator pick the correct winner vs. how many times did it not.  Also, if you did any sort of pre-season predictions, how did those do vs. the real season?
Pow! Right in the math!

by nihil67 on Oct 11, 2007 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

well
picking winners/losers straight up is a poor way to determine how well the simulator did.  I could easily have cherry picked the lopsided games and picked mostly winners (and looked good) or picked all the even games and had a record near 50% (and looked bad).  That isn't a very good way to measure.  The best way to measure is to use the simulator to get a "win expectancy".  For example if my simulator has the DBacks with a win expectancy of 52% and Vegas has the DBacks with a win expectancy of 55% and the DBacks win the game... who did better?  We both picked the DBacks to win, so according to your method we'd be even.  But in reality Vegas did better by giving the DBacks a higher win expectancy.  I summated the win expectancy of all the games I simulated and compared that to the summation of the win expectancy of the same games using Vegas odds and thus the 1.12% comparison.  It's like picking football games.  Picking the winner isn't the hard part, picking which team will cover the spread is.  Capiche?  I can't really put this in more simpler mathematical terms for you.
vr, Xei
Life is so very very precious, so make sure you root for the Dodgers.

by Xeifrank on Oct 11, 2007 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can't take it anymore
Sorry, I can only translate these responses as, "My simulator sucks, but it sucks just about as much as Vegas'."

If it can't actually tell me who's going to win, why should I care?  I'm not a degenerate gambler, so I could really give two shits about who covers a "spread".

Here's an example:  I picked the Diamondbacks to win 162 times this year.  I was right 90 of those times.  Believe it or not, I didn't even have to write any code for that.

Pow! Right in the math!

by nihil67 on Oct 11, 2007 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not only that,
but you were right 55.6% of the time. That's better than both simulations.
Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Oct 11, 2007 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Math for Dummies
Actually, what you would need to do is pick a winner and give a probability that it will occur.

For example you pick the DBacks to win tonight with a 100% probability, and then after they lose you get 0 points, I get 47.95 and Vegas gets 44.44.  That puts you in dead last.  But that's no surprise.

vr, Xei

Life is so very very precious, so make sure you root for the Dodgers.

by Xeifrank on Oct 11, 2007 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And yet....
Like I said, if he predicts 162 wins and they win 90, by your formula he still earns a 55.6%, which is higher than both your sim and LV Hilton's I believe.
Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Oct 12, 2007 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

apples and oranges
but you are talking apples and oranges.  You are measuring two different events.  One is measuring a win/loss binary event 162 times.  The other is looking at the win probability of one particuliar game.  You have to make similiar measurements.  I could go into further details, but if you don't understand it by now, it's just not worth the time.

vr, Xei

Life is so very very precious, so make sure you root for the Dodgers.

by Xeifrank on Oct 12, 2007 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, I'm quite aware that it's a different concept
I quite understand, thank you very much. Yet, my point is, Ben is actually right. If you call every game a 100% chance for the Dbacks to win, you still beat the system; this season, anyway.

And thank YOU very much for the pretentious attitude.

Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Oct 12, 2007 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

it's not pretentious
and it's an incorrect way of measuring.  Perhaps you didn't read the whole thread or something wasn't explained clearly.  The 55.56% was just the win probability for Game #1 (LV) and the 52.08% was for my simulator.  It was not the percentage of how many games over a 162 game season that it correctly picked the winner straight up.  The whole point of the simulator is to predict a win expectancy for each game, not to predict a winner/loser.  Therefore, the method you and nihl are referring to is not the correct method of measuring success.  There is a track record of every game I have simulated with comparison to LV Sports Book and the actual game result.

vr, Xei

Life is so very very precious, so make sure you root for the Dodgers.

by Xeifrank on Oct 12, 2007 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're generally judged by a body of work
rather than correctly predicting a certain game. By predicting 162 wins, you would have beaten Vegas this year, according to your own #s.
Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Oct 12, 2007 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

pre-season prediction
was Red Sox over Cubs in W.S.  That was using ZIPS Projections for each player before the season started.  It had the DBacks coming in 2nd place in the NL West.  Rockies in the cellar.

vr, Xei

Life is so very very precious, so make sure you root for the Dodgers.

by Xeifrank on Oct 11, 2007 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I simulated
the game last night on 2k7. Final score: 37-0. Brandon Webb pitched a perfect game.

by Adam1 on Oct 11, 2007 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm....
Sounds like a remarkably accurate simulator. Well done.
Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Oct 11, 2007 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Finally
Finally a system that has some proof behind it.

I expect absolutely no less tonight :)

Pow! Right in the math!

by nihil67 on Oct 11, 2007 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe it IS coincidence...
...and thus, too small a sample size. However, since Jeff Francis this season beat Jason Schmidt, Barry Zito, Josh Beckett, Andy Pettitte, John Smoltz, Matt Cain, (not an ace, but a good pitcher nonetheless) Greg Maddux, and Cole Hamels, (in the postseason, which doesn't really count) I'd say the kid steps up.

And I must respectfully disagree with your contention about fine-tuning different players' stats. Would you include Webb's record against the Rockies? Or Mark Reynolds' OPS against them? Or Stephen Drew's hitting during the NLDS? It's a question of personal preference as to how specific you'd like to go, and if your simulation uses too blunt a set of tools to determine the outcome of a game, it's going to be less accurate.

Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Oct 11, 2007 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hudson
I didn't notice this one in my brief scan of your post, so I thought I'd put it up.  Yahoo has an article up on Orlando Hudson's role with the team since his injury, and his hope that he might be recovered enough to play in the World Series.
I'm not superstitious, but I'm a little stitious.

by kishi on Oct 11, 2007 7:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks Devin.
Yeah, I didn't check Yahoo sports. Well done.
Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Oct 11, 2007 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow....
I just realized that I linked to 48 stories.

Too many? It's my first time doing the Daily.

Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Oct 12, 2007 3:32 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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