D'backs grabbing their Johnson?

by Jim McLennan on Dec 29, 2006 9:49 AM EST in News Comment 21 comments

A quick catchup on the apparently-looming RJ deal, before I head off to the Phoenix Fear Film Festival, though I don't have time to do much more than a quick summary of the latest reports...

New York Daily News: "The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the most aggressive suitors for Randy Johnson and sources close to the negotiations said Thursday that the Yankees and Arizona could complete a trade to send Johnson back to the desert before next week. The Diamondbacks, who view Johnson as a gate attraction, want to talk to the Big Unit about a contract extension, a source said... The Yankees, meanwhile, have their eyes on a package of Arizona pitching prospects. The Diamondbacks are loaded with young talent and if the Yankees send Johnson home to Arizona - Johnson's home is in the Phoenix suburb of Paradise Valley - they'd like to get at least two of the following three pitchers: Dustin Nippert, Micah Owings and Ross Ohlendorf."

I'm sure they would like to get two of them. However, that doesn't mean they necessarily are going to get them, and I would reject a deal: give them one of the trio perhaps, along with a lower-level prospect. As I've mentioned before, we do not have to trade for Johnson: how good is a PO'd Big Unit going to be for New York? We've seen that already, earlier in his career, when he wanted out of Seattle...

East Valley Tribune: "If Randy Johnson returns to the Diamondbacks, it will be for at least two seasons, seemingly ample time for him to get his 300th career victory. Johnson has one year remaining on his contract with the New York Yankees at $16 million, but because of the way the D-Backs' payroll breaks, they would seek to add another year to make the deal work financially if a trade goes through. "Two years is a preference and a necessity," a high-ranking D-Backs official said Thursday while reporting no movement in trade discussions. The D-Backs have about $10 million to spend this season to hit their payroll projection of $60 million-$65 million. But their largest contract -- Livan Hernandez's $7 million -- is up after 2007, and the projected payroll in 2008 is between $65 million and $70 million, which would enable the D-Backs to afford a back-loaded Johnson deal."

It also goes on to talk about the $40m we still owe Johnson from his last stint, which would be restructured as part of the deal. Any pitcher at his age is going to be a game of Russian Roulette, but if we're signing him for two years, I can only presume that due diligence has been carried out, and we will not end up paying a lot of money for something which sits, surly and aggressive, at the far end of the bench until the end of 2008.

Okay, let the discussion and updates continue...

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What a disaster.

One of the biggest beefs always brought up when talking about our farm system is that we do not produce quality pitchers, at all, on any level.
Finally, we have a small group of talented pitchers coming up. True, they are unproven at the Major League level, but nonetheless, there is finally some home grown talent worth getting excited for.
Why is it we cannot see the potential of these youngsters when other teams can?
Why is this a good thing for us if we were to trade them away for a broken down, two year, expensive rental?
Hopefully, Josh can pull the FO's collective butt outta their rear ends as I cannot believe he could be the instrument of this type of disaster.

by unnamedDBacksfan on Dec 29, 2006 1:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

grammarical correction

last sentance should read, "Hopefully, Josh can pull the FO's collective head outta their rear ends....."

by unnamedDBacksfan on Dec 29, 2006 3:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No need to panic... :-)

[ Why is it we cannot see the potential of these youngsters when other teams can? ]

I understand your fear - especially given the famine of pitching prospects we've had coming up through the system. But on the FO's defense, they are clearly not looking at trading these youngsters lightly. The obvious question would be, what is their potential? One report I've read says the organization believes that Owings projects as no more than a middle reliever, who are not exactly in short supply. And he's probably the pick of the list. Certainly, the common wisdom is that none of them project as a #1/#2 starter, and the question remains, how many back of the rotation guys do we need? Isn't it better to trade some of them now before their ceiling becomes more obvious?

Pretty much all the peripheral stats say that Johnson will be much better next year. ZIPS projects an AL ERA of 3.71, which would probably be nearer 3.50 in the NL. That's ace pitcher numbers right there [on DBBP, McCray posted the following chart for average ERA by rotation position in the NL. #1: 3.51, #2: 4.04, #3: 4.57, #4: 5.11, #5: 6.26]. Byrnes is smart in going for someone who a) is likely to be undervalued and b) who is not a free agent.

However, the right price does still need to be paid, and that's going to be the trickier thing. If, for example it's something involving Vizcaino, who's a free agent after 2007, Ohlendorf (only our #7 prospect, per John Sickels) and a toss-in, I'd bite. And we hold the whip-hand here, for reasons explained elsewhere, so I'm confident the end result will be something like that, with the quality of the toss-in being determined by the amount of cash the Yankees are willing to pay.

by Jim McLennan on Dec 30, 2006 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Amen!

by johngordonma on Dec 29, 2006 2:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

this is bad

We must keep Nippert!! I see so much potential for him and Owings to but mainly Nippert. Who knows if Johnson feels comfortable in az then he might be an ok # 3 or 4 starter but still were better off keeping all are home grown talent but unfourtuantly the owners want to make some cash and they will do that with the acquisition of Johnson.

2001 W.S. champs, Go D-backs L.A.= Lost Again

by flyingdutchman on Dec 29, 2006 3:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

IF WE TRADE

Owings... OMG That would suck

"very cunning Mr. *VIII*" -- Jim

by Mr. Philosophical on Dec 29, 2006 10:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nice title btw.

by Otacon on Dec 30, 2006 5:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Step Back for D'Backs

One thing the Diamondbacks have prided themselves on is having good players who are also good people. I see them getting rid of Gonzo and Counsell and getting back Johnson, who is a humongous a**hole, as a step back especially if we lose prospects. The Diamondbacks will maybe improve attendance slightly, but he is washed up and couldn't dominate with the Yankee line-up. For shame Diamondbacks, for shame.

by Webb17 on Dec 30, 2006 9:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Johnson

Has dominated the NL for his seasons with the D-backs. I think he would do fine this season with us.

"very cunning Mr. *VIII*" -- Jim

by Mr. Philosophical on Dec 30, 2006 12:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good people?

[ One thing the Diamondbacks have prided themselves on is having good players who are also good people. ]

You mean like Jason Grimsley, Wally Backman and Mike DeFelice? :-) Johnson may be grumpy, anti-social and is certainly not as smooth with the press and public as certain former left-fielders. But I don't think he's a clubhouse cancer: we did win three division titles and a World Series in the six years he was here, without obvious public issues.

Washed-up? We'll see. The NY Post notes that, "his overall batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage against for the two seasons of .246/.300/.412 was similar to that of Barry Zito (.239/.319/.382), who just received the largest payday ever for a pitcher."...

by Jim McLennan on Dec 30, 2006 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rumblings...

MVN.com is says:

I am told this is done. Apparently the agreement was for two prospects (Nippert & Owings) but there were no further details on the money situation. The two teams have agreed but it is pending a contract extension. The D-Backs will have a 72 hour window to negotiate with Johnson. If that falls through [and I hope it doesn't] the entire trade will fall through.

Hmm. Nippert and Owings? My kneejerk reaction is that this is BS, but we'll see, I guess. It's later updated by the writer to three prospects including the two names, which seems seriously unlikely. But I'm just reporting it as the latest report out there.

by Jim McLennan on Dec 30, 2006 3:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

NOOOOOOOOOOOOO

WTF BYRNES WTF NOT OWINGS

"very cunning Mr. *VIII*" -- Jim

by Mr. Philosophical on Dec 30, 2006 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

What a horrible trade if that's true and the Yankees aren't paying us like 10 million in return.

by nihil67 on Dec 30, 2006 7:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Can't do it

If this is true, and I don't think it is, we are giving up to much. The mvn.com website also said there were rumors that CoJack is involved. I don't think that is possible unless they are sending us someone from thier starting lineup. I think it's all just rumors.

by DiamondbacksWIn on Dec 30, 2006 7:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Man...

If CoJack is involved, JB's taken a page right out of Joe Jr's book. Not good.

by nihil67 on Dec 30, 2006 7:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The latest from MVN...

There are a ton of rumors swirling now, none that I have been able to confirm.

1 - Conner Jackson will be coming to New York.

2 - The Yankees will pay $6 million of RJ's remaining contract.

3 - The Yankees will be sending a second player over to Arizona in this deal.

Again, I have been unable to confirm these rumors. I stand by what I listed above however. This deal is done.

I'd be more inclined to takes these rumors seriously, if the writer knew how to spell "Conor". :-)

by Jim McLennan on Dec 30, 2006 7:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm counting on this being false

I don't want to give up CoJack. I think he is going to get better every year and will be a star over the next couple years.

by DiamondbacksWIn on Dec 30, 2006 7:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Johnson

I can't believe the brain trust would be so foolish as to spend money on a 43yr fastball pitcher who has lost his volicity. The Yankees can provide him run support to overcome his high ERA does anyone think the Dbacks can? I smell an Ortiz moment if this rumor comes to past.

by kylerkenney on Dec 30, 2006 8:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The difference between Ortiz and Johnson...

Ortiz's peripherals pointed to a sharp increase in his ERA when he was acquired - his DIPS% in 2004 was 8th-worst in the National League at 1.21, basically meaning he had been very lucky to get the ERA he had. We would have been wise to listen to that statistic. :-( Johnson's don't, and while last year was certainly not impressive, there's also the issue of his back, that could explain the problems last year. He's exactly the sort of buy-low player we should go after. Let's just hope these rumours are false, or we won't be buying low at all...

by Jim McLennan on Dec 30, 2006 10:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs