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All I want for Christmas is...

A grumpy, 6'10" former Cy Young winner? While we might not quite be able to unwrap Randy Johnson this morning, it seems like the topic is at least being talked about. The story takes a long time to get to any actual facts, spending most of its column-inches printing denials from various parties. But the last couple of paragraphs contain some actual meat:

While the baseball official said Johnson had made overtures to the Yankees about a return to the Diamondbacks, a person close to Johnson -- who asked not to be identified because he could not confirm the trade talks -- said Johnson did not request a trade. The baseball official said the Yankees do not want to pay any of Johnson's salary as part of a deal. The Diamondbacks are considered to have one of the deeper farm systems, so the Yankees could continue their trend that started when they moved Gary Sheffield and Jaret Wright for players to restock their system.

Yeah, I'm sure the Yankees don't want to pay any of RJ's salary. But it's going to have to happen, because a) we don't have $16m left in the kitty, and b) let's be honest, Johnson isn't worth $16m, even in this high-flying market. The obvious touchstone is Andy Pettitte, to whom the Yankees are also scheduled to pay $16m next season. Let's compare and contrast the two mens' performance in 2006:

             IP  SO  WHIP  ERA+
Pettitte  214.1 178 1.437   108
Johnson   205.0 172 1.239    88

Actually, that was a lot closer than I expected, in every area except ERA+. Johnson seems to have been victimized by the long-ball since going to New York: he's allowed them at a rate of 1.25/nine IP, compared to 0.85 in his time with Arizona (or 0.86 career). And last year, the pitching park factor was Yankee Stadium was only 96, compared to Chase Field's 106. His strikeouts are down sharply too: 8.00/nine IP, which may sound a lot, but his career stat there is 10.77. I've a nasty feeling that the results, if he came back here, might not be pretty - and certainly are not worth $16m.

There's also the question of his health. At the end of October, Johnson had back surgery to repair a herniated disc. According to the surgeon, Dr. Robert Watkins, Johnson is expected to be ready by Spring Training, but a big questionmark must remain over his health. If it's not his back, then his knee, which has more missing parts than an Escalade left overnight in Tijuana. And let's face it: he's 43. Given the struggle I had getting up this morning - and I've still got a couple of years on RJ - I feel I can offer a personal insight here. And I didn't have surgery on a balky back two months ago...

On the other hand, there's no denying the appeal of a last hurrah for Johnson, back with the team for whom he achieved his greatest triumphs. In particular, he's now at 299 career victories - including his nineteen in the post-season. Even if you discount those, good health willing, he has an outside chance at reaching 300 wins this year, or almost certainly next. It'd be great to see him do that it AZ, especially since he could be the final pitcher to reach the mark for a long time. The next currently in line is Mike Mussina (239 victories at age 38), though Pedro Martinez (206, just turned 35) might have a better shot. Neither are guaranteed though.

Hope you are, in the words of the great philosopher Paul McCartney, "simply having a wonderful Christmas time." Mine has not been too bad, though having to get up at 7am, and drive to work as the temperature read 34F, was no fun. However, it has been very quiet here: in just over five hours, I have taken exactly four calls. I've spent more time trying to locate Area 51 on Yahoo Maps than actually providing customer service. I do note that large parts of the Nellis Air Force Range don't appear above a certain resolution instead being entirely - and possibly scarily appropriate - grey...

The good news is, we now have Tivo in SnakePit Towers! I got my Christmas present a couple of days early, and that should now take care of issues like the whole Sleeper Cell marathon. And perhaps also allow me to watch Diamondbacks' games, even if I have to work. In fact, it'll be more time-efficient that way, since I'll be able to whisk through all those pesky adverts, pitching changes, etc. Now, let's just see if I can do a Jedi mind-trick on my supe and talk him into letting me go early so I can play with my new toy...

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What players?
The story on ESPN said the following:
In need of starting pitching -- and a marquee name that will draw more fans -- the Diamondbacks have offered a package of at least three players, including a major-leaguer. They would also want a 72-hour window to negotiate an extension with Johnson, who is owed $16 million in the final year of his contract. The Yankees, according to the official, don't want to pick up any of Johnson's salary.

Which major-leaguer do you think we offered?  Tracy?  I don't know their system at all (I'm one of those typical AZ die-hard one team new baseball fans with limited knowledge outside the backs - so I'll leave it to you for educated speculation).

I also like reading the report about the 72 hour window to negotiate an extension ... seems like a smart move.

by Mister T in AZ on Dec 25, 2006 4:31 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

A publicity stunt?
I just called my buddy to tell him about this rumor.  He, like me, is a little nervous that this wouldn't be a good move for the team.

He thought maybe this wasn't a real deal move to try to get Randy - but instead was a deliberate attempt by Byrnes to get some news out there that they ARE trying to make some moves and improve the team ... getting our attention and hopefully getting our hopes up.  Then, if the yanks want too much, Randy doesn't waive the no-trade clause, or the 72 hour window doesn't result in an extension we like ... then they can walk away saying "we tried hard guys!".

The other possibility, if you are a conspiracy theorist on this, is that they DO want Randy for the same reasons above - not so much for play.  Get some pub, get people excited, and hopefully increase team revenue with new jersey and gear sales, tickets, etc.  In a way spending a little money to help put some muscle behind turning that battleship away from the pre-columbus era edge of the ocean.

by Mister T in AZ on Dec 25, 2006 4:36 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Number 2 to Webb?
I know, my third straight comment.  I probably should have done a diary but would rather be a part of this discussion here.

I know I am getting WAY in front of this, but Randy would definitely be number 2 in the rotation to Webb right?

Somehow, even though I know that is right, it seems odd.

by Mister T in AZ on Dec 25, 2006 4:37 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Interesting
I wonder how much we'd have to over-pay to get the Yanks to pick up a 6-8 mil of that contract?  I'm guessing Chris Carter will be involved.  Wouldn't surprise me if they also came in asking for a young arm like Nippert and even a bullpen arm like Valverde. If not both.

I'm going to lean towards 'no thanks' unless it's something like Carter and Adam Bass and the Yankees are picking up half the contract.

by nihil67 on Dec 25, 2006 4:57 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

a disaster in
the clubhouse and I want no part in it.  We got rid of RJ at the right time, I thought the idea was to improve by FA signings, letting the kids play everyday, or through a "smart" trade or two.  This whole talk is beyond insane and stinks of a media stunt more than anything.

by unnamedDBacksfan on Dec 25, 2006 5:51 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The major-leaguer that makes most sense...
Is Eric Byrnes. He'll be earning the most and he's easily replaceable. But would the Yankees want to pay $5-6m for a fourth outfielder? That only seems to make sense, if he's then being dealt on to another team: heard rumblings the Padres are also involved. Byrnes, Carter and a pitching prospect, for Johnson? Must say, I'd still want a few million coming our way to sweeten that pot, even if getting rid of EB would improve our team.

Couple of other possibilities though: Jorge Julio might be another name of interest, perhaps more so from the Yankees' end; less so from AZ's. Or perhaps Tony Clark, since the Yankees would seem to need a 1B next year? Rumors elsewhere do indicate Tracy + 2 minor-leaguers, so that might still happen, though who'd then be playing third for Arizona next year? There definitely seems to be enough to this to move it from the "wild speculation" level - such as this piece on mlb.com, which incidentally talks about minor-league starters being the target for the Yankees - though I still think it's probably unlikely to bear fruit. That $16m is the most likely sticking point: the Yankees very obviously want to spend it on Roger Clemens rather than Randy.

Baseball Prospectus is very enthusiastic about Johnson, saying "his peripherals translate to an ERA much closer to 4.00" last year. They point out that his real problem was with runners on base: they hit .321 off him, compared to .206 with the bases empty. That would seem to me an obvious sign that he had issues pitching from the stretch, and if that really was caused by the back problem, than 2007 Johnson could be back to full effect.

Oh, and no prob with the multiple posts, Mister T. This is likely to be THE main topic for the next couple of days, so might as well keep it in the main threads. :-)

by Jim McLennan on Dec 25, 2006 10:10 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

EB ...
Just kinda plays into your fantasy of getting rid of him, doesn't it Jim? :D

I think the Yankees are very loaded in outfielders and DH's, so I have to think that they are considering a bullpen arm for the setup role that Kyle Fransworth wasn't always effective in last season.  Since the loss of Tom Gordon, they flirted with a few different guys in the roll last year.  The interesting thing is if they are considering Julio, didn't he fail horribly in closer roles and setup roles on the East Coast in NY?  T mentioned Valverde, and don't we all feel like his mental state enters extreme states of nervousness depending on the month?

Tracy and Clark are interesting ... Clark was there in 2004 and provided some superior defense later in the Games against the BoSox in the 2004 ALCS, and Tracy might have to RE-revert back to backup first base/backup third base/back up DH.  That's what makes me see Tracy as someone they wouldn't be afraid to bait the trap with.  And his contract extension helps the Yank's since he's locked down and cheap in this market.

"Pepper needs new shorts!"

by npineda on Dec 26, 2006 4:30 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

RJ Ace Reliever?
Solves the problem of a lefty in the bullpen.
Might be overpaying him for such a role but I think it all comes down to how much it is worth to the organization that the D-backs' first Hall of Famer will end his career back home?

by William K on Dec 25, 2006 10:53 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Too expensive
But I have for some time thought that Randy should consider closing in his twilight years.  The only problem there is that knee and back injuries would definitely deteriorate faster with him pitching multiple days.

by nihil67 on Dec 25, 2006 11:31 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maybe ...
But I don't think those health problems are going to show up so much with no more then 50 pitches a week ... It would be like the World Series year, The Unit gets to come out of the Pen and Just let go with the fastball/slider.

He'd get to chase some strikeout records again, that's for sure.

"Pepper needs new shorts!"

by npineda on Dec 26, 2006 4:22 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Eh I don't know
I wouldn't be confortable paying a good portion of Randy's salary or giving up alot of talent for him. And one or the other has to happen for this to work.

Meh, I'll pass.

by Goose on Dec 26, 2006 4:47 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Check out the MLB.com story on team site
The indication from that article is that the Yankees are interested in two of the D backs young starter inventory, as well as a reliever. The "major leaguer" is most likely a reliever, not Byrnes or Tracy.

The indication from that article is also that the D backs are not inclined to pay that high a price, especially if the D backs are expected to absorb all or most of RJ's salary.

Basically what has happened here is RJ has reached out and said he would like to come home, and Josh Byrnes is doing his due diligence to see if there is a trade that makes sense.  But he is not going to bend over just to bring RJ back.

In addition, it is clear that Cashman is wisely trying to lure the other NL west teams into a bidding war for RJ, and in fact reports are now coming out that San Diego is the favorite to get him.

I'd be fine with that. I would love to see one of our division rivals mortgage a significant part of their future to try to win in 2007 while the D backs continue building for 2008 and beyond.

by shoewizard on Dec 26, 2006 10:41 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Last offseason ..
we'd talk about building for 2007 ... sigh.

by Mister T in AZ on Dec 26, 2006 12:14 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

keeps getting pushed out
later and later, doesn't it?
We should never, ever have "reached out' as it serves us no purpose whatsoever.

by unnamedDBacksfan on Dec 26, 2006 1:13 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

These things take time...
I think there's little doubt we're a better team now than we were at this time last year: even if it's only addition by the subtraction of Green, Gonzalez and Ortiz. Add in the arrival of Drew, Young and Quentin, the improvement shown by Hudson, and we're undoubtedly improved. With or without Johnson, I think we'll be in the pennant hunt later than the start of June this year.

by Jim McLennan on Dec 26, 2006 1:16 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I totally agree.
My thoughts are this -- if we are going to be finacially discipled to turn this battleship around (something the team must do) we need to STAY disciplined.

I absolutely do not want them to blow all the discipline of past years on any single move.

by Mister T in AZ on Dec 26, 2006 9:54 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The timeline was always 2008
The team has a good chance to finish over .500 just the way they are right now with no additional changes.

A playoff appearance in 2007 would  be gravy. Had they started the process of rebuilding a year earlier, instead of going with "reload" for 2005, or even if they had the cajones to just play Quentin and Drew and Young from the beginning of 2006, maybe their development would have advanced quickly enough to make the team a real threat to win the pennant in 2007.

But considering none of them even played a half season in the majors last year, obviously it is prudent to allow them the time to develop without expecting a world series trip just yet.

Anyway....everything is relevant to cost I guess. I'll just wait and see what happens.

by shoewizard on Dec 26, 2006 10:30 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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