AZ Snake Pit: FanPosts

Announcers

2013-05-21T03:01:33Z

This evenings game just proves how boring these current announcers are.

I miss Gracie more and more every game. Brenly is a good announcer

but I get so sick of the facts, numbers, and stats over and over its the same

thing over and over batter after batter. Steve B. brings nothing to the table,

absolutely nothing. There is no fun in the booth, no joking and no kidding

around just nubers and more and more numbers I am to the point that I just

mute the TV if I watch it or all or I just put the laptop on and watch the score.

Grace and Brennaman were the best announcing team ever.

The least we could do is get Gracie back. They were laying for him anyway

and that wide right turn is a sham. Granted he should have been more

aware but I think he did his time and we could bring him back to a huge

round of applause.

This evenings game just proves how boring these current announcers are.

I miss Gracie more and more every game. Brenly is a good announcer

but I get so sick of the facts, numbers, and stats over and over its the same

thing over and over batter after batter. Steve B. brings nothing to the table,

absolutely nothing. There is no fun in the booth, no joking and no kidding

around just nubers and more and more numbers I am to the point that I just

mute the TV if I watch it or all or I just put the laptop on and watch the score.

Grace and Brennaman were the best announcing team ever.

The least we could do is get Gracie back. They were laying for him anyway

and that wide right turn is a sham. Granted he should have been more

aware but I think he did his time and we could bring him back to a huge

round of applause.

Can Didi continue to hit?

2013-05-20T16:18:31Z

Nick P has a great article today that examines all players in MLB history in an attempt to find ONE that has done what Didi is currently doing - outperforming almost 2,000 ABs in the minor leagues at an OPS below .725. Turns out there are only 18 players in MLB history with that many minor league at bats with an OPS below .725 that stuck in MLB for more than 500 ABs (guess what - Cliff Pennington is one of them). Of those 18 players, exactly ONE exceeded his minor leauge OPS in MLB. Not an encouraging trend. See Nick's article at http://www.azcentral.com/insiders/nickpiecoro/2013/05/18/didi-gregorius-outperforming-his-track-record-farm-report-other-stuff/

What happened to Miguel Montero?

2013-05-19T20:57:07Z

Just wanted to take a quick look at some of the saber-metrics involved with Miggy's offense and try to isolate the root cause of all of his offensive struggles so far in 2013. Obviously, I'm not Bill James (or shoewizard) so feel free to throw stones at me if my analysis is off base. Looking at some of the numbers below, I think there are some visible trends that are worth noting.

For starter's, let's look at Miggy's numbers through the first 39 games (not including today's matinee) and compare that with his career. Is it common for him to struggle early in the season?

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	BB:K
2013	.184	.281	.265	.546	3	19:30
2012	.248	.342	.333	.675	2	17:40
2011	.258	.349	.430	.779	4	15:23
2010	.308	.369	.469	.837	4	15:29
2009	.228	.347	.356	.704	2	17:23
2008	.245	.336	.316	.653	0	14:25
2007	.204	.270	.357	.627	4	9:16
*Career*	*.239*	*.327*	*.360*	*.688*

So short answer, yes. Miggy has traditionally been off to a slow start throughout the majority of his career. Save for an impressive 2010 and a decent 2011 and it's not an uncommon theme to see him struggle early in the season. It is interesting that the number of strikeouts has jumped in recent years. That may be a symptom of Montero pressing harder to get out of the slump. Still, it begs the question - why is this season is so abnormal? What the eff happened? Let's look at batted ball and advanced batting and see what we find:

For starter's, let's look at Miggy's numbers through the first 39 games (not including today's matinee) and compare that with his career. Is it common for him to struggle early in the season?

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	BB:K
2013	.184	.281	.265	.546	3	19:30
2012	.248	.342	.333	.675	2	17:40
2011	.258	.349	.430	.779	4	15:23
2010	.308	.369	.469	.837	4	15:29
2009	.228	.347	.356	.704	2	17:23
2008	.245	.336	.316	.653	0	14:25
2007	.204	.270	.357	.627	4	9:16
*Career*	*.239*	*.327*	*.360*	*.688*

Year	BABIP	BB%	K%	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%
2013	.206	11.9%	18.8%	16.4%	50%	33.6%	2.7%
Career	.311	9.6%	19.3%	19.8%	41.8%	38.5%	8.1%

Lots to talks abouts heres. Montero's BABIP is obviously due for some positive regression but that won't start happening until his GB% goes down. A player's BABIP won't look very good if he is consistently hitting ground balls at infielders. Miggy isn't walking as much which could be a side affect of his slump as opposing pitcher's are more willing to attack the zone to a guy hitting below the Uecker line. He is striking out at a normal rate despite having a higher K total early in the season than in the past. It's the last four stats that are probably the most telling. Miggy is having trouble getting under the ball. He's grounding out more and hitting fewer line drives and fly balls. His infield fly percentage is even down, which is good, but highlights the fact that Miggy isn't getting many swings that put a ball in the air.

So how are opposing pitcher's responding to this? Is Miggy seeing an unusual amount of off-speed pitches? Why would he suddenly be struggling to hit? Let's look at pitch selections:

Year	FB%	SL%	CT%	CB%	CH%	Other
2013	59.1%	13.8%	6.0%	8.6%	11.8%	2.9%
Career	59.9%	13.3%	4.2%	9.4%	11.1%	4.0%

It's probably a stretch to say that Miggy has been pitched much differently now than he has been in the past. You have to account for small percentage changes year over year because he faces different sets of pitcher's with different repertoires each season. That being said, Miggy is currently seeing more cutters and less breaking balls than he has throughout his career. No red flags that would correspond with any of his recent struggles, though.

The Dreaded Thumb Injury:

It's always worth bringing up injuries when a player is struggling. Miggy was sidelined for over a week in Spring Training this year for what was considered an "unidentified thumb injury". They drained puss from it, they called it a splinter, they said it wasn't a splinter, it was all very covert. In the end, Montero eventually came back to finish Spring Training without much of an issue, hitting .324/.325/.405 over 37 at-bats. Could the thumb injury be lingering or acting up again? Possibly but if it is, no one is saying anything about it.

So what does this all mean? Welp, I don't know, quit asking. It's obvious that Miggy needs to adjust his mechanics because he's not lifting the ball like he used to. Whether it's related to an unidentified injury or if Miggy needs to spend some time in the batting cage, hopefully it gets fixed soon. Something needs to change.

Game#44 Diamondbacks 1, Marlins 2. Diamondbacks foiled by feckless fish

2013-05-19T20:44:31Z

Record: 25-19. Pace: 92-70. Change over last year: +6.

Pitchers duel at the aquarium in Miami as Ricky Nolasco struck out 11 in 8+ innings of work. Wade Miley pitched a solid game until the 6th inning. In the sixth he allowed three hits, two of which were inexplicably to the only players on the Marlins who know what to do with those sticks they carry around.

Nolasco popped out to start the sixth. Adeiny Hechavarria singled to center. Placido Polanco flied out to left. This was followed by a single to right by Derek Dietrich. This brought up Marcell Ozuna. Mr. Ozuna hit a booming double to left field that scored the Marlins only runs.

Arizona took a collective K in the eighth before making it interesting in the ninth. Didi Gregorious led off with a double to chase Nolasco from the game in favor of de facto closer (do you really need a closer when you don't win games?) Steve Cishek. The sidearming Cishek promptly gave up a ground ball from the bat of Paul Goldschmidt up the middle that seemed destined to drive in a run and put the tying run on base. A brilliant play by Dietrich put an end to those dreams. He slid to his left to make the stop and unleashed a very strong throw to first to get Goldy by a step. Cishek was suprisingly left in to face lefty batting Jason Kubel. Mr. Kubel promptly followed with a sacrifice fly to left. Eric Chavez pinch hit for Cody Ross and worked the count for a walk. Finally, Manager Mike Redmond made the move to lefty Mike Dunn to face Miguel Montero. Montero, who has struggled mightily all year, worked out a clutch walk. AJ Pollock pinch hit for Cliff Pennington and worked the count full before bouncing a routine ball to shortstop to end the game.

The Marlins won this game despite themselves. I think we have been spoiled by watching Kirk Gibson make the correct move time after time. Sometimes the right move does not work out, but it still is the right move. Some examples: in the ninth, after the hit by Didi, the Marlins brought in the righty closer (with an ERA over five coming in) to face Goldschmidt. That is playing with fire. They should have walked Goldy (yes, that would be the tying run, but you cant face Goldy in that situation) and brought in Dunn to face Kubel. Yes it worked out thanks to a great play, bur you can't plan on those. The Marlins then have the choice of Dunn/Ross or Cishek/Chavez matchups. Either way you bring in Cishek to face Prado....

Miguel Montero and Josh Collmenter combined to make a pretty cool catch. Heccavarria popped up a bunt that MIggy dove for and couldnt quite get, but tipped it up to Collmenter who tipped it higher and the air and caught with his bare hand. I think I saw them working on that play in Spring Training.

Cool article by Nick Piecoro talking about the hot start to his career by Didi Gregorious(who had three hits). I am enjoying the ride while he is on it, but I don't think he can keep this start up.

Source: FanGraphs

The Star Trek with the Whales in It:Eric Chavez (4.1%)
All the Other Star Treks: AJ Pollock (-22.7%)

Big thanks to TucsonDback for being the guest recapper today. Remember, if you want to do one of these, sign up in the next post, or email Jim. Not a particularly busy Gameday Thread, and I'm going to blame the 10am start. Even the people in it weren't particularly talkative, more time being spent on Clefo's pizza dilemma than the game, I think. All present were: AJV19, AzDbackfanInDc, AzRattler, Clefo, Diamondhacks, Fangdango, G.O.B., GuruB, Marc Fournier, Paper Clip, TolkienBard, azshadowwalker, blank_38, hotclaws, onedotfive, rd33, and me.

The D-backs start a three game set tomorrow in Colorado, first pitch is at 5:40pm Arizona time. Be here, or be somewhere else.

Record: 25-19. Pace: 92-70. Change over last year: +6.

Cool article by Nick Piecoro talking about the hot start to his career by Didi Gregorious(who had three hits). I am enjoying the ride while he is on it, but I don't think he can keep this start up.

Source: FanGraphs

The Star Trek with the Whales in It:Eric Chavez (4.1%)
All the Other Star Treks: AJ Pollock (-22.7%)

The D-backs start a three game set tomorrow in Colorado, first pitch is at 5:40pm Arizona time. Be here, or be somewhere else.

I am the D'Backs' "GM" for John Sickels' Mock FA Draft next month

2013-05-13T03:21:26Z

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/5/12/4324548/arizona-dbacks-mod-2013

Input from the crew here would be more than welcome. My assessment of the system is that it is short on power hitting prospects, and of course high-ceiling pitchers are always nice.

My assessment of Towers is that he believes in the old adage "draft HS hitters and College pitchers" so that is the direction I would tend go when there is not an obvious value available.

If any of you have insight into the current thinking of the organization, that would be welcome. I think we will draft through the 4th round, so that will give us an opportunity to try to forecast the Snakes' top 5 picks.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/5/12/4324548/arizona-dbacks-mod-2013

Input from the crew here would be more than welcome. My assessment of the system is that it is short on power hitting prospects, and of course high-ceiling pitchers are always nice.

My assessment of Towers is that he believes in the old adage "draft HS hitters and College pitchers" so that is the direction I would tend go when there is not an obvious value available.

Diamondbacks 2, Phillies 4: Opposite Day

2013-05-13T02:06:34Z

Record 21-17. Pace: 90-72. Change on 2012: +5

So, how did I celebrate Mother's Day? I closed the bedroom door, let the spouse take care of the kids, and watched baseball. Isn't that what it's all about anyway? The Diamondbacks just didn't cooperate by winning the game. Instead, they thought it was Opposite Day.

For the first eight innings, it looked like Opposite Day was going to be a good thing for Arizona. Brandon McCarthy had a truly great start, his first of the year. I thought this was going to be something I could crow about, since I recapped Trevor Cahill's first good start of the season, too. Sadly, ‘twas not to be. The bad side of Opposite Day reared its ugly head in the tenth inning, when Matt Reynolds gave up his first earned run(s) of the season, and Arizona lost its first extra-inning game of this year.

The tale of Arizona's game can be found in ESPN's box score:

BATTING
2B: D Gregorius (6, J Papelbon)
3B: D Gregorius (1, K Kendrick)
HR: G Parra (3, 1st inning off K Kendrick 0 on, 0 Out)
RBI: G Parra (11), A Pollock (15)
2-out RBI: A Pollock
Diamondbacks RISP: 1-6 (J Kubel 0-1, M Montero 0-1, A Pollock 1-1, E Chavez 0-1, M Prado 0-2)
Team LOB: 7

When you only have two RBI, and one of them is your lead-off guy? Maybe it's a bad thing.

The top of the first inning must have had Philadelphia wondering whether they prepared for the right guy, because McCarthy came out hitting his spots. He had strike outs of Ben Revere and Chase Utley acting as bookends to a Jimmy Rollins ground-out to Prado at second base. His breaking pitch was working really nicely both in and out of the zone, keeping hitters off balance.

In the Arizona half of the inning, Gerardo Parra worked into a 1-2 count off of Kyle Kendrick before deciding to play the part of the power-hitting right fielder, sending a lead-off home run over the right field fence. Didi Gregorious followed, also getting into a two-strike (2-2, to be exact) count before hitting a triple into the right-center gap. Unfortunately, Martin Prado continued his struggling ways by striking out on four pitches.

Then, it got fun. Eric Chavez came up and chopped one to first. Instead of taking the out at first, Ryan Howard decided to go home, since Gregorious appeared to be running on contact. It looked like Didi had been hung out to dry, but Erik Kratz is not very good at this run-down thing. He slowly lumbered toward Didi, while Gregorious just sort of skipped slowly sideways back towards third. Kratz never picked up any speed to try to close the gap, so Didi was able to dive back into third. Meanwhile, Chavez ends up on second base.

Miguel Montero was next up. He had some bad swings, going for things out of the zone. I have to say I am feeling badly for Miggy right now. Anyway, he got it to 3-2 before making contact. Again, Gregorious seemed to break for home on contact. Again, Ryan Howard threw home. This time, there was no rundown, and Didi made the second out at home. Montero got to first on the fielder's choice, and Chavez moved up to take the spot at third. So, was Arizona going to waste a triple with no outs?

Fortunately, they did not. A.J. Pollock came up and hit the second pitch back up the middle to score Chavez. Around this time, Bob Brenly noted that Kyle Kendrick was having issues with his cut fastball, and how that pitch can so easily blow up in a pitcher's face. In short, Brenly is not a fan of the cut fastball.

Meanwhile, Jason Kubel came up to bat. He would end the inning on a ground ball to Utley at second. Maybe I'm wrong that Gibby won't platoon his two highest-paid outfielders for long. He had the option to sit either Pollock or Parra today, and chose to sit Ross instead. For now, he seems to be happy with Pollock in center and Parra in right. I guess it's a good thing he did so, since they were responsible for the only two RBI.

Things didn't go quite as smoothly for McCarthy in the top of the 2nd, but he managed to get through it fine. He got his third strike-out of the game when Ryan Howard went down on three straight pitches. Delmon Young was able to single past a diving Gregorious, but was put out by Prado on fielder's choice by Dominic Brown. Freddy Galvis lined a single into right, moving up Brown. All was for naught when Erik Kratz hit into another fielder's choice that saw Galvis out at second base. So, no harm, no foul through two.

Unfortunately, Arizona couldn't do any harm in the bottom of the inning, either. Eric Hinske couldn't hold up on strike three, then both McCarthy and Parra hit easy balls back to Kendrick to wrap things up.

The game seemed to be moving along at a brisk pace, with another 1-2-3 inning for McCarthy in the bottom of the third. Kendrick popped out in foul territory on the left side of the infield. Revere grounded out to short, and Rollins struck out on four pitches. That would be four strike-outs for Brandon through three innings.

Kendrick decided he'd like to do the 1-2-3 inning, as well. This one would hurt a bit more. Gregorious popped out to Utley in shallow right. Prado hit a chopper to third. Then, came the pain. Chavez came up and hit a long fly ball to left. It looked like it was going out, but Brown decided he was going to play defense or something, and went up over the wall to make the third out.

The top of the fourth would see Utley fly out to shallow right, and Howard hit a pop-up to shallow left. Two down. Young would get a base hit to right field before McCarthy would end the threat by getting one hit back to the mound by Brown. The bottom of the inning would be even quicker, as Montero, Pollock and Kubel went down in order. At this point, Kendrick had dismissed ten Diamondbacks in a row.

The fifth would see McCarthy face Galvis to lead off. Galvis was able to take a low pitch and flip it out into shallow right. This is one thing I noticed with several of the hits off McCarthy today; they weren't bad pitches. The Philly hitters were just taking the low one, and doing whatever they could with it. That's a plus for Brandon. Anyway, Kratz followed with the fifth Philly strike-out of the day. Kendrick bunted Galvis to second, but Revere ended the inning with a grounder to short.

Kendrick would keep doing his thing, though. By the time Hinske had flied out to right and McCarthy had grounded out to second, the Philly pitcher had dismissed twelve in a row. It was on Parra to end that streak...and he did by hitting an infield grounder to the left side. Runners are good. Kendrick would then return to form by striking out Gregorious on a 3-2 inside strike.

The sixth would see a base runner for each team. Rollins flied out to left, Utley got on base with a single to center, Howard moved Utley up by grounding out to first, and Young flied out to right. Prado started things off for Arizona by grounding out to the short stop. Chavez got on base with a line drive to center. Miggy looked lost up there again, striking out. It all came to a close with Pollock hitting to short, and Chavez being put out at second. The game was still just flying by.

McCarthy was still going strong in the seventh inning. After getting Brown to fly out to left, he let Galvis on with a single up the middle. Then came the 6-4-3 double play off the bat of Kratz to end any hopes the Phillies might have had. Crushing hopes is what McCarthy strives for.

Arizona tried to look threatening in their half of the inning. Kubel was able to get a base hit single to right when it looked like Young made a bad read. Hinske flied out to left. McCarthy came up to bunt Kubel over, but did a less-than-stellar job of it. He got the bunt down (well, up, since he popped it up to the mound). Kendrick let it fall to the ground, then turned around and threw Kubel out at second. McCarthy to first on the fielder's choice. At the time, I wondered if if Gibby should have pulled McCarthy for a pinch hitter. Let him go out on a high note, and go for the offense. It's a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't scenario, for sure. Parra would end the inning by bouncing out to Galvis at third.

In the top of the eighth, Charlie Manuel decided that was a day for Kendrick. Michael Young came in to pinch hit, and was able to line one to right for a single. Manuel tried to get tricky again--too tricky, maybe--by pinch hitting Laynce Nix (of the superfluous "y") for Revere. Nix hit into a 4-6-3 double play. Rollins popped out to Didi on the first pitch he saw. Jeremy Horst replaced Kendrick on the mound in the bottom of the inning. He did quick work, getting a fly-out from Gregorious and strike-outs from both Prado and Chavez. Good guys still ahead...for now.

Then, came that annoying Heath Bell Experience talk. Bell has been doing well lately, so it's hard to hate on the guy...but, damn! This was not fun. Utley would double to right on the third pitch. Howard moved Utley up to third when he grounded out to second. D. Young came up and worked the count full. It's important to note this at-bat, because Bell was the beneficiary of a "strike" that was way outside. Arizona would later face the same kind of calls, but this wasn't a one-sided thing. Delmon did what he should have, despite the call: he doubled to right field, driving Utley in. One run game. We're still gonna win, right? Please?

Anway, John Mayberry, Jr. was sent in to pinch run for D. Young, because we've all seen the comedy of Young trying to run the bases. Brown was able to get a grounder by Gregorious for a game-tying RBI single. No good, folks. No good at all. Galvis would then pop out in foul territory on the left side of the infield. Manuel sent Carlos Ruiz in to pinch hit for Kratz. This would lead to another base hit single, moving Brown up to second. At this point, Bob Brenly was trying to blame the pink seams for Heath Bell's issues. Um...no. The pink seams didn't seem to bother Brad Ziegler, who came in for his usual one-pitch out and dismissed Kevin Frandsen. Whole new ball game in the bottom of the ninth.

Would we get extras, or would the Diamondbacks find a way to pull this one out in their half? Well, you already read the first few paragraphs, right? Antonio Bastardo would get Miggy to ground out to first, then strike out Pollock. Cody Ross was sent in to pinch hit for Kubel. Wow, did you ever think you'd see that? It worked out, with Ross working the walk out of Bastardo. The GDT was calling for Goldschmidt, and Gibby heard them. The Golden One walked towards the batter's box. Manuel came out to make sure that Goldschmidt had been announced as the batter. (Rules, people, rules!) Yes, he was assured that he had. In came the right-handed Justin De Fratus...to strike out Goldschmidt. Ugh.

But it's all good, right? Arizona was 6-0 in extras. That had to mean something. Well, it means they're now 6-1 in extras, I guess. Matt Reynolds came in to pitch the top of the tenth. Goldy stayed in at first, and Ross stayed in at left field. Reynolds had been the relief-pitching Super Man so far, so this was reassuring. Our best outfielders, our young star at first, and our best relief pitcher. You did forget this was Opposite Day, though, didn't you?

It started out well, with Nix grounding out to first. Rollins would line a 2-2 pitch to left for a single. Utley would follow up with a line drive to right field for a double, moving Rollins to third. Howard at the plate. He who has had a horrendous series. Howard would promptly remember how to hit, depositing a 2-1 pitch into shallow right for a single, two RBI and the lead. And, thus ended the 22-appearance scoreless streak and 0.00 ERA of Matt Reynolds. Things would seem to settle down when Mayberry, Jr. struck out, but Brown followed that by hitting a single up the middle and moving Howard to second. Reynolds would finally end the inning by striking out Galvis.

Time for Arizona to try to get to Jonathan Papelbon, who had thrown 29 pitches for five outs the night before. Cliff Pennington was sent in to pinch hit for the pitcher's spot. He would be called out on a third strike that...wasn't. Much like the strike against Miggy last night and the strike given to Bell in the ninth, it was way outside. Parra would take a strike on the inside corner before chopping one back to Papelbon for the second out. Gregorious continued his light-hitting ways with a double to left field. Now, Prado was the last hope. I love Martin, but that didn't fill me with confidence. And it shouldn't have, because he would fly out to center on his second pitch. Game over.

Oh, well. I guess the Diamondbacks weren't going to be perfect in extra innings and Reynolds wasn't going to end the season with a 0.00 ERA. It's just a huge bummer for McCarthy. Then again, McCarthy has let his offense down in his other appearances. Have to get this "team" thing together for Brandon's starts.

COTD:
Early on, I was going to give this to Clefo's comment about Angel Hernandez checking the replay, but Paper Clip swooped in later. Since I lifted the comment for the recap's theme, I had to go with:



Brandon doing good, Matt sucking

ITS OPPOSITE DAY

by Paper Clip on May 12, 2013 | 4:00 PM reply flag actions

Bells and whistles, by Jim

[Click to enlarge, at fangraphs.com]
Mother Theresa: Brandon McCarthy, 49.6%
Mother Superior: Brad Ziegler, +11.8%
Mother ******: Matt Reynolds, -40.1%
Mothers of Tears: Bell, -39.4%; Montero, -16.6%; Prado, -12.0%

Appropriately, a good day for the ladies in the comments, the top three being Songbird, Clefo and onedotfive, with asteroid just behind them. Also to be seen: AJV19, AzDbackfanInDc, AzRattler, Britback, Dutchfan, GuruB, Jim McLennan, JoeCB1991, Marc Fournier, Paper Clip, The so-called Beautiful, TolkienBard, TylerO, azshadowwalker, blank_38, coldblueAZ, ford.williams.10, hotclaws, imstillhungry95, luckycc, rd33, snakecharmer and soco.

Record 21-17. Pace: 90-72. Change on 2012: +5

The tale of Arizona's game can be found in ESPN's box score:

BATTING
2B: D Gregorius (6, J Papelbon)
3B: D Gregorius (1, K Kendrick)
HR: G Parra (3, 1st inning off K Kendrick 0 on, 0 Out)
RBI: G Parra (11), A Pollock (15)
2-out RBI: A Pollock
Diamondbacks RISP: 1-6 (J Kubel 0-1, M Montero 0-1, A Pollock 1-1, E Chavez 0-1, M Prado 0-2)
Team LOB: 7

When you only have two RBI, and one of them is your lead-off guy? Maybe it's a bad thing.



Brandon doing good, Matt sucking

ITS OPPOSITE DAY

by Paper Clip on May 12, 2013 | 4:00 PM reply flag actions

Bells and whistles, by Jim

Random Thoughts

2013-05-10T20:55:46Z

From time to time I get random thoughts that pop into my head and usually I just utter them to my wife. She likes the Diamondbacks but frankly, she's not nearly into the game as much as I am. So, I've begun to just keep my thoughts to myself lately.

However, now that I've discovered a captive audience here on AzSnakePit.com, I've realized I can now drop bombs on my peeps like a schoolyard bully dropping the pants of his victims. Ok, not really sure how that visualization really matches the intent of the message but you all get the point, right?

So here are my random thoughts for 5-10-13.

1. I'm glad I was right about JJ. I predicted it was just a strained arm with pinched ulnar nerve. Yay me. It took me a little over a month to overcome the same injury myself and I had to learn a different throwing motion to avoid having the same problem happen again to my arm. I don't know that JJ will have to change his throwing motion, but he will need at least a month even with rehab.

2. With JJ out for a month, there's a good chance Heath Bell might take over the closing spot permanently... assuming he continues to do well in the spot.

3. The stat that jumps out at me the most: .222 BA with RISP. That puts them at 22nd in all of MLB. When there is no one on base, they're the best in MLB at .295. Miggy and Prado's cold bats, and the absence of Hill are really being felt. The guys that are supposed to knock in the runs besides Goldie. But despite those poor numbers, they're tied for 1st in the division and 2nd most wins in MLB as of this article. Just think what will happen if Miggy and Prado get hot, then Hill comes back.

4. I say this absolutely loving the way this guy plays baseball, but they NEED to trade AJ Pollock soon. His stock is slowly going down. We've seen what he can do and at times he's lightning in a bottle, but not enough to be an impact player on this roster. He's been in a long slow slump and soon when Adam Eaton comes back someone will have to go back down to Triple-A. It would be better to send him somewhere and get a lefty middle reliever to give even more options in the bullpen, or even another backup to Goldie at 1st while he is still seen as valuable enough to be had by some other team. Sending AJ back down would just drop his market value, and he would only be good as an option if someone else got hurt in the outfield. We already have plenty of options in the outfield. Right now we could do without AJ altogether really. It's possible to trade him right now, even without Adam back. We have 3 solid outfielders and Martin can even play out there if needed until Adam's return.

5. Miggy still doesn't look right at the plate. As odd as it may sound, I think he needs to go back to the approach he's had the last couple years at the plate. Swing wildly until he gets 2 strikes. THEN settle down his swing and just try to find a hole. He looks almost too cautious at the plate and I think it's because it's been drilled into him that he needs to settle down his swing.

6. I predicted earlier that this will be the best year Cahill has ever had. I still think so. His ball movement is just ridiculous. He gets into trouble when the umpire gets deceived and doesn't know when a strike is a strike because of all the movement.

7. Can we call the McCarthy experiment over yet? I know Skaggs hasn't exactly been everything we've hoped for down in Triple-A, but I don't see how we could get any worse.

8. When will teams learn you shouldn't run on Parra? I'm glad they haven't learned yet, but still. You'd think the scouting reports would highlight this.

9. Didi is BETTER than a young Derek Jeter. Well, so far.

So here are my random thoughts for 5-10-13.

2. With JJ out for a month, there's a good chance Heath Bell might take over the closing spot permanently... assuming he continues to do well in the spot.

7. Can we call the McCarthy experiment over yet? I know Skaggs hasn't exactly been everything we've hoped for down in Triple-A, but I don't see how we could get any worse.

8. When will teams learn you shouldn't run on Parra? I'm glad they haven't learned yet, but still. You'd think the scouting reports would highlight this.

9. Didi is BETTER than a young Derek Jeter. Well, so far.

Post your lineups

2013-05-07T16:49:46Z

With the pending Adam Eaton return, I'm getting really excited to see what this "gritty" (want) team will look like. It got me thinking, what would the lineup look like once everyone is back and now that we have Didi playing out of his mind?

Here's my list:

1. Adam Eaton

4. Aaron Hill

6. Didi Gregorious

8. Kubel/Ross

9. Pitcher's spot

You may be asking why Kubel or Ross is hitting 8th, but if you look closely essentially we have two sets of "top of the lineup". Eaton and Parra are leadoff guys. Didi and Prado are good two-holes. Goldie and Miggy both have gap power for the three-hole. Then Hill and Kuble/Ross bat cleanup. It's almost as if you get to play the top of your lineup twice!

How would you stack em, if you were Gibby and everyone is healthy?

Here's my list:

1. Adam Eaton

4. Aaron Hill

6. Didi Gregorious

8. Kubel/Ross

9. Pitcher's spot

How would you stack em, if you were Gibby and everyone is healthy?

Pitching Ourselves out of Contention

2013-05-06T18:16:24Z

Looking at this team and the moves that they made in the off season, it seemed to me that in order for them to win series, they would need to have strong starting pitching and the bullpen would have to be able to close out games. This formula is true for any team, yet it seemed especially true for the new 2013 DBacks. Given that the DBacks dont have that one formidable bat in the lineup that requires opposing pitchers to pitch around, it figured that their run production would come from playing "small ball" , therefore not averaging many runs per game and if they won they would win games by a close margin. This is where the pitching comes into play, especially the bullpen. If the DBacks are only going to be able to average one or two run leads at the most when winning, then the bullpen cant keep collapsing and has to perform as expected. As for starters, Corbin is the #5 and had clearly out pitched the Ace of the staff Kennedy, who is off to another bad start to the season. The bullpen has to pick it up now as we cant affort to give away more games, maybe Putz shouldn't close games right now?? Whats the alternative? Hernandez ... Bell ....Reynolds...? As far as Kennedy, 6 starts and no wins is a recipe for putting your team out of playoff contention by June. I like the lineup when all are healthy, there are quality hitters despite the lack of a power hitter that can produce runs , Goldschmidt seems to be creeping close to that role of big bat and Eaton looked real good this Spring as a leadoff man. The pitching has to get us through the injuries and establish some consistency at the top of the rotation and at the end of games, otherwise we can start to look forward to a long summer.

Despite gloom and doom there's plenty of good

2013-05-03T18:19:50Z

After Hernandez's crumbling in the 8th inning by walking two and giving up a home run to Brandon Belt, I too had that "Oh no, not again" sensation. Memories of the 2010 bullpen were clearly at the forefront of my mind. It's hard to let go of the awful images where leads would be given up like outs on the basepads by Parra.

What I have to keep reminding myself of though, is that these are the same guys from 2011... not 2010. Names like Quals, Gutierrez, Rosales, and Valdez are all gone. No, this is the bullpen of 23 wins and 14 losses. JJ Putz with an ERA of 2.17 and 45 saves with only 4 blown. David Hernandez with an ERA of 3.38, 34 holds/saves and 3 blown in 2011.

This very same bullpen we're all worried about was the poster-child for turn around's and would have earned a most improved bullpen if there was such an award.

But here's the thing. 16 straight days with no days off for the bullpen is much more taxing than I think we're all realizing. Have you ever tried throwing a ball as hard and fast as you can 20-30 times a night, every night for 2 weeks? I bet your arm would be a little dead too. JJ's velocity is showing it.

In the final game against the Rockies when JJ "had his stuff working", his fastball was in the 94-95 MPH range. That made his splitfinger much more devastating and he didn't have to rely on location as much. When he gave up the 2 run home run to Pablo Sandoval, he was only throwing it around 90-91. It's much easier to sit on a splitfinger when you can still turn on a fastball late.

There's more good hope too.

The team is sitting on a 15-13 record after facing the toughest schedule in all of baseball. They're only 2 back in the division. What's even more remarkable is that they're doing it with a patchwork of guys who weren't supposed to be the producers. For the first month of the season we've had Hill, Kubel, Bloomquist, Eaton, Hudson, and Gregorious all sitting on the bench with an injury at some point. Add those guys back into a lineup with Parra, Pollock, Ross, Goldschmidt, and Chavez then you've got a good shot at being tops in the division.

I haven't even mentioned yet two guys that WILL get hot as the season gets going. Montero and Prado. Does anyone doubt their bats will be warming up soon enough? Montero is hitting screamers to outfielders. He's not poping up like Chris Young did during his struggles. No, he's hitting line drives right to someone. This can only go on so long before they start finding gaps and turning into doubles. I think Prado is still trying to get used to the pitching in the NL West which is very good compared to the rest of the league.

The NL West features 4 teams in the top 10 of the NL for ERA. All 5 are in the top 15. The ERA average for all of the teams the D-Backs have faced is 3.81.

Cardinals - 3.14

Brewers - 4.26

Pirates - 3.87

Dodgers - 3.96

Yankees - 4.00

Rockies - 3.72

Giants - 3.71

You could understand why a player might be struggling a little bit against pitching like that, let alone a whole team. Instead they're only 2 back.

June should be a the bust out month for the Diamondbacks. Everyone should be healthy and they get Hudson back in the rotation. As long as the Diamondbacks can stay this close to the top of the division through May, we could be looking at another surprise team like in 2011. My hope is certainly not lost. There is still 5/6ths of the year to go. We're a long way from the home stretch.

This very same bullpen we're all worried about was the poster-child for turn around's and would have earned a most improved bullpen if there was such an award.

There's more good hope too.

The NL West features 4 teams in the top 10 of the NL for ERA. All 5 are in the top 15. The ERA average for all of the teams the D-Backs have faced is 3.81.

Cardinals - 3.14

Brewers - 4.26

Pirates - 3.87

Dodgers - 3.96

Yankees - 4.00

Rockies - 3.72

Giants - 3.71

You could understand why a player might be struggling a little bit against pitching like that, let alone a whole team. Instead they're only 2 back.

Is it too early to start to worry?

2013-04-25T17:23:07Z

Since the opening of the season I have been excited about our team. Here were my early expectations.

1) Bullpen would be solid with JJ, David, one pitch Brad, and the precarious addition of Heath Bell.

2) Lots of singles and doubles, not so many home runs. Marry-go-round style innings should average at least once a game with all these guys that "grind out" at bats.

3) Goldschmidt would be our new superstar. He would show us what patience at the plate would bring and probably lead the league in doubles.

4) Prado would epitomize team play both on the diamond, and at home plate.

5) Starting pitching would be all #2 starters for any other team.

So far, it's been mixed results and honestly I'm somewhat worried.... but there is hope.

First, the bullpen has been awful on this latest road trip. JJ and David have both given up way too many leads leading to closer games than we would expect.

Second, we have 21 home runs in 21 games. With Aaron Hill, and Jason Kubel out due to injuries, would you have expected them to be averaging one home run per game? As far as "merry-go-round" innings, I don't believe they've gone through all 9 batters in one inning this year. A new stat I was hoping this team would cause the baseball world to create.

Goldschmidt HAS stepped up in a big way. BA .329, OBP .426, and SLG .557. These are the numbers I think everyone was hoping to see from BPWSNBN (Braves Player Who Shall Not Be Named) while he was here. I could have SWORN the team was emphasizing lower strike outs though and he ha 25. Not a category I was hoping to see him lead the team in.

Prado's ability to hit in crucial at bats remains to be seen. I've seen some very nice opposite field singles to advance the runner and put two men aboard. But when the pressure has been on, I can't think of a single time he's come through at the plate. He and Willie Bloomquist really seem like the same guy but without the back problems. He can play any position at any time. Problem is, that's not what we want him to be. We wanted a SOLID 3rd baseman. We didn't want him in left field. For cry'n out loud have have more outfielders than we know what to do with, why is he in left field???

Ian has been shaky. Aside from his first outing, he's getting hit a LOT. He has a 4.70 ERA right now which is the highest it's been since 2008 when he only pitched in 10 games. His WHIP is also on the rise to 1.304. Slightly above where it was last year. It's hard to see him keep the #1 spot in the rotation when you have Wade Miley and Patrick Corbin pitching outstanding games.

I think Trevor Cahill may have the best season of his career this year. Watching the movement on his fastballs is like the movement on Sergio Romo's slider. It's beastly. In fact, the only time's Trevor gets in trouble is when the Umpire can't tell if it's a strike or a ball because it moves around so much.

That leaves us with Brandon McCarthy. The sample size may be a bit too small, but clearly he is struggling. Even his offspeed pitches go in a straight line thigh high over the plate. I'm honestly surprised he's gotten anyone out. Not that I have any more talent than him, so who am I to criticize... but I fail to see how he deserves 3rd in our rotation. When Daniel Hudson comes back, I don't think Brandon has a chance to stay on this roster. There isn't even a spot in the bullpen for him.

So, where is the bright side?

Despite a series of injuries that would leave any other team floundering to stay out of last place in their division, the Diamondbacks still find a way to win. When the team has had their backs against the wall, they've still won giving them that "Grind it out" persona we've wanted to see. 5-0 in extra innings, and 7-0 in getaway games really shows they won't give up.

I'm almost as excited to see what happens in a month as I was for opening day when we have all these guys back.

Jason Kubel - .333 BA, .375 OBP, .600 SLG

Aaron Hill - .306 BA, .405 OBP, .556 SLG

Willie Bloomquist - .302 BA, .325, OBP, .398 SLG (last year)

and Adam Eaton.

Combine that with how well players like Gerardo Parra, Paul Goldschmidt, Didi Gregorious, and Cody Ross are playing and you have a team that might surprise everyone.

It may be a bit early, but here are some moves I would make.

Give Bell some closes and put JJ in for the 7th. Not permanent, just something to help JJ get his reps without the pressure.

Slowly reshuffle your starters to get Miley #1, Cahill #2, Corbin #3, Kennedy #4, and Skaggs #5. Yes, Skaggs at #5. I would have no problems if you switch Miley and Corbin. Corbin has shown he can go against other #1's.

Miggy needs a break from the middle of the lineup. Put him in the 8th spot so he has to start getting pickier about his selection. He's swinging at WAY too many bad pitches and not at the good ones. In the 8th spot he'll get even fewer good ones and he'll start to train himself to be more selective.

STOP PLAYING PENNINGTON EVERY DAY. I've nicknamed him "Auto-Out Cliff". I don't think I've seen him advance a runner or get on base in 2 weeks. Maybe when Chavez needs a day off you can put him out there, but aside from that he's not helping us win any games.

Lastly. I'm going to reach. Turn AJ Pollock into a backup infielder that can replace an aging Willie Bloomquist.

Dude's got range and an arm. You're telling me he couldn't make some plays for you at 2nd? Yes, again I know it's a reach but he fits in with the "grind it out" crowd. I don't want to see him gone when Eaton and Kubel come back. He's been a sparkplug for this team when they've needed it. I don't see how we could send him back down to Reno now.