2007: Fill in the Blanks, Part II

by Jim McLennan on Sep 20, 2006 4:08 PM EDT Comment 19 comments

With a few more pieces of the jigsaw puzzle either falling into place, or being thanked for their services and sent on their way, here is my current best guess at how the 2007 Opening Day Roster will shape up. I've also included salaries - estimated for some people (largely based on shoewizard's figures over at DBBP) - to give us an idea as to what we'll have left as far as payroll goes.

Starters
1B: Jackson - 360K
2B: Hudson - 3.3M
SS: Drew - 340K
3B: Tracy - 2.75M
C: Snyder - 360K
C: Montero - 340K
RF: Quentin - 340K
CF: Young - 340K
LF: Byrnes - 3.5M

Bench
Clark - 1M
DaVanon - 1.1M
Hammock - 340K
Callaspo - 340K

Rotation
P1: Webb - 4.5M
P2: ????
P3: Batista - 5M
P4: Hernandez 2.0 - 7M
P5: Edgar Gonzalez - 340K

Bullpen:
Cruz - 700K
Valverde - 800K
Medders - 350K
Lyon - 1.2M
Pena - 340K
Vizcaino - 2.5M
Slaten - 340K

The good news is, that only comes to a total of about $37.5m as it stands, with just one spot (the #2 pitcher) to fill. There are some caveats to the above, in that it doesn't include a) the amount we're paying to the Mets for Shawn Green, b) the amount we're paying to keep the Manatee in Twinkies and deep-fried chicken, and c) any component of Stephen Drew's signing bonus. With an expected payroll around the $60m mark, the question would be, which of the above extras are counted by the organization towards the total. That would decide how much we can afford to pay Pitcher #2 - most likely obtained through a trade rather than free agency.

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Hmm.

A potential lineup?
Drew
Jackson
Tracy
Quentin
Byrnes
Young
Hudson
Snyder/Montero

It's tough to put this together with no huge power threats and a handful of different capable leadoff hitters (Young, Byrnes or Hudson at the top of the order wouldn't be horrible either). I like Jackson in the 2 hole, and this does give a decent L/R/L setup compared to earlier this season with the huge lefty backup in the middle of the lineup.

Provided a capable #2 starter is signed and Valverde can be an above average closer next year, this sure has the feel of a playoff-contending team.

In my nightmares, I see Brian Bruney...make it stop...

by Azreous on Sep 20, 2006 4:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

PooPoo Grande will have a major implosion

PooPoo has no mental capacity to be the closer. He is a head case with just a fast ball. Unless someone convinces him to readjust his brainbox, he will get creamed with only the heater.

PooPoo will become a shoe salesman from his native country and that will be the last we see of him. His is a Matt Mantei with a Hispanic background.

See Ya, PooPoo.

livestrong & wear yellow; the truth is out there; it may not be true, but accurate, Dan Rather; bababooey to you all!

by icecoldmo on Sep 21, 2006 1:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

Valverde is not the man for the job long term. We will just get more of the same.

by DiamondbacksWIn on Sep 21, 2006 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Title? YEAH NL WEST TITLE

Hudson
Young
Tracy
Quentin
Drew
Byrnes
Jackson
Synder

F/A: No one
My Predictions: Hudson or Byrnes will lead off. BoMel said that Young has speed but has alot of power in his bat, so he could bat 2nd. Tracy will breakout with around 30 HRs so he is cleanup. Quentin could move to 3, but I see him as a 4 option since he is more speed, but his power may push him down to 4. Which isn't a bad thing. Drew might be around 2 or 6. I pushed Byrnes and Jackson down a bit, but I haven't got any thought of the real lineup yet.

Bench
Green
Callaspo
Hairston
Clark

Rotation
Webb
Hernandez
Batista
Ed Gonzalez
????
F/A interest: Wolf/Meche/Lidle/Armas
My Predictions: #5 starter will be named in ST. His name is Dustin Nippert.

Cruz
Medders
Vizcaino (we got to get him out of here)
Pena
Slaten
Lyon
Valverde
F/A: (interest) Kolb/Weathers/Springer/Dotel
My predictions: we will sign no one. Vizcaino will be traded before the season starts. Pena will not be closer, same for Valverde. Lyon will remain Setup. Medders will be closer.

"very cunning Mr. *VIII*" -- Jim

by Mr. Philosophical on Sep 20, 2006 6:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

uhg

It's kinda sad that Hudson has to bat leadoff. The lineup problems will start there when he regresses back to his career .335 OBP. I guess the problem is who's better? Young? Drew? I'd lean towards Young. The other thing I do is look at a guy like Dave Roberts instead of the one year wonder Eric Byrnes.
Edgar Gonzalez does not make the rotation next year. Dustin Nippert, Micah Owings, and Enrique Gonzalez are all more likely. I'm not sure what all of your's love affair with Miguel Batista is either. His numbers are terrible and he's going to be 36. No thanks.
"F/A interest: Wolf/Meche/Lidle/Armas" Seriously? Aside from Lidle, I'd rather have Ortiz back. How about someone that can actually pitch like Tomo Ohka, Jason Schmidt, Jeff Suppan, or John Thomson? That's even leaving out Mr Zito.

by nihil67 on Sep 21, 2006 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Comments on your comments

1) Tend to agree with you on Hudson. Young will probably be a better bet at leadoff, though he needs to learn how to handle breaking balls better - that much was painfully apparent last night. At the moment, Drew or even Jackson would seem to be better at getting on base than Young.

2) I'd put EdGon above EnGon and Nippert at the moment. While we are talking limited numbers, compare their stats as starters this year, together with their ages:
EdGon (23): 20 IP, 18 H, 3 BB, 12 K, 2.70 ERA, .282 OBA
EnGon (24): 101 IP, 109 H, 34 BB, 60 K, 5.88 ERA, .339 OBA
Nippert (25): 10 IP, 15 H, 7 BB, 9 K, 11.70 ERA, .440 OBA
EdGon is the youngest of them, yet this year has easily been the best starter. At the moment, he would seem to be the best bet for 2007 of these three - be interested to hear why you reckon otherwise. As for Micah Owings, I'm not sure: his stats at Triple-A were good but not awe-inspiring. They keep saying "he knows how to win", which sounds disturbingly like Russ Ortiz before we signed him. :-(

3) Ohka might be worth a look. Suppan = Career ERA+ 101 up to this season, so nothing special. Someone will overpay horribly for Schmidt's services and give him a long-term contract that they will regret. Hopefully, it won't be AZ. It seems likely that we won't be chasing any big free-agent names at all.

by Jim McLennan on Sep 21, 2006 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Edgar

I can't argue with your limited "starter only" stats, but I feel he's the 3rd or 4th best pitcher in the group that has to include Owings. I'm not sure what Nippert's deal has been, but let's see what sprint training brings.

As for Suppan, you're right he's nothing special, but he's better then Wolf, Armas, and Meche.

by nihil67 on Sep 21, 2006 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My Ohka Concern

I deffinatly think that Ohka is going to be a wild card, both in the free agent market and his actual ability to preform here. What i'm concerened about is his agents ... I fear that they will lean towards New York or Seattle, the two towns (3 clubs) that have taken on these Japanese phenoms with high success and a established Japanese pressence (in population and media). Star F*cking goes a long way in the modern era.

"Pepper needs new shorts!"

by npineda on Sep 22, 2006 8:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

From the Viva boards

The word over there is that Mulder has bought a house in AZ and his wife wants to live here. What about the possibility of a cheap incentive-laden contract with Mulder after his surgery-ended season?

Personally I'd like to see someone in the lineup who can hit 30+ homers. I don't like the "trust in Tracy" movement for a guy hitting below .280 with less than 20 homers. He seems like the next Gracie, not the next Gonzo. Granted that's still pretty damn good, but we need someone besides Byrnes hitting 20+ homers and the lack of power is killer in late game situation when you need to be able to put a run up quickly and can't small ball them in. I understand after the Sexson and Glaus debacles, there is fear, but we need to realistically address the lack of power. We will probably get decent power out of Tracy, Quentin, and Jackson, and probably 20+ out of Byrnes as well, but we could potentially get less than 100 out of all 4 combined if it's similar to this year.

With only around 40 Mil put into this lineup (according to your estimates) I think power pitcher (maybe Zito) or even an innings eater in Lilly or Meche, along with a decent power pickup in free agency, I think we'd be poised to win the division.

Carpenter's a great pitcher, but then again, so would Webb against semi-pro teams.

by CardinalsfanAZ on Sep 22, 2006 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tend to feel

HRs are over-rated. Arizona hit 191 of them last year, enough for third-best in the league, and it didn't seem to help us much - the NL West champion Padres, for example, only had 130. However, they scored virtually the same number of runs as us (just twelve less, 696-684), and to me, that's what matters more, not the number of long-balls. If you have one home-run hitter, they'll pitch around him. But if you have six or seven who might knock one out, and who are all adept at getting on base, that's almost impossible to defend against.

And next year, Arizona will have at least four 20-homer guys, in Jackson, Tracy, Byrnes and Quentin. Drew, Hudson, Snyder and Young should be good for 10-15 each. I'd prefer a well-balanced lineup like that, especially if we can convince Eric Byrnes to take a freakin' walk every now and again. ;-) Sure, there are some situations where you need quick runs, but good teams shouldn't find themselves there often to begin with. All we really need is a slugging pinch-hitter: kinda like Tony Clark v.2005. I'd settle for that level of performance in 150 at-bats.

An incentive-laden contract for Mulder would be the way to go, but in another pitching-short market, I suspect there's someone out there dumb enough to give him a lot of cash and maybe even a multi-year contract. As I said somewhere else, I hope it's not us: it's just too risky an investment.

by Jim McLennan on Sep 22, 2006 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nod

It's the feeling on Manny Ramierz and David Ortiz ... would either of them be so fearsome if they weren't batting together? One power guy does not the long ball make, even in our park.

I'd love to see Mulder in the high incentive contract area ... but you see those in the NFL much more then the MLB. Plus, an arbitrator is almost always going to give him more.

"Pepper needs new shorts!"

by npineda on Sep 24, 2006 6:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A look at the free-agent pitchers

Ken Rosenthal is not impressed:

A perfect storm awaits this winter: The industry is awash in revenue, leaving all but a few clubs ready to spend. The demand for pitching, however, far exceeds supply, ensuring that the market will be insane. Loaiza's contract -- like the three-year, $22.5 million deal that righty Kris Benson landed from the Mets in the 2004-05 off-season -- will be a launching point for excess. "This could be the largest infusion of bad contracts and lopsided trades in quite a while," one general manager says. "I would expect there to be more than a few shocking transactions this winter. We will see, but I think it will be ugly."

He then goes on to look at the baker's dozen of free agents who represent the sub-cream of the crop, below the Zito, Schmidts and Mussinas, of this winter's market. Worth a read.

by Jim McLennan on Sep 22, 2006 8:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting...

nothing to do with starters, but I wonder if Houston would bite on an Estrada for Lidge trade? Lidge has had a rough year, no doubt, but I think his problems may all be related to neededing a fresh start somewhere where he didn't give up a huge HR to Pujols.

by nihil67 on Sep 25, 2006 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That would be a real steal

Lidge has blown saves this year but certainly nothing horrifying compared to some of the worst offenders, and his K/9 and BB/9 numbers does not jive with his high ERA. I should know since he's on my fantasy team and is costing me the saves category after getting removed from the closer role :P

by William K on Sep 25, 2006 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd even be willing

to toss in one of Valverde, Vizcaino, or Lyon. It'd be nice to get a steal on our side for once.

by nihil67 on Sep 25, 2006 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was just talking

to someone about Lidge yesterday. I know he has had a rough year but whoever gets him is going to get a steal.

by DiamondbacksWIn on Sep 25, 2006 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2007 team

How they joined the D'Backs (based on Jim's projected roster)

Starters
1B: Jackson - 360K (draft 2003)
2B: Hudson - 3.3M (Glaus trade)
SS: Drew - 340K (draft 2004)
3B: Tracy - 2.75M (draft 2001)
C: Snyder - 360K (draft 2002)
C: Montero - 340K (minor league FA 2001)
RF: Quentin - 340K (draft 2003)
CF: Young - 340K (Vazquez trade)
LF: Byrnes - 3.5M (FA)

Bench
Clark - 1M (FA)
DaVanon - 1.1M (FA)
Hammock - 340K (draft 1998)
Callaspo - 340K (Bulger trade)

Rotation
P1: Webb - 4.5M (draft 2000)
P2: ????
P3: Batista - 5M (Glaus trade)
P4: Hernandez 2.0 - 7M (Mock/Chico trade)
P5: Edgar Gonzalez - 340K (minor league FA 2000)

Bullpen:
Cruz - 700K (Halsey trade)
Valverde - 800K (minor league FA 1997)
Medders - 350K (draft 2001)
Lyon - 1.2M (Schilling trade)
Pena - 340K (minor league FA 2002)
Vizcaino - 2.5M (Vazquez trade)
Slaten - 340K (draft 2000)

More than half (13) of the 24 players were either drafted or signed from Latin America by the D'Backs and paid their dues by progressing through the farm system. While not all their years were spent in Phoenix, some of these kids have been with the D'Backs organization for a while now.
How can D'Backs fans not feel all fuzzy-wuzzy inside to see a 'local' product out there on the field?

by William K on Sep 22, 2006 8:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs