AZ Snakepit: Front Page Posts

Lolback of the week

Jim McLennan — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 22:39:39 -0000

Lolback of the week

Reynolds gets a second life? Or a life at second?

Jim McLennan — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 16:27:53 -0000

This started with Nick Piecoro reporting before the game last night, "They’re taking batting practice downstairs, and over at second base -- taking ground balls from a coach, turning phantom double plays -- is none other than Mark Reynolds... Keep in mind, many in the organization feel that Reynolds might be more than a just an option at second base this season -- some think he could be their 2009 second baseman, if need be. A bigger question might be how Chad Tracy, coming off of knee surgery, handles third base, a position he has only played two times this season."

Said Reynolds previously, "If they want me to I will. It won't affect anything. I feel comfortable over there, I feel comfortable at third base. Whatever they want." However, there's little doubt that, while it will allow the Diamondbacks to put their best possible offense out there, it will be a defensive hit, not only at second, but also at third, where we'll see how Tracy's knee holds up, and additionally at first, since Adam Dunn hasn't played that position regularly since 2005.

Our poll on the topic, after the signing of Dunn, proved a hot topic, with more votes than any other in SnakePit history. 32% of respondents supported this configuration - slightly more (40%) preferred moving Dunn to LF and bring Jackson to 1B, though still with Tracy moving to third and Reynolds becoming second. That would likely screw us up even more defensively, with a downgrade at four separate positions. One alternative I've heard mentioned is simply plugging Upton back in at second-base, buit that seems unlikely at this stage.

Diamondbacks 8, Padres 6: Easy-Peavy

Jim McLennan — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 06:09:33 -0000

Record: 66-60. Pace: 85-77. Change on last season: -5.
Magic number: 35. Playoff odds: 62.4%

I apologize for the typo in the preview to today's game. When I said, "If I were you, I wouldn't blink tonight, or you might miss three innings," that should, of course, have been, "...or you might miss three runs." I apologize for any inconvenience that this may have caused.

Well, the expected pitching duel didn't quite turn up, did it? A pair of starters, both with ERAs under three, combined to allow ten earned runs in eleven innings, on sixteen hits and four walks. The score was 6-4 to Arizona by the end of the second, the Diamondbacks showing remarkable fortitude in coming back after Haren allowed the Padres to leap out to a four-run lead. After a double by Ojeda and a walk to Jackson, Dunn launched his second Adam Bomb in as many games, with a three-run shot that went from zero to the bleachers in about 1.8 seconds.

All of a sudden, Arizona was right back in it, and Snyder's 13th homer of the season, with one out in the second, brought everything right back to square one. Not content with that, however, Dan Haren then drew a walk against Peavy - the last time the Padres ace walked an opposing pitcher was May 6 last year. Drew singled, and both men advanced an extra ninety feet, as the Padres' RF totally muffed the play. Though Ojeda popped out, Jackson then lofted a beautiful bloop to right, scoring both men - and a Win Probability of only 18.7% after the Padres went 4-0 up, had suddenly improved radically, and was now a much more acceptable 72.6%.

After this unexpected extension of batting practice, things settled down, with six zeros being posted between the two starters. Though, to be honest, Haren was still far from his best, with the lead-off man for the Padres reaching in each of the first four inning, and San Diego mastering a total of eleven hits off Dan. The good thing is, he didn't walk anyone in his six innings, and became the first Arizona pitcher to allow so many hits and get a W, since May 27 last year - no prizes for guessing the last man to do it [indeed, the last two!] was Livan Hernandez. Haren was still some way off the worst-ever outing by a winning D-backs pitcher. That belongs to Casey Daigle; in May 2004, he pitched five innings, allowed twelve hits, three walks and seven runs, but we took that one 12-8.

The Padres did get one run back before Haren departed, but Qualls and Peña were extremely solid, both pitching perfect innings, on eleven and fourteen pitches respectively. A couple of extremely valuable insurance runs were plated for our side in the seventh, taking advantage of some more Padres wildness. Three walks loaded the bases, and Mark Reynolds swatted a double down the left-field run, for RBI numbers #84 and #85. With 36 games to go, Special K has already driven in more runs than any Diamondbacks hitter since 2005, when Troy Glaus has 97 and Tony Clark 87. Both of those should fall, as Reynolds is on pace for 112, which would be the best since Gonzo's 2001 figure of 142.

Eight more walks took us to 50 free passes in the eight games since Adam Dunn joined the club. Two more for him - eleven since arriving in total, giving the Donkey a line of .308/.500/.615. Compare that to Mandy's .403/.488/.716, and thus far, it looks like Arizona have picked up a comparable offensive threat. I'm particularly impressed that we have scored fifteen runs this series and taken both games, despite having batted only .220 [13-for-59] and been outhit almost two-to-one by the Padres, at 25-13. Heaven knows what we might do if this team started hitting...

Brandon Lyon was 'unavailable' in the ninth. I think this was perhaps on the basis that his appearance on the mound in a save situation would have resulted in a crowd reaction that made Disco Demolition Night look like a palace tea-party. Instead, Jon Rauch took the mound and threw strikes - despite the best efforts of home-plate umpire Chuck Meriwether to call them otherwise. Sure, Jody 'Snake Killer' Gerut smacked one of them into the right-field bleachers to make it a two-run game. However, that was all the damage done, and we could turn our attention to Chavez Ravine, where the Rockies were coming back from 3-0 down...

[Click to enlarge, in new window]
Master of his domain: Adam Dunn, +22.0%
Honorable mentions: Jackson, +14.2%; Snyder, +10.0%
God-emperor of suck: Dan Haren, -11.7%

Thanks to everyone in the Gameday Thread for their contributions: DbacksSkins, 4 Corners Fan, Zephon, Eric SanInocencio, singaporedbacksfan, kishi, hotclaws, J Up, Muu, Diamondhacks, foulpole, utahdbacksfan, AJforAZ, Azreous, Scrbl, njjohn, SongBird and TwinnerA. That was fun: a lot more so, after we'd clawed our way back from the four-run, first-inning deficit. It's good to see the team showing the fortitude to do that against an opposing ace - something of a contrast to their performance on Sunday, though Oswalt was simply dominating on that day, and few lineups could have withstood his performance.

The Rockies duly completed the comeback, and we have a whole two games of breathing-room at the top of the division now. It seems like forever since we were that far clear, but it's actually only two weeks - the last was the night that the Pirates' Karstens nearly perfectoed us. However, the victory also moves us six games over .500, and it has been a long while since we were that far above parity: June 13th, to be exact. With Brandon Webb going for us tomorrow, as he aims for his nineteenth victory, and we aim for a sweep of the Padres, I am beginning to feel, cautiously, more optimistic about this team than I have for a while - certainly, since they took the first two games of the Dodgers series at the end of July. Still, let's win again tomorrow - I may have mentioned this before, but as long as we keep doing that, we'll be fine.

Gameday Thread, #126: 8/20 vs. Padres

Jim McLennan — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 00:00:10 -0000

Jake Peavy
RHP, 9-8, 2.61

Dan Haren
RHP, 13-6, 2.96

Baseball-Reference.com preview [opens in new window]

Poor Dan Haren. In almost half of his starts (12 of 25), he's got four runs or less of support from the offense. And tonight looks likely to be another case, since in Peavy's two appearances against us this season, we've managed two runs in fourteen innings, on only seven hits, with fifteen strikeouts. No, it's not going to be easy tonight, but in Dan Haren, we send out a pitcher who is certainly capable, on his day - and that's most of the time - of matching Peavy in zeros.

Haren got back on track last time out, after a couple of rocky outings, with eight innings of two-run ball in Coors Field. He has made three starts against the Padres so far in 2008, going seven innings each time and allowing a total of five earned runs in those 21 innings, with seventeen hits, just two walks, and sixteen K's. Between him and Peavy, If I were you, I wouldn't blink tonight, or you might miss three innings.

A win tonight locks the series down and, with Webb going tomorrow against an unheralded rookie, would also give us a great chance of completing the sweep. I'll be about - tonight, I'm supposed to be on the 'puter, working on the program for the PFFF, but last night I was supposed to be doing a lot more than watching Brandon Lyon implode! So we'll see how that works out...

Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency

Jim McLennan — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 21:22:36 -0000

Baseball Prospectus has an interesting article - the bulk is restricted to subscribers, but I feel I can pick out some extracts from that, to shed some light on to our fielding woes this season. Defensive Efficiency is a metric that measures the percentage of balls in play which a defense converts into outs. The higher the percentage, the better your defense. However, that raw figure masks variations between parks: as the article says, "The amount of foul territory, size of the outfield, irregularities in the field's dimensions, altitude, and surface of play can all have an impact on the degree of difficulty when it comes to defending one's home turf."

But just as you can come up with park factors that take into account a stadium's impact on hitters, so you can do so for its impact on fielders. Fenway, Dolphin Stadium, Progressive Field (formerly Jacobs Field), and Coors Field are hardest for fielders, while the Metrodome, Tropicana Field, McAfee Coliseum, and Petco Park are easiest. Arizona's three-year factor is 0.9950, slightly tougher than average. You can use this to come up with an overall figure for the percentage above or below ML average that a team converts into outs, when adjusted for the degree of difficulty provided by their home field. Each 1% is worth about 13 additional runs saved or allowed, which would be more than one win in the standings.

Overall, Arizona's defense is ranked ninth in the majors, having converted 0.59% more balls in play into outs than would be expected for a team playing at Chase. For comparison, top are the Cubs, at +2.60%, and worst are the Reds, all the way down at -4.30%. That figure is the best in the division, by quite some distance - we're the only team better than average, well ahead of the Giants (-0.94%); the rest of the West trails in below them, with the Padres and Rockies tied for worst, at -1.23%. So, despite how it may feel at times, our defense has been better than our rivals at doing what it's supposed to: making outs.

However, it is also important to note that our figure is a significant drop on the +1.19% which we had last season - good enough for fifth overall. That does tie with what we've seen this year: a disappointing regression with the glove by many players, despite then being a year more experienced and at the age where they should not yet be expected to be slowing down. It's difficult to break down the source of the drop, but I do note Mark Reynolds has gone from -6 Fielding Runs Above Average last season, down to -11 this year. The replacement of Carlos Quentin (-1) with Justin Upton (-7) in right, is likely also a contributory factor.

Diamondbacks 7, Padres 6: My, that was...energizing

Jim McLennan — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 06:09:32 -0000

Record: 65-60. Pace: 84-78. Change on last season: -6.
Magic number: 37. Playoff odds: 55.2%.

[Click to enlarge, in new window]
Master of his domain: Tony Peña, +37.7%
Honorable mentions: Dunn, +18.8%; Davis, +13.6%; Young, +10.2%
God-emperor of suck: Brandon Lyon, -36.1%

I'm moving the FanGraph up, since they say a picture is worth a thousand words - and that's true for the above, which illustrates nicely the snooze-fest that was the second-half - up until Brandon Lyon's spectacular meltdown. There were certainly a thousand words uttered in SnakePit Towers during the ninth, in a wide-ranging discussion which included Brandon's parentage, his leisure activities, and a future career, based around the phrase, "D'you want fries with that?" In non-save situations over the past month, the results have been less than impressive: 2.1 innings, resulting in 11 hits, three walks and seven earned runs. That's a good part of why his ERA on July 18 was 2.37; it's now 4.60.

Today, Lyon came in with a comfortable 7-3 lead, but retired one of the six batters he faced, and Melvin had to go to Tony Peña, with the tying run on third and only one out. [I have to say, our Win Probability at that point felt an awful lot lower than the unemotional 62.3% claimed by FanGraphs!] He got Hundley to ground back to him, and calmly threw to Snyder, catching the runner coming home in a rundown. By the time the tag was made, men were on second and third, so the Padres were a bloop away from taking the lead, but Peña got the hitter to fly out to Chris Young, to preserve the victory, and send San Diego to a record of 3-56 when trailing after six innings. It was Tony's first save since May 16th, and I think few will begrudge him the position as Master of his Domain tonight.

That made a winner out of Doug Davis who pitched - and I can hardly believe I am typing these words - a quality start, allowing two runs over six innings. If the mark of a great pitcher is being able to get the victory despite not having his best stuff, i nominate Davis for the Cy Young this year. Because he was frickin' awful early on: unable to find the strike-zone with anything apart from batting-practice fastballs, with virtually all the outs being hard-hit balls that happened to find fielders. The second was particularly wretched, the first four Padres all reaching, to score one run and load the bases with no-one out.

However, all San Diego managed to add on was a sacrifice fly and, as so often, Davis worked through the issues. He ended up producing his best outing of August, giving up seven hits and two walks in six innings, fanning six. He threw 100 pitches - only 58 of them were for strikes. He turned it over to the A-bullpen, where Qualls has a perfect seventh, though Rauch struggled a bit in the eighth, with two hits and a walk, leading to an earned run. The coroner's report which was the ninth has already been sufficiently re-hashed, I feel - but I do think a debate should be opened on whether Lyon remains as closer down the stretch. He shouldn't be fatigued: at 47.2 IP, he's well short of his total last year [74], but the results of late have been far from comforting.

Fortunately, the offense proved just up to the task, breaking out early - for the third time in four games, we sent nine men to the plate in the first inning. Arizona were able to take advantage of wildness from opposing starter Banks, who walked no less than seven in four innings of work. That included four in the first inning, and we scored four times as a result, on RBI singles by Jackson and Snyder, and sacrifice flies sent out there by Reynolds and Burke. The patience at the plate was especially crucial on a night where San Diego outhit Arizona 13-7. It is, certainly, due in part to bad pitching and a small sample size, but we've been averaging six walks per game since the arrival of Adam Dunn - that compares to 3.4 over the 118 before he got here. Dunn himself had two more, for a total of nine in seven games.

He also got his first home in an Arizona jersey, a two-run shot in the fourth to right, even though he clearly didn't get all of the pitch. So he reached safely three times, increasing his OBP for the Diamondbacks to .485. Ojeda, Young and Snyder all followed suit in this department, and Conor Jackson had two hits - that was good to see, as CoJack had been scuffling, having gone 5-for-34 with two RBI in eight appearances, since his last multi-hit game on the 7th. He singled home a run in the seventh, what turned out to be a crucial insurance run, even if we didn't realize it at the time of execution.

An unsurprisingly busy thread, with over 750 comments. I would have participated more, but dinner, a large bag of cookies and sloth kept me in front of the television set [when I should really have been much more productive!] Also present were utahdbacksfan, DbacksSkins, TwinnerA, soco, snakecharmer, Azreous, AZWILDCATS, foulpole, seanprh, 4 Corners Fan, kishi, Scrbl, emilylovesthedbacks, The Main Man, singaporedbacksfan, SongBird, J Up, Muu, hotclaws, pepperdinedevil, Zephon and dbacksbj.

With the Dodgers going down to Colorado, we're back in first place, all by ourselves. I've decided to tempt the baseball gods by posting our Magic Number, which is the number of Arizona wins and/or Los Angeles losses necessary for us to reach the playoffs. If we drop out of first, it will be replaced by our anti-Magic Number, the number of Arizona losses and/or LA wins necessary for us to be eliminated. I'll also post the playoff chances, as worked out at CoolStandings.com, but those sometimes don't get updated until post-recap, so those may be TBA depending on when we play. The current 55.2% figure is the best since August 6.

Poll

Who should close for Arizona down the stretch?

San Diego at Arizona, Aug. 19 2008 OVERFLOW THREAD

DbacksSkins — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 04:17:17 -0000

Dbacks 6, Padres 3, Rauch on the mound, 2 outs and 2 on in the 8th.

Carry on, 'Pitters.

Gameday Thread, #125: 8/19 vs. Padres

Jim McLennan — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 00:00:15 -0000

Josh Banks
RHP, 3-5, 4.37

Doug Davis
LHP, 4-7, 4.79

Baseball-Reference.com preview [opens in new window]

38 games to go, and the old adage that the baseball season is a marathon not a sprint, is becoming increasingly less applicable. It's getting to the stage where things are simple enough: whoever wins the most games over the next six weeks, out of ourselves and the Dodgers, will get into the playoffs. The other stays home in October. Los Angeles have the edge in the schedule - they have nine games against the Padres and three versus Washington, twelve contests against sub-.400 opposition. We have only six facing the Padres, so have to take advantage of them, starting tonight.

Doug Davis has, however, basically sucked after being kept out there by Bob Melvin for 124 pitches as he pursued a perfect game - and then for an additional five batters beyond that point. In three starts, he has thrown a mere 11 innings and allowed 21 hits, eight walks and 15 earned runs. Now, the near-perfecto was more of an aberration than anything, we need a return to his form of the first half, where he had a 3.80 ERA, not the 7.22 posted in the second-half. He is facing the Padres - victims of his last good outing - but if he struggles again, then I imagine some consideration needs to be given to DL'ing him, with Max Scherzer probably getting the call. A quick hook there is imperative, given the short nature of the pennant chase; it may simply be that Davis has run out of steam, the rehab from his surgery finally taking its toll after 100 innings.

Banks also struggled in his last start, with his control being particularly lacking - he walked six Milwaukee batters in 4.1 innings. That was a bit of an aberration, but we did also beat him at Chase in July, squeaking out a 3-2 win, in which he allowed all three runs in six innings. Upton and Reynolds homered off him that night. The Padres offense has struggled of late, scoring three or less in six of the last eight games, though the overall average is skewed by the other two games, in Colorado, where they scored 24 runs. One stunning stat: the Padres are 3-55 when trailing after six innings, so if we're leading then... Arizona have been pretty solid offensively since the arrival of Dunn: Sunday's shut-out was the first time in ten games they've been held to less than four runs.

Should be about for most of this series, and I'm thinking we should look to take two out of three, at least. Thursday, with Webb on the mound, looks like a cert, but today is much less certain. Tomorrow, with Haren facing Peavy, should be an excellent pitching match-up, and could go either way too. With Los Angeles facing Colorado, it'd be nice to get back into the lead, but the main thing is to take care of our own business and let the Dodgers worry about themselves.

Batting Stance Guy does the Diamondbacks

Jim McLennan — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 20:09:39 -0000

Batting Stance Guy does the Diamondbacks

The 2008 Scouting Report, By The Fans, For The Fans

tangotiger — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 18:22:34 -0000

The 2008 Scouting Report, By The Fans, For The Fans

For the sixth year in a row, I am once again asking for hardcore baseball fans to participate in the annual Scouting Report project, in which you evaluate the fielding characteristics of players on your team. If you have a few minutes, please drop by and evaluate your team.

Dodgers Acquire Greg Maddux

snakecharmer — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 00:47:45 -0000

Dodgers Acquire Greg Maddux

Sports Center just reported the acquisition by the Dodgers of Maddux. It's not official yet.... but if this is true, we might be in a spot of trouble.

[Updated with ESPN story link]

AZ SnakePit Fantasy Baseball: Week 20

Jim McLennan — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 21:21:53 -0000

Week 20 Results

AZ SnakePit 1. Douchebaggery 9
Snake's playoff hopes took a hammering with this brutal loss, Nathan's two saves being their only point. They didn't play that badly, but Douche got two Wins and 18 K's from Vazquez as well as two Wins by Marcum - Youkilis (9 R, 3 HR, 8 RBI) led their offense.

dbacktom 1. Blonde Streaks 7
tom plunged from third to sixth after this shocking defeat, where Bush's nine K's led t their only victoty. Blonde's ERA was 1.78, with Valverde notching three saves; they also got ten Runs from Pedroia and eight RBI by Garko. Wins and SB both ended tied for the week.

The Fighting Amish 9, Wimboes Barmy Army 1
Amish are rounding into form nicely, crushing Wimboes behind two Wins and 13 K's from Santana. and 17 K's by Lincecum. Pena had four homers and Markakis a 10 R, 9 RBI week. Wimb got a W and 10 K from Mussine, but their only point came in BA, where they hit .306.

Tucson Myth 1, Arizona Muugens 7
Muugens piled up 59 K's on the week: four pitchers had 10+, led by Sanchez with 14. Huff's three-homer, nine RBI performance helped them score big on offense too, and Myth's sole score came in BA, as they batted over .300. Neither team managed an SB and Saves ended tied.

7-2 Offsuiters 8, Desert Storm BC 2
7-2 took a big step towards the post-season, Berkman driving in ten runs for them at the plate. They also posted a 2.54 ERA, Martinez + Kuroda getting a W and 7 K's each. Storm struggled, but got two saves from Lidge and hit .311 on the week, Ramirez batting .533.

Adriano Rosario's 6, Desert Dingleberries 4
Ethier (Adriano) homered four times, but Kinsler (three HR, six RBI) gave Dingle a slight edge at the plate. However, Adriano dominated pitching, with a W and 13 K's by Kazmir. Kershaw (Dingle) fanned 14 and while both pitched well - ERAs of 2.50 and 2.59 - Adriano were just a little better.

Crazy VIII's 7, Ignatius J. Rallies 2
Both sides batted over .300, with VIII posting a figure of .313:: Ibanez scored seven, while he and Lowrie hit .500 or better, as did Teixeira for Rallies. On the mound, a W and 14 K's for VIII from Danks proved crucial as they scored four points, and cruised to overall victory.

Kapsaicin Kids 4, GregSchulteOverdrive 6
Greg maintained their playoff push, with fourteen homers and 50 RBI - Mora had three HR and drove in 13. Kids hit a league-best .362 and got a W, two SV and 7 K from Broxton, but Greg had two victories out of Volquez, and their staff also had a league-best 1.84 ERA.

Shenanigans 2.0 2. warlords 6
war continued to cruise towards a top seeding, despite only three Homers, 17 Runs and onw Win. They did get ten RBI from Ramirez - almost half their total - and Reyes stole three bases. Shen got two Wins and 14 K's from Oswalt, and managed a split of the pitching points.

last place 2, SHUperMen 5
last ran up 41 runs - Roberts had eight - but that was a rare victory, as SHU generally had the edge. Neither team managed a save, while K and HR also finished even. Maine (SHU) was the best pitcher, with a W and six K's, A-Rod (last) had two HR and seven RBI.

Standings

Rank	Team	W-L-T	Pct	GB	Last Week	Waiver	Moves
1.	warlords	112-69-19	.608	-	6-2-2	8	14
2.	7-2 Offsuiters	101-73-26	.570	7.5	8-2-0	13	11
3.	Adriano Rosario's	104-83-13	.553	11	6-4-0	20	51
4.	The Fighting Amish	103-83-14	.550	11.5	9-1-0	16	56
5.	GregSchulteOverdrive	101-82-17	.548	12	6-4-0	7	30
6.	dbacktom	99-86-15	.533	15	1-7-2	14	14
7.	Desert Dingleberries	95-89-16	.515	18.5	4-6-0	11	22
8.	Douchebaggery	92-88-20	.510	19.5	9-1-0	19	24
9.	Desert Storm BC	91-88-21	.508	20	2-8-0	10	10
10.	AZ SnakePit	93-92-15	.503	21	1-9-0	9	18
11.	Crazy VIII's	97-97-6	.500	21.5	7-2-1	18	67
12.	Ignatius J. Rallies	89-94-17	.488	24	2-7-1	17	26
13.	Wimboes Barmy Army	90-95-15	.488	24	1-9-0	5	28
14.	Arizona Muugens	86-92-22	.485	24.5	7-1-2	6	17
15.	Shenanigans 2.0	89-96-15	.483	25	2-6-2	1	6
16.	Kapsaicin Kids	88-100-12	.470	27.5	4-6-0	12	23
17.	Blonde Streaks	82-101-17	.453	31	7-1-2	3	15
18.	SHUperMen	82-107-11	.438	34	5-2-3	4	4
19.	Tucson Myth	79-105-16	.435	34.5	1-7-2	2	-
20.	last place	67-120-13	.368	48	2-5-3	15	40

Week 21 Games

AZ SnakePit vs. dbacktom
Douchebaggery vs. SHUperMen
The Fighting Amish vs. Blonde Streaks
Tucson Myth vs. Wimboes Barmy Army
7-2 Offsuiters vs. Arizona Muugens
Adriano Rosario's vs. Desert Storm BC
Crazy VIII's vs. Desert Dingleberries
Kapsaicin Kids vs. Ignatius J. Rallies
Shenanigans 2.0 vs. GregSchulteOverdrive
last place vs. warlords

With just two regular-season weeks to go, no-one has yet clinched a playoff spot, and only one team is mathematically eliminated. That said, some managers will be more relaxed than others, and Adriano Rosario's vs Desert Storm pits two teams who still have a lot to play for. Both have struggled a bit in recent weeks, and this will be a chance for one or other to right the ship and head towards the post-season. Rosario's hit well; with Braun and Hamilton combining for 59 HR and 200 RBI, while Storm will rely heavily on the bat of Dye.

Random Off-Day Thread

Jim McLennan — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 15:23:43 -0000

The usual opportunity to randomly ramble about whatever you want. Topics may include, but are certainly not limited to:

How excited you are about SnakePitFest on Saturday? Are you dressing up, 80's style?
The ongoing Olympics. Do you think anyone will ever break Phelps' record of eight gold medals?
Anyone see Tropic Thunder this weekend? Or any other flick?

Diamondbacks 0, Astros 3: "Lead? Hardly!" -- Oswalt

Jim McLennan — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 02:36:17 -0000

Record: 64-60. Pace: 84-78. Change on last season: -7

Just our luck to meet Roy Oswalt on the day he decides to revert back to being among the most dominant pitchers of the past five years; today was his 80th win since the start of 2004, which ties him with Johan Santana [Webb, in case you're wondering, is fourth on 73, three back of Carlos Zambrano]. He one-hit the Diamondbacks over eight thoroughly dominant innings, and while he could likely have completed the shutout himself, then gave way to former Arizona closer, Jose Valverde, whom came in for the ninth and got the save.

I can't really complain about this one: it was one of those days where you simply meet an irresistible force - it's not as if we can expect to score eleven or twelve runs every game. All the offensive outpouring that we had on Friday and Saturday seemed a very long way ago, with Oswalt painting the corners like Rembrandt, flummoxing the Diamondbacks with everything from low-90's heat, to mid-60's curveballs. He faced just one batter over the minimum, and averaged four balls per inning out of the strike-zone. Looking at him today, you had to wonder how the hell this was only his eleventh win in 24 starts.

Only Stephen Drew and Chris Snyder reached base all afternoon. Snyder was the first base-runner, walking to lead off the third inning. Johnson sacrificed him to second with one out, and Drew [who'd walked to lead off the game, before being lined off first by Tracy] then squeezed a single through the infield. Chip Hale enthusiastically waved Snyder around third, despite the shallowness of the ball and a bad jump off second. Even a crap throw from Pence, which sailed some way up the line, proved more than good enough to get Snyder gunned down at the plate, with relative ease. I've lost count of how many outs we've made on the base-paths this year, and how many runners have been gunned down at home, courtesy of Hale and the much-vaunted "aggressive base-running."

Mark Grace was going on afterwards, about how it was a good decision. Er, no. In a tied game, perhaps - but we were already three runs behind at that point, and base-runners were clearly a precious commodity. Sending the slowest runner on the roster home was a suicidal move: even in the best possible scenario, if he'd made it, we'd still only have had the tying run at the plate - exactly the same as if Snyder had been held at third. Instead of having the red-hot Chris Young up [10-for-23 with eight RBI in the past week], representing that tying run, the rally was snuffed out and AZ was still three down. The next seventeen Diamondbacks' hitters were retired in order, and the only other time we got a runner into scoring position was on fielders' indifference in the ninth, after Drew singled off Valverde.

Randy Johnson pitched well, outside of one mistake to Wigginton, who promptly took advantage of that, along with the short distance to the left-field bleachers. Unfortunately, there were two men on base at that point, courtesy of the Big Unit's only free pass of the afternoon, and a seeing-eye squib from Tejada, that made it through the left side of the infield. It soon became clear that those three runs were going to prove monumentally tough for the visitors to pull back. Even though Johnson righted the ship and posted six zeroes after that, win #295 eluded him - he now needs to get the victory in five of seven remaining starts if he's going to make it to three hundred this season. He scattered eight hits and that solitary walk over seven innings, striking out five. Qualls pitched a scoreless eighth.

[Click to enlarge, in new window]
Master of his domain: Chris Snyder, +1.7%
God-emperor of suck: Chris Young, -9.3%

Not much positive to come out of the Fangraph today, as you can tell from the huge plus value posted by Snyder - Qualls and Drew, at +0.7% each, were the only other Diamondbacks to reach anything above zero. Young just pipped Johnson (-9.2%) for the title at the other end of the scale. The first inning deficit pretty much took all the steam out of the Gameday Thread too, with it struggling to pass two hundred, as just about everyone found better things to do. Present were Azreous, soco, britdback, hotclaws, Wimb, kishi, srdmad, snakecharmer, TwinnerA, 4 Corners Fan, foulpole, njjohn, emilylovesthedbacks, Diamondhacks and AZWILDCATS.

All told, a 4-2 road trip is not bad, but the Dodgers have kept right in step with us - they managed to stave off a furious, four-run, ninth-inning comeback by the Brewers, so we are back to being tied with them ONCE again. After the off-day on Monday, the Diamondbacks now head back home to face San Diego for three games at Chase, and then the Marlins come to town over the weekend. Los Angeles hit the road, also after an off-day Monday, to take on the Rockies and the Phillies. While it'd be nice for these teams to give Arizona some help, the most important thing is for the Diamondbacks to keep winning their own games. Do that, and we'll be fine.

Pitching rotation the rest of the way

Jim McLennan — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 17:54:38 -0000

Since it looks official that we'll be aiming to use our front starters as much as possible down the stretch, with Petit being skipped whenever necessary, I thought we should take a look at the anticipated match-ups for the series until the end of the season. This is, obviously, provisional, and any corrections or amendments are welcome.

August 18, Off-day
August 19-21, vs Padres: Davis, Haren, Webb
August 22-24, vs Marlins: Johnson, Petit, Davis [Petit is SnakePitFest!]
August 25-27, @ Padres: Haren, Webb, Johnson
August 28, Off-day
August 29-31, vs Dodgers: Davis, Haren, Webb
September 1-3, vs. Cardinals: Johnson, Petit, Davis
September 4: Off-day
September 5-7, @ Dodgers: Haren, Webb, Johnson

Up to this point, it seems fairly locked in. Beyond this, it gets a bit more speculative. In the next series, for example, they could insert Petit at any point if necessary. But my best guess would be.
September 8-10, @ Giants: Davis, Petit, Haren
September 11: Off-day
September 12-14, vs. Cincinnati: Webb, Johnson, Davis
September 15-18, vs. Giants: Petit, Haren, Webb, Johnson
September 19-21, @ Rockies: Davis, Petit, Haren
September 22-25, @ Cardinals: Webb, Johnson, Davis, Petit
September 26-28, Rockies: Haren, Webb, Johnson

The divisional playoffs begin October 1, so this would also set up Haren to pitch Game 1, and Webb Game 2. Of course, if we've clinched a post-season spot earlier, than any or all of the final series could see us resting our starters.

Lolback of the week - slightly delayed! - in honor of our new slugger

Jim McLennan — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 17:30:22 -0000

Lolback of the week - slightly delayed! - in honor of our new slugger

Gameday Thread, #124: 8/17 vs. Astros

Jim McLennan — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 16:00:07 -0000

Randy Johnson
RHP, 10-8, 4.18

Roy Oswalt
RHP,10-8, 4.52

Baseball-Reference.com preview [opens in new window]

Having crushed the Astros in the first two games of the series, we already have the series in the bag, and have also wrapped up a winning road-trip with a 4-1 record so far. This morning, we go for the sweep, and though Oswalt has the most wins on the Houston roster, our offense has been all but unstoppable so far. This is not quite the same Oswalt who won more games in the majors than anyone bar Johan Santana, between 2004 and 2007. This year, he has been eminently hittable, with batters at a surprisingly-high figure of .292 against him. He still doesn't walk many people: only 37 in 141.1 innings but, given that over his entire career, he has allowed less than one hit per inning, a WHIP of 1.429 is very high.

Randy Johnson has the lowest ERA of any starter in baseball since the All-Star break, with just four earned runs in 33.1 innings, for an overall figure of 1.08. His K:BB ratio over those five starts is an insane 26:2, and opponents' OBP is a miniscule ,238. If he keeps that up, he might just get the six wins he needs to reach 300. It was announced that our front four starters will be going on regular i.e. four days' rest as far as possible the rest of the season. I'll knock something up looking at what exactly that means for match-ups - but if I'm right, it gives the Big Unit nine more starts, including tomorrow - and I think it means Johnson will also take the mound for the last game of the season. I guess the ultimate would be if he had 299 wins and we needed the victory to clinch a play-off spot. I think, overall, I'd rather wrap things up sooner than that!

This Gameday Thread is coming to you courtesy of the 'Schedule for Publish' button in SB Nation v2.1 - hey, you surely don't expect me to get up at 9am on Sunday, do you? However, Mrs. SnakePit has to go buy the makings of film festival trophies this morning, so all things being equal, I should be just about surfaced and conscious in time for first pitch. With a lead in the division again, thanks to the Dodgers losing in extra innings last night, we will hopefully extend our winning streak and put more pressure on Los Angeles.

Diamondbacks 11, Astros 5: SuperMon Gets Miggy With It

Jim McLennan — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 04:44:01 -0000

Record: 64-59. Pace: 84-78. Change on last season: -6

The Diamondbacks pounded the Astros once again, using two grand slams, by Chris Young and Miguel Montero to cruise to another easy victory. It's the first time the team have scored 10+ runs in back-to-back road games for over eight years: the last time, coincidentally, was also in Houston, back in July 2000, when they won 10-4 and 12-9.

Tonight's game opened in much the same way as yesterday's, with our starting pitcher once again getting to bat before he took the mound. However, Petit was the beneficiary of even more run support, as the Diamondbacks scored five runs in the first - they've now out-scored the opposition 86-58 over the opening frame [it's not quite their best inning: in the fifth, the split is 89-51 in our favor. The ninth is our Achilles' heel; there, we've been outscored 56-30]. And, once again, Arizona were helped by wildness from the opposing starter: Backe walked three of the nine batters he faced, two of them coming round to score.

The big blow was courtesy of Miguel Montero, who came up with the bases loaded and two men out, and Arizona already one run ahead, thanks to an RBI single from Dunn. After working the count to 3-1, our catcher hit his second home-run of the year to right-field, for the first grand-slam of his career. It was also only the second of the year for the Diamondbacks, the other being by Eric Byrnes [remember him?] in Atlanta on May 25. Despite having one long-ball in his first 132 at-bats, Montero's second and third came in consecutive plate-appearances - he followed his salami with a smaller slice of power, scoring our next run with another homer, this time a solo shot: in the fourth.

Arizona continued to pull away, as Reynolds made the score 7-1, with his 82nd RBI of the season. Any faint chance the Astros had of coming back, was then removed when Chris Young came up with the bases loaded in the sixth - I note that Young was batting #2 against a right-handed starter... Montero had just missed going yard for the third time, settling for a double. CY promptly unloaded the bags, taking advantage of the short porch in left for his seventeenth homer of the year, and giving Arizona the first two slam game in franchise history. We're also the first National League team to double-dip our bats in El Salsa Grande, since the New York Mets on July 16, 2006 [they did it twice in the same inning, part of an eleven-run sixth!]

The team pounded out twelve hits - as noted previously, we've reached double figures there in every game since the arrival of our new slugger, and we added eight walks too. Dunn himself led the way, getting on base five times in five plate-appearances, with two hits and three walks. He may not be as flashy as Manny - we're still awaiting his first homer in an Arizona uniform - but we will happily settle for an on-base percentage of .520, based on Dunn going 6-for-18 with seven walks thus far. Montero and Young had three hits apiece, while Chris Burke continued his renaissance, extending his hitting streak to a season-high four games, along with two walks. The only downside was the end of Stephen Drew's streak at seventeen games, though even he walked twice.

Meanwhile, Yusmeiro Petit was outperforming most expectations, restricting Houston to two runs in seven innings on four hits and a walk, with five strikeouts. Some discussion on the Gameday Thread as to whether he may end up in the rotation next season, Certainly, his five starts this season have generally been very solid and effective outings - here's his combined line to date:
Petit: 28 IP, 18 H, 9 R, 9 ER, 6 BB, 19 K, 2.89 ERA
While the usual small sample-size warnings apply, he's doing a better job of keeping the ball in the park [three homers] and simply allowing fewer base-runners. At the very worst, it seems he'll be a good sixth starter to have tucked away, either in the bullpen or down in Tucson next season.

The Astros did restore some respectability to the score late on in the game. They got their second run off Petit in the seventh, and Tony Pena then pitched a scoreless eighth. However, Leo Rosales allowed three hits to the first three batters he faced, and all of them came round to score, making the final score 11-5. Still, having outscored the Astros 23-7 over the first two games of the series, we have to feel very, very good about the way the offense has been hitting of late. Now, if the Damn Dodgers would stop winning for a bit, that'd be helpful. :-)

[Click to enlarge, in new window]
Master of his domain: Miguel Montero, +29.5%
Honorable mention: Yusmeiro Petit, +11.6%
God-emperor of suck: Chad Tracy, -7.1%

In the time since the last sentence, JJ Hardy has uncorked a two-run homer, to give the Brewers a 3-2 lead in Los Angeles. However, we've seen the Dodgers come back late before, so I'm not counting this one until it's over. Over 800 comments in the Gameday Threads tonight; another fun time, with conversation that occasionally sailed off-topic [sodas? Sir David Attenborough? Marathon runners' belly-buttons?], yet was no less entertaining for it. Present were ZonaBacks10, DbacksSkins, soco, emilylovesthedbacks, Muu, 4 Corners Fan, unnamedDBacksfan, njjohn [who gets credit for the 'SuperMon' label], DiamondbacksWIn, Zephon, foulpole, TwinnerA, hotclaws, Wimb, kishi, Turambar, Scrbl, AZWILDCATS, Azreous and BleedingSedonaRed.

So, just hanging round now, waiting for the Dodgers game to finish. Oh, if you want to hear my dulcet tones, I was interviewed on Baseball Digest Daily Live today. You can check it out, through t heir website - I'm on the most recent show, dated August 16th: I enjoyed the experience - it was nice to rant to someone who hadn't heard me complain about the Quentin trade for the past four months. And, with that, the Dodgers have tied it up in the ninth, and the game is going into extras. No idea how long that might go on, so I'll post this now. 11am first pitch tomorrow, with Johnson facing Oswalt as we go for the sweep.

Diamondbacks V. Astros II: Overflow Bloodbath

soco — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 01:03:03 -0000

Getting a pitching change, with our boys in Red ahead 11-1 and Miggy and CY leading charge. Yeah, I guess that's pretty good. Let's lock this down!

Gameday Thread, #123: 8/16 vs. Astros

Jim McLennan — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 22:14:36 -0000

Yusmeiro Petit
RHP, 1-3, 3.12

Brandon Backe
RHP, 7-11, 5.14

Baseball-Reference.com preview [opens in new window]

Here we go again. Another game where the Diamondbacks want to post a win, to put pressure on the Dodgers who are playing later. There is a good omen: in the post today, we got a box from Fox Sports Arizona containing a baseball, autographed by Grace and Sutton, which we'd won in the Vans Chevrolet contest. Of course, we'd rather have won the car, but we will happily settle for that, and will add it to the Diamondbacks shrine in the dining-room.

Feel a little less confident tonight, with the Petit Unit on the mound for this one. He hasn't pitched badly, but mostly due to Melvin having a quick hook with him, has lasted exactly five innings in each of his past three starts. Overall, in four starts this season, his ERA is 3.00, which is not bad at all. With the likely departure of Owings during the off-season, it's going to be interesting next year to see how that affects Petit's role. For the rest of this season, expect his spot to be skipped wherever necessary, however.

Backe has been "up and down," to put it mildly. His last start saw him deliver seven innings of one-run ball; however, the one before that was the worst 2008 start by a pitcher in the National League, as the Cubs scored eleven off him in just 3.1 innings. Walks may be an issue, too - hopefully as much as for Wild Wandy yesterday. In four games and 21.1 innings, Backe has walked 15 batters. Adam Dunn might not be looking forward to this one, having gone 0-for-12 with six K's in his previous encounters; no-one else has more than four at-bats against Backe.

Back to The Sets tonight, for Bohemian Nights, a cabaret show that we have great difficulty not referring to as Bohemian Rhapsody. Will probably be heading down there around first-pitch, so might not be about for the first couple of innings. Still, the team seemed to do very well while we were on the road yesterday: I am hoping that the offense will continue to hit, and we'll get another win. Maybe Chris Burke will hit another homer? Hey, let's not get too carried away... :-)

AZ Snakepit: Front Page Posts

Lolback of the week

Reynolds gets a second life? Or a life at second?

Diamondbacks 8, Padres 6: Easy-Peavy

Gameday Thread, #126: 8/20 vs. Padres

Jake PeavyRHP, 9-8, 2.61

Dan HarenRHP, 13-6, 2.96

Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency

Diamondbacks 7, Padres 6: My, that was...energizing

Who should close for Arizona down the stretch?

San Diego at Arizona, Aug. 19 2008 OVERFLOW THREAD

Gameday Thread, #125: 8/19 vs. Padres

Josh BanksRHP, 3-5, 4.37

Doug DavisLHP, 4-7, 4.79

Batting Stance Guy does the Diamondbacks

Batting Stance Guy does the Diamondbacks

The 2008 Scouting Report, By The Fans, For The Fans

The 2008 Scouting Report, By The Fans, For The Fans

Dodgers Acquire Greg Maddux

Dodgers Acquire Greg Maddux

AZ SnakePit Fantasy Baseball: Week 20

Random Off-Day Thread

Diamondbacks 0, Astros 3: "Lead? Hardly!" -- Oswalt

Pitching rotation the rest of the way

Lolback of the week - slightly delayed! - in honor of our new slugger

Gameday Thread, #124: 8/17 vs. Astros

Randy JohnsonRHP, 10-8, 4.18

Roy OswaltRHP,10-8, 4.52

Diamondbacks 11, Astros 5: SuperMon Gets Miggy With It

Diamondbacks V. Astros II: Overflow Bloodbath

Gameday Thread, #123: 8/16 vs. Astros

Yusmeiro PetitRHP, 1-3, 3.12

Brandon BackeRHP, 7-11, 5.14

Jake Peavy
RHP, 9-8, 2.61

Dan Haren
RHP, 13-6, 2.96

Josh Banks
RHP, 3-5, 4.37

Doug Davis
LHP, 4-7, 4.79

Randy Johnson
RHP, 10-8, 4.18

Roy Oswalt
RHP,10-8, 4.52

Yusmeiro Petit
RHP, 1-3, 3.12

Brandon Backe
RHP, 7-11, 5.14