FanPost

Grading the Arizona Diamondbacks' Roster's Trade Value

With ten days left before the (non-waiver) trade deadline, the largest question remaining on this otherwise completely failed 2016 season is: Are the Arizona Diamondbacks Sellers? I think that in most situations of this magnitude where high hopes have been met with dismal failure, the simple answer is Yes. The season is a total loss, there does not appear to be any chance of making a playoff run of any extent, and management is going to have to seriously re-evaluate themselves, their plan, the coaches, as well as the roster, as soon as the season is over – if not before.

But this time, for Arizona, is the answer to a quicker turnaround to be sellers at the trade deadline? Do the Diamondbacks have the pieces to trade off that could bring in enough of a return to bolster either the present or the future? The question of who holds the most trade value is obvious. But would trading a player of Paul Goldschmidt’s calaber give the Diamondbacks anything even close to his current value in either statistical and intrinsic value?

To answer these questions, let’s look at the many possible trade pieces on the roster (in ascending order):

Position Players

Michael Bourn (D) – With his age and his inconsistency, if a team in contention actually wanted Bourn to bolster outfield depth, his return would be nothing more than a very low-level, mediocre prospect, if not simply, cash considerations.

Wellington Castillo (D+) – Wellington Castillo is hard not to love, even though he is hard to see being the catcher of the future. While he has shown flashes of offensive prowess, he does not appear to know how to adjust to how opposing pitchers have adjusted to him, and likely would not garner very much, if anything of substance, in return.

Yasmany Tomas (C-) – For all intents and purposes Tomas has been a bust. Fortunately at the moment his salary is reasonable, but within two years it will be over $13 million and "ain’t nobody got time for that." If a big spending AL East team is willing to take Tomas as a DH, the Diamondbacks will get nothing of serious value in return unless Arizona wants to eat some of that contract – which might be inevitable regardless.

Nick Ahmed (C) – I do believe that a pennant chasing team would take a flyer on Ahmed as a defensive replacement. His age, plus the fact that he cannot really be this bad at the plate, makes any potential return mediocre, though that might be a best case scenario.

Brandon Drury (B-) – Drury has shown flashes of legitimate Major League talent, both with his bat and his glove. However, as he has not had enough time to prove himself on a day to day basis, and his ceiling does not appear to be anything more than a possible future injury replacement All-Star if the stars align, Arizona probably wouldn’t get anything back that wouldn’t be of relative talent to him.

AJ Pollock (B-) – Don’t get me wrong, I love Pollock, but I was one of those nay-sayers who feared going into this season (before the injury) that last year may have been a flash in the pan. That being said, he cannot be moved right now regardless, but in the offseason, 2015’s numbers may garner an okay piece in return.

David Peralta (B) – I fear that my grade for David Peralta may be inflated due to my affinity for him as a Diamondback, but when healthy, he does bat for average and provide decent power numbers which can protect anyone’s best batters in the lineup. Moving him could potentially offer something good in return.

Jean Segura (B+) – Jean Segura’s age and turnaround season in 2016 would likely provide a good yield, especially if packaged with other pieces. Should they want to move him for prospects, they could receive a player or two who would likely be Major League ready within a couple of years.

Jake Lamb (A-) – Jake Lamb is to the Diamondbacks as Devin Booker is to the Phoenix Suns. Would you trade him? No. But if you did, would you get good return? Yes. Is his potential stardom worth moving on this quickly unless somehow he can be packaged into a Cy Young Ace pitcher? No/Yes.

Paul Goldschmidt (A+) – Goldy has to be mentioned because what they could get for him on the trade market would be outstanding. Knowing that his contract is team friendly for a few more years, plus his asking price when he has to re-sign might be too rich for their blood (although Zach Grienke is living proof that the team may be willing to spend) his trade could potentially garner four or five solid prospects, of which two or three would be major league ready very soon if not already.

*Side note: The Diamondbacks did agree to a trade with the Seattle Mariners and Justin Upton in principal that originally looked like a steal for Arizona. However, hindsight is 20/20 and that return may not have been nearly as good in reality as it looked on paper.

Pitchers

Shelby Miller (D-) – This grade is not only predicated on Miller’s 2016 regular season statistics, but also on the fact that the Diamondbacks could never receive in return the type of potential talent on paper as they shipped off to get him. So even if the Diamondbacks happened to get back a team’s recent first round pick, they would never get the number one overall pick, crushing any chance at a relative return. If Miller is to be traded before his contract runs out, he will have to come back with a vengeance, in which case you would hope that the team would actually want to keep him for a post-season run (although obviously I am not talking about the 2016 season).

Tyler Clippard (C-) – Knowing what the Diamondbacks got for Brad Ziegler seriously skews the possible return that the Diamondbacks could get for a relief pitcher. I do think though that Clippard’s consistency this season would garner Arizona a return similar to what they got for Ziegs, which right now isn’t much, and in the future might not be anything.

Daniel Hudson (C) – Like Tyler Clippard, a trade involving Huddy would likely be very similar to what Arizona got for Ziegler. Being that he is a free agent after this season, and he has had a terrible July so far, the Diamondbacks might actually receive much less than what they got for their former closer.

Robbie Ray (C+) – A lack of consistency is the single-most detrimental killer to Robbie’s trade value. However, some team may look at his attributes and believe that they could turn him into a solid number two or three with the right pitching coach. While that does not mean that the Diamondbacks could milk a team for all they’ve got, I do think that his return could be similar, albeit less, than what they could get for Corbin, if the bidding lines up right for Arizona.

Archie Bradley (B-) – I place Archie in the same range as Ray and Corbin, with him sandwiched right in the middle. He is still young, and has a lot of life left in his arm. Plus, the farther away he gets from his facial injury, the better chance he has at becoming what we all hoped he would become. While he may never be the Ace that he was touted to possibly be, he is not bad, and a starting pitcher with his potential could net a package of a couple of highly-rated, low-to-mid-level prospects whose time away from the Majors may not be that far away.

Patrick Corbin (B) – Corbin is having a really tough season, but with his age and his initial great run in his post-surgery return last season, I believe his trade value would still remain decently high. If he was 7-3 with a 4.00 ERA right now would they get more? Of course. But also remember, his statistics outside of Phoenix this season are fantastic. So a team could be baited into believing that he will definitely pitch better for them outside of Chase Field, garnering a Solid return for a player who was Arizona’s Ace, just one season ago.

Zach Grienke (B+) – On talent alone, Grienke would net a similar return to Goldy, if not more. However, no team in its right mind would offer a huge package and take on his entire contract. If traded, the Diamondbacks would have to eat a large chunk of his salary to maximize another team’s offer, and while that sets his trade value with a decent grade, the fact that Arizona would likely have to eat tens of millions of dollars in salary as part of the trade alone torpedoes any chance at a higher grade.

IN SUMMATION:

If you look at these ratings (and at least relatively agree) I do think that the Diamondbacks are stuck between a rock and a hard spot: If they do not trade anyone special, there is no guarantee that the core players remain healthy next season, and the roster plays to its potential. If they trade some of the bigger pieces – like Paul Goldschmidt – and completely start the rebuild now, they are accepting that they are nowhere near where they thought they were, and this season – and last offseason – were a complete waste of time and resources.

If the Diamondbacks brass is willing to spend this coming offseason (WISELY!) on depth and improvements in the outfield, shortstop, and the pitching staff – outside of Grienke – then holding onto a core of main pieces including Grienke, Goldschmidt, Lamb, Peralta, and Pollock, may allow the team to compete in 2017. But unless players like Corbin, Ray, De La Rosa, Drury, and Peralta can stay healthy and find a way to be consistent, the 2017 Arizona Diamondbacks may look very similar to the way they look this year: Very top heavy with elite talent, and very few if any significant role players that help to round out a complete roster.

So, tell me what you think? Are my possible trade ratings accurate? Do I over-value or under-value anybody on the roster in terms of the type of talent that they could receive in return for one of their players?

Let me know in the comments below!