FanPost

Injury Risk for Potential Diamondback Starting Pitchers

THREE FACTORS show risk of injury. They are easily measured.

A. Year-After Effect (Verducci rule). When a pitcher increased his innings pitched by 30 innings or more, the following year he had an increased risk of injury.

B. Workload hurdles (Wil Carroll). When a pitcher exceeded each hurdle, the following year he had an increased risk of injury. The hurdles are 130 innings, 160 innings, 190 innings, and 220 innings.

C. Injury Nexus (Nate Silver and Wil Carroll). When a player reaches age 24, his injury rate goes down.

Based on the innings pitched in 2013/2014 and player age, I grouped potential Diamondback starting pitchers into three risk groups: High, Medium, and Low.

HIGH RISK. Josh Collmenter and Vidal Nuno. Both exceeded the 160 innings workload hurdle in 2014, and both increased their innings pitched by much more than 30 innings.

Patrick Corbin was injured when he both exceeded the 190 innings pitched workload hurdle and increased his innings pitched by 100 innings over the previous year. Daniel Hudson had a similar situation comparing 2010 and 2011 innings pitched. For high risk pitchers, these examples reinforce the idea of limiting innings pitched to 189 innings in 2015 to lower injury risk.

MEDIUM RISK. Chase Anderson, Rubby De La Rosa, and Robbie Ray. Chase Anderson and Rubby De La Rosa increased their innings pitched by much more than 30 innings. If you count minor league innings, Chase Anderson exceeded the 130 innings workload hurdle. Robbie Ray has not yet reached his injury nexus age.

LOW RISK. Jeremy Hellickson, Allen Webster, Trevor Cahill, Randall Delgado, and Andrew Chafin.

Caveats: The measures are less valid when applied to minor league innings. Therefore, I did not consider pitchers who have not yet pitched in the major league, including Archie Bradley and Yoan Lopez. In addition, because of prior injury, I did not consider the risks of another injury to Daniel Hudson, Patrick Corbin, or Bronson Arroyo.