Consider this a supplement to Jim's Off day ambivalence thread in which he morphed the article into an indictment of the starting pitching.
Fangraphs has Rest of Season Projections for most of our pitchers from two systems, ZIPS and Steamer.
So here is the aggregate rest of season rate stats for our pitchers. Starters first
Name | ERA | FIP | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 |
Wade Miley | 3.90 | 3.81 | 1.29 | 7.36 | 2.65 |
Josh Collmenter | 4.04 | 4.29 | 1.29 | 6.68 | 2.61 |
Trevor Cahill | 4.18 | 4.11 | 1.40 | 7.05 | 3.82 |
Vidal Nuno | 4.24 | 4.32 | 1.29 | 7.23 | 2.48 |
Mike Bolsinger | 4.25 | 4.10 | 1.37 | 7.21 | 3.53 |
Bronson Arroyo | 4.30 | 4.41 | 1.27 | 5.17 | 1.74 |
Chase Anderson | 4.54 | 4.47 | 1.38 | 7.11 | 3.15 |
Zeke Spruill | 4.86 | 4.81 | 1.49 | 5.13 | 3.38 |
Bo Schultz | 5.05 | 5.08 | 1.56 | 4.95 | 4.10 |
Yeah...um thats not so good. National league avg ERA for starting pitchers is 3.81. And that avg includes the D Backs starters 4.55. If you want to really compare the D Backs to the rest of the league you would actually have to take the D Backs out of the equation to get the avg competition they are facing. I didn't do the math on that, but lets just spit ball it and say that offsets the park adjustment.
So we don't even have one starter that projects to be better than league average. But I guess if Corbin comes all the way back, and Bradley wins rookie of the year, we have something next year, right ?
Here is the bullpen:
Name | ERA | FIP | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 |
Oliver Perez | 3.09 | 3.35 | 1.22 | 10.30 | 3.56 |
Brad Ziegler | 3.11 | 3.43 | 1.26 | 6.73 | 2.85 |
Addison Reed | 3.50 | 3.58 | 1.18 | 9.52 | 2.49 |
Evan Marshall | 3.55 | 3.65 | 1.28 | 8.42 | 3.40 |
Will Harris | 3.52 | 3.61 | 1.23 | 8.97 | 2.95 |
Joe Paterson | 3.95 | 4.26 | 1.35 | 6.88 | 3.23 |
Eury De la Rosa | 4.05 | 4.08 | 1.27 | 7.96 | 2.64 |
Matt Stites | 4.05 | 4.08 | 1.27 | 7.96 | 2.64 |
Randall Delgado | 4.22 | 4.35 | 1.35 | 7.83 | 3.39 |
Well thats a little better, except that the best projections belong to guys that are expensive next year. NL Bullpen ERA is 3.50 and D Backs as a team are at 3.52, so right at league avg, IOW taking them out doesn't move the needle on the avg of their competitions. So at least they have a few guys projected to be better than or about league avg.
Players and teams sometimes have amazing turnarounds and totally unexpected performances. Even in D Backs recent history they had 3 straight years of unexpected good performance from rookies or 2nd yr. pitchers in the rotation. Collmenter in 2011, Miley in 2012, and Corbin in 2013. No such luck this year though.
However unless Corbin is all the way back, Bradley or some other rookie really steps up, and quite a number of other guys beat their projections, THIS group of pitchers is not going to produce a playoff spot in 2015.