Dbacks Extension Candidates

With the acquisition of Mark Trumbo from the Angels and an increasing payroll this year and beyond, the Dbacks would be wise to lock up some of their young players below arbitration cost. With arbitration decisions to be made soon, MLBTradeRumors has made a list of which Dbacks could be looking to sign extensions. The list shrunk by one when Brad Ziegler signed his 2 yr/10.5MM deal but there are still quite a few potential left.

Mark Trumbo
Gerardo Parra
Wade Miley
Patrick Corbin
A.J. Pollock

To start, we have Mark Trumbo. The new member of the Dbacks has been an absolute force in his pre-arbitration years with the Angels. With 95 career HR's but a disappointing .250/.299/.469 career slash line so far in his career, his numbers look good to arbitration officials and will no doubt allow him to get paid. The 4yr/30MM deal Billy Butler signed (3MM 1st year, 8MM per for the next 3 years) bought out his arbitration years and is a good base for what to expect out of any extension with Trumbo. I would give Trumbo a 3yr/18MM (6MM AAV) deal that buys out his arbitration years plus a club option 10MM.

The next player up is Gerardo Parra. With increased playing time, Parra has definitely shown his worth as an elite defensive outfielder. Unfortunately for him, arbitrators haven't been to keen on showing better, defense-first players as Brett Gardner only received 2.8MM through his 1st two years. A very good comp for Parra is Austin Jackson. While a better hitter throughout his career (Jackson's 107 vs Parra's 91 career OPS+), the gap has closed in recent years. Unfortunately for us, Austin Jackson is a Boras client and he hasn't been one to negotiate extensions. Any extension with Parra will set the stage for many other players in the league. I expect a AAV of 5-6MM in any deal covering his arbitration years with his FA years receiving over 10MM. Look for a 4yr/26MM to make sure Gerardo Parra stays in Sedona Red.

Wade Miley is next up and has provided some excellent numbers in his first two pre-arb years. A strong 2012 buoys his career 3.54 ERA (112 ERA+) but even though he struggled to begin 2013, he finished the season strong. From May 31st, he threw a 3.17 ERA. An almost perfect match has been Doug Fister, who put up a 113 ERA+ through his first 2+ years and had the exact same amount of starts as Miley with 69. Fister took his play to the next level and was rewarded with 4MM in his first year of arbitration. Can Miley produce like Fister? We will see. James Shields received 14MM over his 3 years of arbitration and John Danks, a slightly better pitcher over the same time, received 4yr/18MM through his extension. An extension with Wade would start at 5MM AAV and go up from there. 4yrs/22MM will do the job with plenty of room.

The next two players, Patrick Corbin and A.J Pollock don't have the resumes the other players have, but if the front office is smart, they will lock them in at an affordable rate before they explode. Pollock is a lot like Parra defensively and if he continues his improvement with the bat, he could be looking at a great payday in arbitration. Any deal right now would cover 4 or 5 years and be comparable to the Denard Span deal of 5yr/16.5MM. Patrick Corbin burst onto the scene and if they decide to lock him up at an affordable rate, a 4yr/12MM deal with a couple of club options would be a great way to show confidence in Patrick's abilities.

So there we go. These numbers are definitely just guesses at this point and should be taken as such. As we get into February, we will see what this FO does with these young players.

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