SnakeLines, Week 18: Starter Wins

Last week's wager was based on the number of home-runs we'd hit. As the Diamondbacks still haven't won a series since the All-Star break, we clearly didn't hit any homers, right? Wrong...

Week 17 Review

Date Batter Opp Pitcher Score Inn RoB Out Pit(cnt) RBI WPA
2013-07-26 Cody Ross SDP Colt Hynes ahead 0-7 b7 --- 0 4 (0-2) 1 0.00
2013-07-27 Miguel Montero SDP Andrew Cashner down 1-0 b2 --- 1 1 (0-0) 1 0.12
2013-07-27 Paul Goldschmidt SDP Andrew Cashner down 8-1 b5 1-- 2 5 (3-1) 2 0.03
2013-07-30 Eric Chavez @TBR Roberto Hernandez down 5-0 t9 1-- 2 1 (0-0) 2 0.00
2013-07-31 Eric Chavez @TBR Jeremy Hellickson ahead 0-2 t3 1-- 1 7 (2-2) 2 0.14
2013-07-31 Paul Goldschmidt @TBR Cesar Ramos ahead 0-6 t9 --- 0 3 (1-1) 1 0.00

I guess the moral of this week's bet is that home-runs do not necessarily equate to victories. The line.was set at 4.5 home-runs, for three games against the Padres, two in Tampa and the make-up game against the Rangers, but the last of these wasn't needed, as we had already hit out fifth and six home-runs of the week, the previous day as we blew out the Rays. Chavez and Goldschmidt both had two homer weeks, with Ross and Montero chipping in with one apiece. But the net result of this unexpected power surge was still a 2-4 record. If only we could have shifted one of Chavez's two-run bombs to the game where Patrick Corbin lost 1-0...

The line almost evenly split the wagers, 11 optimistic fans deciding it would go above, and 10 thinking it wouldn't reach that far. Particular mention in the former group to AZDbackfaninDc, for a cunning, and successful, effort to outsmart himself with this bit of logic.

AzDbackfanInDc

Well, I say Under 100 % but I am always wrong

So I personally think Under but I am going with Over to try to get something correct.

Parra Parra Parra Parra Parra

Er.... I guess, well done? Here are the results, followed by the standings, which see blank_38's lead shrink once again, with AJV19 and grimmy01 now right on his bumper.

  • Winners (11): Angry_Saguaro, AJV19, azcougs, AzDbackfanInDc, BrokeNBattleX, catbat, FlannelFlapjacks, Gildo, grimmy01, GuruB, SenSurround, xmet
  • Sinners (10): AzRattler, blank_38, Craig from Az, PatrickPetersonAZ, piratedan7, preston.salisbury, rd33, TolkienBard, walleye01

Standings

  • 10 points
    blank_38
  • 9 points
    AJV19
    grimmy01
  • 8 points
  • 7 points
    Gildo
    JoelPre
    SenSurround
    TolkienBard
  • 6 points
    AzRattler
    piratedan7
    walleye01
  • 5 points
    Angry_Saguaro
    GuruB
    rd33
  • 4 points
    azshadowwalker
    Craig from Az
    frienetic
    Marc Fournier
    xmet
  • 3 points
    azcougs
    AzDbackfanInDc
    BigLeagueAZ
    FlannelFlapjacks
    imstillhungry95
  • 2 points
    bozzy35
    BrokeNBattleX
    eel
    Maizefed
    Songbird
    TimInTucson
  • 1 point
    AZfan85308
    babakolo
    backtocali
    benhat
    BobRob12
    catbat
    LiamNeeson
    Muu
    navyazfan
    porty99
    preston.salisbury
    Shawnwck
    Xipooo
  • 0 points
    azsportsfan31
    BattleMoses
    Daniel Corbin Jr.
    Diamondhacks
    hotclaws
    leemellon
    littleRoom
    PatrickPetersonAZ
    since_98
    Stumpy657
    Surksquatch

Week 18 line

Bit of an odd week in the schedule, with off-days both Monday and Thursday, as we play three games in Boston against the Red Sox, and then on Tuesday and Wednesday back at Chase against the Rays. Five games will probably mean one start each for the members of our rotation, though the off day could conceivably mean Gibby decides to skip someone (most probably Spruill). The starters after Sunday are "to be announced" according to the official site. Still, that just adds an extra level of intrigue to proceedings, since the five-game schedule makes me lean toward a line based on our rotation.

For a variety of reasons, our starters have struggled to get victories this season, winning just 33 times in 108 starts so far. Only three teams in the league have fewer than that, and those are the trio with close to the worst W% in the National League, in the Marlins, Brewers and Mets. Kinda impressive that Patrick Corbin has 36.4% of our starter wins this season, which is kinda reminiscent of 2004, when Randy Johnson had an amazing 47.1% of our starters' victories, getting 16 of 34. Will that trend hold up? How many W's will our starters pick up over the next five games? Have some stats.

  • Starter wins last five games: one
  • Starter wins last three road games: one
  • Starter wins last two home games: zero
  • Average 2013 starter wins per five games: 1.53

Starting pitcher wins: two

Usual rules. Over, under or push (the last if you think we'll get exactly two wins) in the comments, by first pitch today at Fenway Park (4:10pm, so get your skates on). Get it right, and get a point, unless "push" comes up, when you get two points.

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