Preview: Game #120, Diamondbacks @ Pirates

USA TODAY Sports

Tough road trip for the Diamondbacks starts today, with the first of three in Pittsburgh against the NL Central leading Pirates. Can Arizona build on their sweep of the Orioles?

ari_medium

Brandon McCarthy
RHP, 2-6, 4.73
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Gerrit Cole
RHP, 5-5, 3.95

Diamondbacks line-up

  1. Gerardo Parra, RF
  2. Adam Eaton, LF
  3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
  4. Aaron Hill, 2B
  5. Martin Prado,3B
  6. Wil Nieves, C
  7. A.J. Pollock CF
  8. Cliff Pennington, SS
  9. Brandon McCarthy, P

As we head into this series, here's a look by shoewizard, originally posted on DBBP, that looks at our post-season chances the rest of the way.

Cool Standings has the D Backs with a 18.6% chance to make the playoffs. Projected W/L the rest of the way

LA 25-18
Stl 25-17
Cin 23-21
AZ 22-21

Baseball Prospectus has the D Backs with a 9.6% chance to make the playoffs. Their Projection WL the rest of the way

LA 24-19
Stl 23-21
Cin 23-21
AZ 21-22

FanGraphs also has the D Backs going 21-22 the rest of the way.

So I think a pessimistic approach would be to say the D Backs have roughly a 10% chance to make the playoffs and an optimistic outlook would say 20%

I took a look at CoolStandings historic comebacks and played with the Data to come up with the list of teams that have come back from 20% or less chance from August 1st onwards. 36 teams have pulled that off in a little over 100 years. I don't have time to play with the formatting. But the second percentage showing is the Avg Playoff percentage for that team for the year.

Of course 36 teams in 100+ years does not mean a 1 in 3 chance, because there were other teams with less than 20% chance that DIDN'T make the playoffs....scores off them. But one thing in the D Backs favor at this point is there is nobody between them and the Reds, and there is nobody really close on their heels eithher. (Nationals are 59-60 as of this writing)

The Cardinals won today though......Reds are playing Mil (EDIT...CRAP the Reds Won too), Dodgers are off.

Odds shown above in the post just got worse. Oh, Well.

POFF  Team                       Avg POFF   Date
 0.2% 1973 New York Mets            10.0%   5-Aug
 0.3% 1951 New York Giants          10.1%   12-Aug
 0.5% 2011 Tampa Bay Rays            9.7%   3-Sep
 0.6% 2004 Houston Astros           18.5%   26-Aug
 0.7% 1934 St. Louis Cardinals      14.8%   6-Sep
 0.7% 1930 St. Louis Cardinals      18.0%   19-Aug
 1.1% 2011 St. Louis Cardinals      29.0%   27-Aug
 1.4% 1969 New York Mets            25.3%   14-Aug
 1.5% 1974 Baltimore Orioles        17.3%   29-Aug
 1.7% 1995 New York Yankees         23.2%   26-Aug
 1.9% 1962 San Francisco Giants     29.9%   22-Sep
 2.5% 1965 Los Angeles Dodgers      32.4%   15-Sep
 2.5% 1938 Chicago Cubs             21.5%   3-Sep
 3.0% 1969 Atlanta Braves           21.5%   1-Sep
 3.5% 1908 Chicago Cubs             25.5%   18-Sep
 4.0% 2009 Minnesota Twins          24.9%   30-Sep
 4.1% 1983 Los Angeles Dodgers      46.8%   11-Aug
 5.0% 1980 Philadelphia Phillies    34.6%   10-Aug
 5.4% 1982 Atlanta Braves           47.8%   22-Sep
 6.0% 1972 Detroit Tigers           31.5%   11-Sep
 6.1% 1942 St. Louis Cardinals      25.6%   15-Aug
 6.2% 1964 New York Yankees         33.1%   22-Aug
 6.3% 1948 Cleveland Indians        47.1%   14-Sep
 7.0% 1921 New York Giants          46.2%   23-Aug
 7.4% 1937 New York Giants          40.7%   3-Aug
 7.7% 1904 Boston Red Sox           40.0%   16-Aug
 8.5% 1999 New York Mets            54.8%   30-Sep
12.2% 2004 Anaheim Angels           35.3%   24-Sep
12.6% 2008 Los Angeles Dodgers      50.8%   29-Aug
13.1% 1927 Pittsburgh Pirates       50.4%   16-Aug
13.2% 1949 Brooklyn Dodgers         44.0%   25-Sep
15.4% 1997 San Francisco Giants     42.2%   16-Sep
16.6% 1980 Houston Astros           42.2%   13-Aug
16.8% 1955 New York Yankees         44.5%   9-Aug
17.0% 1909 Detroit Tigers           51.7%   21-Aug
17.3% 1998 Texas Rangers            50.4%   6-Sep
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