SnakeLines, Week 17: Home Runs

Swapping things up this week. With a late Thursday game, 'charmer's Trends will appear tomorrow afternoon, so to avoid overcrowding, we're moving up SnakeLines to this afternoon. We can do that because, unfortunately, last week's line is already dead in the water.

Week 16 Review

The line last week was based on the number of Diamondback wins, and with seven games on the table, was set at four. There was a good amount of action on both the over and the "push" of exactly four, but things haven't gone the D-backs way. They dropped two of three against the Giants in San Francisco, and the series against the Cubs has gone little better, with also only one victory in the three contests here in Arizona. Last night's irritating defeat [we come from six back to tie, and then lose? Really?] means, with one game left to go, tonight at Chase, even a victory tonight would not be enough to reach the line, leaving the Diamondbacks with three wins at best.

It doesn't give me any pleasure, but this did result in a highly profitable week for the SnakePit Casino, with all but three of this week's entrants being left with nothing but a betting slip, made of wasted dreams and tearful regrets, to show for their efforts. Fan optimism didn't exactly pay off. Here's the (brief) list of winners, and everyone else.

  • Winners (3): azcougs, AzRattler, LiamNeeson
  • Sinners (19): AJV19, AzDbackfanInDc, azshadowwalker, blank_38, BrokeNBattleX, Craig from Az, Gildo, grimmy01, GuruB, hotclaws, imstillhungry95, JoelPre, piratedan7, preston.salisbury, rd33, SenSurround, Stumpy657, TolkienBard, xmet

Standings

  • 10 points
    blank_38
  • 8 points
    AJV19
    grimmy01
  • 7 points
    JoelPre
    TolkienBard
  • 6 points
    AzRattler
    Gildo
    piratedan7
    SenSurround
    walleye01
  • 5 points
    rd33
  • 4 points
    Angry_Saguaro
    azshadowwalker
    Craig from Az
    frienetic
    GuruB
    Marc Fournier
  • 3 points
    BigLeagueAZ
    imstillhungry95
    xmet
  • 2 points
    azcougs
    AzDbackfanInDc
    bozzy35
    eel
    FlannelFlapjacks
    Maizefed
    Songbird
    TimInTucson
  • 1 point
    AZfan85308
    babakolo
    backtocali
    benhat
    BobRob12
    BrokeNBattleX
    LiamNeeson
    Muu
    navyazfan
    porty99
    preston.salisbury
    Shawnwck
    Xipooo
  • 0 points
    azsportsfan31
    BattleMoses
    Daniel Corbin Jr.
    Diamondhacks
    hotclaws
    leemellon
    littleRoom
    since_98
    Stumpy657
    Surksquatch

Week 17 line

Kevin Towers wanted an offense that relied less on the home-run, and he has certainly got that. Through 101 games, the Diamondbacks have only 82: the Giants and Marlins are the only teams in the National League with fewer bombs. The current pace of 132 homers would be the lowest in franchise history: even the 2004 D-backs hit three more than that. Of course, offense is down across the entire league: the current National League OPS of .708 is the lowest figure since 1992. Even excluding pitchers, the average NL line this season is .259/.323/.404, a .727 OPS, so we may need to lower our estimates of what constitutes an "average" hitter these days.

But how many home-runs will the D-backs hit next week? Note, that will exclude this evening's series finale against the Cubs, which is still part of this week's lame-duck line. It starts Friday, covering three games against the Padres, Monday's off-day, two games in Tampa against the Rays, and the make-up game on August 1 where we face the Rangers. So, that's a total of six games, versus three different opponents, in three different cities and spanning three different time-zones. But it boils down to three at Chase and three on the road. Have some numbers:

  • Home-runs per game at Chase: 0.84
  • Home-runs per game on road: 0.78
  • Home-runs, last three home games: two
  • Home-runs, last three road games: one

Diamondbacks home-runs: 4½

Again: tonight's game is not in play. This does, however, give you an extra day to get your predictions in, as you can enter at any time before first pitch at Chase on Friday night, 6:40pm. Otherwise, usual rules apply: enter in the comments with "over" or "under", depending on whether you think the team will reach five home-runs this week or not, and if you call it right, you get a point. Answers next week: probably on Friday this time!

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