SnakeLines, Week 15: Run Differential

The past week has been a mix of the very good and very poor as far the D-backs were concerned. What of their starters? Did they reach their target? And how will Arizona do against Milwaukee, as we head to the All-Star break?

Week 14 review

Player Date Opp Rslt Dec IP H R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GSc
Tyler Skaggs 07-05 COL W 5-0 W 8.0 3 0 0 1 5 0 103 65 80
Wade Miley 07-06 COL W 11-1 W 8.0 5 1 1 1 5 1 101 64 72
Patrick Corbin 07-07 COL W 6-1 W 8.0 3 1 1 1 10 1 97 67 81
Randall Delgado 07-08 LAD L 1-6 L 6.0 11 3 3 0 3 0 91 63 41
Ian Kennedy 07-09 LAD L 1-6 L 5.2 9 6 5 3 2 0 109 69 28
Tyler Skaggs 07-10 LAD L 5-7
4.1 8 3 3 3 3 0 91 58 35
Wade Miley 07-11 MIL W 5-3 W 8.0 8 3 3 0 4 2 109 74 58

The projected line for starter innings this week was 42 1/2, and the Diamondbacks get off to a roaring start during the series against the Rockies, all three men working eight innings, to give the bullpen a breather after a tough road-trip. An excellent trio of performances saw a 3-0 record with an ERA of just 0.75, and left our starters needing only 19 innings over the next four games to reach the line. However, the Dodgers proved significantly tougher, and our pitchers proved increasingly fleeting, capping with Skaggs' outing in the finale, which last only one out into the fifth, and left our relievers once again exhausted.

Coming into the final line, Wade Miley needed to go three innings (technically, 2.2 would have done), and it looked pretty flaky early on. He allowed four hits and two runs in a 22-pitch first, another hit in the second before being helped out by a caught stealing, and another run with one out in the third. But Miley settled down, at one point retiring 13 batters in a row. If the bullpen had been rested, he might have been pulled for a pinch hitter in the fifth, with offense at a premium. But in the end he did everything we could have wanted, soldiering on through eight innings for the second time this week, keeping the D-backs in the game and earning the W.

That brought the final tally for the week to 48 innings, clearly above the line. Betting was even on this round, with exactly half the punters opting for over, and half under. Here are the tallies for the week.

  • Winners (7): AJV19, AzRattler, blank_38, imstillhungry95, rd33, TolkienBard, xmet
  • Sinners (7): AzDbackfanInDc, azshadowwalker, grimmy01, GuruB, JoelPre, piratedan7, preston.salisbury

Standings

  • 10 points
    blank_38
  • 8 points
    AJV19
    grimmy01
  • 7 points
    TolkienBard
  • 6 points
    Gildo
    JoelPre
    piratedan7
    SenSurround
  • 5 points
    AzRattler
    rd33
    walleye01
  • 4 points
    Angry_Saguaro
    Craig from Az
    frienetic
    GuruB
    Marc Fournier
  • 3 points
    azshadowwalker
    BigLeagueAZ
    imstillhungry95
  • 2 points
    AzDbackfanInDc
    eel
    FlannelFlapjacks
    Maizefed
    Songbird
    TimInTucson
    xmet
  • 1 point
    azcougs
    AZfan85308
    babakolo
    backtocali
    benhat
    BobRob12
    BrokeNBattleX
    Muu
    navyazfan
    porty99
    preston.salisbury
    Shawnwck
    Xipooo
  • 0 points
    azsportsfan31
    BattleMoses
    Daniel Corbin Jr.
    Diamondhacks
    hotclaws
    leemellon
    LiamNeeson
    littleRoom
    since_98
    Surksquatch

Week 15 line

It's a short week, since we just have the three games leading up to the All-Star break. Monday through Wednesday cover that, and then there's a scheduled off-day to start the second-half of the season, so this line covers only the remainder of the Milwaukee series. Let's go with a number that combines all aspects of the game, both offense and defense. How many runs will the D-backs outscore the Brewers the rest of the way? So that's the total number of runs scored by Arizona, minus the runs scored by Milwaukee. All runs count, be they earned, unearned, in regulation or extra innings. The usual selection of stats so far:

  • D-backs runs per game (overall): 4.25
  • D-backs runs per game (home): 4.44
  • D-backs runs per game (last ten): 4.50
  • Brewers runs per game (overall): 3.95
  • Brewers runs per game (road): 3.77
  • Brewers runs per game (last ten): 3.70

My expectations are the D-backs will take two of the three games, with one a blow-out and the other a narrow victory. The Brewers will win one, but it won't be by that much. Putting it all together, the projected line is:

Diamondbacks run differential: +3½

Usual rules. Will the team be over or under? Tell us in the comments, by first pitch Friday at Chase Field (6:40pm). Get it right, and get a point - results next week, at some point during the break.

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