For each wager, we show the original line, then in brackets, the amount wagered above and below the line, the pace extrapolating from the one-third point, and whether that would be over or under the line.
Steady as she goes, Arizona picking up 15 wins in this stretch, the same as over the opening furlong, where we also went 15-12. That we followed up a 16-win April, with a 14-win May, perhaps seems to show how not that relevant the early blown save epidemic was - we had only two in May, compared to nine the previous month. It was also a spell which saw the Diamondbacks move to the top of the National League West, as the Rockies were unable to sustain their fast start to the season. There's a tough stretch of schedule coming up, and the Giants series next weekend is already feeling key.
That's a 45 point increase on last time, so it's clear Prado has turned it around, though still has a pretty long way to go to reach the expected line. He has a .313 average in May, though doesn't have a home-run. His OPS of @@ over this stretch of 27 games compares favorably with a certain Braves OF (below) What he remains a master of, is putting the ball in play: he doesn't walk much, but his K rate is also among the lowest in the league. All told, over 80% of his trips to the plate end with the defense having to make a play. Compare say, the results achieved by Dan Uggla this season, who between strikeouts, walks and home-runs, fails to trouble the defense more often than not.
Not many ways to sugar-coat this. After homering in his second game back off the DL, Kubel has been awful, with exactly zero home-runs in 55 at-bats during the month of May. The last time he had such a power outage month while getting 40+ PA was April 2007. He has had longer streaks - he went over a hundred PAs in Apr/May last year without a long-ball, but then he was at least hitting. Since his return in late April, Kubel's average has been below the Uecker Line, with him going 11-for-61, a .180 average. At this point, the chances of him ending the year on the D-backs roster seem increasingly slim.
[Insert slightly sad on-hold music here]
Paul Goldschmidt now has the third-highest rWAR among 2009 draftees, after Trout and Strasburg. Pat Corbin ranks 10th.— keithlaw (@keithlaw) May 30, 2013
Amusing sidelight. I had minor difficulty getting the embed code for the above, first having to log out of my Twitter account Turns out, this was because - OMG! - I've been blocked by a certain ESPN pundit from following them.
-Wins 14½ (2,852-1,050). 6 under - Wins 12½ (8,915-0). 9 under - Wins 14 (1,667-6,148). 9 under
If you'd told us at the beginning of the season that, at the one-third point, the trio above would have won just eight of their 32 combined starts, you'd be quite surprised also to have learned that we'd be sitting in first place. Indeed, four of our five current rotation members have a losing record: throw McCarthy in, and you're looking at a W-L mark of 10-17, which hardly seems like the mark of a contender. There's still time for any of them to turn it around - Cahill seems the most likely at this point, but Kennedy needs thirteen wins in probably little more than 20 starts, which would be a tough assignment.
This bet is looking increasingly like the very definition of a "sunk cost". After not being far off the page in the early going, Putz made exactly one appearance since last time we reported. He threw four pitches, all balls and went straight on the DL, from where he has yet to be seen doing anything significant in the way of rehab. He needs 30 saves the rest of the way to end up above the line: while not utterly impossible at this point (that would be a 45-save pace over an entire season), every game he's not on the roster makes it more unlikely. At this point, seems he may not be back much before the All-Star break.
- HR's 27½ (2,512-2,351). 42 over
Justin Upton - BA .285(2,030-1,201). .254 under
Remember the first couple of weeks of the year, when Upton trolls would breathlessly rush in to threads, giddily announcing every home-run and hit? Don't see that much of late, do we? The reason is simple: Upton has sucked about as hard at the plate this month, as Prado did in April. Since last time, his line is .207/.327/.326, a .653 OPS, and his resulting, shrinking BA is the only number to have switched sides this round. The monstrous April means he could not hit another homer until the half-way mark, yet still be on pace to crack the line, and he's taking plenty of walks, but that current average is his worst since 2008, currently by a 26-point margin.
As mentioned, Upton's BA was the only one of the categories which shifted this month, so only those who bet on that will have seen their profit or loss change. That has led to some movement in the standings, however:
|Dallas D'Back Fan||-$1,500.00|
imstillhungry95 drops out of the "perfect" category, to be replaced by Wailord, who sees his pessimism regarding Upton's average rewarded. There's no change at the bottom, but Upton's slump does reduce the overall profit for the participants by almost $1,500 dollars. But there are still over a hundred games to go, and plenty can happen between now and the end of September. We'll be back in another month or so, with the next update.