Place Your Bets on the 2013 Diamondbacks: One Month In

By Mikerussell (Own work) [CC-BY-SA-3.0via Wikimedia Commons)

Before the season, we asked you to wager SnakePit dollars on various D-backs related lines. Tuesday night's game marked the 1/6 point, so let's see where we stand so far.

We had forty people take part this time, a big uptick in last season, which was nice - even though putting together the spreadsheet was rather time-consuming as a result! I can't guarantee I did that with 100% accuracy, so please feel free to check your wagers, work out your own number and make sure it matches what's shown for you in the standings. As mentioned above, the numbers are shown through 27 D-backs games (up to and including Tuesday night), but I figured I'd hold this over until today's off-day, when there's less going on.

Let's take a look at the progress in all the categories to date. For each wager, we show the original line, then in brackets, the amount wagered above and below the line, the pace at the one-sixth point, and whether that would be over or under the line.

Diamondbacks - Wins 81½ (9,098-1,400), 90, over

Considering Arizona has had a slew of injuries, too many blown saves and some disappointing performances, all told, the season is going better than expected. We're one game out of first in the division, and that's trailing the Rockies, whom I fully expect to fade over the remaining 135 games. The issues have been countered by great performances from the back of the rotation, and solid output from Goldschmidt and Parra in particular. If you'd told me before the season began that we'd finish April 15-12, I'd have happily settled for that. Fan wagering was heavy on the over, as you'd expect, and so far, it has paid off.

Martin Prado - BA .299 (3,198-3,150). .217, under

Perhaps the most disappointing of those performances has been Prado. The power's there - he's on pace for 24 home-runs, well above his previous career high of 15, but the hits just haven't been there. For someone who was expected to be batting at .300 or thereabouts, it has been a very disappointing start to the season. It may just be bad luck: despite a line-drive percentage above his career norm, his BABIP is down at .214, 7th worst among qualifying NL hitters [The best figure is Chris Johnson's .460, likely even less sustainable]. When that regresses, his BA should improve, but it'll have to work hard to get up to where it should be.

Jason Kubel - HR's 24½ (1,051-4,324). 18 under

This is where injuries come into play. It's likely hard for fans to take this kind of thing into account, but Vegas does, with every player having a non-zero chance of being hurt during a season. For Kubel, it would seem even more likely, considering his three-year average was 128 games played. That said, considering he has missed well over half the D-backs games to date, the fact he's only one about home-run off the pace is not too bad, and if he stays fit, he could easily make it up. Still, the betting was heavily on the "under" this time, so perhaps you did take the health aspect into consideration after all.

Aaron Hill - HR's 20½ (1,750-346). 12 under

As for Kubel, also for Hill, who had two home-runs in 10 games, before his season was abruptly derailed by a surface fracture in his hand. That will keep him out for a while into the second month of the season, but he should still have plenty of time to catch up, particularly if he continues hitting at the pace he was before getting hurt. The SnakePit dollars were wagered heavily - at more than a 5:1 ratio - on him doing so, but as we apparently saw with Justin Upton last season, a hand injury can prove tricky, sapping a player of power even if it doesn't keep him out of the line-up.

Paul Goldschmidt - HR's 25½ (2,954-600). 30 over

Insert snarky comment about Keith Law here. The SnakePit clearly had a good deal more confidence in Goldzilla than Law did, and so far, he has been everything for which we could have hoped. Not just the home-runs, but also hitting close to .300 and playing excellent defense at first-base. What's perhaps most impressive is that Goldschmidt was has hit five home-runs without having faced Tim Lincecum, as those at-bats came in Game #28 of the season, and so are outside the period covered in this report.

Ian Kennedy -Wins 14½ (2,852-1,050). 6 under
Trevor Cahill
- Wins 12½ (8,915-0). 6 under
Wade Miley
- Wins 14 (1,667-6,148). 12 under

Let's combine this trio of starters into one lumpy paragraph. All three are under their lines for now, though the reasons for that do differ widely. Kennedy has struggled, Cahill has tended to be either good or awful, and Miley has deserved a much, much better fate. That's now 17 starts across the three of them, and they have managed only four wins. Heath Bell has more wins than Kennedy or Cahill, and Bell has only thrown ten innings - or, as Josh Collmenter calls that, "a light warm-up session." The SnakePit showed unanimous faith in Cahill, no-one taking the under: but so far, he has not yet repaid it. Though as Tuesday night showed, it's not always his fault.

J.J. Putz - Saves 34½ (500-2,902). 30 under

As last year, the bulk of the money went on Putz coming up short, though if he had held on in Cahill's start against the Giants, he'd actually have been over the line. He has certainly had enough chances, a result of the high number of close games in which the Diamondbacks have been involved: JJ would have been well over, if he had saved all nine opportunities he had, rather than blowing four of them. And that might prove key to this line going forward: not whether he saves games, so much as whether Putz gets the opportunity to save them. We may see a decrease in that, while consistency with the splitter continues to elude him.

Justin Upton - HR's 27½ (2,512-2,351). 72(!) over
Justin Upton - BA .285(2,030-1,201). .298 over

Deadhorse_medium

Standings

SnakePitter Result
imstillhungry95 1,500
ncgoose 1,500
LondonAZsportsfan 1,500
Captain Canuck 1,000
azshadowwalker 1,000
awmelton 900
BigLeagueAZ 900
EzioExManAZ 900
TomatoPieGuy 700
BritBack 500
phx suns 500
John Baragona 500
Stumpy657 500
Azreous 500
LiamNeeson 500
Lisalisa8 500
dbacks25 500
NLWestBaseball 500
Diamondhacks 500
Wailord 500
xmet 300
grimmy01 300
SenSurround 268.86
jwise224 100
blank_38 100
Marc Fournier 0
Shawnwck -100
deerhaven -100
Gildo -200
Zavada's Mustache -300
tstack1014 -300
Angry_Saguaro -301
GuruB -304
moosewilson -500
shoewizard -500
aricat -500
eel -500
AzDbackfanInDc -500
hotclaws -1,500
Dallas D'Back Fan -1,500
Total 9,196.86

For bettors, 2013 got off to a much better start, collectively, than last year - you are actually solidly in the black at this point. That's mostly due to heacy wagering on the overall wins total, which has so far surpassed expectations. Thre was also help from (a lack of) Kubel's homers and Miley's wins, though both of those are still to close for anyone to be ordering a round of margaritas yet. On the individual level, imstillhungry95, ncgoose and LondonAZsportsfan are currently winning all three of their bets, while hotclaws and Dallas D'Back Fan had better be checking down the back of the sofa for loose change. Still, very early days yet, and a lot can change in five months.

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