2013 MLB Projected Standings

Justin Sullivan

In recent days Baseball Prospectus, CAIRO and the first Las Vegas sports book have all come out with the projected standings for the 2013 season. Here's what they have had to say.

National League West

Team BP CAIRO Vegas
Dodgers 93 89 89.5
Giants 85 88 86
Diamondbacks 84 84 81.5
Padres 76 80 74.5
Rockies 72 72 71.5

We start, naturally, in the NL West, and it does look as if money talks, with the Dodgers clear favorites to win the division, by a margin of as much as eight games, according to Baseball Prospectus. The World Series champion Giants appear to have a fight on their hands, and it doesn't appear as if one of the more tumultuous off-seasons in D-backs history has moved the needle very much, especially in the eyes of the Vegas sports-books. Down at the bottom, the Padres will suck, and the Rockies will suck harder, and there's a complete consensus as to the final order, though the margins between them do vary.

National League Central

Team BP CAIRO Vegas
Reds
92
91
89.5
Cardinals
84
86
85.5
Brewers
79
78
79.5
Pirates
79
78
79
Cubs
77
73
72

The three systems are more or less in agreement for the Central as well, with the Reds looking to skip away, by between four and eight wins over the Cardinals. The Brewers and Pirates are separated by only the thinnest of margins, but it doesn't look like anyone expects Pittsburgh to end their ongoing lengthy losing streak of sub-.500 seasons. So, business as usual there, I guess. And in the Central's basement, we find the Cubs, so it looks like even the Mayan apocalypse failure isn't able to break the curse.

National League East

Team BP CAIRO Vegas
Nationals
88
92
90
Braves
82
88
86
Phillies 80
82
81.5
Mets
80
73
74
Marlins
66
66
64.5

It's all about the Strasburgs (well, and the Harpers) in the National League East, with Washington being picked to repeat as division champions, and it's not even close. The Braves are about the only ones with much hope of catching them, while the Phillies hover around .500, and the Mets look up at them. And then... There's the Marlins. Pardon me while I climb up on my soapbox and present to you, Exhibit A concerning why public funding should not be provided to professional sports facilities. Enjoy your $2.4 billion debt, Miami-Dade County.

American League West

Team BP CAIRO Vegas
Angels
90
91
89.5
Rangers
87
89
87
Athletics
83
87
83
Mariners
79
73
76.5
Astros
63
58
59.5

Well, I suppose at least they're not the Astros. What does it says, when before the season starts. the three systems project an average of 102 losses for your team? Admittedly, that would still be a five-game improvement over last season, but when was the last time any franchise had three consecutive 100-loss campaigns in a row? The Tigers did it from 1994-96. Before that? The 1971-74 Padres almost did, being saved by going 58-98 in a strike-shortened 1972; so probably the 1962-65 Mets. Otherwise, a two-way fight between the Angels and Rangers, with a sliver of hope for the A's.

American League Central

Team BP CAIRO Vegas
Tigers
92
87
90
Indians
80
81
77.5
Royals
76
80
79
White Sox
77
77
80.5
Twins
66
66
64.5

The biggest margin of victory is expected to be in the AL Central, where the Tigers appear to be unstoppable with the 2011 and 2012 MVPs, Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, as they try to three-peat in the division. All three systems project Detroit to be the only team above .500 there, with the next three teams clustered just below that mark, some way ahead of the woeful Twins, who get saved from the tag of "Worst team in the American League" by the fortuitous arrival of the Astros.

American League East

Team BP CAIRO Vegas
Yankees
92
87
86.5
Blue Jays
85
90
86.5
Rays
86
88
85
Red Sox
86
82
79.5
Orioles
74
76
76.5

Finally, some controversy! Or, at least, discussion, as we have a division where there is some difference of opinion as to the winner. BP think it'll stiill be the Yankees, but CAIRO gives it to the Blue Jays, by a couple of wins over the Rays, with the pinstripers back in third. Vegas, however, can't split Toronto and New York, and the Rays are hardly out of the picture, at 1.5 games back. About the only thing that's largely agreed upon, is that the Orioles won't be able to repeat their success, and will end up in their usual basement-dwelling position again.

Of course, these are only projections, and we've seen often enough, that an awful lot can happen over the course of a 162-game season to derail expectations. That is, after all, why they play the games.

Sources: BP, CAIRO and Vegas

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