As usual, the pre-season line is given, followed by the split of wagers on over and under in brackets, then the current pace, and whether that is on course to be over or under.
A 12-15 run down the stretch proved not quite good enough to reach the line, and your bookmaker breathed a heavy sigh of relief, with over 85% of the money being driven by fan optimism, and going for the over. The late swing to the under was very profitable for the house, and ended up tipping the overall balance of this year's wagers back to the casino. Rather than having to pay out close to $7,700, Arizona going 4-7 down the stretch turned into a house win of the same order. Not far off, certainly: I wonder how close the projected lines were for the other teams in the West? Should have made a note before the season.
Prado couldn't quite complete the push back to the .300 mark, hitting .244 down the stretch. Still, that .282 figure was pretty respectable, considering where he was when we first checked at the end of April - hitting .217. Indeed, his line thereafter came in almost exactly on the line, at .298, so it seems fairly credible to consider April as an inexplicable aberration, and the other five months as being the "real" Prado. Hopefully he can avoid such a wretched start with the Diamondbacks next season, and start as he means to go on.
- HR's 20½ (1,750-346). 11, under
This was only in 87 games, which would work out at... Hmm, 20.5 home-runs over the course of a full, 162-game season. Admittedly, he probably wouldn't have appeared in every game, and these lines are generally supposed to have factor that takes injury into account (so tend to be lower than an "actual" 162-game projection for a player), so this would probably still have been an under, if we discount the injury. There was a bit of a drop overall in Aaron's production, his OPS+ going down from 133 to 124. However, even the latter is still well in the upper tier for the position: only four qualifying 2B in the majors were higher.
- HR's 25½ (2,954-600). 36, over
One of the many impressive things about Goldschmidt's 2013 campaign is how consistent it was. Here's the number of home-runs hit over each sixth (27 games) of the season: 5, 7, 7, 5, 7, 5. This didn't just apply to homers either: his worst month of the season, he had an .828 OPS. Even during that 22-game streak where Goldschmidt didn't have a single home-run, he made up for it with a walk-rate of over 20%, and still put up an .864 OPS over that time. If they do this number again in 2014, it's going to be interesting to see how the line is adjusted. Got to be thinking 32-33 homers as the likely mark.
- Wins 14½ (2,852-1,050). 3, under - Wins 12½ (8,915-0). 8, under - Wins 14 (1,667-6,148). 10, under
Not remotely close, even if you add in Kennedy's four wins in San Diego. Both Cahill and Miley were significantly better in the second half, combining to go 9-3, with both men having ERAs below three - it gives me hope that they'll carry this forward into 2014. Amazing to see no-one at all taking the under on Cahill: admittedly, 12.5 wins seemed almost a cinch, given he had averaged over 14 per year, from 2010 through 2012. Admittedly, injury did take its toll, with Cahill throwing 50 innings less than in any of those seasons. But his ERA+ ended up the same as his 2011 campaign (96), and his win percentage was similarly below .500.
If you'd been told at the start of the year that Putz would have an ERA of 2.36, you might have felt rather more comfortable about betting above this line. However, there was a sharp distinction between Putz's performance in non-save and save situations. In the former, he had a minuscule ERA of 0.93, holding opposing hitters to a .474 OPS. But with the game on the line, his ERA became 4.20, with an OPS almost four hundred points higher. He started out slow, blowing four saves in April, so I suspect we may see him being more active next spring, as it didn't seem the "barely bother to pitch" approach proved too successful.
- HR's 27½ (2,512-2,351). 27 under
Justin Upton - BA .285(2,030-1,201). .263 under
The BA portion of the line was a lost cause, and J-Up hit .260 since last update, more or less in line with the overall number. Upton needed four home-runs in September to crack that one - he came up just short, with three, hitting his 27th in the penultimate game of the season. Overall, it was a roller-coaster season, with an astonishing first month, followed by five that were not so good, shall we say, with a .753 OPS after April. The final offense overall was likely close to what was expected with an OPS+ of 122, compared to his current career number of 118, though the defensive metrics reduced his value significantly this season.
|Dallas D'Back Fan||-$500.00|
Congratulations to Wailord and NLWestBaseball. who were the only two competitors to get all their wagers correct. Both took the DOOOOM approach, Wailord going with under for Upton BA, Prado BA and Miley W, while NLWest wagered on Upton HR, Prado BA and Miley W. At the other end, phx suns and AzDbackfanInDc lost their respective shirts, betting on team wins, Upton HR, Cahill W, and team wins, Miley W and Cahill W respectively. The total of all bets saw the house turn a tidy profit of just over eight thousand dollars: that's less than in 2012, but still enough to make me consider doing this for real next season. All major credit cards accepted. :)
Thanks to everyone who took part, and we'll bring this back next year, so you can try again.