Ian Kennedy: 2013's Most Valuable Diamondback? - Dustin Bradford
'Skins posted a Fanpost to these a while ago, but it's probably something which does deserve rather more discussion. So, I've copied, pasted and generally tidied up the numbers, into a format which contains the numbers most likely to be of interest to us here.
This follows up on the earlier pieces, where we looked at the Bill James system and the CAIRO system projections. The last of the "big three" is now out, with Dan Szymborski's ZIPS system, which has moved from Baseball Think Factory over to Fangraphs.
Random thoughts on the offensive numbers, in no particular order:
- I've removed Upton from the stats here, but the original projection (pre-move to Atlanta) was .275/.355/.440, for 3.4 WAR.
- Interesting to see both Pennington and Gregorius projected at 1.9 WAR. The former is interesting, because it's not that far off the 2.3 WAR Chris Young is expected to put up in Oakland (while earning a great deal more money). And the latter because it's despite a projected OPS+ of 86, demonstrating how much of his value is with the glove, and due to his position.
- Adam Eaton gets some more love: that's 3-for-3 in the systems. More valuable than everyone except Montero and Hill, according to ZIPS, and easily the most valuable of the Arizona outfielders. Maybe John B was right, and an All-Star game appearance could be in Adam's future? :)
- Hinske and Bloomquist would seem likely to be the two men least likely to make the 2013 Opening Day roster, based on these. Suspect most readers would generally agree with that concept.
- Overall, I'd be inclined to take the over on Goldie and Ross, the under on Montero and Eaton; most of the rest probabdon't look too far off the mark.
- While we don't have Prado's numbers with us, here's a final thought from Dan on the offense:
@bertdbacks Thanks for the link.FWIW, ZiPS actually thinks a 3B/OF of Prado/Kubel/Eaton/Ross nearly 2 win upgrade over Johnson/K/R/Upton.— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) January 26, 2013
More random thoughts:
- That's a pretty good set of numbers, without a negative among them. Of course, there'll likely be the need for replacements, but even if those are... well, replacement level, it could give us one of the best pitching staffs in the majors. This year, the leading fWAR for hurlers were the Tigers, just shy of 25 WAR, and the above is close to 27. However, the overall innings pitched are likely too high, with the above named slated to combine for about 206 starts. [As with most projection systems, playing time is kinda fluid]
- I'd be very happy with most of those numbers. I suspect Hudson probably won't contribute much in the way of effective pitching this season, but if we get a whole season out of McCarthy - and I appreciate the key word there is "if" - then that'll help make up for this. Kennedy seems somewhat optimistic, and Cahill perhaps a bit too.
- The bullpen is looking pretty strong. I would take the under on Bell and Sipp, and the over on Putz - figuring that, eventually, whatever is chasing him will catch up eventually...