With the incessant trade talk around Justin Upton, interesting to hear Brian Kenny’s breakdown of him yesterday on MLB Network's “Clubhouse Confidential” show. Here's the clip, in which Kenny puts Upton into their analyzer - known as “The Shredder” - and looks at his career numbers at the plate, on the bases and in the field.
Among the erratic statistics that "The Shredder" reveals is Upton’s fluctuating slugging percentages during his career and the marked difference in his home and road splits. In discussing his positives however, Kenny notes that Justin Upton is one of only nine players in the past four decades to slug over .520 twice before the age of 23. Will he get the chance to do so again for the Diamondbacks? We'll have to wait and see. But it's certainly a reasonable aspect to mention how much he enjoys hitting at Chase Field. His line away from Chase is.250/.325/.406, a .731 OPS that's over two hundred points lower than what he hits at home.
That perhaps counts as a reason to hold onto him: another team might see those splits and consider Upton a Chase Field product, in the same way that Rockies' hitters are generally devalued (see Tulowitzki, Troy - though his career home/road difference is actually barely half that of Upton's, at 107 OPS points). His worth to another team may actually be less, to a quite considerable degree, than it is to Arizona. If that's reflected in the return other franchises are willing to offer, what we receive could end up being less valuable than Upton's production, in the happy hunting ground which has been Phoenix.