Today marks another lap in the Diamondbacks 2012 season: there's exactly one-sixth of the season left following this afternoon's contest in Los Angeles. As we come around for the last month, it's time to take a look at the wagers placed by the SnakePitters before the start of the season, on the performance of the team and various individuals on it. Who's in the money, and who will be living in a virtual van, down by the river, come the end of the season and reckoning time?
As before, for each wager, I'll give you the original projection, then in brackets, how much SnakePit money went on each side of the line, with the first amount being the total bet on the D-backs being over that line. Then, there's the current pace, based on numbers through the end of game #108 on Sunday, and whether that will end up being over or under the projected line.
Diamondbacks Wins: 86½ (5550-1100). Pace: 79 - UNDER
I think we might as well stick a fork in this one, because it's just about done. We'd now have to go 21-6 to reach the mark, and the team hasn't done that over any 27-game span since July 21-Aug 19, 2007. And if we play like we have over the last 27, that will be an 11-16 record, and a final record of 77-85. I don't think we'll do quite that badly [13 of our last 16 games are against teams below .500, including six against the Rockies and three versus the Cubs], but it'll take some effort - 15-12, to be exact - to avoid a losing mark this year.
Justin Upton - BA: .290 (1517-900). Pace: .271 - UNDER
- Total HR's 29½ (2850-200). Pace: 14 - UNDER
Justin Upton - Total RBI's 90½ (800-100). Pace: 65 - UNDER
Upton has been fairly consistent with his overall production this year: each calendar month has been within 50 OPS points of .780. However, the problem is that he hasn't had a single month where he has hit the necessary pace for HR (five) or RBI (16) necessary to cross the lines. Batting average has done a little better, with a couple of solid months, but he'd still need a monstrous last spell - we're talking about him hitting around the .385 mark the rest of the way - in order to reach the line by the end of the season.
Chris Young - Total HR's 22½ (1350-900). Pace: 17 - UNDER
What might have been. That's going to be the question that will haunt Young over the winter. How might his season have unfolded, if he hadn't crashed into the wall. on that fateful April 17? At the time of the injury, he was hitting .410 with five home-runs in 11 games. Since he came back? .196 with nine home-runs in 78 games, going into today. It's the latter that concerns us here: the real problem is the time missed through injury. His current pace would have made this very close to an "Over" bet, if he hadn't had to sit out an entire month.
Jason Kubel - Total HR's 20½ (2409-500). Pace: 32 - OVER, BOOK CLOSED
This one has remained firmly shut for more than a month, since Kubel hit his 21st home-run on July 22nd, with more than two months of the season left. He had a relatively quiet August by his standards, with only four home-runs, but powerwise, has still turned into the guy I thought he was when he was signed. . Expectations will be a little different in 2013, but for now, take it to the bank,
Aaron Hill - Total HR's 17½ (200-5323). Pace: 24 - OVER, BOOK CLOSED
An excellent period for Hill, taking the pitcher deep seven times since we last reported. His 18th long-ball came in the opener of the double-header against Miami on August 22nd, part of a nine-game spell where his line was .382/.447/.971, with six HR in 34 at-bats. At .858, he's the only National League player at his position with an OPS over .800, and one wonders if a Gold Glove might be in his future too.
Ian Kennedy -Total Wins 14½ (3800-700). Pace: 14 - UNDER
Daniel Hudson - Total Wins 13½ (4858-100). Pace: 3 - UNDER, BOOK CLOSED
Trevor Cahill - Total Wins 12½ (2000-100). Pace: 11 - UNDER
The two changes to take place since we last checked are here: after Kennedy and Cahill crossed the line from under to over last time, they both dropped back below it since. It's still close, particularly in Kennedy's case, where the projected line is 14.4. He needs three wins in maybe five or six starts down the stretch to clinch. Cahill, however, failed to win at all in August,. going 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA over this period: his best start unfortunately coincided with a day the offense failed to show up until the ninth (two homers giving us the W in St. Louis). Now needing four wins, this seems less likely.
J.J. Putz - Total Saves 35½ (350-3193). Pace: 34 - UNDER
This one could go to the wire, and as we'll see, will likely decide the fate of the betting crown. While still under pace, and despite blowing one today, Putz picked up eight saves to take him to 28: if he repeats that performance over the final month, he'll reach a total of 36, just breaking the bookie's hearts. He hasn't allowed a run in 24 consecutive appearances, so there's not much doubt about his performance. But will there be enough suitable situations in the remaining 27 games to give him the eight saves he needs?
Let's put it all together, update the standings, and see what we find.
|Dallas D'back Fan||-1,500|
|4 Corners Fan||-1,500|
'Hacks retains the lead, having got all his ducks in a row. However, he staked close to his whole enchilada on Putz not making it to 36 saves: if that happens, his +1,500 will turn to -900, and he'll be washing dishes at the SnakePit Virtual Sports Book to make ends meet. Last month's runner up, AzDbackfanInDc, experienced exactly that, as his heavy wager on Kennedy no longer is on pace to come in for him. deerhaven's pessimism is still standing in good stead: he also bet on Putz, but to a much smaller extent, and a top three finish seems likely assured.