Today's game marked the two-thirds point of the 2012 campaign, which means it's time to check the standings in our betting competition, wagered using real SnakePit Dollars at the start of the season by a selection of our readers. Last time, we closed the book on Daniel Hudson, and our bettors were severely in the hole to the odds-makers in Vegas, having over-estimated most aspects of the Diamondbacks, and Justin Upton in particular. Have things improved any over the 27 games since?
As before, for each wager, I'll give you the original projection, then in brackets, how much SnakePit money went on each side of the line, with the first amount being the total bet on the D-backs being over that line. Then, there's the current pace, based on numbers through the end of game #108 on Sunday, and whether that will end up being over or under the projected line.
Diamondbacks Wins: 86½ (5550-1100). Pace: 82 - UNDER
At the time of the last update, I noted that we needed to play .600 ball to reach this line, which was then sitting at just 78 wins. The Diamondbacks have certainly done that, Then, I said reaching this one "Doesn't seem likely." Though we still need to play better, it's certainly more plausible than it was at the half-way point, with the projected tally up by four from that stage. The pace the rest of the way now needs to be 32-22 for us to get over the line, which is doable, if not exactly easy.
Justin Upton - BA: .290 (1517-900). Pace: .277 - UNDER
- Total HR's 29½ (2850-200). Pace: 13½ - UNDER
Justin Upton - Total RBI's 90½ (800-100). Pace: 67½ - UNDER
Upton's recovery continues, as his season average is up 14 points since last time, and there's actually a possibility he may make it up to the line over the final 54 games. That remains a remote piece of optimism with regard to the other two lines, however: both his homers and RBI have failed to move the needle since last time, both in fact inching fractionally lower. Which is slightly strange, as it was the average people were least confident about, going by where the money went.
Chris Young - Total HR's 22½ (1350-900). Pace: 16½ - UNDER
Not much change, with CY having had three home-runs over the 27 games since we last checked. That did increase the pace slightly, but not enough. He still needs 12 in the last third of the season to make this a winning proposition for those betting on the over, and that seems unlikely. If it hadn't been for the time off, he might still have a chance: as is, this is looking fairly unlikely, albeit not so much as Upton's production lines.
Jason Kubel - Total HR's 20½ (2409-500). Pace: 34½ - OVER, BOOK CLOSED
Kubel hit his 21st home-run of the season, closing the book for this one on July 22nd, in the Diamondbacks 95th game. The book on this was not so much closed, as slammed shut, brought to the register, bought, taken home, read and placed on a coffee-table in the living-room. Guess the SnakePit weren't the only ones guilty of underestimating Kubel, the Vegas odds-makers were right there with us.
Aaron Hill - Total HR's 17½ (200-5323). Pace: 19½ - OVER
Homerin' Hill hasn't been quite as home-run happy of late, adding a pair to his season tally over the past month. That's less than needed, but he is still on pace to reach the mark with a little room to spare. He has hit close to .300 over that time, not that it really matters, but has still been giving the Diamondbacks very solid production for a second-basenan.
Ian Kennedy -Total Wins 14½ (3800-700). Pace: 15 - OVER
Daniel Hudson - Total Wins 13½ (4858-100). Pace: 3 - UNDER, BOOK CLOSED
Trevor Cahill - Total Wins 12½ (2000-100). Pace: 13½ - OVER
This is where the changes have taken place in the betting since last time, with both Kennedy and Cahill crossing the line from under to over. Kennedy has done particularly well, picking up four wins in five attempts since we last checked. That had a large positive impact on numbers, because the SnakePit dollars were heavily on his side of the line. Though Cahill was robbed of a victory this afternoon by the meltdown of David Hernandez, he has still picked up three victories and needs only four more to lock this down.
J.J. Putz - Total Saves 35½ (350-3193). Pace: 30 - UNDER
Putz's problem continues to be less his performance - he hasn't allowed a run since June 19, holding opposing batters to a .355 OPS - and more a lack of save opportunities. Since the All-Star break he has only four saves to his name, simply because those are the only four opportunities the Diamondbacks have had: even if they've won 13 times, most of those have been relative blowouts..
Let's put it all together, update the standings, and see what we find.
|Dallas D'back Fan||-1,300|
|4 Corners Fan||-1,500|
Diamondhacks continues to lead, his large wager on Putz's saves keeping him at the front of the pack. However, surging up close behind him in second is AzDbackfanInDc, who benefited from the turnaround in Kennedy's line, on which he'd placed an equally-large wager. But 'hacks can also bank on Kubel's line, where he had bet the over, so that's money in the bank for him now. That shift in Kennedy's line helped significantly, with our collective debt down to just below nine thousand dollars, a definite improvement in the $15,000 it was. 4 Corners Fan is also now the only bettor to be losing all their money/