FanPost

Ian Kennedy: An Inconvenient Truth

Overall, the trade that brought Ian Kennedy to the Diamondbacks has to be considered a success, recent struggles notwithstanding. Since being traded for Max Scherzer, Ian has fared well in head to head comparisons

IPK: 78 GS, 35-20, 497 IP, 3.47 ERA, 119 ERA+, 1.172 WHIP, 7.8 WAR

Max: 77 GS, 32-24, 461 IP 4.24 ERA, 98 ERA+, 1.343 WHIP, 3.7 WAR

And of course they flipped Edwin Jackson for Daniel Hudson, which for a season and a half worked out great so far, and is already a win, even if Hudson is struggling at the moment.

However, a HUGE chunk of Ian's success has come against the generally weaker hitting NL West teams, and when pitching against non NL West teams, he has been mediocre

W L G GS CG INN H R ER HR BB SO ERA AVG OBP SLG OPS
Total 35 20 78 78 1 497.1 438 200 192 55 145 441 3.47 .237 .297 .391 .688
vs. NL 33 14 69 69 1 442 371 159 151 44 127 395 3.07 .228 .290 .376 .666
vs. AL 2 6 9 9 0 55.1 67 41 41 11 18 46 6.67 .299 .352 .500 .852
Non NLW 18 15 43 43 1 273.1 258 130 128 37 78 222 4.22
W L G GS CG INN H R ER HR BB SO ERA AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. NL West 17 5 35 35 0 224 180 70 64 18 67 219 2.57 .220 .280 .353 .634
vs. NL East 9 4 18 18 1 115 97 38 38 14 37 91 2.97 .230 .300 .394 .695
vs. NL Central 7 5 16 16 0 103 94 51 49 12 23 85 4.28 .242 .299 .404 .702
vs. AL Central 2 2 5 5 0 32.2 36 18 18 7 5 23 4.96 .281 .306 .477 .783
vs. AL East 0 2 2 2 0 11.1 11 10 10 1 10 13 7.94 .256 .411 .395 .806
vs. AL West 0 2 2 2 0 11.1 20 13 13 3 3 10 10.32 .377 .404 .642 1.045

And even when you break down that performance further, you find that Ian's success in the NL West is primarily against the Padres and Giants: In 20 starts he is 12-2, with a 1.99 ERA. http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/hbeqE

So you have the following:

Vs Giants and Padres = All Time Great

Vs NL West = All Star

Vs NL East = Solid # 2 Starter

Vs. NL Central = Mediocre innings eater

Vs. AL Central = # 5 Starter, replacement level pitcher

Vs. AL East and West = Terrible, just terrible

I don't know why he struggles vs. AL teams so much. The difference in the quality of the leagues, which is real, and the DH when in AL parks, do not account for his terrible numbers vs. the AL the last 3 years. It was said when he was traded to us that he did not have the stuff to pitch in the AL or AL East. But that doesn't make sense. Not based on watching him pitch. I wish I knew the answer, so I could tell him before his upcoming start against the Angels this weekend.

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