SnakeBytes, 2/4: Super Bowl Saturday Edition
by Jim McLennan on Feb 4, 2012 1:00 PM EST
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PrintTrust you are all getting your hot-dogs and burgers ready for tomorrow's televisual treat, which has been eagerly anticipated all year. I refer, of course, t the Super Bowl Commercials. I just think it's a shame they choose to interrupt them with some boring game or other. Still, you've got to go to the bathroom sometime, I guess. More on that tomorrow, with our traditional OT Commercial thread. Meanwhile, here's some stuff about the Diamondbacks.
Team news
- [AZCentral] Diamondbacks taking it slow with Stephen Drew - "I would imagine we'll have to take it rather slowly with him in spring training," Towers said last week. "I'm hopeful he'll play in some games in spring training. Will he play in our opening game? I don't know. I haven't laid eyes on him other than to see him on video doing some agility drills. We'll have a better idea probably at the end of February"
- [dbacks.com] General manager Kevin Towers hosts web chat - Towers reviews Moneyball: "We had seven hours before our flight left Tampa so those of us in baseball ops decide to watch it. Liked Brad Pitt but didn't care much for the movie. I didn't like the way it portrayed scouts."
- [BBTF] 2012 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks - Best line: "Having John McDonald, Geoff Blum, and Willie Bloomquist all signed to major league contracts is the equivalent of designing a jumbo jet to have one engine and no mechanical backups to the landing gear but making sure there are 3 backup fridges in the galley to hold cans of soda." I also note, Jason Kubel projects for the second-best OPS+ on the team...
- [AZCentral] Hall says he's not looking to leave - "I’m very happy where I’m at and I don’t foresee myself going to another team." Good. The though of him running the Dodgers would be... difficult to bear.
- [FoxSports Arizona[ Questions to consider in the NL West - Jack Magruder asks, "Will Arizona's career years carry over? Can San Francisco's offense make its pitching staff proud?"
- [FanGraphs] Estimating a Miguel Montero Extension - Suggestion is he'll produce about $55 million of value over the years 2012-14. Don't think he'll get paid quite that much..
- [Ballpark Digest] 2011 Ballpark of the Year: Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. - "In a year that saw several noteworthy new ballparks, one stood out as a way that fundamentally rethought how a spring-training facility should work."
- [AZCentral] What needs to go right for the Diamondbacks - And the winner of the 'Bleacher Report Cheap Page Views Padding' award for the week, goes to...
- [Tucson Citizen] What needs to go right for the Diamondbacks - Oh, look: here's the one-page version. Suck it, AZ Central...
Team news (less)
- [MLive.com] In hypothetical trade, former GM Jim Bowden highlights an ideal target for Detroit Tigers In an ESPN Insider piece, Bowden proposed sending Gerardo Parra to the Tigers for OF Andy Dirks, UT Don Kelly and LHP Andy Oliver. Justin Rogers takes a look at the deal, and since he's not behind a pay-wall,he gets the link love!
- [MLB.com] Memories remain: Don Baylor's 1979 Angels magical - "Even now, Don Baylor can hardly walk around this city without being stopped by fans eager to chat with him, take a picture alongside him or simply say they met the man most responsible for their first taste of postseason baseball more than 30 years ago. "
- [CBS Pittsburgh] Bucs: Pirates Sign Juan Cruz - A minor league contract and gave him an invitation to spring training.
- [Yahoo!] Dodgers, White Sox to play spring game in Tucson - It's on March 23, and as before, will benefit the Christina-Taylor Green Foundation.
- [baseballhall.org] Baseball Hall of Fame Internship Program Provides Opportunity of a Lifetime - The chance to spend the summer in Cooperstown is every baseball fan's dream. Unfortunately, apps closed January 31st, so you're probably stuck in Arizona instead.
- [The Onion] 1,000 'Bleacher Report' Writers Descend On Super Bowl Media Day - "I asked Tom Bardy [sic] where he thought he should be on my list of the top 10 guys to ever play in the Super Bowl, and he said it didn't sound like I had anyone who played before 2005," And speaking of Bleacher Report, so is the Onion...
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Oh man
The comment board on that Parra trade piece is hysterical.
I’d trade Raburn from Parra straight up, but none of that three-for-one nonsense for a guy whose stolen base totals in those three years you speak of were 5, 1 and 15.
Why is it people are in love with a guy (Parra) who hit .260 in 2010 and ready to throw Jackson (over .300 that same season) in the trash?
Lollerblades!
Honestly, Arizona has no reason to want any of the pieces going back to them in that proposed deal. Dirks is a downgrade on Parra, Kelly gives us yet another position player that we don’t have a roster spot for and Kelly’s versatility is redundant with Bloomquist around, and Oliver is, what, our fifth-best pitching prospect, behind Bauer, Skaggs, Archie, and Chafin? Lower, i.e. maybe behind some of Miley, Corbin, and Holmberg as well? If Detroit has a top middle infield prospect or catching prospect, it becomes a conversation, but they just don’t have the assets we would want.
The best of all, though, goes to:
I don’t think Arizona would make a trade for those three. Throw in Inge tho & they will jump at it.
I want to say that this has to be sarcasm, but you can truly never know…
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Feb 4, 2012 1:28 PM EST reply actions
I don't even pay attention to baseball fans on the internet
unless they’re on SB nation or sometimes MLBTR.
They’re just so ignorant about any team beside their own or the AL East.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
You mean...
there is baseball outside the AL East? Huh. Who knew?
sententia Platonis semper in ore illius fuit, florere civitates si aut philosophi imperarent aut imperantes philosopharentur
How many WS's has the NL East been in in the last 2 years?
"Hey, why don't you people watch the game?"-my mom after viewing a wave going around Chase Field.
by Reynolds rapper on Feb 5, 2012 1:31 AM EST up reply actions
"NOT ENOUGH!"
-ESPN
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Feb 5, 2012 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
That's
not really saying all that much…
isitspringtrainingyet.com
by imstillhungry95 on Feb 5, 2012 10:53 AM EST up reply actions
“Bauer, Skaggs, Archie, and Chafin?”
Seeing their names typed out like that makes me miss seeing Jarrod Parker in there. :(
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Feb 4, 2012 4:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
+1
but now, when we type out our rotation, we can type “IPK, Hudson, Cahill…..”
it’s going to take a little while getting used to, but i think we’ll be reasonably happy with Cahill
For sure.
I’m excited about Cahill, but it will be bittersweet watching Parker in Oakland. It’s like they say, though: a good trade hurts and helps both teams.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Feb 4, 2012 5:36 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Wait, Parra can hit leadoff? - from the article
Gerrado Parra would shore up the Tigers defense in the outfield and give the team another option for leadoff hitter.
I got nothin'.
I don't know
I don’t pay attention to baseball east of the Mississippi.
sententia Platonis semper in ore illius fuit, florere civitates si aut philosophi imperarent aut imperantes philosopharentur
West Coast Bias?
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Feb 5, 2012 6:35 PM EST up reply actions
It could be worse
I don’t pay attention to baseball outside of the NL West
isitspringtrainingyet.com
by imstillhungry95 on Feb 5, 2012 8:54 PM EST up reply actions
I don't see why he couldn't.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Feb 5, 2012 10:28 PM EST up reply actions
Commercial thread?!
Awesome! This means I won’t be over on chess.com discussing the commercials like I was last year!
isitspringtrainingyet.com
Last year's commercial thread was fun
It’s also fun to see that my totally rational hate for the Steelers has evolved over the past year.
Founder of the 'Foundation for the Advancement of Clefoing' a 501C3
Well that's good
It would be horrible if it hadn’t, or worse, lessened
isitspringtrainingyet.com
by imstillhungry95 on Feb 4, 2012 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
Man,
That Upton projection screams low to me, as do his extrapolated career statistics. Overbay seems optimistic, but I like it – he’d have gobs of value if he could be a league-average bat off the bench. Bullpen ERA’s seem a bit high. Shaw in particular is a guy I’d expect a sub-4 ERA from, but that’s mostly because of just watching his pitches, not staring at the numbers for too long.
That’s a nuts projection on Bauer. Not saying it isn’t possible, but it’s nuts. In the awesome way.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Feb 4, 2012 1:47 PM EST reply actions
ZIPS is finally out!
Upton – Projection looks low to me. I think last year’s BABIP was a bit fluky, and probably hurt a little by how Upton was trying to get used to a new approach early in the year. I think Upton should be around a 900 OPS.
Kubel/Goldschmidt – I think these are pretty reasonable projections.
Montero – Projection is just a smidge low for me. I think slight upticks in BA, OBP, and SLG will bring his wRC+ to around 110 next year.
Chris Young – Project is reasonable to me.
Stephen Drew – The more I hear about Stephen Drew, the less likely I feel he will be ready until a couple of months in. And even when he gets back, I think league average offense is too optimistic, considering he’s just starting to swing the bat again right now. He’s the guy I worry about the most.
Pitching – The pitching projections are pretty much exactly what I envisioned. I think Saunders is being underrated somewhat (I see a 4.2-4.3 ERA from Saunders) but I tink IPK, Cahill, and Collmenter’s projections are spot on. I think Hudson has a chance to do a little better than that projection, but there’s not much to argue there.
Bauer – I know this is going to sound crazy, but I actually think Bauer’s projection is too low. I know rookie pitchers tend to not do that well, and even Tim Lincecum had an ERA of 4 in his rookie season. However, that ERA is really misleading. For one, Lincecum’s peripherals were a lot better than his final ERA line. Also, it hides the fact that of Lincecum’s 146 IP in the majors, it was the last 40 IP that really hurt his ERA, as he had an ERA of 5 during that time. Simply put, it’s likely that he tired out, and also got a little unlucky. There’s no need to rush Bauer, because of how solid our opening day rotation is. If we keep him in the minors for half the season, and call him up for 15 starts after that, I could really see a 3.50-3.60 ERA season. Especially since he shouldn’t have the same “tire out at the end of season” problem as Lincecum due to his workout regime.
Bullpen – Projection is sick. And there’s not really anything I disagree with in the projections. Shaw’s projection might be a little low. Even so, assuming ZIPS, we’ll have a ridiculously dominant bullpen, with seven guys all above league average. And if there ends up being injuries, we’d still have Evan Marshall and Kevin Munson to back us up from the minors (or convert Miley/Brewer/Anderson/Corbin to relief).
Goldie's ZIPPs Projections
.812 OPS with 30 HRs and 32 doubles? I would be doing backflips if he does this. Not that I think he can’t do it, but to project that as the “likely” outcome seems optimistic to me.
by Craig from Az on Feb 4, 2012 8:47 PM EST up reply actions
Hm
If you look at Mark Reynolds’ 2008 year, they were pretty much the same age. Reynolds had 28 2B and 28 HR that year.
I think Goldy should be able to put up those types of power numbers, with a lower strikeout rate and higher walk rate, than what Reynolds did in 2008. In fact, I actually think Goldy should strike out less than what ZIPS is projecting him as.
I saw Moneyball Thursday night on my iPad
I thought it was a really good movie, very entertaining. Yes, scouts got be ‘the bad guys,’ but that’s Hollywood – there always has to be a bad guy. Like that silly movie “Braveheart,” and it’s insistence that Edward II was the bad guy and that William Wallace was the good one…
sententia Platonis semper in ore illius fuit, florere civitates si aut philosophi imperarent aut imperantes philosopharentur
I keep thinking
that I should rent/borrow/just buy it, but I haven’t gotten around to it yet. Maybe I will next week sometime
isitspringtrainingyet.com
by imstillhungry95 on Feb 4, 2012 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
Its more 'human' than I thought it would be
and well worth the time.
sententia Platonis semper in ore illius fuit, florere civitates si aut philosophi imperarent aut imperantes philosopharentur
Also, there is definitely "R" rated language
just be aware of that.
sententia Platonis semper in ore illius fuit, florere civitates si aut philosophi imperarent aut imperantes philosopharentur
Thanks for the heads up
I’ll let my mom know when I ask her to rent it
isitspringtrainingyet.com
by imstillhungry95 on Feb 4, 2012 5:57 PM EST up reply actions
If they actually could have had Pitt speak like Beane
It’d probably have been a lot worse.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Feb 5, 2012 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
Same goes for Lewis’ book – someone had to be painted the villain to make it into a good story, and it happened to be the traditional school of thought. As the rest of the world has caught up to his market inefficiencies, Beane’s reliance on scouts is once again just as significant as anyone else’s in the league. After all, his latest inefficiency is going for high school arms and bats through the draft after the Moneyball draft supposedly touted the merits of drafting solely college guys.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Feb 4, 2012 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
Moneyball has made contributions
I doubt that any experienced exec is going to throw out the baby with the bathwater. One thing I’ve been thinking about is that to me there seems to be an intersection between “Moneyball” and “Scouting;” and that intersection comprises three very important but overlooked components: teaching, learning and thinking.
Good coaching is indispensible. But the player has to be coachable, and have the mental acumen to benefit from coaching, and be able to think on his feet. It seems to me that this is an area that will once again become a focus for GMs and teams looking to get the maximum for their investment.
sententia Platonis semper in ore illius fuit, florere civitates si aut philosophi imperarent aut imperantes philosopharentur
I disagree
I think a good story can be told without good-vs-evil dichotomies. I just find it boring that writers think they can’t write real, true human stories. Instead, they have to put them in neat little packages that keep anyone from thinking about anything. It’s all spoonfed to the audience as some black-and-white situation. It’s a big reason I won’t go see that movie or most major movies. I just don’t have time for lazy storytelling.
by azshadowwalker on Feb 7, 2012 9:28 PM EST up reply actions
i think you're probably right for a story
but it’s exceedingly difficult for a movie
mostly because of time constraints….you have basically 2 hours to try to develop characters. creating stories without simple good-vs-evil is simply too difficult with that time constraint.
by blue bulldog on Feb 7, 2012 10:51 PM EST up reply actions
How can you watch a 2 hour movie on that small screen?
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
a iPad?
That’s not that small. I’ve watched my fair share of movies on the original Video iPod back when they first came out. Not idea,l but more entertaining than actually paying attention in class / at work.
The IPad is only like what...8 inches wide?
It’s hard to really experience a movie with a 10 inch screen. Any movie worth seeing is worth seeing on a decent sized screen. And I’m not talking about Alvin and the Chipmunks.
and you watched a movie on your Ipod? What were you tapped in a mine?
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
When its about two to three feet in front of you
its quite proportional to a big screen TV.
sententia Platonis semper in ore illius fuit, florere civitates si aut philosophi imperarent aut imperantes philosopharentur
Ironically
I was trapped in the box office of a movie theater. It gets pretty boring in there when it’s slow.
*trapped!!!
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
Its very easy
just put on a headset, and the hi def image is great. Its ideal for flying, too. When I travel, I just load it up with movies or programs I want to watch, and voila!
sententia Platonis semper in ore illius fuit, florere civitates si aut philosophi imperarent aut imperantes philosopharentur
Kinda with you on that
I just can’t watch anything longer than a Youtube video on my computer. If I’m traveling, I’ll take my Kindle and read for amusement. Got through 2 1/2 books when going to/from Boston.
It probably is a factor that we watch a lot of subtitled movies, and those can be tough to read on a small screen. Especially the Hong Kong ones which seem to not bother with anti-aliasing.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
Howe is portrayed much differently in the book.
In the book, LaRussa has Howe’s (in the movie) reaction to the Alderson project and Howe is just like “huh”?
"Hey, why don't you people watch the game?"-my mom after viewing a wave going around Chase Field.
by Reynolds rapper on Feb 5, 2012 1:34 AM EST up reply actions
Howe was reportedly upset about how he was portrayed in the movie
Hard to blame him, really.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Feb 5, 2012 10:32 PM EST up reply actions
Oh...you British person you.
Yeah, I’m having friends and family over to watch the handegg celebration.
sententia Platonis semper in ore illius fuit, florere civitates si aut philosophi imperarent aut imperantes philosopharentur
I'm
having a get together with my internet friends on the Commercial thread and that’s about it for me!
isitspringtrainingyet.com
by imstillhungry95 on Feb 4, 2012 6:00 PM EST up reply actions
I might just well tune in a little bit myself
sententia Platonis semper in ore illius fuit, florere civitates si aut philosophi imperarent aut imperantes philosopharentur
I hear
it’s going to be great fun!
isitspringtrainingyet.com
by imstillhungry95 on Feb 5, 2012 10:54 AM EST up reply actions
Man...Bleacher Report...
Talk about a sea of garbage.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Feb 4, 2012 4:29 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Man...that Bardy
can pen quite the harp tune.
sententia Platonis semper in ore illius fuit, florere civitates si aut philosophi imperarent aut imperantes philosopharentur
You should hear him play the lute. I wept openly.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Feb 4, 2012 5:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Are all ZIPS
major league level predictions? Hallberg 3 HR and 55 RBI. Davidson 18 HR and 87 RBI, Krauss 17 and 64? I’ll bet you any amount of money that all three won’t hit those totals.
"Hey, why don't you people watch the game?"-my mom after viewing a wave going around Chase Field.
I guess "tl;dr"?
ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors –
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production – a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
Thanks Jim!
I thought something was amiss.
We have 18 bajillion middle infielders so Hallberg isn’t getting time.
"Hey, why don't you people watch the game?"-my mom after viewing a wave going around Chase Field.
by Reynolds rapper on Feb 5, 2012 11:41 AM EST up reply actions
Don't
we have a few more than that?
isitspringtrainingyet.com
by imstillhungry95 on Feb 5, 2012 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
KT likes his middle infield.
"Hey, why don't you people watch the game?"-my mom after viewing a wave going around Chase Field.
by Reynolds rapper on Feb 5, 2012 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
Pitchers can never have enough defense behind them.
sententia Platonis semper in ore illius fuit, florere civitates si aut philosophi imperarent aut imperantes philosopharentur
that's true
now when can we get the rule changed so that we can get three middle infielders all on the field at the same time?
by blue bulldog on Feb 6, 2012 12:22 AM EST up reply actions
Start Bloomquist
At first in place of Goldie, and then run a really weird shift. That would work. I mean, yeah, everyone from the ’Pit would have a footrace to see who could strangle Gibby first, but at least KT would have his middle infield.
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Feb 6, 2012 1:01 AM EST up reply actions
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