FanPost

Runs, RBI's and Outs


There are a lot of run estimators out there, such as RC or Runs Created used at baseball reference, based off of Bill James work. Or wRC which is the runs created estimator they use at Fangraphs. They are all pretty good at estimating total run contribution. But for many fans they don't feel as "real" as simply adding up things like RBI, or Runs Scored. The less obvious or hidden value of advancing runners, or extending an inning or pitcher pitch count, etc , while clearly valuable, are not as obvious to the average fan not interested in doing the math or distrustful of those that have.

There is a simplistic Run Created stat that came out a long time ago that while far from an "accurate" measure, still gives some idea of run creation value that most fans can grasp easily, as there is no complicated math involved.

That would be RBI + Runs - HR *

*Obviously in this measure you can't double count Homers as both a run and an RBI as you are trying to assess

actual runs put on the board, and they don't give you two on the board when you hit a solo shot.

Here is how the D Backs did in this stat:

Rk Player R_prod
4 Justin Upton 157
7 Aaron Hill 152
2 Paul Goldschmidt 144
1 Miguel Montero 138
6 Jason Kubel 135
9 Willie Bloomquist 70
12 Chris Young 63
10 Ryan Roberts 56
5 Chris Johnson 40
17 John McDonald 32
13 Stephen Drew 27
3 Cody Ransom 22
8 Adam Eaton 22
14 Ryan Wheeler 20
11 Lyle Overbay 19
16 A.J. Pollock 14
15 Henry Blanco 12
18 Jake Elmore 8
19 Josh Bell 6

So those are the raw totals. But there isn't much context there, i.e. how many games, or PA's, or how many OUTS did the player use up to produce those runs.

So lets look at it as a rate as well. I have chosen R-produced / OUT made because I believe you have to at least look as how many of the team's precious 27 outs per game a guy is using up to produce those runs. This is going to give a boost to guys who don't make too many outs obviously. But I think thats correct. Out in baseball are bad, (for the offense), M Kay ?

Rk Player R_prod Out Rate
1 Miguel Montero 138 362 .381
2 Paul Goldschmidt 144 379 .380
3 Cody Ransom 22 58 .379
4 Justin Upton 157 414 .379
5 Chris Johnson 40 111 .360
6 Jason Kubel 135 390 .346
7 Aaron Hill 152 445 .342
8 Adam Eaton 22 66 .333
9 Willie Bloomquist 70 241 .290
10 Ryan Roberts 56 202 .277
11 Lyle Overbay 19 71 .268
12 Chris Young 63 257 .245
13 Stephen Drew 27 111 .243
14 Ryan Wheeler 20 87 .230
15 Henry Blanco 12 53 .226
16 A.J. Pollock 14 65 .215
17 John McDonald 32 152 .211
18 Jake Elmore 8 56 .143
19 Josh Bell 6 46 .130

Insert the obligatory "Cody Ransom" snark here. (Jim......? Anybody home ? )

Seriously, obviously I am somewhat pimping Justin Upton today. And I'm not trying to be too subtle. The thought process here is simple. If you are into RBI, as context dependent as they are, then you should be equally into Runs Scored, as getting on base a lot, and running the bases well to put yourself in a position to score is just as valuable as getting the hit that drives the runner home. And doing these things without using up too many of the team outs is a good thing.

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