Diamondbacks Report Card: Ian Kennedy

by Marc Fournier on Jan 13, 2012 10:18 PM EST in Diamondbacks Features

Name: Ian Kennedy
Age on Opening Day: 26
Salary: $414,000
2011 Stats: 33 games, 220 IP, 2.88 ERA, 21-4, 198:55 K:BB
2010 Stats: 32 games, 194 IP, 3.80 ERA, 9-10, 167:70 K:BB

A year ago, (2010, that is, let's not get technical) Ian Kennedy stealthily crept into the Diamondbacks rotation and posted a 3.80 ERA with nearly 200 innings pitched. Many writers and scholars alike pointed at his .256 BABIP and poor walk rate as a means to believe in regression.

Bill James churned out his projection for 2011 soon after and shunned the idea of regression with a projection of a 3.66 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 176 K. Not bad for someone who suddenly became the team's "ace" after the departed Dan Haren and Brandon Webb. What we actually got in 2011, well, long story short is... he was good.

Sometimes it only takes a few words to sum up how a season went for a player. This quote comes from a man named Rick Doyle of NESN on the eve of the end of the season...

Kennedy's WPA (win probability added), which is a system that essentially measures a pitcher's ability to help his team win, stands at 5.23. That's the best such mark in the majors -- even higher than Justin Verlander's 5.16.

source

Really. End of story. Ian Kennedy has significantly helped turnaround the team's success since 2010. I know I'm only here to grade this past season but it can't be stressed enough how important he has been. Plus, he has a beard. AWESOME. See for yourself:

Your browser does not support iframes.

Kennedy started the season strong with two strong quality outings before imploding in a game against the Cardinals. Yeah, it's not just you, I completely forgot about that game too. Ian left that game after only three innings, allowing 9 runs off of 7 hits and 2 walks. A couple of weeks later, this happened:

Your browser does not support iframes.

That outing pretty much set the tone for the rest of the season. Even better is the fact that he totally showed up Cliff Lee in that game. Booya, Philly. Kennedy went on to post a 3.44 ERA in the first half of the season (as well as getting snubbed for the All-Star Game) and followed that up by recording an insane 2.11 ERA after the All-Star break. He was among the top NL leading pitchers in nearly every category at the end of the season. He had the 4th best WAR (5.5), 7th best ERA (2.88), tied for 1st with 21 wins, 6th best WHIP (1.08), 8th most strikeouts (198) and more. Not to mention he was also 4th on the Cy Young balloting.

Kennedy saw some of his magic disappear in the NLCS against the Brewers, most notably taking two of the three losses. He allowed six extra-base hits in the series and never quite showed off that "ace-ness" that he had flaunted throughout the season. All in all, Kennedy topped off a surprise season for the D-backs by one-upping that with an even surpriseier one himself. He posted career highs in nearly every category and he dropped his BB% while improving his K%. That's a recipe that is sugary sweet.

Grade: A

Other SnakePit grades

Jim: B+
Well, he didn't win the Cy Young, did he? That's what we expect from Arizona aces. Apart from that and a disappointing playoff performance, this was a magical season, made all the better by the knowledge that the Yankees could really have used Kennedy this year. Instead, we had one of the best pitchers in the majors, for a song. I was particularly impressed how he got better as the season went on - It was almost as if he took the All-Star snub personally, a 2.11 ERA during the second-half was third-best in the majors. The D-backs rotation should be a thing of beauty going forward, and Kennedy stands at its center.

Tweet Comment 51 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

A-

Kennedy’s numbers weren’t eye-popping, but they were very good. A 20+ win season can’t be ignored nowadays, either.

The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.

by Stupendous Man on Jan 13, 2012 10:20 PM EST via mobile reply actions

A

Geez, what does a guy have to do to get an A from you guys? Did anybody expect anything near what we got? Did we pay for anything near what we got? There’s no pitcher in all of baseball who wouldn’t be pleased with putting up a season like IPK did last year. More of the same next year, please.

by Craig from Az on Jan 13, 2012 10:27 PM EST reply actions

I give IPK an A

I think he had a fantastic year and despite not winning the Cy Young, his numbers do reflect a really good season from our ace. I think he should applauded for his season of 2011.

I miss you Bazooka Joe!!!

Rockkstarr12: 2011 Bryman School Graduate & Die-hard Diamondback/Rockie Fan

by Rockkstarr12 on Jan 13, 2012 11:21 PM EST reply actions

B+ Jim ?

Wow….glad you weren’t by 8th grade English teacher……

A Sub 3 ERA in 220 IP calling Chase Field your home, and a long sustained dominant stretch down the stretch is an A, as in ACE.

There were 150 rotation spots in the majors last year, and 93 starters reached the minimum threshold to qualify for ERA Title: Any way you slice it, there were not more than 10-11 starting pitchers in all of MLB better than Kennedy last year.

MLB RANKS

IP 222 (15th)
ERA 2.88 (t11th)
ERA+ 137 (12th)
WAR 5.5 (11th)
Quality Starts 24 (t10th)

And of course wns, 21, t 2nd)

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Jan 13, 2012 11:44 PM EST reply actions

As noted

I was a little disappointed by his post-season performance. Don’t forget, we’re also grading based on expectations – Kennedy was our Opening Day starter, so the bar for anticipated performance, in my mind, was higher than for any other pitcher on the roster. He still surpassed that, but it’s just a shame one of those wins couldn’t have come in the NLDS…

"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"

by Jim McLennan on Jan 14, 2012 11:02 AM EST up reply actions

So based on 1 post season start

You would only give Justin Verlander or Cliff Lee a B+ ?

Stange to me…but to each his own grading system.

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Jan 15, 2012 1:04 AM EST up reply actions

fwiw

i saw something once, where IPK was compared with Kershaw, and IPK was significantly less effective than Kershaw was against actually good hitters (like, NL Top 25 hitters)

which is somewhat what you would expect from a guy who lives off of really good command, as opposed to really good raw stuff

i would probably still give IPK an A, but i also still don’t really consider him an “ace” (in the sense of, would i feel comfortable starting him opposite the other really elite pitchers in baseball)

fwiw though, Roy Halladay had the same problem, and he’s almost universally considered an ace

by blue bulldog on Jan 15, 2012 4:19 AM EST up reply actions

Difference between grading 2011 results and projecting future

The info you present might be good evidence that IPK may have just peaked in terms of results. The odds are actually pretty hight that he did.

But I think these grades are meant to grade 2011 season performance

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Jan 15, 2012 9:08 AM EST up reply actions

sure i agree

i’d probably still give him an A

just wanted to bring up that random point

by blue bulldog on Jan 15, 2012 2:59 PM EST up reply actions

Not so random

Actually goes to the core of the issues people had with IPK. His stuff is not as good as a guy like Kershaw, (or Halladay). But it’s good enough to get out most hitters. The fact that the very best hitters do better against him than they do against a guy like Kershaw is completely congruous.

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Jan 15, 2012 3:54 PM EST up reply actions

[Shrug]

If Cliff Lee’s performances were likely the deciding factor in his team being knocked out, sure. One-hitting the Pirates is nice, but to be blunt, Kennedy just didn’t have anything like his A-game when the team needed it most – by Game Score, 30 of his 33 regular-season performances were better than the 44 in the NLDS opener, and the 4.26 ERA over both post-season starts (not one), was more than twice the ERA he allowed in the second half of the regular season.

I’m pretty sure Kennedy himself would tell you he was disappointed with his playoff games, and I was too.

"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"

by Jim McLennan on Jan 17, 2012 2:19 AM EST up reply actions

I'm sure that he was disappointed, but most of the ERA was

from the one game, and as I wrote in the comments below, with added clarifications:

Considering that the team was only able to produce a single run
in that game, and pitching (being left in to pitch, with a rested bullpen) the seventh, after 3 long fly balls and a run in the sixth with a mid 90s pitch count at that point, would mitigate his responsibility for the loss in my mind.

In retrospect the only way that game gets won would have been to hit for Kennedy in the ~~fifth~~ sixth, get a run, and let the bullpen do it’s job.

Leave any starter in long enough, and he will fail.

"Me, I romp and stomp Thankful as I romp
Without freedom of speech I might be in the swamp" B. Dylan

by xmet on Jan 17, 2012 6:01 AM EST up reply actions

To suggest IPK's NLDS performance

was ‘likely the deciding factor’ in the series seems unfair on many levels.

The Dbacks totaled a whopping three runs in his pair of starts (but managed to plate 22 in the three other games). That “decided” or influenced Game 1 & 5 losses, as much or more than, Kennedy’s isolated performance.

He’s pitching in an incredibly challenging environment, on the road both times, against one of the best lineups and home clubs, anchored by a PED fueled MVP freak – who went 5 for 7 against him. Why isnt Milwaukee’s superior lineup, home dominance or Braun’s artificial “performance” the deciding factor?

The Brewers played six home games this postseason, against us and the Cardinals. Kennedy’s 44 game score that you’re grumbling about was actually the second highest mark of the six. And his 57 in the finale was the highest, by far. He had the two highest game scores among visiting starters.

We’re all disappointed that didnt translate into a win, but that’s different than being disappointed with Kennedy, even a little bit. Prior to the NLDS gauntlet, he threw more innings than he ever had, and a good deal more (222) than he has pounds on his body (190). And prior to that, when he was annointed opening day starter to more than a few snickers, this 26 year old had a total of ten mlb wins to his name. Let’s not judge the kid as if he’s Roy Halladay.

Reporters asked the Phillies' skipper how his pitcher had managed to injure himself in his sleep. "I don’t know," Manuel said. "I didn’t sleep with him."

by Diamondhacks on Jan 17, 2012 12:13 PM EST up reply actions

Man, it's like I gave the kid an F or something

Let’s keep some perspective here. I gave our Opening Day starter – the man expected to be our best pitcher from the very start of the season – a B+. That’s a “well above expectations”. I think you’re missing the forest for the trees.

That aside, none of the other pitchers the Brewers faced in Milwaukee was the staff ace – they saw Hudson, plus the Cardinals’ #3 by ERA, Jaime Garcia, and their highly-mediocre #4, Edwin Jackson twice. Kennedy should be the best of that bunch, any day.

"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"

by Jim McLennan on Jan 17, 2012 12:53 PM EST up reply actions

Hey Marc

Just wondering, but did you have a previous screen name? You seem to have been around for a while but I don’t think I recognize your name.

by CaptainCanuck on Jan 14, 2012 12:19 AM EST via mobile reply actions

Formerly

Sprankton.

Wear your own fur.

by Marc Fournier on Jan 14, 2012 1:09 AM EST up reply actions

Ah

Hi, you. Awesome first name, btw.

by CaptainCanuck on Jan 14, 2012 1:39 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Was wondering this too.

I got nothin'.

by Bcawz on Jan 14, 2012 2:38 PM EST up reply actions

A

Kennedy’s a late first round pick, but many, perhaps most, didnt quite see him as ‘ace’ or Opening Day material. He wound up the second best pitcher in the division, behind Kershaw. Having the second best pitcher in the division is a really big deal.

Shares initials with this double Dback draftee and Ish Kabibble

Reporters asked the Phillies' skipper how his pitcher had managed to injure himself in his sleep. "I don’t know," Manuel said. "I didn’t sleep with him."

by Diamondhacks on Jan 14, 2012 12:49 AM EST reply actions

holy crap

i never knew Ian Kinsler was from ASU

by blue bulldog on Jan 15, 2012 4:21 AM EST up reply actions

Well, briefly

he transfered to Missouri

Founder of the 'Foundation for the Advancement of Clefoing' a 501C3

by Clefo on Jan 15, 2012 8:30 AM EST up reply actions

A

The performance stands on its own, but you couple that with how cost-effective Kennedy was and it’s an easy A. The only reason it’s not a plus in my mind is that I feel like he’s due for a bit of regression, but … it’s a good problem to have.

by Azreous on Jan 14, 2012 1:12 AM EST reply actions

A+

Like Shoe said, plus a + for WPA.

"At times I think there are no words
But these to tell me what's true
There are no truths outside The Gates of Eden." B. Dylan

by xmet on Jan 14, 2012 8:11 AM EST reply actions

The correct answer is A+.

But sabrematricians will say that I overvalue winz.

"Hey, why don't you people watch the game?"-my mom after viewing a wave going around Chase Field.

by Reynolds rapper on Jan 14, 2012 10:48 AM EST reply actions

A

Come on, did you WATCH this season?

Henry J for rookie of the year 2030

by mrssoco on Jan 14, 2012 2:42 PM EST reply actions

....no

I’ve just been bluffing my way through all of this! And I would have gotten away with it, too, if it weren’t for you meddling kids!

"Never ignore a coincidence. Unless you're busy, in which case always ignore a coincidence."

by kishi on Jan 14, 2012 9:29 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

rec'd

by blue bulldog on Jan 15, 2012 4:21 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

A-

Higher grades to league champions and world series champions.

sententia Platonis semper in ore illius fuit, florere civitates si aut philosophi imperarent aut imperantes philosopharentur

by NASCARbernet on Jan 14, 2012 6:10 PM EST reply actions

individual grades or team grades ?

You are saying nobody in baseball deserves an A unless their team makes it to the world series ?

Wow tough crowd.

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Jan 14, 2012 6:26 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

HIGH GRADES ARE FOR WINNERS

DO IT AGAIN AND DO IT RIGHT OR NO DINNER! NO WIRE HANGERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Founder of the 'Foundation for the Advancement of Clefoing' a 501C3

by Clefo on Jan 14, 2012 6:53 PM EST up reply actions

I'm the Grade Inflation Grinch

sententia Platonis semper in ore illius fuit, florere civitates si aut philosophi imperarent aut imperantes philosopharentur

by NASCARbernet on Jan 17, 2012 7:27 PM EST up reply actions

I cant believe there isn't a thread about

Kuroda going to the ny team

by AzDbackfanInDc on Jan 14, 2012 7:26 PM EST reply actions

It's

here.

"At times I think there are no words
But these to tell me what's true
There are no truths outside The Gates of Eden." B. Dylan

by xmet on Jan 14, 2012 8:21 PM EST up reply actions

A+

magnifico

"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung

by txzona on Jan 14, 2012 7:40 PM EST reply actions

for $414,000 he is an A+

Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all

by Rickfansince76 on Jan 14, 2012 9:36 PM EST reply actions

I'll give him an A

he did lose a start in the NLDS, which I do count against this grade, but not as much as Jim appearantly does

isitspringtrainingyet.com

by imstillhungry95 on Jan 14, 2012 11:49 PM EST reply actions

Considering that the team was only able to produce a single run

in that game, and pitching the seventh, after 3 long fly balls and a run in the sixth with a mid 90s pitch count at that point, would mitigate his responsibility for the loss in my mind.

In retrospect the only way that game gets won would have been to hit for Kennedy in the fifth, get a run, and let the bullpen do it’s job.

"At times I think there are no words
But these to tell me what's true
There are no truths outside The Gates of Eden." B. Dylan

by xmet on Jan 15, 2012 6:39 AM EST up reply actions