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Miguel Montero extension?

by shibum78 on Sep 8, 2011 1:55 PM EDT

After reading this earlier today, it got me interested in what a fair contract extension for Miguel Montero would be after this season.

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/articles/2011/09/06/20110906arizona-diamondbacks-notes-catcher-montero-eager-stay.html

What's difficult is that there haven't been any players similar to Miggy in terms of performance relative to age and experience that have received contract extensions. The two contracts that I looked at, for comparison sake however, was the one that Brian McCann signed in 2007 and Victor Martinez signed while he was still with the Indians in 2005. I know some may say it's a stretch to compare Montero to Martinez and McCann, but even though Montero's bat isn't on par with the others, I think his overall game with his improving defense (which is probably better than McCann and Martinez ever were) and leadership (for people that believe in the importance of "veteran" leadership) make Montero their equal. In fact, Montero's fWAR is 3.8 compared to McCann's 3.7 this year.

When the 2005 season began, Victor Martinez was going into his 2nd full year as a major leaguer (age 26 at the time) and signed a 5 year deal that included a club option for a 6th year. The deal included a $1mil bonus and salaries of $500K (2005), $800K (2006), $3mil (2007), $4.25mil (2008), $5.7mil (2009), and club option for $7mil (2010). He was not eligible for salary arbitration until 2006.

When the 2007 season began, Brian McCann was in a similar situation as Martinez, 2nd year player (age 23 at the time) and signed a 6 year deal that included a club option for a 7th year. Like Martinez, McCann received a $1mil bonus and salaries of $500K (2007) and $800K (2008) for the first two years, then salaries of $3.5mil (2009), $5.5mil (2010), $6.5mil (2011), $8.5mil (2012), and a club option for $12mil (2013) with a $500K buyout.

Miguel Montero currently is in the 2nd year of arbitration (age 27), making $3.2mil, a similar figure to what Martinez and McCann made in what would have been their 1st years of arbitration on their deals. Considering Montero would be entering the end of his prime years (generally considered 26-28), I think a fair deal for both parties would be a 4 year, $28.5mil deal with a team option for a 5th year. Montero will be starting his age 28 year in 2012, and I broke down the salaries as $5.25mil (2012), $6.5mil (2013), $7.75mil (2014), $9mil (2015) with a team option for $11mil (2016) with a $1.5mil buyout. If the Dbacks exercise the option, it would pay Montero $39.5mil over 5 years, or $29.5mil over 4 years if the Dbacks decline the option.

Since generally catcher's don't age well past 31, this may be Montero's only chance to get a big contract. Montero also isn't on par with Martinez and McCann hitting wise, so he wouldn't be able to get the kind of money Martinez got this past offseason to play 1st/DH a few years from now. I think that's why adding the club option may entice Montero to sign for a little less than he could possibly get if he waited a year to become a free agent. Even though a catcher doesn't have the inherent injury risks of a pitcher, he has gotten hurt in the past, along with injuries to Mauer and Santana, that may motivate him to sign a deal this offseason.

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Comments

I'd do it

But I think the team will probably go for three years with a fourth-year option rather than four years with a fifth-year option, even if it means slightly higher average salaries. Montero also has a torn meniscus in his history, so I doubt we commit too long to him, tbh.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 8, 2011 3:18 PM EDT reply actions

3 compared to 4

I understand your point of view, but if that’s the case, if I was Montero, I’d rather wait one year and get paid about $5mil and then be a free agent. I think as a free agent, it wouldn’t be too difficult for him to get a 4year deal.

by shibum78 on Sep 8, 2011 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I think we have to

He’s an above average hitter and appears to be at least an average defender with the occasional wild arm, with signs he may be improving as a defender. These don’t fall off catcher trees. Lock him up.

by SenSurround on Sep 8, 2011 3:50 PM EDT reply actions

It's not

like we have anyone legitimate to replace him in the minors, either, except for (maybe) Perez The Younger.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Sep 8, 2011 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions

this is the problem

our farm is pretty bare when it comes to catching prospects

though….there are a ton of good catching prospects in the minors. it might actually make sense from an opportunity cost standpoint to try to trade for a minor league catcher to fill the hole after Montero leaves, and use money to buy a FA at the middle infield position, where the entire minors are bare.

or maybe not. maybe it’s the same value. i suck at econ :(

by blue bulldog on Sep 8, 2011 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm no expert, but those numbers seem reasonable

Less money than we are paying Joe Saunders. Less money than we are paying CY. Less than we were paying Adam LaRoche. Less (I think) than we were paying Kelly Johnson. I think Miggy is more valuable than any of those, although you could argue that CY got his contract when they thought he was going to hit better than he has (at least this year).

by Craig from Az on Sep 8, 2011 7:45 PM EDT reply actions

which is why i don't think Miggy will do it

Miggy should be able to get an extension that averages $8 million per year easily (not based on options, but based on the guaranteed portion)

look at the McCann contract. he got $8 million in what would have been his first free agent year. sure, he was coming off a monster year in 2006 hitting-wise. but that was also 4 years away from free agency, so it’s actually a discounted free agency price to compensate for the risk the club was taking, whereas Montero is only 1 year away from free agency. then you have to take into account five years’ worth of baseball inflation between 2007 and 2012.

so yeah….in 2012 he will probably get $5+ million in arbitration alone (especially since he made the All-Star team), so any extension will probably need to be higher than that. i’m thinking an extension would consist of $6 million in 2012, and then average somewhere between $8-9 million for each free agency year we want to buy out thereafter.

by blue bulldog on Sep 8, 2011 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Why would the first year of an extension need to be higher than his arb number?

Shouldn’t they be, for all intents and purposes, equal? What he’ll get in 2012 is pretty much known, regardless of his value, so there’s no reason an extension has to vary from that. The idea here is to provide Montero some long-term security and the D-backs some financial relief for taking on all of the risk, but all of that occurs after 2012 and above the arbitration figure.

Guaranteed money after the first arb year is $6.5MM + $7.75MM + $9MM + $1.5MM = $24.75MM, which is $8.25MM per year for the first three years. The option has a net value of $9.5MM (buyout excluded). Good contract, looks like it was very well thought-out.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 11, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions

in theory

your point is true from a purely one-time transaction economic basis

but really, i think you should be thinking of the slightly higher than Arb value as a goodwill gesture to bring Montero to the negotiation table. adding half a million to his 2012 salary is a drop in the bucket for the organization, but means a lot to the player on the other side.

and that goodwill gesture will translate to healthier negotiation with Montero, as well as establishing a good rep for the org in further negotiations down the line with other potential FA

by blue bulldog on Sep 11, 2011 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions

If the overall money is fine

I don’t think Montero will whine about not getting a goodwill gesture. Based on what little I know about the guy, he’ll just be stoked to get a deal done and stay here. He wants to get to the negotiating table, so that’s not a huge necessity.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 11, 2011 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Isn't that

pretty much always what they say about players?

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Sep 13, 2011 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions

That's from what I've actually seen of the guy

From the clubhouse. Dude’s just seems happy all the time. Maybe that’s just his personality, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he really wanted to stay here.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 14, 2011 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions

I wouldn't either,

but he’s got an agent, too…

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Sep 14, 2011 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions

good points

That’s why I was having difficulty trying to figure it out. I couldn’t think of any recent catchers that became full time starters at 25 or older that were actually good hitters.

I don’t think the $8-9mil a year for Montero would be out of line, but don’t players usually give a 20%+ discount on their arbitration year(s) for the certainty of the extra years? That’s why I don’t think he would get $6mil, but even still, $6mil for 1st year, and three additional years at $8mil, $8.5mil, and $9mil would be $31.5mil for 4 years, still not a bad deal, IMO.

by shibum78 on Sep 8, 2011 11:42 PM EDT reply actions

totally agree

i’d do it instantly

by blue bulldog on Sep 9, 2011 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions

I'll

sign the papers now.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Sep 9, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Only if the club option afterward

Is cheap (i.e. $9.5MM) and has no buyout. Any buyout would need to take money away from those salary figures. Maybe $7.5MM, $8MM, $8.5MM, then a $1.5MM buyout on an $11MM option.

And I agree with you on the arb part. I think $5.25 is perfectly reasonable.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 11, 2011 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Gotta sign the man.

If he’s gone, our lineup would look pretty weak unless a position player prospect steps up HUGE, which I don’t see happening.

He’s the reason we can afford Gerardo Parra in a corner outfield spot.

Goldy Watch: 28 games, ..258/.327/.506

by Jdub220 on Sep 9, 2011 3:05 PM EDT reply actions

The Parra point

Is legitimate. Getting an unusual amount of power from Miggy allows us to not get power from Parra.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 11, 2011 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Here are some comps for Miguel

This first link is for catchers through age 27 that have played between 400-600 games. (Since 1961 expansion era). The other paremeters are simply OPS+ and ISO. I used higher than 95 to make sure the list was long enough, and lower than 120 as Miguel’s career high is this years 118, so you don’t need the Johnny Benches of the world in there. But I set an ISO minimum because I wanted guys that were known for having some pop.

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/nW3Vc

Shibum is right that there is nobody like him in the recent past. The two closest comps are Jody Davis from the 80’s and Mike Lieberthal from the 90’s. HOWEVER, the one constant on the list is that with the exception of Javy Lopez …(cough….cough…..PED’s….cough cough) most of the guys on the list had their best seasons by age 27.

This next link is probably more important. We have Miguel next year no matter what. But how many catchers in the last 20 years have simply played in 360 games (75% of games at C) from age 29-31, which are the ages we would be looking at for Miguel on a 3 year extension. It’s a SHORT list of 11 players. At least 3 or 4 of them have strong PED suspicions.

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/n2MMK

I think the very fact that Miguel is a catcher, who has had knee surgery already, and we are an NL team that doesn’t have the DH option precludes us from giving him a 3 year extension beyond his last year of control.

I love Miguel. In fact I was in the camp that opposed trading him for Daniel Bard when that was on the table following the 2008 season. I am not surprised how he has blossomed as an offensive player the last 3 seasons…..in fact I expected it. And I always felt the positive aspects of his defensive game were enough to offset his throwing/error problems. The turnaround in the throwing game the last 3 months has been icing on the cake.

BUT……..I think it behooves the team to get a couple of good catching prospects in the system right away, because I don’t think it’s a good bet of 25-30 million dollars FOR THIS FRANCHISE that any catcher is going to stay healthy enough to play often enough AND maintain this level of offense throughout the proposed years of the contract.

Believe it or not, I would even consider trading Montero after this season. Sell high to a big market team that feels they could sign him before he becomes a FA, and get maximum return……(obviously if return wasn’t high enough you play out the string next year and take the draft pic). If you could use Miggy to plug some infield holes, AND get a catching prospect, and then go out and hit the FA market for some veteran guy(s) to hold the fort for a couple of years while you try to get a young catching prospect ready……….it’s a possible way to go. They probably won’t do that…….but it’s one possible option.

Here is the 2012 Catcher FA list from MLB Trade Rumors

Rod Barajas (36)
Josh Bard (34)
Henry Blanco (40)
Ramon Castro (36)
Ryan Doumit (31) – $7.25MM club option for 2012, $8.25MM club option for ’13 with a $500K buyout
Ramon Hernandez (36)
Jason Kendall (38)
Gerald Laird (32)
Jose Molina (36)
Yadier Molina (29) – $7MM club option with a $750K buyout
Dioner Navarro (28)
Ivan Rodriguez (40)
Brian Schneider (35)
Kelly Shoppach (29) – $3.2MM club option with a $300K buyout
Chris Snyder (31) – $6.75MM club option with a $750K buyout
Matt Treanor (36)
Jason Varitek (40)

By the way….take a look at Ryan Doumit’s contract. He is making 5.1 this year, in what would have been his final ARB year had he not signed that deal. The Pirates have two team options for 2012-2013, but they have to exercise BOTH after this season, and they are not cheap, 15.5 million. It’s no slam dunk they exercise those options. He is a comparable hitter to Montero, but would not be cheap, and already on the wrong side of 30.

Anyway, just a thought.

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Sep 11, 2011 12:17 PM EDT reply actions

i agree with the concern somewhat

but i really don’t see how we solve our problem by trading Montero

i agree in the sense that just like i strongly believe we shouldn’t be handing out contract extensions to pitchers, i also strongly believe there’s a lot of risk for a mid-market team like ours to be handing out contract extensions to catchers

on the other hand, who would we trade Montero to, in order to get a catching prospect? the only team i see as a possibility is if we trade Montero to the Yankees (if they don’t believe Jesus Montero can stick at catcher) and get a package centered around Gary Sanchez back. otherwise, the decent catching prospects are not going to be available for Montero. though, we could consider trading away pitching prospects for catchers…

one option might be trading away Skaggs for Mesoraco or D’Arnaud. in this case, Mesoraco is a more likely trade because the Reds also have Yasmani Grandal in the minors. that’s probably a fair trade in terms of value on both sides and overall prospect rankings on both sides. we could then trade away Montero for a pitching prospect. we could also ride out Montero next year, and maybe trade a couple of our Tier Two prospects for Grandal and hope he’s ready by the time Montero is gone.

at the end of the day, the simplest thing might be to just get the three year extension (the best situation would be cover the Arb year and get two FA years) and hope he doesn’t get injured. this isn’t like the Mauer contract…and we might need to just suck it up and take this risk.

by blue bulldog on Sep 11, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Certainly a risk they might need to take

IF they trade Montero, I think they MUST plug infield holes……don’t trade him for pitching.

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Sep 11, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Don't think

they’d trade D’Arnaud, even for Skaggs. Think his value has grown too much this year.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Sep 13, 2011 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions

i don't think

we’d trade Skaggs for D’Arnaud either

people always develop a slightly irrational love for their own commodities

just saying that from a rational standpoint, that seems like a fair trade in my mind

by blue bulldog on Sep 14, 2011 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Likely not,

but I think, objectively, D’Arnaud is probably worth a little more. Say, Skaggs plus Chase Anderson or something. (Not that they’d do it)

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Sep 14, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't think it's so much that

As it’s very risky for a GM to pull the trigger on a prospect-for-prospect deal. So much can happen, and if you guess wrong, you get torn apart for it in the media for the rest of your career.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 14, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions