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DBacks 5, Rockies 3: Millwood if Millcould but Millcan't

Record: 82-61. Pace: 93-69.
Change on last season: +25. Magic number: 13.

You know, by this point in most seasons, I can't wait to be done playing the Rockies. Maybe it's because we play them so often in Spring Training, maybe it's because we hear about them so much, maybe it's because of Troy Tulowitzki's stupid mullet. But this year? I don't know why, I don't mind seeing them so much.... Oh, right, it's because we've completely dominated them this year. But would we end the season series the way we started it? Only time would tell...

Star-divide

The early innings were fairly uneventful, if a bit slow. Both teams put runners on in each inning- Gerardo Parra immediately thanked Gibby for his shot at batting leadoff by starting the game off with a double. But while the DBacks managed to get a runner in scoring position in the first and second innings, they couldn't manage to get around to score.

Maybe this was in the back of Aaron Hill's mind in the third inning. Hill reached on a one out single, and when Justin Upton singled to left, Hill decided second base wasn't far enough, and went for third. Unfortunately, third base was a little too far, and Aaron Hill was out easily on a good throw from Seth Smith. Even worse? Every runner is in scoring position when Miguel Montero decides to go long. Miggy took a pitch from Kevin Millwood deep to center field and put the Diamondbacks up 2-0, but we couldn't help but wonder if we'd miss the extra run that Hill represented.

And then Kevin Millwood hit a home run.

Yeah, it a weird moment for all of us. Millwood hit a home run, and then a couple of outs later, Carlos Gonzalez decided to do it, too- though CarGo certainly took more time admiring his shot- and we were tied up, 2-2. Then in the bottom of the fourth inning, when Wilin Rosario hit his first career home run in the majors to give the Rockies a 3-2 lead, we were definitely wishing Hill hadn't been thrown out.

Meanwhile, either Millwood had decided he was going to be a good pitcher, or the Diamondbacks had forgotten their bats. Until the sixth inning, when normal service returned. Paul Goldschmidt started the inning off with a single. Two quick outs made it look like we might strand another runner, but John McDonald handled that. A double to left brought Goldschmidt in to score and tied up the game. Then, with a pinch hitt- wait, no, Joe Saunders to bat for himself? Go ahead run on second? Well, while we might have wondered, Saunders validated our faith in GibbyBall and lined a single to left, bringing McDonald in to give the DBacks a 4-3 lead. Millwood was done for the night, and while Saunders was stranded, we went into the bottom of the sixth with a lead.

And then Saunders gave up a single to Troy Tulowitzki and a walk to Ty Wigginton to start the second. And we immediately began to wonder if we shouldn't have pulled him for a pinch hitter. But, lo, do not doubt Joe Saunders- a pop up, a swinging K, and a fly out to center later, and Joe Saunders was out of trouble. No worries.

Justin Upton drove another nail into the Rockies hopes with a leadoff home run in the seventh inning, stretching the lead to 5-3. The Rockies will be glad to not have to face J-Up anymore this season- if my math is right, Upton's hit a ridiculous .403/.493/.821 against the Rockies this year. Yeah, that's a 1.314 OPS. And you wonder why Rockies fans don't like him.

The Diamondbacks had chances to add on after that- a Sean Burroughs double in the eighth went to waste, as did back-to-back defensive blunders by TuLOLwitzki. But the Diamondbacks bullpen returned to their regular excellent 2011 service, and the Rockies just couldn't manage to score against them. Colorado put runners on second in the seventh and ninth innings, but Bryan Shaw, David Hernandez, and J.J. Putz didn't let them get any further than that, and with a fly out to center by Dexter Fowler, the Diamondbacks closed out the game and finished the season series on a strong performance.

Joe Saunders earned win #10, and while his performance wasn't dominating, it was good enough- a very tight-rope sort of performance, and at least his three home runs were all solo shots. Putz earned his 37th save this year. In the standings, losses by both the Giants and the Brewers mean the DBacks were able to take full advantage of the win- the magic number in the NL West drops to 13, and we move only 2.5 back from Brewers in the NL playoff rankings. Not too shabby for one (surprisingly long) game's work.

20110907_diamondbacks_rockies_0_20110907232016_lbig__medium
via www.fangraphs.com
Justice League International: Miguel Montero (+13.8%)
Justice League Task Force: J.J. Putz (+11.2%), David Hernandez (+10.5%), John McDonald (+9.1%)
Justice League Ontario: Aaron Hill (-12.1%)

Busy comment thread today, heading towards 1300 comments as we saw the final out. imstillhungry95 led teh pack, with DBacksSkins making his return to the threads and hitting triple digits. snakecharmer took third, and then the rest of us: DeDxDbacKxJroK, Clefo, Jim McLennan, Rockkstarr12, SenSurround, NASCARbernet, Stile4aly, emilylovesthedbacks, Gildo, since_98, blue bulldog, BulldogsNotZags, SongBird, AZDBACKR, asteroid, Muu, freeland1787, kishi, hotclaws, The so-called Beautiful, txzona, Bryn21, Stupendous Man, Brian MacKinney, VouxCroux, Zavada's Moustache, Backin'the'Backs, porty99, TinySarabia, Dallas D'Back Fan, 4 Corners Fan, UofAZGrad, mrssoco, Augdogs, BattleMoses, Husk, and nateasaurus.

The most rec'd comment was a repeat, so instead, I'll award today's CotD to this one:

HEY GIANTS

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

Working on a Player to Be Named... (babysoco! 11/24/11)

by mrssoco on Sep 7, 2011 9:18 PM MST

I think we can all agree with that.

Diamondbacks head home tomorrow to start their series with the Padres, with the 2001 World Series reunion festivities taking place this weekend. Ian Kennedy will take the mound tomorrow and go for win #19. Looks like we're in a great place to chop that magic number down even further...

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Aww. I got CotD

Who says nepotism isn’t awesome? :)

(Also, I <3 the post’s title.)

Working on a Player to Be Named... (babysoco! 11/24/11)

by mrssoco on Sep 8, 2011 1:28 AM EDT reply actions  

2-0 vs them in chase this year

Trevor Bauer: 14-4, 2.00 ERA, 162 IP, 246 K in UCLA, Visalia (Hi-A), and Mobile (AA)

by freeland1787 on Sep 8, 2011 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

0-3 vs them at Turner Field this year.

What’s your point?

2007: Anybody, Anytime
2011: Justin Upton, All the Time

by Zavada's Moustache on Sep 8, 2011 3:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

maybe it is that

we played them well at home?

La vida no se ha hecho para comprenderla, sino para vivirla.

by unnamedDBacksfan on Sep 8, 2011 8:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Based on a sample

Of two games from May…

2007: Anybody, Anytime
2011: Justin Upton, All the Time

by Zavada's Moustache on Sep 8, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

Although we lost 3 to ATL

last month, we played them close in two of the games. In fact, we have played each playoff team (ATL, Milwaukee and Philly) close this year.

I got nothin'.

by Bcawz on Sep 8, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

didn't stop you from

making the same claim when we play there now, did it?

La vida no se ha hecho para comprenderla, sino para vivirla.

by unnamedDBacksfan on Sep 8, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wasn't making the same claim,

I was making fun of small sample sizes by using one that proved something different. Sorry if that wasn’t clear.

2007: Anybody, Anytime
2011: Justin Upton, All the Time

by Zavada's Moustache on Sep 8, 2011 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think

ZM was making a serious claim…

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Sep 8, 2011 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

You could make an argument for wanting the Phillies in the first round.

For one, it’s more likely we could beat them in a 5 game series rather than a 7 game series. That’s a good thing considering we’d probably have to place them anyways if we beat the Braves.

"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."

by txzona on Sep 8, 2011 2:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

*play them

"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."

by txzona on Sep 8, 2011 2:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah

Odds are, we will be playing the Phillies in Philadelphia one way or the other. Making a choice between a 5 or 7 game series no choice at all.

by The so-called Beautiful on Sep 8, 2011 2:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Philly will rest and set their rotation

Game 1 – Halladay
Game 2 – Lee

Game 3 – Hamels
Game 4 – Halladay

Game 5 – Lee

I’d like to sound confident and say “bring it on”! but no, i want Atlanta.

by Husk on Sep 8, 2011 2:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

noone

ever only uses three pitchers in the playoffs anymore….

regardless though, i’d rather face Atlanta

by blue bulldog on Sep 8, 2011 3:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

I disagree

The Tigers and Yanks will both only start 3 pitchers in the Division series this year. If it goes more than 3 games CC and Verlander will start game 1 and 4. Look at our situation, if we take Philly to game 4 would you rather throw Collmenter/Suanders out there or Kennedy on 3 days rest? Of Milwaukee pulls away we can rest IPK so he’s ready to go on short rest if necessary.

by Husk on Sep 8, 2011 5:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

Why would the Phils

go with Halladay on 3 days when they could go with a combo of Oswalt/Worley fully rested? They’re very unlikely to press Halladay, even if he’s one of the few pitchers who may well be able to do so.

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder

by njjohn on Sep 8, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yes

We definitely want the Braves. There aren’t any easy teams in the playoffs, but facing Hudson/Lowe/Jurrjens/Beachy >>>>>>>>> facing Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Oswalt.

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder

by njjohn on Sep 8, 2011 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

Jurrjens is on the DL, probably out for postseason

I stopped reading. Now I just write sarcastic, angry comments.. -- soco
They're not even cooking the ice! -- kishi

by snakecharmer on Sep 8, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Definitely on Hanson

Jurrjens is probably the case as well. And replacing him with Minor means even more we’d want ATL vs. PHI.

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder

by njjohn on Sep 8, 2011 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

This.

5-game rotation:
Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Worley, Halladay.

7-game rotation:
Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Halladay, Worley, Lee, Halladay.

You know that they’d find a way to get Halladay out there three times in a seven-game series. C’mon, the guy throws like 260 innings every year with playoff time. He’s inhuman. Lee on four days rest in Game 6 is a no-brainer too. So really, do we want to add another two games against Halladay and Lee? I love IPK, but he can only do so much, and Huddy is not on the level of either of those guys. And can IPK really go on three days rest twice in a row? Dude already made a huge innings jump in 2010, and we’re pretty much doing it all over again in 2011.

ARZ in 5:
Kennedy, Hudson, Saunders, Collmenter, Kennedy.

ARZ in 7:
Kennedy, Hudson, Saunders, Kennedy, Collmenter, Hudson, Kennedy.
OR
Kennedy, Hudson, Saunders, Collmenter, Miley, Kennedy, Hudson. (Reasoning here: does anybody truly trust Saunders on four days rest over Miley completely fresh? Really, think about it… plus, this gives Kennedy and Hudson the extra day of rest that they’re used to.)

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 8, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

I would guess

that either team’s rotation the second time through depends where they stand in that series. In other words, if they are already up 2 or 3 games, why press your #1 back into action for game 4.

Either way, the Phillies rotation scares me more than ATL or Milwaukee.

I got nothin'.

by Bcawz on Sep 8, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

But

is facing Halladay the 2nd or 3rd time as effective as the 1st time, especially on short rest? Would you really rather face Hamels and Oswalt/Worley at home down 2 games and with 1 left before elimination than down 2 games and with an extra game wiggle room?

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Sep 8, 2011 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I mean,

we’re talking guys with career ERAs against the Dbacks of:

Halladay – 2.73
Lee – 3.21
Hamels – 3.72
Oswalt – 2.35
Worley – 0.00 (in 3 IP)

Where’s the big dropoff? I really don’t see any advantage as far as pitching matchups.

In case you’re wondering, our guys against them:
IPK – 2.25
Huddy – 4.50 (in 6 IP)
Saunders – 5.26
Collmenter – 2.35 (in 7.2 IP)
Miley – Never faced

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Sep 8, 2011 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

I really

don’t understand this thinking. Why? Because they’ll have been coasting?

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Sep 8, 2011 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you're the underdog

Easier to win three than four. Simple math. The more games played, the more likely the better team is to win.

Daron "...the D. Baxter fan-club"
Mark: "A non-profit organization."

by Jim McLennan on Sep 8, 2011 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's easier

to beat a better team 60% of the time than 57% of the time?

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Sep 8, 2011 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yep

Because of the fewer tries. It’s like if you flip a coin ten times, you might get seven heads and three tails, and not be shocked. But if you flipped it 100 times, if you got 70 heads and thirty tails, I’d be very surprised.

I don’t want to get all math on you, but say we give the Phillies a 60% chance of winning each game. The odds of winning three in five is 68.26% – the odds of them winning four in seven is 71.02%. Shorter series favor underdogs more.

I’ll be doing a whole piece on this tomorrow. :-)

Daron "...the D. Baxter fan-club"
Mark: "A non-profit organization."

by Jim McLennan on Sep 8, 2011 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

i agree with you

that there’s more volatility, and therefore a better chance for us in a shorter series, but that’s a pretty marginal difference (just basing off your numbers)

i’d rather just concede that we aren’t going to the World Series…and try to maximize our revenue from being in the playoffs. playing the Braves means we are guaranteed 2 home games, and a better chance for more. that’s what i care about.

by blue bulldog on Sep 8, 2011 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Speaking of playoffs

The Reno Aces beat the Sacremento River Cats 7-4

Trevor Bauer: 14-4, 2.00 ERA, 162 IP, 246 K in UCLA, Visalia (Hi-A), and Mobile (AA)

by freeland1787 on Sep 8, 2011 2:39 AM EDT reply actions  

twas a glorious victory

☣ "I like to keep a bottle of stimulant handy in case I see a snake, which I also keep handy." ☣
DO IT FOR DREW

by hotclaws on Sep 8, 2011 3:25 AM EDT reply actions  

Glad we won...and Joe got the win

He TOTALLY needed that!!!

"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth

by Rockkstarr12 on Sep 8, 2011 10:16 AM EDT reply actions  

Really glad to see this game

Nice to see a non-bullpen implosion in this series. I feel much better now. Still feel not very confident about Saunders pitching in the playoffs.

by SongBird on Sep 8, 2011 11:45 AM EDT reply actions  

I have confidence in Joe

Not just because I like him as a PERSON either, but because he has proven he can get himself out of jams. last night was proof. Everyone got all over him when those home runs were hit but you know what? Coors Field is and always will be a launching pad. Those homers could have happened to ANY of our pitchers besides Joe!

He was an All Star in 2008 for the Angels. He’s proven through the years that he can be effective and get the job done. This year may be an off year for him. Pitchers are human and as such, they go through off years just as much as hitters do. I am giving Joe the benefit of the doubt but then again this is ME, the eternal optimist :)

"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth

by Rockkstarr12 on Sep 8, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hernandez

Looked just fine!

Freeze it..and make a popsicle

by Baja F1 on Sep 8, 2011 12:22 PM EDT reply actions  

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