Diamondbacks Farm Round-Up 9/12: Still Alive Edition
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 13, 2011 9:01 AM EDT
in Diamondbacks Farm Teams
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PrintJust one team still standing, but Double-A Mobile turned in a clutch performance on Monday night in Game Five of their series against Birmingham to keep their season alive. With their win, they advance to the Southern League Championship, where they'll play Tennessee, the Double-A affiliate of the Chicago Cubs. This also means that, at least for three more games, I have Farm Round-Ups to write! Yay! (Not sarcasm - I love doing these things.) Best of all, game three, game four (if necessary), and game five (if necessary) on the road at Tennessee are all slated to be on MiLB.tv, so hopefully I'll have a chance to watch at least a couple of them. Now, onto today's action.
Snakelets of the Day:
Charles Brewer (Double-A): 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R (1 ER), 5:3 K:BB, 6:4 GO:AO
Ryan Wheeler (Double-A): 2-4, 2 2B, R, 3 RBI, K
Double-A: Mobile 7, Birmingham 1. (3-2) The BayBears needed a big day from their bats and starting pitcher Charles Brewer, and got just that. Brewer started things with six innings of one-run pitching, posting a 5:3 K:BB ratio, a 6:4 GO:AO ratio, and allowing just three hits. Things got interesting in the second innings, when Brewer gave up a single and three walks to allow Birmingham's one run to cross the plate, but managed to work out of it by striking out the side, all three swinging. Yonata Ortega worked two scoreless innings after Brewer left, striking out two with one walk (but a pair of hit batters), and Kevin Munson worked a spectacular, scoreless ninth inning, striking out the side while giving up one hit.
Offensively, the BayBears were led once again by Ryan Wheeler, who doubled twice to drive in three of Mobile's seven runs, while Jacob Elmore singled and tripled. Taylor Harbin and Daniel Kaczrowski each added doubles of their own, and Kaczrowski added a single to record the third two-hit night of the Mobile lineup. Adam Eaton also turned in a solid outing, with a single, a walk, and a HBP, scoring twice.
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Yes- clutch performance by Brewer
that Rotation keeps getting the job done
Arizona Diamondbacks: 85-62
New England Patriots: 1-0
Is it wrong to want them to lose
so we can see Parker in the bigs?
That's the greedy fan's opinion, of course
I would love to see him in the big-league bullpen as well. :-) But the more post-season experience he can get, the better, IMO.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 13, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
If Parker gets called up...
I’d like to see him get 3-4 innings if we’re blowing out a team early (like Sherzer’s first appereance with us). Technically we were down early in that game but you get my point. I wanna see him for more than a single inning.
According to his Twitter page,
Matt Davidson is headed to Mobile to replace Daryle Ward for the rest of the post-season. Ward didn’t play yesterday, not sure what happened w/ him.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 13, 2011 2:21 PM EDT reply actions
you did mention his
pinch hitting abilities once, possibly bringing him up for a pinch hit here and there?
I did
He made a career out of being a good PHer, but I don’t think it’s in the works.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 13, 2011 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 13, 2011 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
You guessed accurately on Ward
on Twitter. Why was that?
Maybe the org wants to see an actual prospect get the PT.
Goldschmidt happens.
Perhaps
But I think if that were the case, Davidson would have been there at the start of the playoffs.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 13, 2011 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Because he didn't play yesterday and the BayBears' post-game report
Said that he was inactive or ineligible or something for the game. Figured he had to be out of the mix.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 13, 2011 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Ryan Wheeler
Really seems to have turned it on at the end of the season. Is he a dark horse to make the club out of ST next year, or will he likely just mash AAA for a while? Can he stick at 3B?
Doubtful to Jump to the Majors
He had a nice season, but an .822 OPS in AA usually isn’t impressive enough to make the jump. That’s not any better than what players like Cowgill, KSchmidt, and Gillespie did in AA, for example. I think he’ll start 2012 as the AAA 3B, and the club will take a close look at his defense. Hopefully he will hit like in 2011 and not like in 2010.
supposedly
Baseball America had him as the best defensive 3B in the Southern League. though, i think this is determined by voting from managers and what not. i’m a bit skeptical, since all the other scouting reports seem to indicate he’s not a good defender at all at 3B.
Wheeler is going to destroy AAA. and then we’ll have to figure out what to do with him, because we all know AAA stats don’t mean anything. he has put up pretty good numbers at AA this year, despite being a year younger than league average. obviously doesn’t have the upside of Davidson or Borchering, but i could still see him make the majors some day, even if only as a bench guy.
by blue bulldog on Sep 13, 2011 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
No 3B Competition in SL
Yeah, but there are only 9 other teams in the Southern League, and about half of those didn’t really have an everyday 3B. There was Josh Vitters (Cubs), Donnell Linares (Braves), and maybe Steffan Wilson (Brewers) – not too many other full time 3B.
i believe so
loyola marimount i think? is that even how you spell that?
he’s young though. played the Southern League this year at age 22.
by blue bulldog on Sep 13, 2011 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Loyola Marymount. :-)
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 13, 2011 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions
So,
not THAT young… have to think league average age in AA and AAA is artificially raised by organizational filler types, even moreso than lower leagues.
Goldschmidt happens.
of course the ages are artificially raised
but that’s already taken into account, when people say that having a good ARL increases your chance of success in the majors
by blue bulldog on Sep 14, 2011 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I think he'll stick at third base
So long as he remains in the D-backs org, because we have so many other, better prospects who are going to be occupying first base. I think the only way he makes the club out of Spring Training is if Geoff Blum gets injured again, but that’s not entirely difficult to imagine happening.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 13, 2011 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Might you say
That this was a triumph? Maybe it’s just me, but I’m making a note here: “HUGE SUCCESS.”
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 13, 2011 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Would a good comp for Parker be Matt Cain?
Great fastball, two breaking pitches and a change up? Both not very big…
Cain is 6'3", 225 lbs.
He’s not very big?
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 13, 2011 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions
pretty sure
Parker’s fastball is supposed to be better than Matt Cain
also, i’ve always felt Cain was more a guy who has like plus-plus command and otherwise not stellar stuff. but that could just be me.
by blue bulldog on Sep 13, 2011 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I was suprised when i saw he's a full win above Kennedy
Anyway, if Parker can become a 5-6 war guy we’re in good shape. Is that what we should expect?
Only by FanGraphs' WAR
If you go by FanGraphs WAR, Cain, Bumgarner, and even DHudson have significantly outperformed Kennedy. And Zach Duke has been worth more than Joe Saunders.
On Baseball-Reference, Kennedy is one Win ahead of Cain, and two ahead of Bumgarner/Hudson.
fWAR must put a large emphasis on HR
because that’s really the only thing that is different from Kennedy and Cain/ Madbum. I’m sure ballpark helps the SF guys out there.
K, BB, and HR
fWAR uses FIP, so it only considers K, BB, and HR (and IP). ERA is not considered at all.
So does bWAR
bWAR uses ERA+. It’s just the difference between using adjusted ERA or adjusted peripherals.
And, really, is fWAR adjusted sufficiently for ballparks? A strikeout in one park counts the same as in any other.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 14, 2011 12:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Then why
are there park factors for strikeouts? Some parks have better batters’ eyes than others, for example — and some parks, by virtue of environmental factors, give less break to pitches. I suppose you could say that that’s compensated by park factors granting greater reward for Ks.
The problem that I see is that, IIRC, fWAR simply uses overall run scoring for park factors, which might not always reflect a park being more HR-happy than another, for example. Or, it might overexaggerate it. When you’re only counting HRs, Ks, and BBs, that doesn’t seem like a good way of doing it.
Goldschmidt happens.
There are park factors for strikeouts
But FIP uses linear weights that ignore those park factors, IIRC. That’s why a strikeout in one park is the same as in any other.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 14, 2011 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions
...proving, once again,
that pitcher fWAR is only illustrative of IP and adjusted FIP.
Goldschmidt happens.
totally agree his stuff really is not that impressive, give him credit for the success he does hace, but it is really frustrating watching him shut us down with above avg stuff. nowhere near lincecum type stuff which we have hit pretty well recently, some guys just pitch well against certain teams tho
matt cain pitches well against every team....
seriously. Cain’s success stems from allowing a consistently below average number of HR’s, regardless of whether he’s at home or away. he’s like one of the only pitchers able to do this.
that suggests absurd command.
by blue bulldog on Sep 14, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Kershaw
has done it even moreso in over half the IP. Cain isn’t the only one, and his BABIP has been consistently low, too.
Goldschmidt happens.
I've heard Roy Oswalt in the past.
I survived the 2004 & 2010 seasons.
Bauer is AWESOME
Skaggs is AWESOME
Parker is AWESOME
If JP was Roy Oswalt.
I would be so thrilled. I’ve always had such a crush on Oswalt
"When Life gives you Lemons give the lemons BACK!"
it's the small righthander comp
i’m not sure if the arsenal is comparable though
it’s even harder now, because the reports on Parker’s stuff is so mixed. he used to be a fastball/slider guy. but now he’s a fastball/changeup guy? so now he’s a shorter Dan Hudson with a better arm angle?
by blue bulldog on Sep 14, 2011 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions
and the two seamer
heck….from an arsenal standpoint he almost sounds like Tim Lincecum (though i think Timmeh’s curveball is better than his slider, and Parker is the opposite)
but he doesn’t get close to the strikeouts, and the mechanics are totally off….so…..i have no idea who’s a good comp
by blue bulldog on Sep 14, 2011 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
That’s a standardized comp… what’s next, a short right-hander without a fastball proclaimed as the next Maddux? :-P
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 14, 2011 12:12 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
honestly in terms of numbers
i’ve always thought matt cain was pretty similar to maddux. maybe like a poor man’s maddux.
by blue bulldog on Sep 14, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
::groan::
Maddux recorded 7+ fWAR in eight of nine seasons from 1992 to 2000. Maddux is a good comp for nobody, statistical or otherwise.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 14, 2011 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
eh
okay i should have said “definitely a poor man’s maddux”
i actually can’t find his xFIP numbers between 1992-2000 (fangraphs doesn’t have it) but Maddux’s ERA handily destroys his FIP over that time. the only time his ERA doesn’t beat his FIP was his under 6 WAR year.
Matt Cain is similar in that sense
by blue bulldog on Sep 14, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
xFIP
wasn’t calculated until 2002, like UZR.
And xFIP is always going to underestimate guys like Matt Cain and Ian Kennedy because they’re flyball pitchers.
Goldschmidt happens.
I don't get the last point
xFIP just adjusts HR/FB rate, right? I don’t think adjusts anything for BABIP, which is what Kennedy and Cain will always have lower than most big-leaguers because of their flyballish tendencies.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 14, 2011 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, xFIP just adjusts HR/FB rate
to league average, which is my point. When adjusted for park, league, etc., flyball pitchers repeatedly have lower HR/FB rates than average, and groundball pitchers have higher HR/FB rates than average. Just another reason why xFIP is stupid to begin with.
So long as you’re intentionally penalizing flyball pitchers for what they’re good at, you’re going to have this problem.
Goldschmidt happens.
valid point
flyball pitchers tend to have lower HR/FB rates than average (which of course means groundball pitchers tend to have higher HR/FB rates than average)
i believe it might be an indirect effect of flyball pitchers generating more IFFB than groundball pitchers, but don’t quote me on that
by blue bulldog on Sep 14, 2011 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions
You mean
more IFFB/FB?
I don’t think that’s it…
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Sep 14, 2011 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions
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