Diamondbacks Farm Round-Up 9/11: Sound the Alarm! Edition
This one could also very easily have been titled "Destroyed Edition." The three D-backs affiliates in the post-season got swept on Sunday by a combined score of 32-5, with the least-gruesome loss coming in Double-A Mobile's 7-1 defeat at the hands of Birmingham. Additionally, there is much ado about what should be done with Trevor Bauer, or, perhaps more accurately, what should have been done with Bauer a couple weeks back. My two cents on the team's top prospect (yes, he's still the team's top prospect - don't be so silly as to knock him for two bad outings late in the year with how heavy of a workload he's endured) follow the jump, as well as all the bitter details.
Snakelet of the Day:
Ryan Wheeler (Double-A): 2-3, 2B, BB
Triple-A: Reno 2, Sacramento 13. (2-3) The Aces were eliminated on Sunday, turning a 2-0 series lead into a 2-3 series defeat at the hands of the RiverCats. Reno actually took an early 2-0 lead over Sacramento in the top of the second off of a two-run home run by Ryan Langerhans, but recorded only three hits (and three walks) in the entire contest - Langerhans' bomb and two doubles, one apiece from Mark Hallberg and Cody Ransom.
Things went horribly wrong in the bottom of the third, as starter Tom Layne collapsed, allowing three runs to score while notching just one out before leaving the game, with Kyler Newby allowing a pair of inherited runners from Layne to also cross the plate. Newby would work just an inning and two thirds and give up two of his own runs before departing, bringing in Michael Bolsinger. Bolsinger was scored upon for the first time since being called up from South Bend, allowing three runs (one earned) to score while walking three in another inning and two thirds. Kam Mickolio joined the fray at that point, and was also promptly torched, giving up three runs in 1.1 innings, though he at least did strike out three of the ten batters he faced. Mike DeMark worked the final inning, putting together the only scoreless appearance by the pitching staff in this horrific contest.
Double-A: Mobile 1, Birmingham 7. (2-2) Let's begin with Trevor Bauer. The team's prize right-hander was lit up for the second straight outing, working just three innings and surrendering seven hits, three walks, and seven runs while striking out only two of the 19 batters he faced. Undeniably a bad outing. Great, glad we have that out of the way. Now, repeat after me: Trevor Bauer is no different than he was two weeks ago. Might he be tiring and seeing his stuff fade? My guess is no, because I don't think he would have hit a wall this quickly due to simple arm fatigue - remember, he went from dominant to awful in five days. Might he be seriously hurt? One word: No - if you think the organization didn't make absolutely sure that he was physically okay after his outing against Chattanooga, you're out of your mind.
I think it's probably one of three things. First, it's possible that Bauer pulled something slightly and is trying to pitch through it, which is a bit silly, but isn't something I'm going to freak out about. After all, if he tweaked a quad, he's got an entire off-season to get it right, and injuries like that don't have long-term ramifications. Second, I think it's possible that some late-year tiredness may have gotten his mechanics a bit out of line. Bauer's delivery is, to put it lightly, complex, and something not being right could really wreak havoc on his command, which would explain how hittable he's been. This is perhaps a tad more worrisome than a small little muscle pull, but I think an off-season of recovery and film will have him right back to where he needs to be.
Finally, let's not all forget that there's a serious chance that he's simply going through one of the most absurd stretches of bad luck he'll have in his career. Yeah, the strikeout rate is low, but that BABIP is enormous. For people to think it's a given that all of hits must be his fault seems a bit hasty. Really, in any of these three cases, I'm not freaking out about Bauer, and I'm not putting Skaggs above him on my spreadsheet. Trevor Bauer is still a pitching machine, and I fully expect him to be a revelation for us in 2012.
After Bauer departed, Clay Zavada and Bryan Woodall each worked three shutout innings, with Zavada posting a 4:1 K:BB and 3:0 GO:AO while Woodall was slightly less impressive with a 2:2 K:BB ratio and 4:3 GO:AO ratio. Ryan Wheeler had another solid day at the plate with a double, a single, and a walk, but the offense remained by-and-large punchless once again. Right-hander Charles Brewer will be on the mound for Mobile in game five, looking to seal the series for the BayBears. Not a bad fifth starter for the Double-A playoffs, if I say so myself.
Advanced-Rookie: Missoula 2, Great Falls 12. (1-2) Osprey starter Raymond Hernandez has also been slowing down as of late, and he hit a wall in the fifth inning of this one. Hernandez departed the game after 4.2 innings, posting a 4:1 K:BB ratio with six hits, a home run, and four runs (three earned) allowed. He gave way for Seth Simmons out of the 'pen, but Simmons promptly allowed a single and a walk, getting pulled after two batters for Keith Hessler, who allowed both of Simmons' runners to score.
Hessler would give up another three runs in his two innings on the mound, D.J. Johnson was tagged for two runs in 1.1 innings of work, and Robby Rowland gave up one more run in the ninth, though he did strike out two of the five batters he faced. The Osprey bats weren't punchless, as Chris Ellison tripled to go with doubles from Tom Belza, Jon Griffin, and Ryan Court, but Missoula notched just six hits and one walk, failing to make their extra-base hits count.
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I think
Bauer just pitched himself out of a chance to be up in September, and into a month or two of AA Mobile next year.
All good things, IMO. If he starts next season in the big league rotation and gets hammered, that would suck for his development and for our season.
I don't think he pitched himself out of the 2012 Opening Day rotation
He did probably pitch himself out of a call-up. Which really isn’t a big deal… like, at all. If he pitches up to his normal standards in Spring Training, though, he could very easily start 2012 with Arizona.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 12, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Let's remember
That there’s still Spring Training and he’s still young. If he pitches great in Spring Training (especially against established big leaguers) or there’s nothing wrong with his speed, location, and movement, he’ll start in April. But if not everything’s right, he’ll probably spend some time in extended spring training or Reno. He’s young so I don’t think the org would want to rush him.
Not extended ST,
unless he’s injured. (God forbid)
I think he starts in Reno, and is with the big club by May.
Goldschmidt happens.
Don't panic-
Bauer has a season and a half before he is in Russ Ortiz territory…
Riding the Gibbytrain since 2011!
I think
He has at least six years before he’s in Russ Ortiz territory, given that he’s cost-controlled…
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 12, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
When Bauer was drafted...
I looked at him as security if the franchise arm (Parker) didn’t recover. Now it’s the other way around. Parker is getting stronger and sharper as the season comes to a close and Bauer is getting crushed. I wanted us to explore JP trades this winter but now it’s too risky. Keep Parker.
With pitching prospects
I don’t think you can ever put all of your eggs in one basket. I love the club’s new philosophy on drafting gobs of pitching – I feel like the more quality pitching prospects you have, the slower you can push them through the system, which in turn decreases attrition rate (i.e. Tampa Bay seems to have like half of its top-rated arms pan out into awesome starters).
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 12, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Speaking of TB, Moore was called up
I’d like us to keep Skaggs down there another year like Moore. We can get more quality production from him years 22-28 rather than him starting right off the bat next year. Parker will be 23 next season, he’s a MAN, he’s ready.
He's a MAN
he’s 40?
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Sep 12, 2011 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Parker may be older...
… and he may even be ready. But what does Skaggs have left to prove? Or even develop? As an organization, what in the world do they tell him in the offseason? With Parker there are things he still needs to refine. And while Skaggs may be his junior, it sure is hard to see anything the young man has left to work on.
"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder
What did Matt Moore have left to prove?
Leave the 20 year old pup in AA for another year, let him get stronger, no harm done. Better to go slow with these kids.
i've said this before and i'll say this again
Skaggs numbers in AA were comparable to Moore’s numbers, albeit for a smaller sample size. and Tampa’s decision to keep Moore in the minors was heavily criticized. this is considering that Tampa’s starting rotation depth is way more stacked than the Dbacks, and so had less of a need for Moore, than we do for Skaggs
furthermore, Matt Moore going into the year still had questions about control, as he was still walking a relatively high percentage of batters faced. that was the question he needed to resolve this year, and he resolved it fantastically. Skaggs doesn’t really have any questions in his game at this point. the only black mark against him, is that some scouts don’t see his stuff as being on the same tier as lefties like Matt Moore and Martin Perez. but that’s not something staying in the minors will fix.
yes, it’s true that letting pitchers take their time to develop in the minors is a good thing. however, it’s also true that the longer a pitcher is in the minors, the higher the probability that he will be injured before reaching the majors. so you have to balance that out. at the point where the kid has nothing left to prove/learn in the minors, it’s time to start him in the majors, lest we waste those precious bullets in his arm on meaningless games.
by blue bulldog on Sep 13, 2011 3:23 AM EDT up reply actions
There are other comparisons...
Clayton Kershaw came up at the same age SKaggs is now, and struggled his first season. If they waited say a year they’d have him for 4 more seasons (instead of 3 now). Parker and Bauer will probably be up, Collmenter as the #5 is fine by me. Skaggs in 2013 might even dominate right outta the gate assuming he adds some strength and innings. He’s pitched only 160 innings this year.
But does Kershaw become what he was the following year
Without spending the previous year in the big leagues? Taking that as a given might not be accurate.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 13, 2011 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Amen to this.
I very much tend to have a more cautious approach with guys on the farm, but with Skaggs, I just don’t see what the organization can tell him in terms of improvement. If it’s a Jesus Montero or Jennings type situation you run the risk of just frustrating the youngster and wasting their possible contributions.
If the organization evaluates Skaggs in the offseason and doesn’t have a pitch or a mechanical flaw or an approach issue they can tell him — we want you to go out next year and focus on taking this to the next level — if there isn’t any of this, then I don’t see a reason for the organization to hold Skaggs back.
"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder
Besides the injury issue,
extra time in the minors doesn’t always help one progress. You’re facing inferior competition and can develop bad habits.
Does anyone think Barry Enright’s nearly full season in Reno this year made him a better pitcher? If he’s changed something substantively, then yes, great. But he didn’t, and came back and got lit up.
What’s Skaggs going to do at the same level that he’s already beaten?
Goldschmidt happens.
Good for trades too
Two of the biggest trades this past July were for pitching prospects (Jimenez to Cleveland and Beltran to San Francisco); it didn’t work out for those two teams as they had thought (though Jimenez is still controlled for a few years, so it conceivably could; that trade was done for now but with an eye on 2012 and 2013) …but that’s not to say good trades for pitching prospects haven’t been made and couldn’t be made.
I would rather not.
Pitchers pan out far too scarcely to be dealing them already.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 12, 2011 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions
sorta...not really
when was the last time an organization had four pitchers in the top 50? and incredible depth of pitching behind that first tier?
if there was ever a time to trade pitching, it’d be now.
unless of course, you just don’t believe in trading pitching prospects period.
by blue bulldog on Sep 13, 2011 3:19 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd think of trading lesser pitching prospects
But not any of those top guys.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 13, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Im in heaven
any mention of Wheeler for Beltran will do it
by Counsellmember on Sep 12, 2011 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Reno....Karma's A Bitch
They had a pretty good option for a starter on Sunday in Wes Roemer (or even on Saturday instead of Hernandez), but screwed themselves when they released what was probably their best pitcher down the stretch.
have we heard
the justification for that yet?
I’m sure Roemer did something to completely tick of management.
"If you find a man or woman who sticks around after you tell them "I may be a demented horse, but I know CPR," you marry them. No questions asked." - kishi
by CaptainCanuck on Sep 12, 2011 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions
That was so bizarre.
I really wish we could find out what happened.
"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder
Reno's best starting pitchers
are on the Major League playoff roster (Miley and Owings)
Arizona Diamondbacks: 85-62
New England Patriots: 0-0
by freeland1787 on Sep 12, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Can't say this
Without knowing the details. We simply don’t know what happened. It’s rash to criticize the org about this.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 12, 2011 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions
It may be rash
But they’re not helping us out by giving us the facts/ decision path.
"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder
Wouldn't want to smear Roemer in public
That would seem really petty. If it was an off-the-field incident, it could ruin Roemer’s career and public reputation for the rest of his life, whereas in two years, nobody will remember the time that the Arizona Diamondbacks released their best Triple-A starter just before the playoffs when he had no likely big-league future.
Honestly, it’s just being classy.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 13, 2011 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
He'll
end up somewhere else….but, why get rid of him in the first place? I mean, even Matt Torra had trade value?
Goldschmidt happens.
If Mobile is eliminated
Parker might be called up.
Take out the "might"
and write “will”.
I survived the 2004 & 2010 seasons.
Bauer is AWESOME
Skaggs is AWESOME
Parker is AWESOME
I'm not so positive about that.
I’d understand why they’d do it… but I also understand why they wouldn’t.
"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder
Sorry it took so long
Been beyond busy back at work after an enjoyable week in Seattle. Ok, I went to the Osprey’s game 3 against the Great Falls Voyagers and came away wondering what happened to the team no one could beat in July and early August? Well, that’ll take some more pondering and asking around to find out. In the mean time, here are my thoughts on the 2011 Missoula Osprey’s final game.
It started off as a pitchers duel. Hernandez was lights out through the first 4 innings with his only run coming in the 3rd off an error and then a questionable balk call. I say questionable because Great Falls coaches and bench had been yelling balk for two straight innings, so I believe they finally coached the umpire crew (strange to see 4 umps on the field) into the call.
Hernandez was nearing his pitch count so they Osprey got Archie Bradley up in the pen during the bottom of the 4th. I loved watching his warm up routine; a couple of short tosses, then back farther, then farther until he was almost standing in the dugout. Beauty of it is each throw was a strike to the catcher, even from the farthest distance. He then began his tosses off the mound. From this I noticed quickly that his delivery is meticulous. Each throw does in fact appear as if it’s coming from the same slot in his arm angle, which I had read about in Sports Illustrated, but still had trouble believing. His motion was like butter, smooth and deliberate with each throw. As you can see, I was clearly very excited to see him come into the game.
Hernandez ran into trouble in the, 5th allowing a lead off double. He struck out the next batter but hung an 83 mph off speed pitch belt high over the center of the plate for a home run to deep left field. After a visit to the mound from Gil Heredia, Hernandez got the next batter to pop out in foul territory. But a subsequent double into left field brough Hector out to the mound and a call to the bullpen for Archie Bradley. Archie took about 4 or 5 warm up tosses when Hector approached him on the mound and sent him to the dugout. Archie was clearly upset and confused why he couldn’t pitch, as were the nearly 1200 people in attendance that night. At first I thought maybe they saw something they didn’t like in his throwing and fearing an injury were going to take him out. But word began to spread, which I confirmed through on of the Osprey GMs that Hector (Manager of the Year) forgot to put Archie Bradley on the active roster for game 3!!! This was the first serious mistake I think I’ve ever seen Hector make and I believe this made all the difference in the game.
We only had Archie up in the pen and since Archie came out due to an error on the managers part and not an injury, we were forced to bring Seth “Sizzle” Simmons into the game completely cold. He only got the 8 pitches he was allowed, but was clearly not enough to get his arm ready to throw. Seth walked the first batter on 4 pitches, none of which were near the strike zone and then allowed a run scoring single before being mercifully relieved by Keith Hessler. It was just down hill from there as the Voyagers would score three more than inning followed by at least one run each inning thereafter. The Osprey just couldn’t get the bats going after that 5th inning debacle!
Forgot to mention that in attendance last night were Mel Stottlemyre and Quinton McCracken. Mel told Hector that Archie could be used, if he needed him, in game 3. But the actual plan was to try and hold him out, win game 3 and START Archie in game 1 of the championship series. Oh well, it was a fun and exciting season in Osprey baseball and now you know the story that isn’t told in the recap or box score.
by Mizzoula Osprey Fan on Sep 13, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Strange.
Very strange. Must be incredibly disappointing for all, too.
He really just “forgot”?
Goldschmidt happens.
Yeah
That’s the story I’ve gotten from multiple sources. Such a shame, cause he likely would have gotten that third out and limited the damage.
by Mizzoula Osprey Fan on Sep 14, 2011 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Not A Surprise...
…there’s a reason why he was put here from Mobile. He’s awful….
by dbacksbaseball on Sep 14, 2011 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I beg to differ
Hector is actually a very good manager and even the best managers make mistakes from time to time. There has been a noticeable change in how the players have learned and responded to Hector vs. past managers Audo Vicente and Damon Mashore. Perhaps a position in the middle of the minors, such as Mobile, is not where Hector’s skills are best utilized?
by Mizzoula Osprey Fan on Sep 14, 2011 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Dunno,
but I do think I recall someone in past years talking about how he was a poor manager while with Mobile.
Maybe it was dbacksbaseball?
Goldschmidt happens.
Not to be overly critical, but...
he went from dominant to awful in five days.
Not entirely true. His command in the couple of starts before the disaster outing had been shaky, and towards the end of the one before his implosion, his command just flat out sucked. It just doesn’t show up in the box score. He showed signs of wearing down before it became truly obvious.
It’s incredibly easy to blame it on fatigue, and while I fully believe that it is, you’re right, it could just be a rough patch. But I wouldn’t take any chances.
"If you find a man or woman who sticks around after you tell them "I may be a demented horse, but I know CPR," you marry them. No questions asked." - kishi

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