Diamondbacks Farm Round-Up 8/8: Tough Luck Edition

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 9, 2011 9:01 AM EDT in Diamondbacks Farm Teams

Every now and then, a game comes by that demonstrates just how useless W/L totals are for evaluating starting pitchers in the 21st century when we have so many better and more individually-focused ways of analyzing performance. Monday's game between Yakima and Spokane in the Short-Season Northwest League was one of those game. Simply take a look at this line from a D-backs prospect in that game, a line that earned a loss:

Snakelet of the Day:

John Pedrotty (Short-Season-A): 6 IP, 6 H, 1 R (0 ER), 8:1 K:BB, 4:5 GO:AO

Triple-A: Reno 4, Nashville 6. (66-50) Right-hander Barry Enright took to the mound for Reno, pitching in the classic 6-inning, 3-run quality start that has been the subject of much debate here at the 'Pit. Enright posted a 4:4 K:BB ratio - unsettling, as Enright needs to do everything he can to not allow free passes - while allowing a home run and six hits. One definite sign of progress, though, was that Enright posted a shocking, but nice, 7:2 GO:AO ratio. You have to wonder if Barry's simply trying to do something - anything - different to get another shot at the big-leagues. After Kam Mickolio and Esmerling Vasquez worked scoreless innings, the human train wreck that has recently been Sam Demel came on and allowed three runs in the top of the ninth inning to cough up the lead and take the loss. Reno's offense had matched the Sounds with 11 hits, including doubles from Lucas May, Enright, and Michael Restovich. Mark Hallberg had a three-hit night for the Aces, while Cole Gillespie reached base three times, on a pair of singles and a walk.

Double-A: Mobile's game was postponed due to rain, they'll play a double-header tomorrow at Montgomery with Wes Roemer taking the hill for the first half.

Hi-A: Visalia 4, Lancaster 3. (51-63) I'm not sure whether to be elated or horrified by David Holmberg's start. Sure, the left-hander struck out eight batters in just 5.1 innings on the rubber, but five walks from a command and control left-hander is not what you want to see. Luckily, Holmberg gave up just four hits with those free passes, leading to three runs crossing the plate, although all of them were unearned. That would prove to be enough, though, as the Visalia bullpen trio of Kevin Munson, Mike Belfiore, and Evan Marshall - three of the top pure relief prospects in the system - shut down the JetHawks over 3.1 innings of scoreless relief, striking out four and walking just one. Holmberg's successful outing and the stalwart work of the bullpen was enough for the offense, which was left by a solo home run from journeyman Mark Reed and a pair of sacrifice flies from Matt Davidson, who also singled once. Reed had three hits, while Keon Broxton had two hits and a walk.

Low-A: Another rained-out game - J.R. Bradley will start the first half of a double-header tomorrow. Tomorrow's going to be a long report...

Short-Season-A: Yakima 0, Spokane 1. (17-34) Yakima's offense sucks. Poor John Pedrotty. The newly-drafted left-hander had the best outing of his professional career, posting a ridiculous 8:1 K:BB ratio and allowing just six hits and one unearned run in six innings, then the bullpen throws two scoreless innings of relief, and Pedrotty still gets tagged with the loss (#OutdatedStatistics). The terrible part is that Yakima actually reeled off more total bases than the Indians, 9-7, but couldn't capitalize on any of their opportunities. Justin Hilt, Westley Moss, and Raul Navarro each doubled, and Moss and Navarro also each added a single to boot, but the middle-of-the-order bats simply couldn't drive a run across the board.

Advanced-Rookie: Missoula 2, Great Falls 5. (30-17) The Osprey offense went mum just a day after cranking five home runs - go figure - receiving just a pair of doubles, one apiece from Jonathan Griffin and Ryan Court, and five hits overall. Unfortunately, the pitching couldn't make the diminished offensive output hold up, as starter Enrique Burgos fared poorly once again for Missoula. Burgos allowed eight hits in five innings with a 3:3 K:BB ratio and 7:2 GO:AO ratio, surrendering four runs and shooting his ERA on the year up to 6.56.

Low-Rookie: D-backs 5, Brewers 3. (13-26) It looks like the AZL D-backs got the scouting report on AZL Brewers backstop Adam Weisenburger: can hit for the level, but cannot throw to save his life. The D-backs ran wild on Weisenburger, going a perfect 8-8 in stolen base opportunities against the Brewers prospect. The lead thief was Socrates Brito, the center field speed demon, while Pedro Ruiz swiped two bases, and Wagner Mateo, John Leonard, and Derek Luciano each stole a base. Leonard and Jacob Williams led the way with three-hit games, but the D-backs offense failed to notch an extra base hit or draw a single walk in this contest. Instead, those eight stolen bases and solid outings from Jason Postill and Mike Lebo, who combined to strike out 10 and walk nobody in eight one-run innings, allowed the D-backs to scratch out a win.

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Holmberg

was doing fine until the sixth inning. three of his walks came there, and two of his ER i believe (i could be wrong about that second part)

i feel like this has happened to him a lot since coming to Visalia. threw five innings he had 8 K and only 2 BB. i’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, because it’s late in the season, probably tiring out a bit, and he’s in a really high league for his age.

by blue bulldog on Aug 9, 2011 9:24 AM EDT reply actions

That's all fine and dandy

But that doesn’t mean that the walks don’t count for me. He’s had a fair share of struggles ever since arriving at Visalia. Has he been any better for the Rawhide than Derek Eitel? There are huge differences in prospect value there, but that gives you a sense of how underwhelming his performance and rates are.

He’s just not a top-100 guy. Top-200, obviously, but this isn’t a finished product. BA predicted back in June or so that Holmberg could face struggles as a change-up pitcher in the Cal. It’s not discouraging, just bringing expectations back to earth.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 9, 2011 11:48 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

he's probably a top 150 guy

i think you’re selling him short a little…but i mean, this is probably more of a difference in opinion in how we evaluate prospects

he’s got a better K%, BB%, and Ks% than Carlos Martinez does after moving up to High A, and Carlos Martinez pitches in the much easier league

not saying he’s a top 20 pitching prospect (which Carlos Martinez probably is, just because scouts love his stuff, and he’s shown the K% ability in Low A that Holmberg hasn’t) but i think you’re underselling him if you think his rates are underwhelming. there’s nothing wrong with his rates. he’s just giving up more hits than usual, which is also normal in the Cal League.

fwiw, Eitel’s rates are much worse than Holmberg. he gives up way more hits per batter faced, gets fewer strikeouts and swinging strikeouts, and his walk percentage is barely better.

by blue bulldog on Aug 9, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Martinez is a ridulous comp

Whether or not you’re simply looking at rates. The 95-98 fireballer just over from the Dominican for his first year of US ball or the low-90s lefty who’s been in stateside ball for three years? Holmberg should be putting up much better rates than Martinez.

Those rates aside, the bottom line is that Holmberg is a #3 ceiling starter who is a teenager still and needs to get out of A-ball. That’s a low ceiling and a good bit of injury/velocity regression risk.

Eitel was also a bit absurd, but the bare K:BB is worryingly similar. Still, that also is secondary evidence compared to that last paragraph.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 9, 2011 12:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

i don't use comps

in the manner that you probably think of comps

i’m just saying, people struggle naturally when they move up a level. doesn’t make them any less of a prospect. and the only numbers that Holmberg has started struggling in, is an uptick in walk rate, and an uptick in hit rate. the hit rate is clearly directly explainable by the fact that he pitches in the Cal League, and the walk rate is probably indirectly explainable by the fact that he pitches in the Cal League, doesn’t want to get hit, and so doesn’t throw strikes as often.

Holmberg having a “#3 ceiling starter” doesn’t really mean anything to me. that just means he currently only has one plus pitch. Skaggs was also hit by the “#3 ceiling starter” label, because he only had one plus pitch (and i don’t think many people out there will give him, even today, the “#2 ceiling starter” label) at the end of last year, and he was still a consensus #75-80ish guy. of course, even with “only one plus pitch” he’s still striking out 30% of batters he’s facing, so screw the scouts on Tyler Skaggs.

again, i don’t think Holmberg is all that great. i do think (like mentioned below) that the scoreless inning streak, and the coverage he got from Baseball America probably makes him a little overrated. but he’s pretty decent. 22-24% K’s is nothing to scoff out. has to be Top 150 prospect for me.

by blue bulldog on Aug 9, 2011 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Your description of Skaggs' scouting history is completely false

He’s always had the #2 starter’s label. From the moment we acquired him, it was a #3 without projection, added (expected) velocity makes him a #2 potential starter. Holmberg has not.

What’s Holmberg’s plus pitch? His change-up? I’ve only really emphatically heard that from the D-backs guys, and every other change-up in the organization is plus to them, it seems. Which, don’t get me wrong, is fair – having positively-tinted scouting reports on your own guys go into the media is not just allowable, but I’d hope that’s what the organization would do. BA has his curve a step behind in development, and his fastball certainly isn’t plus at 91-93.

He’s fine. He’s a sure-fire top-200, and fringe top-150. You could make an argument for it. But you could really make an argument for a ton of D-backs being in that top-150 range. Someone with Holmberg’s stuff won’t be able to make the mistake of walking people at the major-league level. I’d rather have someone like Corbin who has never shown that walk-happy tendency, or Miley who is knocking on the doorstep of the majors by destroying Triple-A over the last couple months.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 10, 2011 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions

how is your description of Skaggs any different than mine?

he only has one plus pitch, so he’s hit with the #3 ceiling starter level. sure, he might reach #2 ceiling starter level someday, but that’s only if a second pitch of his is ends up rated plus, and i have not read a single report by anyone (FO excluded) who rates a second plus pitch for Skaggs so far (granted, part of this is probably because people were underwhelmed by the stuff he showed at the Futures Game). see below for BA’s initial scouting report on him, which i’m pretty sure is basically what we are both saying:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2011/2611158.html

my point is that, despite having what appears to be only one plus pitch, Skaggs is striking out 30% of BF, and 24% of them are going down swinging. i’m personally of the view that the whole prospect evaluation system where people are tacked on labels of #2 or #3 or back-end simply because of how one or two of their pitches rate, is very outdated. to me, the stats tell enough of the story

it doesn’t matter to me why people think Skaggs has one plus pitch or two plus pitches. what matters is that 30% K and 24% Ks with a solid BB%. that’s what makes him probably a top 15 prospect in baseball in my mind (and definitely a top 25).

obviously Holmberg’s numbers don’t come close to that, which is why he’s not a Top 100 prospect. but i just still think you’re selling him short a little. not a whole lot of pitching prospects have a 24% K rate, and are that young for their league (which means they have time to master their control further).

by blue bulldog on Aug 10, 2011 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions

I think starter projections

Might be a wee bit less robotic than you think. :-)

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 10, 2011 12:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

trying to look up the chats at BA

and…okay i was wrong

i definitely thought i read somewhere that BA still had him as a #3 guy, but this chat from Jim Callis says otherwise

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/chat/2011/2612041.html

still, i really believe strongly in my argument above. the ranking system is really blunt in my opinion, and i like the K% method a lot better. basically set up the framework of pitching prospects using K%, then adjusting for age, then further adjusting using scouting reports.

by blue bulldog on Aug 10, 2011 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Another way to think about it

A year ago, Skaggs was rated in the 80’s among prospects in the game. A year and an incredible draft later, Holmberg has no real strength over Skaggs (#3 ceiling, similar age as Skaggs and set to start 2012 in the same league, similar FB velocity) and a lot of things that Skaggs had Holmberg beat at (plus curve, obvious physical projection for fastball velocity, no “bad body” concerns).

Sickels had Skaggs as a B after 2010. Holmberg, being a clear step below to me, should be a B-. That doesn’t rule out Top-150 – I think it’s just not a given and more of a matter of personal preference.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 10, 2011 12:12 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Just maybe.........

Holmberg is being a little more tentative at Visalia than he was at South Bend. While at SB he had an awesome 81:13 K:BB ratio in 83 innings pitched. Simply put, he attacked the zone and had the stuff to dominate at that level. Since his arrival at Visalia he has a 44:19 K:BB (still very good) in 44 innings pitched. He’s still averaging a strike out per inning. The walks have increased somewhat which could simply be he’s trying to be a little to “fine” with his command. A closer look at last night shows three of the walks were later in the game………not sure where he was on pitch count but it could have been fatigue. As you know, I love the guy and ecstatic where he’s at for his age/experience.

by DBackFan4 on Aug 9, 2011 9:26 AM EDT reply actions

yeah

the last inning definitely hurt his numbers

i think he’s probably a slightly overrated prospect, due to the attention he’s gotten from the scouting community….which is why i would love to flip him in the offseason as part of a package to acquire a starter like Garza or something…Joe Saunders and David Holmberg for Matt Garza? i’d do that….

by blue bulldog on Aug 9, 2011 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions

The Off-Season.......

should prove very interesting regarding trades. I know KT wants to build this team around pitching and defense. To that end, he does not believe we can ever have too much pitching. However, this organization has added tons of arms in the past two drafts (Bauer, Bradley, Meo, Chafin, Price, Bradley, Rowland, Perry, Green, Shields, etc). They are all at various levels of development. Add these guys to existing prospects like Parker, Skaggs, Corbin, Holmberg, Miley, Enright, etc and we have plenty of trade pieces without depleting the system. So………….I agree with you that some of these pieces should be used to obtain a front line starter and potentially a big bat. Hot stove talk will be fun this year :-)

by DBackFan4 on Aug 9, 2011 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions

Hahahaha

It’s sound reasoning, but I still find it hilarious that every time there’s a hint that a guy might be overrated, you treat him like the plague.

Who’s to say that Garza isn’t overrated?

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 9, 2011 11:50 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

lol

yeah….i probably jump the gun on a bit on wanting to trade prospects that might be overrated

but i mean….at the end of the day that’s how you win right? figure out what is being overrated and sell….figure out what is being underrated and buy….

as for Garza…..i dunno…..i still get the feeling ERA determines a lot when it comes to market value

by blue bulldog on Aug 9, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions

True

What makes this a pain, sadly, is that as soon as you start shopping individual prospects, people get suspicious.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 10, 2011 12:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Cubs wouldn't

"Prince Fielder is too fat even for the Oakland A’s" - Billy Beane

by ol Pete on Aug 9, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions

You're probably right

But it isn’t far off. Holmberg is a B- prospect, while Saunders will give you half a year of decent starting pitching, anywhere from a 3.8 to a 4.4 ERA, and net the Cubs more prospects at the deadline after yet another inevitable sell-off. They aren’t getting back what they gave up for Garza if they move him. Throw in a Robby Rowland or David Nick and that might be as good as it gets for the Cubs.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 9, 2011 1:35 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

no

its far off. A B- prospect and some expensive mediocrity?

"Prince Fielder is too fat even for the Oakland A’s" - Billy Beane

by ol Pete on Aug 9, 2011 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Has Garza been pooping golden eggs all year long and I've just missed it?

A B- prospect, a C+ prospect, and a fringe-#3 starter for a guy with a career FIP over 4 and career ERA just under 4? Are you sure Garza is that much better? Because the numbers don’t seem to be.

That package sounds fair to me. If you’re sold that Garza is going to be a consistent 3.15 xFIP guy for the rest of his career after his breakout season just happened to coincide with a move out of the AL East, I’ve got this bridge on the upper-East side that you might be interested in.

He was the same FIP>4 guy with Minnesota before his move to Tampa, and I’d say he’s probably a 3.6-3.8 ERA guy in the NL Central/West. Saunders is around a 4.1-4.2 guy in all likelihood, and has also been plenty successful as an AL pitcher. A B- prospect plus a C+ prospect makes up that difference.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 9, 2011 4:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

this

Garza has never had a year where he’s put up gaudy ERA numbers to drive up his trading price, whereas, hopefully, Joe Saunders will be coming off a nice ERA year.

Garza has the upside though. because if we get that 3.15 xFIP guy (with it translating to a similar ERA) we will have been able to get another top-of-the-rotation rental for one year (which also means we won’t have to rush Skaggs up if one of our pitchers start sucking). a rotation of Garza, IPK, Huddy, Bauer, Parker, would make me drool.

by blue bulldog on Aug 9, 2011 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions