SB Nation Arizona Editor's Pick
Some perspective on Ryan Roberts
by njjohn on Aug 31, 2011 6:52 PM EDT
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What Diamondbacks fan doesn't love Tatman? Who? Raise your hand and out yourself. If you dared to raise your hand, don't come crying to me when Rockstarr and her cronies have beaten you like a homemade custard.
We all love Roberts, but just how good has he been this season? And, as has been questioned in recent posts, is it for real? Can we count on him going forward? After the jump we'll explore those questions.
Roberts came into 2011 as a 30 year old with one paltry season under his belt of more than 70 ABs (2009 when he logged 351). Before 2009 (at the late age of 28) Roberts had basically not even seen the light of day in the bigs (27 total ABs). And Sean Burroughs and Tony Abreu snickered at his 2010 production where he managed a meager 577 OPS and 50 OPS+ in 66 ABs. Kevin Towers was so confident in Roberts that he snatched up every aging IF he could off the waiver wire in a desperate attempt to find someone who might possibly resemble a real MLB third basemen.
Then 2011 happened. No matter what metric you look at, Roberts has been outstanding. For those who like the good ol' fashioned counting stats, in 3/4+ of a season, Roberts has contributed 17 HR, 52 RBI, 16 SB, .258 AVG, and a 440 SLG. That's darn good -- certainly above average production for a MLB third bagger.
But this actually doesn't highlight three areas Roberts has particularly excelled in: pitches per plate appearance, OBP, and defense. Roberts is #30 in the NL in p/pa at 3.89 (4th among MLB 3rd basemen). Having a player who works counts is an asset to any lineup, but perhaps it's particularly impressive given the level of pitching in the NL West. And those extra pitches per AB haven't gone to waste as Roberts has coaxed 58 walks in his 471 ABs, a surprising 12.3% rate, especially for a player who doesn't have prolific power. This has pushed Roberts to a 352 OBP, good for 5th among MLB third baggers (and 29th among NL position players).
Finally, his defense. Roberts, a veritable swiss army knife was thrown into the role at 3B essentially because no one else stuck there, but he has thrived on defense. According to Baseball Reference he's added .6 dWAR value to the club. UZR likes his defensive value even more, having him pegged at 2.5 UZR this year (and 1.9 at 2B).
So, what about Roberts going forward? Can we count on a 30 year old breakout player to repeat this performance? It's hard to tell, but I'm inclined to think that Roberts won't fall off a cliff. His 348 wOBA backs up the legitimacy of his OBP and his 282 BABIP this year is actually a touch unlucky. His BB rate is a surprising 11.3% for his career, so that skill seems unlikely to diminish. And his 182 ISO shows that the power Roberts has displayed this year is more a result of opportunity than luck.
In sum, in Roberts I think we have a player who we should be able to expect at least three more years of above average production out of, whether that's at 2B or 3B. He's a good defensive player, with above average power, and well above average plate discipline. He hasn't only been a huge part of the DBacks success in 2011, but should be going forward, and his success may well mean we're able to nab an upper tier 2B or 3B in 2012 that we wouldn't have been able to otherwise. I look forward to many more happy years with Tatman.
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GREAT article, Njjohn :)
I like what you had to say and couldn’t agree more! TATMAN has done an excellent job this season and I believe he will thrive for a few more :)
"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth
i'd honestly be really surprised if he was above average next year
when people have career years, it’s a much safer bet that they will regress to the mean, as opposed to maintain that ability, even if the peripherals look solid
i mean….Aubrey Huff and Andres Torres are the best examples of this, when we look at our rivals in the standings
That's the question, isn't it?
It’s most definitely a career year, but how far off his ‘baseline’ is it? The guy has basically only had one other year in the majors (2009), so it’s very difficult to ascertain what that baseline is. But frankly he’s pretty much right on track with what he did in 2009 this year.
It’s fine to be realistic, but I’d expect a better counter argument from you than cherry picking two comps and toss out quite a bit of statistical evidence that appears to say the contrary.
"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder
i don't know whether to be flattered or insulted :)
okay let me try again
1) there are some statistical evidence to the contrary. his power being replicated next year is definitely suspect, as he’s hitting very high HR/FB relative to his short career. part of that is a new swing approach in my opinion, where he drops his back, pulls the ball, and launches. but this is a gimmick in my opinion. once scouts notice this more, they will just consistently through outside on RyRo, where he has a significantly less chance to do damage.
2) i honestly think Andres Torres is an interesting comp. career journeyman, tweaks his swing approach, and just goes nuts for a year and a half. and then he completely falls back down to his baseline. yes, this is a cherry pick. but that doesn’t mean the cherry pick is not representative of the population of journeymen who have a career year, at large. the obvious counterexample to this is Jose Bautista. but, i’d be willing to give good odds, that the journeymen with career years who end up like Torres is far greater than proportion than the journeymen who end up like Bautista. i obviously haven’t done the research to support this conclusion, but like i said, i’d be willing to give good odds for that.
3) he’s a journeyman. these guys turn out to be useful every once in a while, but the industry as a whole does not tend to be wrong about the baseline of guys like this. i can only find his last three years of minor league service, but they aren’t impressive at all. he was hitting at 115-120 wRC+ as a very old “prospect” in the PCL.
4) i like the plate discipline, and think he’s definitely capable of 10-12% BB rate next year. the 17% contact is also alright. but drop in HR’s is going to have an adverse effect on his BA if his BABIP remains constant. i guess for me, a reasonable projection of him would be 250/340/400. most worried about the potential for ISO fluctuation next year. i’m not sure how good that is at 3B in terms of WAR….but while i think it’s reasonably likely for him to get to 2 WAR next year (the measure of an average player), i have a hard time seeing him exceed that.
This is of course, not to say that a 2 WAR 3B or 2B is bad. That’s hella useful on a team like ours, and I’ll take it.
I truly didn't mean to insult you...
And this is a much better rebuff. Although, I’m not quite sure how much you’re rebuffing me when your final anlysis is that “it’s reasonably likely for him to get to 2 WAR next year” — that’s a far cry from the Huff and Torres comps (-1.2 and .9 WAR this year, respectively).
I think your point about his swing is the most significant point to be made. When he’s trying to hit it hard, it’s clear he goes up trying to yank the ball, and that change in his swing could be a real achilles heel.
"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder
i just realize
i have like a bajillion grammar mistakes in my last post :(
irregardless of grammer misteaks...
I exspecially am also concerned with his power.
yeah
i mean, i’m optimistic that RyRo can be a 2 WAR guy
not sure what you meant by above average, because usually 2 WAR is anecdotally considered MLB average for a position, so i guess i was just saying i don’t think he’s going to be much better than 2 WAR next year
which is perfectly okay.
By above average
I mean anything right above 2. If you were to put a gun to my head my guess would be 2.7 in 2012, 2.4 in 2013, and 2.1 in 2014. At that point I think he’ll slip below average and soon thereafter below replacement level.
I just was responding to the Aubrey Huff comp more than anything. If you think Roberts is more a 2 WAR player next year and then will decline down to 1.5, then 1, I understand that. But thinking he’d drop as precipitously as Huff is something I don’t think the peripherals support. Roberts defense alone, I think, will protect him from tanking that significantly.
"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder
nice
i’m glad to know with a gun to your head, you’d give two significant figures to your estimates :)
2 WAR for 3 more seasons?
I think as a fan I’d be fine with 2-2.5 WAR seasons for the next couple years. My hope is that Roberts doesn’t fall into the suckitude of Torres’ proportions and holds down the 3B spot for the next couple years until Matt Davidson comes up.
For all the love
The Dread Pirate (I’ll never, ever call him “Tatman”) gets on this site and elsewhere, I still think a lot of people don’t realize just how unlikely his 2011 actually is. A couple years ago, he was a minor league journeyman rapidly approaching his 30s, and before the season he was a mediocre bench player who was not expected to make the team out of ST.
Yet, he has probably been one of the three best players in the lineup (along with Upton and Montero). Will it continue? I tend to agree with bb on that one, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t enjoy it while it lasts.
Rec’d for an awesome write-up.
2007: Anybody, Anytime
2011: Justin Upton, All the Time
by Zavada's Moustache on Sep 1, 2011 2:06 AM EDT reply actions
The Dread Pirate
Is a better nickname. Just not into the colloquial DBacks fan vocabulary as much. I apologize for not supporting it as I ought.
"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder
On the Plus Side
Robert’s intangibles are another plus that don’t get always measured in his stats. His high energy, baseball smarts, aggressiveness, good teammate, baserunning, versatility. Ever since we acquired Roberts and I began looking at his minor league history, I was always a little surprised he wasn’t able to keep some kind of major league job. He always looked like a fairly solid player coming up, nothing super special or sexy, but just a ballplayer that could help a club. And then having seen him play a lot in 2009 I felt vindicated in my personal opinion of him. Then when he was left to linger in AAA given what a bad team we had in 2010 was just remarkable to me.
Roberts always looked like one of those guys who deserved more of an opportunity than he was ever given, especially in light of how many crappy ballplayers were taking up space on major league rosters. His 2011 is perhaps as much opportunity as anything, and while I can’t pretend to know as much as the various GMs who refused to give him more of an opportunity previously, his success this year is not all that out of line with what I felt he was capable of, short of the home runs perhaps.
So I’m totally on board njjohn on this. I think he will be productive for the next few years. Blue’s points are well taken and are clearly based on decent logic, but I don’t see any way he regresses badly. He has way too many positive attributes to be anything but a significant contributor in just about any role they put him in. “Ballplayers” who can hit and run and field at average and above are simply valuable. And his versatility is actually an attribute that will have additional value in the off-season as it will allow management to go find more talent that isn’t necessarily tied to a specific position. I love this guy and to me he epitomizes the word “ballplayer.” The kind of guy that just helps you win games.
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Sep 1, 2011 11:55 AM EDT reply actions 4 recs
+1
RyRo definitely has infectious personality and awesome makeup
there’s definitely additional value there for that
by blue bulldog on Sep 1, 2011 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
and by makeup
I believe you mean this:
"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder
by njjohn on Sep 1, 2011 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
lol
nice tat
not sure what he’s a “clan” of…but nice tat regardless
He's not a member of any "clan"
That tat is a Japanese symbol, meaning “Family”…he told me this himself!
"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth
by Rockkstarr12 on Sep 1, 2011 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions
okay
1) Someone probably told him it’s a Japanese symbol. I guess that’s not false, but really what they should have told him, is that it’s Japanese kanji, which are Chinese characters.
2) Clan is probably a better translation. It means “family” in the sense of you’re a part of a giant ancient family with traditions and all that junk…..aka…..clan. It can also be used to denote an ethnic group. So like….you would use that character when talking about Chinese people as “Han People”. The character is meant to be used in large scale schemes. You would never use that character in the context of talking to coworkers “Hey guys, I’m about to go home and chill with the family,” or “I’m going to take my family out to the ballgame tonight.”
by blue bulldog on Sep 1, 2011 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions
That's what he told me...so I don't question what he says
"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth
by Rockkstarr12 on Sep 1, 2011 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Ask his wife about that Japanese symbol and she'll tell you what he told me
"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth
is RyRo's wife Japanese?
and if she is….are you sure she’s not just trying to simplify it for you because you might not understand the complexity of the character?
i think you have three options:
1) you can choose to not question what a random baseball player and his wife tells you about a “Japanese” symbol
2) you can choose to not question what a person who speaks/reads Chinese everyday tells you about a Chinese character-turned “Japanese” symbol
3) you can choose to question both these sources and try to understand it yourself
No, she's an all-American Texan woman
And like I said, I am just relaying what both Ryan and Kim have answered about that tattoo…Kim and Ryan’s mom also have that same tat somewhere on them too!
"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth
Who really
cares if Roberts knows the historical, cultural, linguistic meaning of it.
Tomorrow is another day.
what part of this dialogue
gave you the implication that i care about what Roberts thinks?
i have absolutely zero ability to provide perspective to Roberts. i had some small probability of providing perspective to Rockkstarr. so i tried to. and failed. and so i’ve stopped.
Let's
now have an argument about arguments.
Tomorrow is another day.
by soco on Sep 4, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
i'm confused
why are you upset about this?
did i say something wrong?
it's a cool tat is all that matters
"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth
Some people do
There are plenty of Japanese-Americans who think the idea of using their culture without knowing what it means is ridiculous and kind of insulting. There are websites devoted to American tattoos, what the people with those tattoos think they mean, and what they really mean. Roberts’ tattoo may be an accurate representation of the word he thinks it represents, or it may not. He wouldn’t be the first to get Asian characters tattooed on his body, only to realize what he actually has written on himself is something really embarrassing or nonsensical. Shawn Marion would be a prime example.
by azshadowwalker on Sep 9, 2011 2:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I would think that Ryan did research beforehand
"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth
by Rockkstarr12 on Sep 10, 2011 2:24 AM EDT up reply actions
*sigh
i could tell you otherwise….but, is there even any point in trying to convince you otherwise?
by blue bulldog on Sep 10, 2011 6:30 AM EDT up reply actions
You know what?
Why are we STILL arguing about this? This is getting old…let’s move on…
Baseball fans are junkies, & their heroin is the statistic. ~Robert S. Wieder
by Rockkstarr12 on Sep 11, 2011 4:02 AM EDT up reply actions
RE Shawn Marion
for my money, “Demon Bird Moth Balls” is far more badass than some boring initials.
by Counsellmember on Sep 10, 2011 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes
According to Ryan, it was something they did as a family…sort of like doing a family crest in a way…where each member gets the same design tattooed on their body as a way to tell they’re related. Some people dig it, some don’t. That’s just the way it is.
"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth
I think several of us would beg to differ on this one point !
nothing super special or sexy
There is something about him, a magnetic attraction, his external bad boy image while seeming to be a really good guy, the way he never gives up, um, er, I could go on…..
Baseball Weirdo
by AZDBACKR on Sep 2, 2011 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
THIS OMG.
I should have a mfin theme song.
by emilylovesthedbacks on Sep 3, 2011 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Did you forgot to switch accounts?
:P
I survived the 2004 & 2010 seasons.
Bauer is AWESOME
Skaggs is AWESOME
Parker is AWESOME
How confident is everybody in Roberts?
I love the guy, but am worried that an infield next year of Goldschmidt, Hill, Drew (diminished by injury?) and Roberts is not good enough. Sure, Goldie could continue to improve his K rate and keep up the awesome power, Hill could return to his previous All-Star form, Drew could be as good as new, and Roberts could continue this year’s great play.
Or Goldie could be overmatched in the bigs, Hill revert to 2010/most of 2011 form, Drew could be slowed down, and Roberts could prove to be “meh”. The problem is Drew is really the only proven IFer we have, and he his coming off a horrendous injury. I’m almost afraid to see the “wily veterans” KT brings in next year to shore up the IF.
A few points to add
The team is 63-45 ,.583 Win % when he starts
15-14, .517 Win% when he doesn’t
I know…thats a junk stat…but I like it anyway.
Improbable seasons by teams not expected to win are always punctuated by guys having career years. Thats most likely the case here, but even if it is, it’s still really enjoyable to watch. I am concerned by the “lean” as described above. He also seems to be chasing balls up in the zone too much too.
It would be nice if he could have another 12 game hot streak like the one he had to open the season. In his first 12 games he hit .382/.462/.765 . In his next 112 he’s hit .245/343/.408
But even if he doesn’t if he just maintains his last 112 games pace, thats still decent enough for his position and the .343 OBP is needed at the top of the order.
It would also be nice if there were more left handed pitchers in the league.
Vs LHP .936 OPS 139 PA’s
Vs RHP .733 OPS 336 PA’s
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
by shoewizard on Sep 2, 2011 9:44 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
good assessment
i pretty much agree with all of these points
by blue bulldog on Sep 2, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Pretty much says it all.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 2, 2011 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions
and.... another point
Roberts game tying HR on Sunday sure turned things around in the 8th
leading to the WIN and even better, to take 2 of 3 in the series against the Giants
Baseball Weirdo
by AZDBACKR on Sep 4, 2011 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
How many
of those 29 games he didn’t start featured Melvin Mora, Sean Burroughs, etc. playing 3B?
Goldschmidt happens.
This!
"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth
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