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What was the logic behind the Richie Sexson trade?

I want to revisit what was clearly the most disastrous trade in the history of the Diamondbacks franchise, because I'm hoping someone around here will be able to explain to me the logic behind it. I wasn't actively following the D-Backs in 2003-2004, so I didn't get to hear the argument for the trade at the time. Looking back at it today, it looks absolutely inexplicable.

In December 2003, the Diamondbacks traded Junior Spivey, Craig Counsell, Lyle Overbay, Chad Moeller, Chris Capuano, and Jorge De La Rosa to the Milwaukee Brewers for Richie Sexson, Shane Nance, and a PTBN who turned out to be Noochie Varner. Sexson proceeded to get injured and miss virtually the entire season, playing only three games before departing Arizona as a free agent. So the trade was disastrous because Sexson got injured. But wasn't it also disastrous even if he had panned out?

Star-divide

First, let's look at what we got in the trade:

- Richie Sexson: one of the all-time great baseball players, Sexson had belted 45 home runs in 2003 for Milwaukee and put up a slash line of .272/.379/.548.  Clearly a piece worth acquiring.  On the other hand, he was due to become a free agent at the end of 2004, so we were paying for only a year of team control.

- Shane Nance: a 26-year-old relief pitcher with a 4.81 ERA in 2003 (and an even worse 5.84 ERA for us the next year).  Not worth even a single player we sent to the Brewers. According to Wikipedia, "He is now an outstanding Outside Salesman for Flow-Zone LLC."

- Noochie Varner: a career Minor Leaguer who only reached AAA once in his career.  No longer plays baseball, but according to this story, "He just might still be active in the online poker circuit."

The upshot: we got Richie Sexson, and really only Richie Sexson.  And only for one year.

For this, we gave up six real, live players.  Five of them were Major Leaguers, with four being everyday players.  Here's a closer look:

- Junior Spivey: our starting second baseman, Spivey put up a slash line of.255/.326/.433 for the D-backs in 2003.  The previous year, he'd batted .301 and made the All-Star Game (admittedly thanks to D-backs and ASG manager Bob Brenly).  Though he later flamed out of the majors, Spivey was viewed at the time as a good player and a solid contributor.

- Craig Counsell: A solid veteran, two-time World Series champ, key clubhouse presence, popular with fans, and the definition of a clutch hitter.  Counsell was coming off an injury-plagued 2003 season, but in his last healthy season before the trade (2002) he had posted a slash line of .282/.348/.351.  Our everyday third baseman when he was healthy.

- Lyle Overbay: A 27-year-old first baseman with power potential  The D-backs weren't particularly hot on Overbay and had relegated him to the minors for parts of 2003 (particularly after we acquired Shea Hillenbrand), but he'd still managed to put up stats of .276/.365/.402.  Definite trade bait, at the very least.

So as you can see, the FO decided to trade our entire infield for one year of Richie Sexson.  Well, all right, a player like Sexson doesn't come cheap.  But when you realize we're only halfway through the players we gave up...

- Chad Moeller: previously our backup catcher, Moeller platooned with Robby Hammock at the position in 2003.  He put up a respectable .268/.335/.435, though Hammock was somewhat better at.282/.343/.477.

- Chris Capuano: of all the players we gave up, I find this one the most inexplicable.  Called up from Triple-A near the end of the season, the 24-year-old Capuano had gone 2-4 with a 4.64 ERA as a starting pitcher.  The numbers weren't great, but it was Capuano's first year back from Tommy John surgery, and the stuff was clearly promising; Capuano has remained a back-of-the-rotation starter ever since, and was an All-Star in 2006.  Given Elmer Dessens' bloated 5.07 ERA in the starting rotation, and the injuries to Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, one would think the D-backs would have wanted to develop a guy like Capuano.

- Jorge De La Rosa: you can't really blame the FO for not realizing De La Rosa had frontline starter potential given that we had just acquired him a couple of weeks earlier.  Still, he was dealing in Boston's farm system, putting up a 2.98 record across AA-AAA and giving up less than a hit per inning during that span.  Clearly a shutdown reliever type at the very least.

Looking at this list, here's my question: why would anyone make this trade, ever, under any circumstances?  Richie Sexson was a great player.  We were getting only one year of Richie Sexson.  Was one year of Richie Sexson worth our entire infield, including two guys (Spivey and Overbay) who had years of team control left?  Was one year of Richie Sexson worth that plus our starting catcher, a promising starting pitcher (also under long-term team control), and a shutdown reliever who was way better than the one we were getting from Milwaukee?  Is any player, ever, worth selling the heart and soul of your team for a single year of control?  What possible argument could be made for this trade, even assuming Sexson had a career year?

I don't know much about stats or about the team during these years.  I do know that the trade was disastrous for us, but I want to know how anybody could ever have seen it as potentially non-disastrous.  How was this ever a good idea?

Comment 20 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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I Agree.

He was the true prize of the trade.

by rfffr on Aug 8, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

Honestly

The only thing of legitimate future value we gave up wound up being Jorge De La Rosa… who would have thunk that?

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 3, 2011 1:06 AM EDT reply actions  

You don't think

Counsell, Overbay, or Capuano was legitimate value? Wasn’t Overbay one of the league leaders in BA at one point?

by Nonpartisan on Aug 3, 2011 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

They had legitimate value at the time

And another move would have likely produced more for us, but it isn’t like we gave up a lot more forthcoming production than we received. Overbay has never had a 3 fWAR season, Counsell re-joined Arizona in 2005, and Capuano one season in which he recorded an fWAR of 2 or higher because of injuries. Would I rather have those guys than that one year of Sexson? Well duh. But was it a catastrophic, future-crippline trade? Absolutely not.

Other moves, including the signings of Byrnes and Ortiz, were far worse. If you’re looking for a trade, I’m not so sure the Sexson deal was worse than trades that sent Carlos Quentin and Scott Hairston – controllable, talented, cheap players – away for peanuts. If Kevin Eichhorn becomes a legitimate back-end starter for the Tigers, I would think it would be a mortal lock that the Galarraga trade would have a more negative effect on the franchise.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 3, 2011 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions   2 recs

+1

on the Carlos Quentin trade

by blue bulldog on Aug 3, 2011 5:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

+1

for all of it

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder

by njjohn on Aug 3, 2011 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

See

This is what I was hoping for. I’m not at a stage where I really grasp the advanced stats, so I really appreciate your breaking it down for me. Thanks!

by Nonpartisan on Aug 3, 2011 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Glad to help!

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 3, 2011 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Another +1 for the Quentin trade

If you can even call that a trade. Yeah, getting Sexson for all those players was lousy. But, at least he hit a monster home run off his own face on the scoreboard. LOL. I promised I would stop complaining about the Quentin trade now that we seem to have gotten Hudson for a steal. But, it is hard to stop.

by SongBird on Aug 3, 2011 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

It was bad...

I remember Sexson going down. Ugh, no fun.

I got nothin'.

by Bcawz on Aug 3, 2011 2:28 AM EDT reply actions  

I'm STILL not over the Sexon trade.

☣ "I like to keep a bottle of stimulant handy in case I see a snake, which I also keep handy." ☣
DO IT FOR DREW

by hotclaws on Aug 3, 2011 6:30 AM EDT reply actions  

why?

(see below)

♫ i've entered a snake of pits with knives in the back of me ♫ can't call you or on you no more when they're attacking me ♫

by marionette on Aug 3, 2011 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

What the heck is a Noochie Varner?

"First of all, Life Sucks. Alright? Period. Done deal. You got it? There's your lesson. Enjoy it."-Coach McGuirk, Home Movies.

by BulldogsNotZags on Aug 3, 2011 9:22 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

I chuckled. rec'd.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 3, 2011 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Beats me, but it sounds serious.

"I found Rome a city of bricks and left it a city of marble."
Caesar Augustus

by NASCARbernet on Aug 7, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

so you can’t figure it out? sexson turned 29 in an off season after putting up 45/124/.927, back to back all star appearances, and a 2001 of 45/125 for milwaukee who wasn’t going to pay him big $ after that great value ($1.1m, $3.1m, $5.1m). (colangelo’s) diamondbacks wanted to keep winning and to keep selling tickets and were willing to pay for the chance, and milwaukee wanted to get something for the stud entering his prime while they could.

sexson put up 39/121/.910 the next season for seattle too. at $6m, which was $2m+ less than his “absent” year in arizona.

before he broke his shoulder on a swing against maddux at bank one, richie had 23 rbi in 21 games, 9 hrs in 100 pa’s, and a typical for him .910 OPS. diamondbacks were ready to sweep the previously 12-6 cubs after beating them 10-1 and 9-0. (a cub team coming off the nl championship collapse to ‘03 series winner marlins.) in game three, finley homered off maddux immediately after sexson’s injury, and then again off mecker to tie it 3-3. but matt mantei gave up the game winning hr to alex gonzales in the ninth, so instead of 10-11, they finished the day 9-12. they would go 42-99 the rest of the way, although i think sexson ill-advisedly tried to bat again a time or two, only re-injuring himself. of course, there were injuries aplenty (and more) to follow.

i was upset that capuano was included, and de la rosa was a promising lefty as well. but capuano had already shown us something. sure enough, after sexson was gone, capuano had a couple of great years. now he’s back and about as effective as de la rosa has been w/ decent time (innings) in colorado (except for his plus numbers despite down time this year). spivey, counsell, and moeller (and even overbay, pretty much) were known quantities. no big loss, even combined, though with all the baby backs that were eventually required, one could argue that they certainly wouldn’t have lost 111. but as it happened, it wouldn’t have made a difference, other than costing them the upton pick (as mentioned).

the plan was for sexson to have another typically great year where he’d be top 10 in mvp voting (less competition in nl bats) and get the big payday from colangelo, at worse. at best he’d find another gear in his 30s like gonzo at hitter friendly bank one and still provide “value”. this is where they really lucked out, as seattle wound up paying him an additional $44m for half production after his first year back from injury. the mariners certainly didn’t plan on that. slightly different timing, and you people would have a better beef, but it still boils down to bad luck.

they traded a bunch of mediocre everydays and a couple of lefty prospects for an all star theoretically entering his prime. if capuano and sexson had both had health and longevity, it might well have been a “worse” trade due to sexson’s massive salary under colangelo, who knows?

i was basically against it, but i fail to see the trauma.

♫ i've entered a snake of pits with knives in the back of me ♫ can't call you or on you no more when they're attacking me ♫

by marionette on Aug 3, 2011 4:26 PM EDT reply actions  

The one-year part is what really gets me

No matter how well Sexson did, at the end of 2004 we were still going to be lacking all the players mentioned here (Nance and Varner excepted). How was that a good idea? Those mediocre everydays were far better than their replacements for the most part (except Shea Hillenbrand at 1b, but he was also leaving at the end of 2004). It’s not just that we were risking everything on Sexson being able to carry the team; at the end of the season we were going to lose everything anyway. That’s what I don’t get.

by Nonpartisan on Aug 3, 2011 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

colangelo gamble

typical of him, as it would have been typical to break the bank to re-sign sexson as well. i wasn’t worried about that, i never thought it would be one year. and i disagree that those mediocres were far better.

i’ve brought it up here before, but effectively replacing sexson with troy glaus compounded the “problem”. he wasn’t in sexson’s league for upside, to me. went from 340 total bases in 2000 ,to 258 tb in the series year 2002, followed by two injury years immediately preceding the diamondbacks signing. they were expected another injury guy to carry the team in lieu of a guy that actually possibly could’ve, but for his own (freak) injury. (it’s good that he had solid seasons and avoided injury until stl, but it didn’t look good to me at the time.)

my point was that, unlucky as the sexson injury seemed, it could have been worse if he performed like he did the next year in seattle, and colangelo had re-signed him (as i would’ve expected, as much as you wouldn’t have), and he injured himself freakishly right after the extension. it may have been lucky it was only one year.

♫ i've entered a snake of pits with knives in the back of me ♫ can't call you or on you no more when they're attacking me ♫

by marionette on Aug 3, 2011 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

A few comments. . . . .

- as noted, the players given up hardly were considered stars or top of the line prospects. Counsell is Counsell, Spivey was kind of old for his breakout year of 2002, Moeller was a career backup, Overbay was easily the best of the group and there were doubts about how good he would really ever be (accurate as it turns out) and Capuano & de la Rosa were both pitchers and subject to TINSTAPP. Sexson was a middle of the order masher that, combined with Gonzo and Finley, should have made the DBacks an offensive force that had been missing the prior few seasons (even the 2001 team wasn’t anything great offensively)
- that said, one has to look at all the moves that off-season in combination to get a clear picture. Trading for Sexson was only possible when they jettisoned Schilling’s salary. Throw in the SChilling trade and it starts to get ugly since they got nothing for Schilling.
- finally, any analysis of the rest of the 2004 season is tainted by the DBacks obviously throwing in the towel at the trade deadline and trading Finley while telling Gonzo to go ahead with elbow surgery and miss the rest of the season. The 2nd half of 2004 was just alughable with Juan Brito finishing the year as the primary catcher and guys like Luis Terrero, Andy Green, Doug Devore, Josh Kroeger, Jerry Gil and even 36 YO, career minor leaguer Alan ZInter getting playing time to end that season. Most of those guys, that 2004 season was their only MLB experience. Seriously, go look at the starters toward the end of that season: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ARI/2004.shtml

by golfmanthee on Aug 3, 2011 8:33 PM EDT reply actions  

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