Diamondbacks Farm Round-Up 8/25: Him Again? Edition
The third overall pick of the 2011 draft was on the mound again yesterday. Guess what happened next...
Snakelet of the Day:
Trevor Bauer (Double-A): 5 IP, 4 H, 1 R (1 ER), 7:1 K:BB, 4:2 GO:AO
Triple-A (seven innings): Reno 2, Tucson 0. Well, this certainly wasn't what I would have expected. Aces right-hander Kevin Mulvey was spectacular in his seven-inning "complete game" in the first half of a double-header, giving up just two hits - both singles - and no runs while striking out four with no walks. The Reno bats took that pitching performance and ran with it, led by a home run from Ryan Langerhans and doubles from Cole Gillespie and Andy Tracy, although Gillespie was the only Aces hitter to reach base more than once by also drawing a walk.
Triple-A (seven innings): Reno 1, Tucson 3. (73-60) Langerhans again shined, going 2-2 with a double, a homer, and a walk, but the rest of the offense managed just three hits, all of which were singles. Lefty Tom Layne couldn't make a one-run offensive output hold up, allowing two runs in five innings on five hits, a strikeout, and an 11:2 GO:AO ratio.
Double-A: Mobile 2, Jackson 1. (78-51) Trevor Bauer did it again. Bauer worked five strong innings, posting a ho-hum 7:1 K:BB ratio and allowing just four hits and a run. With the outing, Bauer brought his Double-A numbers up to 15 IP, 2.40 ERA, 12 H, 23:5 K:BB, 1 HR, while his pro season numbers split between Visalia and Mobile are now 24 IP, 2.63 ERA, 19 H, 40:9 K:BB, 2 HR. The guy is just crazy-good. However, with 24 innings under his belt and the team looking to add only another 30-35 innings in pro ball this year, this may actually be Bauer's last outing for Mobile before a call-up. If he does make another appearance for the BayBears - August 30 is when his spot in the rotation is next up - I would expect it to be shorter than five innings, preparing him for a short-appearance relief stint with the D-backs come September. For those interested, John Sickels had a Prospect of the Day feature on Bauer at his site yesterday.
As for the offense, Adam Eaton led the day with a single, two walks, and a stolen base, although he actually did not score either of the BayBears runs (he did drive one in, though). Mobile received some power from Josh Ford and Taylor Harbin, who each doubled, with Ford's hit scoring Harbin.
Hi-A: Visalia 2, High Desert 8. (59-70) Southpaw David Holmberg became another victim of the Cal League, giving up three home runs in just five innings on the mound in one of his worst outings of the season. Holmberg gave up just five hits, but four walks and those three long balls were his undoing, despite striking out six Mavericks batters. At the dish, Mark Reed had a three-hit game, while Alfredo Marte and Matt Davidson each hit doubles to try to provide some pop to the lineup, but two runs in a Cal League game is rarely enough to record a W.
Low-A: South Bend 1, Fort Wayne 7. (61-67) South Bend's offense received plenty of power, as Gerson Montilla and Ramon Castillo each tripled, with Ender Inciarte adding a double. Ultimately, though, the offense fell flat on its face, succumbing to the power arm of TinCaps right-hander Keyvious Sampson and the Fort Wayne bullpen. Yazy Arbelo k'd in all four of his plate appearances, while Matt Helm, Montilla, and Roberto Ortiz each struck out thrice. Silver Hawks righty J.R. Bradley was solid in his own right, giving up just one earned run in 4.1 innings, but his 3:2 K:BB ratio and four unearned runs show that he has his share of struggles.
Short-Season-A: Yakima 6, Everett 0. (28-40) Right-hander Yiomar Camacho turned in his best all-around outing for Yakima, throwing five scoreless innings with a 5:1 K:BB ratio and 9:1 GO:AO ratio. The Bears' bats came alive at just the right moments int his one, too, as Yakima notched six runs on eight hits and one walk, with just one extra-base hit: a double from Jimmy Comerota. The game was actually much closer than the score would indicate, as the Bears took a two-run lead in the top of the third that would go unchanged through the eighth inning, when Yakima added four insurance runs.
Advanced-Rookie: Missoula 0, Ogden 12. (38-25) Yikes. Starter Conrad Flynn gave up seven runs in his 5.1-inning start, mostly due to the three home runs he surrendered to the Raptors' bats, and reliever D.J. Johnson saw things get out of hand in the bottom of the eighth, retiring just one batter and allowing five more runs to score. Then, of course, is the issue that the Osprey bats took the night off, with Roidany Aguila's double going down as the only extra-base knock on the night. Missoula did draw six walks to go with four hits, but two baserunners were thrown out on the bases while eight more were stranded.
Low-Rookie: The AZL D-backs had the day off.
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Curious
Did you get out to the Silver Hawks game last night? Curious if you saw JR Bradley pitch?
Nope
I’m gonna see him next week. Might go tonight/over the weekend, as well.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 26, 2011 1:01 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Trevor Bauer
it’s incredible, but I was listening to the game….thinking that Bauer wasn’t very impressive today…..and all of a sudden realized he’d struck out 7 and only walked 1 in five innings….
i can’t believe my expectations of him as a minor leaguer have just soared that high….
It was kind of weird
Bauer threw a lot of pitches. Seemed to struggle with command. Without seeing it, though, I have no idea how “wild” they meant by wild. I know his pitches are said to have a lot of movement. I don’t know if he was really losing control all that much. It was startling to realize he’d only walked one batter. But, he threw a couple of wild pitches and hit one batter. And the Mobile catcher was clearly having some problem handling pitches in the dirt, as Bauer had to get one extra out after a K turned into a ball to the backstop.
But, I am still fascinated by him. I’d love to see him pitch. Bauer seems convinced that his workout routine means he can throw and throw and throw. ….. I guess we’ll see. But, I find him the most exciting prospect in the system easily.
Just so that everybody knows
John Sickels graded our pitchers:
Bauer : A
Bradley: A-
Skaggs: A-
Parker: B/B+
I survived the 2004 & 2010 seasons.
Bauer is AWESOME
Skaggs is AWESOME
Parker is AWESOME
Wow
Straight B pretty low on Parker. Bradley probably is a better prospect than JP, but I like the year Jarrod has had.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 26, 2011 1:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
?
it’s not a straight B though…it’s a B/B+
that still puts him in top 50 prospect range…which is where most people have him
my personal pet peeve is ranking people who are far away from the majors that high….so i still have Parker ahead of Bradley…but i know a lot of ppl disagree with me about that
by blue bulldog on Aug 26, 2011 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I assume that means he's on the fence between the two
And no it doesn’t. It puts him in back-top-100 range. A few straight B’s eek into the back ends of the separated hitter/pitcher top-50s.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 26, 2011 3:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
nope
are you looking at the right list?
if you see his 2010 list, the B+ extends from Top 11 to 33, and then the rest are B’s. i feel fairly confident that Sickels will view Parker as on the B+ side of that B/B+, but regardless, i think it’s fair to say that a B/B+ ranking puts Parker at around the 30th best pitching prospect. once you factor in that pitching prospects in the minors overall is a lot better than hitting prospects right now, and the fact that with a lot of the graduations….and then falling prospects (guys like Matzek and Archer)….it seems pretty likely to me that Parker is going to be a Top 50 prospect on Sickels’s mental list (he doesn’t actually make a top 100) and Top 60 at worse.
by blue bulldog on Aug 26, 2011 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Just checked my 2011 book
25 B+ position players, 33 B+ pitchers. If he’s a B, that’s not top-50, particularly given the strong entering draft class.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 26, 2011 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions
you're thinking about this wrong...
first of all, he’s not a B
he’s a B/B+. that means he’s the 33rd pitcher. and fine, i’m okay with just saying he’s top 60 then. that’s still a lot better than “back-top-100 range, or eek into the back ends…”
also, when Sickels says B/B+ and i’m saying that’s going to be top-50, i had already thought about the entering draft class. there will be plenty of graduations and plenty of fallers, and plenty of risers too. BA had Parker in the low 40’s right? nothing’s changed since the midseason report. and there should only be 7 draftees in front of Parker. Parker will be top 60 easily, and top 50 probably.
my bad, i actually went 2011 book when i said 2010 book…
by blue bulldog on Aug 26, 2011 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we're just thinking about it differently...
I take B/B+ as “he’s going to be either one of those” because Sickels never does combo grades like that in the end. He’ll be one or the other when it’s all said and done. I was also wrong about being near the back portion of the top-100, but he’s a 56-70 guy if he winds up being a B, because that’s where upper-end B prospects wind up. Not top-50.
BA probably will have him top-50. But they evaluate players differently.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 27, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah,
But he’s either going to be a high B or low B+. There’s little difference.
by CaptainCanuck on Aug 27, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Jameson Taillon is a top ten prospect and he's just as far away as Bradley.
I agree with you BB. Putting up good numbers and being major league ready should be more valued than a guy who is far off with a little more upside.
"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."
Upside matters a lot too
Bradley’s got #1 upside, and it’s not like he’s is a massive long term project. He’s very advanced for a prep arm, and he also played football. Something like 3.5-4 years away. I’d take that over an MLB ready prospect who projects to be #4, ceiling #3.
by CaptainCanuck on Aug 26, 2011 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Right
But most people project Jarrod Parker as a #2-3 starter with a #1 upside.
"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."
sure
that #3/4 thing wasn’t meant to be a direct comparison. Just a baseline.
I might take Parker over Bradley, but the point is that his superior upside could very well push him ahead. We tend to be conservative with recent draftees because they have no professional data yet, but if Bradley plays to the scouting reports, he might as well be the #2 guy in this system behind Bauer.
by CaptainCanuck on Aug 26, 2011 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Bauer's call up is imminent
my view is he will have a role to play in the stretch drive and the post season. What exactly that role is isn’t clear. I for one would not be surprised to see him put into the rotation because there is a trend toward giving him regular rest between starts.
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
I just cant tell
At one moment, I think he will be called up. The next, I am like, no way. Either way, if he does get called up, I bet it is limited to the bullpen.
I got nothin'.
Not a betting man
but Bauer is going up, and while he may make a long relief appearance or two, his arm is trained for starting and not relief.
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
by NASCARbernet on Aug 26, 2011 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
still think we're going to cap him
to at most 170 IP this year. if that’s the case….i just can’t see him being used in the rotation.
by blue bulldog on Aug 26, 2011 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
He's a pro now
I see him in the rotation. He may not go much longer than five innings a start, but that alone will help in the stretch run and post-season.
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
by NASCARbernet on Aug 26, 2011 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Arizona does too
In 2012.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 26, 2011 3:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
We'll see him pitch
this year.
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
by NASCARbernet on Aug 26, 2011 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Out of the bullpen.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 26, 2011 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Perhaps
perhaps not. Only KT and Gibby know how they’ll utilize him if he comes up. My view that he’s coming up is only a guess. But think of it this way, nobody goes into battle by letting the enemy know the kinds of weapons and how they are going to be deployed.
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
by NASCARbernet on Aug 26, 2011 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions
If it was up to me.
I’d put him up on the post season roster I’d use Collmenter/Bauer as the number three starters in a three game series. Maybe two innings of Bauer and then three of Collmenter.
This is probably a a pipe dream. But if you’re in a series with the Phillies, then do whatever it takes.
"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."
I meant 5 game series
3 wins
"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."
Interesting idea
yeah, against the Phillies, one has to do whatever it takes, even if it means having someone (gasp!) bunt.
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
by NASCARbernet on Aug 26, 2011 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Not sure if we can
Bauer has to be up by some point in order to be eligible for postseason rosters. We may have passed that point, but I’m not sure.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 26, 2011 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
in which case
he’d skip his next start in AA. I just don’t see him starting though, with the workload he’s already had and the supposed cap he’s been set by the org. But I really do think he’s coming up though. Maybe we only see him in Sept under desperate conditions, and a starter on a short leash in the playoffs. Though he will probably exceed his cap if that happens.
by CaptainCanuck on Aug 26, 2011 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions
who else is ready to see ryan langerhans in september?
cause i sure am.
"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd
:::cue Burroughs comment:::
"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder
It's really a wonder this team is doing anything well
Given that we’ve given significant playing time to enough AAAA players to form an AAAA all-star team.
Though, Bauer is
And we have no idea if he will be called up.
I say 1 more start and shut him down
Lincecum’s rookie year in 2007 he threw 146 innings and had an ERA over 4. He was 23, Bauer is only 20 and coming off an insane worload for someone his age. Give him his last start then a several months off. Come back to spring training 6 months older and stronger.
Yeah, and poor J-Up has played all year, so shut him down too for next year, too.
For heaven’s sake, will someone here grow a spine and realize that it’s all about winning deep, and not ‘next year.’ These guys are pro athletes, not delicate doilies.
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
by NASCARbernet on Aug 26, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll Try And Be Civil...
…but this post reeks of someone who has absolutely zero knowledge of pitchers, pitching, and how to develop and strengthen a young prospects arm.
It has nothing to do about “growing a spine” and everything to do with development, maturity, and long term health.
by dbacksbaseball on Aug 26, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, you're right, I'm an idiot
I have no knowledge of pitching, muscles, tendons, arteries, peripheral nervous systems, mathematics, semantics, grammar, or education.
I don’t know why he signed since he’s a delicate flower and should be placed on a museum pedestal.
I don’t know why we play these silly games, thank goodness we have computers where the games should really be played.
I thank the Good Lord that there are people like you who are too afraid to accomplish anything because otherwise everyone would do great things, and we can’t have that.
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
by NASCARbernet on Aug 26, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Overdramatic much?
I’d be okay with him the bullpen for a bit, get used to the big league parks, players and feeling what it’s like in a pennant race. But if he starts right away how do we know he’d be better in the majors than Wade Miley or Micah Owings? Clearly he’s more talented but he’s still a young pup who has thrown a lot of pitches to get through 4-5 innings of work in AA. Guys in the majors who make MILLIONS will make him pay.
I suppose you’ll be calling for Archie Bradley in the Opening Day rotation as well.
Bauer is virtually ready to go
This isn’t about Bradley. He’ll give up hits, he’ll give up runs. Who hasn’t?
You guys are really wimpy about this. What’s wrong? Maybe he’ll upset your previously place bets at Vegas?
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
by NASCARbernet on Aug 26, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Um...OK
First of all I didn’t call you an idiot. Don’t put words in my mouth.
However, what you do sound like is a combination of the little league parent willing to sacrifice his kids long term health and potential for that big game on Saturday when he pitched six innings on Thursday, and the drama queen seeking attention.
by dbacksbaseball on Aug 26, 2011 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
You're the queen
“Oh, I don’t want the little delicate boy to get hurt.”
Guess what? The guess here is HE WANTS TO PITCH. He wants to be out there and win. His arm is fine. If his arm is tired, it’ll lose movement. It’s that simple.
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
by NASCARbernet on Aug 26, 2011 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Because 20 year old kids always know what's best for them
They’re giving the kid a ton of leeway in his own development as is, letting him keep his long toss regiment in place and such. He’s got a lot of say, but the organization isn’t going to let him burn his arm out if they think he needs to rest. I’m thrilled the kid wants to keep competing. But this is an investment. People get paid lots of money to protect these investments, and I know they’re much more knowledgable about it than Bauer, you, or I are. Using him this year is year is NOT worth the risk of losing 6+ years of him later if they think that’s possible, and if they’re keeping him on an innings limit and want to shut him down, they CLEARLY believe it’s a high enough risk.
hey
i don’t know about you, but when i was 20 i already knew what was best for me, and the entire world at large
by blue bulldog on Aug 26, 2011 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
He was signed
Because of his future value?
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 26, 2011 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
The future?
Is now.
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
by NASCARbernet on Aug 26, 2011 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Not Bauer's
Dipoto said recently Bauer would preferably get another 30 IP, max 35. I think he has a good idea of their plans.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 26, 2011 9:06 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Bauer is the exception.
Any other pitcher in our system and I would say no way. I think he could throw 300 innings if you needed him to.
"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."
Yeah
I am really torn. For any other pitcher I would say no way. But, with him….. I don’t know. Maybe. I just don’t want to blow the guy’s arm out just trying to make the playoffs. He’s really young still. As I said before, I sincerely don’t want to see us do anything like what happened to Mark Prior.
Wouldn't Bauer himself be opposed to being shut down?
After reading all of Bauer’s beliefs in pitching and arm strength, I’m thinking the last thing he would want is to be shut down. He wants to throw and throw and throw and believes that’s how you build arm strength and pitch lots of innings. If he got shut down he would probably just head to that Texas camp so he could throw some more.
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Aug 26, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
It's not really his decision i don't think
The franchise has invested a lot in Trevor Bauer and it’s Dipoto/Kt’s decision how far they want to push him this year. Bauer is a competitor so of course he’ll want to keep throwing. Curt Schilling would pitch till his arm fell off if nobody stopped him
As for the second part i am worried about Bauer pushing himself too hard in the offseason at that ranch or whatever. His right arm will support his family and put food on the table. Dude needs to chill IMO.
Yeah, people shouldn't push themselves...
it leads to success. That’s bad, right?
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
by NASCARbernet on Aug 26, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
you're looking at this at only the two extremes
it’s not “push yourself” or “slack off”
it’s how much do you need to push yourself to accomplish the goals you want to accomplish
for instance, in school, i can “push” myself and study 24 hours a day and don’t eat, drink, or sleep and die in three days. or you know, i could pull back, and study however much i estimate i need to study, and have a long successful career down the line
by blue bulldog on Aug 26, 2011 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
School isn't success
its just a stepping stone for some. Obtaining a professional license is just a stepping stone, it may portend success, but it alone is no guarantee.
Bauer has conquered school, is conquering the minors, and is ready for the next step.
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
by NASCARbernet on Aug 26, 2011 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
In Addition...
…this year is “chump change” in the overall potential value of Bauer and is long term contributions to the franchise.
Great!
But, he’s to paid to pitch. He wants to pitch. Everything suggests that he should pitch.
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
by NASCARbernet on Aug 26, 2011 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Look...
…Nolan Ryan has it right. The only way to build strength and endurance in a pitchers arm is to throw, throw, and throw some more, and throw pitch counts out the window. But even he admits that there is a point when you have to take a break for rest and recovery. He sees that in his own rotation right now, and they will be fortunate to hang on to the division lead, probably only by outhitting the opposition, because that starting rotation is running out of gas. Quick.
When he shows signs of tiring, rest him
he shows no such signs. Oh, wait, I don’t know anything about pitching. Never mind.
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
by NASCARbernet on Aug 26, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
he has shown signs of tiring
if you followed his last three games, you would see that. more hits given up. higher balls to strikes ratios. harder hits (HR two games ago, a double and triple this past game). mysteriously losing command in the 4th and 5th innings of starts.
i’ve been one of the heaviest supporters of Bauer on this site….even before we drafted him. but you can’t say there wouldn’t be an increased risk in continuing to have him pitch.
by blue bulldog on Aug 26, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
OR
there’s better hitting in AA than in A. Ball movement is the best objective measure of an arm’s condition.
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
by NASCARbernet on Aug 26, 2011 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
first of all
i’m talking about increasingly hard hit balls over three games (all at AA) and increase number of hits means….both of which mean that there’s less ball movement
also, even if ball movement is a good measure of an arm’s condition, it’s not the only, and may not even be the best. if you watch pitchers late in games, when they get tired, the most noticeable thing to go is their command and control. they start throwing more balls. they start missing their catcher’s mitt. and i’m telling you right now, if you follow Bauer’s last three games….that has occurred increasingly frequent
by blue bulldog on Aug 26, 2011 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Tell me all you want
movement is the objective measure of an arm’s condition. Late inning tiring more much more general – not just an arm, but legs, upper thigh, back, et cetera all tire at the end of a game.
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
by NASCARbernet on Aug 26, 2011 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
His command
has also gotten really sloppy towards the end of his starts in his last couple of outings.
by CaptainCanuck on Aug 26, 2011 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it's unfair to say he's shown signs of tiring.
We couldn’t watch the game. Wildness and occasional gopher balls seems pretty common for him.
"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."
Exactly, and the hitters are better in AA
He’s a power pitcher, and there’s going to be periods of wildness. There’s also going to be periods of sublime performance.
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
by NASCARbernet on Aug 26, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
this is the problem
people can come up with any rationalization for why he is or isn’t tired
i’m guessing you won’t be convinced that he’s tiring regardless of what anyone says, until you see him pitch yourself.
in that case…for veil of ignorance purposes, can you hands down state what evidence you would be able to see, if Bauer pitched on TV, that would let you personally know he was tired or not? something both necessary and sufficient, that way you wouldn’t be able to rationalize it away once it occurred.
by blue bulldog on Aug 26, 2011 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Decreased velocity and missing high with all of his pitches.
I’ve heard he uses his fastball up in the zone a ton, so even that might not be the best indicator.
"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."
I would be more concerned with decreased velocity than missing high
Missing high usually means ordinary tiring. Loss of velocity over several games may be more diagnostic (sic) of a tiring arm, but also, ordinary physical aches and pains can figure into it.
He’s going to have some tiring because he hadn’t pitched in competition for a few weeks, then he’s competing again. If he’s tired, we’ll know soon enough.
But missing high or just a game or two of a top fastball losing a mile or two isn’t sufficient to suggest dead arm. All pitchers experience periods within a season where velocity dips slightly and then just as suddenly, it’s back.
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
by NASCARbernet on Aug 26, 2011 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
there's a direct link between the two
If he’s missing high, it could very well mean that he’s overthrowing to compensate for his regular effort to hit 95 has suddenly dropped down to 92.
by CaptainCanuck on Aug 26, 2011 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions
If he has better movement and control at 92
then throw 92.
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
by NASCARbernet on Aug 26, 2011 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions
that's not what I mean
Say you regularly use 85% of your effort with each pitch, and you’re usually around 95 MPH with that. Then, all of a sudden, likely because you’re gassed out, you just can’t hit 95 anymore with 85% effort and instead sit at 92 only. In order to get your 3 miles back, you have to use more effort, and when you do that, you tend to sail your fastball.
When guys drop in velocity, it isn’t usually because they go for more command and/or movement, it’s because they’re gassed out.
by CaptainCanuck on Aug 26, 2011 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Bauer is different
A little late to this thread – but I got a chuckle out of the banter and had to comment. Like most of the rest of the BB world, no one seems to know what to do with Bauer. You guys are in for a real treat when you do finally get to watch him pitch. Kid throws harder in the 9th at 130 pitches than the 1st. Dominates more as the game goes on. Worst innings are always somewhere 1 thru 5 and usually 1 thru 3. Sails through the lineup from there. Fret not about pitching him. He and his college coach butted heads for 2 years before he let him go. No doubt in anyones mind that followed him at UCLA. BAUER WANTS TO PITCH. But it isn’t his decision and he is a respectful kid. Doesn’t throw teammates or coaches under the bus. But throw out conventional wisdom when it comes to Bauer – he is just very very different.
I think the Diamondback Brain Trust
is going to play coy regarding Bauer’s call-up and post season eligibility. If they told the world that ‘yes, we’re calling him up,’ then opposing teams may be more committed to scouting him for the post-season. If the D’Back’s say, “We’re not sure yet,” then the opposing teams are less likely to scout the heck out of the kid and focus on other players.
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
by NASCARbernet on Aug 27, 2011 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
that wasn't about Bauer specifically
but more about how there’s a direct link between loss in velocity and leaving your fastball up.
On a somewhat related note, I’ve always wondered this about Bauer. His main problem with fastball command seems to be that he’s missing up… Isn’t that a likely cause of overthrowing? He’s regularly 91-96, but there’s nothing wrong with being 91-94, especially if it improves his ability to locate his fastball.
by CaptainCanuck on Aug 27, 2011 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Up
That is what is so different about Bauer. He pitches up on purpose. Everyone thinks he is wild up – NOPE – he wants to locate his FB at the very top of the zone. So he doesn’t have a lot of room to miss. Umps are pissy about high strikes anyway so he gets very little help. It is so amazing that everyone goes on about Bauer and command. If you look at numbers for walks, hits and K’s you would never say he is a guy with command problems. Yet command, command, command. A reporter asked Bauer after one of his starts at Cal. Something like – you missed up a lot today but when you got the ball down you were really tough to hit. Bauers response – I was missing when I was down. Tunnels, tunnels, tunnels. Bauer is all about tunnels. Everyone seems to read the stuff about the ball at 20’ from the mound looking the same – but I guess they don’t believe it. Bauer does. FB’s get to the plate faster. Less time for gravity to act. Gravity pulls change down more cuz it is in the air longer. Slider inbetween speed wise but has additional spin effects moving it down. Split etc. etc. etc. They all move down. So FB up is the only place to get the other pitches in the strike zone and in the same place at 20’. OH!!!!! – but that won’t work against pro hitters. I guess the jury is still out on that one. But so far Bauer is kind of making that look questionable also.
1) I don't have to educate you, bb.
2) If you weren’t in on the neurophysiology of pitching memos, I can’t help you.
3) Yes, generally when a pitcher is having difficulties, such as a tired arm, experienced viewers can spot it.
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
by NASCARbernet on Aug 26, 2011 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Just curious:
Why has JP’s stock dropped so much this season? Obviously, the rehab from Tommy John has sapped some of his control, but I was under the impression that he was in the process of getting it back, and that the process was typically slow for pitchers after they get back from TJ.
Is there something else to be concerned about? Do scouts no longer see him as a top of the rotation guy?
2007: Anybody, Anytime
2011: Justin Upton, All the Time
by Zavada's Moustache on Aug 26, 2011 5:01 PM EDT reply actions
I think once one has had that surgery, there is a perception of 'damaged goods.'
It’s up to JP to prove the pundits wrong and just go out and produce solid results. He’s a known quality, and scouts and reports are always on the lookout for The Next Great Thing.
It might actually be to his advantage in Spring Training that he come in as an underdog, too.
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
by NASCARbernet on Aug 26, 2011 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
okay
so there are a number of ways of viewing JP
1) there people like me, look at JP’s numbers before he was even injured, compare them to guys like Skaggs and Bauer, and realize they aren’t that close
2) then there are some people, who still think his stuff is pretty amazing, but are just worried the control isn’t there anymore, and it might take longer than expected to come back, which probably leads to a slight downgrade
3) then there are those who just don’t really have any idea what to do with JP. his statistical profile is actually pretty much identical to what he did in 2009 before being injured. http://statcorner.com/pitcher.php?id=519105 sure, the control/command has been wobbly at times, but that’s obviously to be expected from a TJ. Baseball America had him at 33 at the beginning of the year. Once you include incoming draftees, and guys who have had dominating seasons (people like Skaggs, Paxton, Pomeranz, Carlos Martinez and the like) offset by people who have graduated and dropped off the map, you end up with a guy who’s still basically around a Top 50 prospect.
It should be noted…..Sickels had Parker at a B going into the season, and right now he says Parker is B/B+. That means Parker has gone up in his mind, since preseason.
by blue bulldog on Aug 26, 2011 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions
that was a conservative B though
his stock dropped because he needed surgery, and that increase in grade is because he hasn’t fallen off like some would probably fear could happen with TJS. It’s no longer a death sentence to most, but we have to remember that a torn UCL is still a major injury for pitchers and a lot can still go wrong. His stock right now is probably somewhere between his pre season grade and where he was before.
by CaptainCanuck on Aug 26, 2011 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions
loss in command
he’s getting it back, but it’s still not fully there yet. Just because it’s normal for a TJS victim to not have his command fully there to start of with it doesn’t mean everyone comes back from it the same and at full force once you’re over the recovery phase. You still should be a little concerned that he’s been slow in recovering.
by CaptainCanuck on Aug 26, 2011 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions
and of course
his stock has not really dropped all that much. People are just being cautious.
by CaptainCanuck on Aug 26, 2011 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions
exactly
for one thing, when you were the #33 prospect preseason, and you’re still the #50-60 prospect at the end of the season (he’s not falling further than that at BA for sure, and most likely won’t fall farther than that with Sickels), that’s not really a drop. the guys clustered in that range are all pretty close
also, at least with Sickels, he had an expected value of Parker at the beginning of the season, and his expected value of Parker has increased over the course of the season. is it as high as it was two years ago? no….but…..you won’t see that until Parker puts out numbers better than two years ago (because when people were ranking him in the past, they were also projecting him to get better, and anyone coming back from an injury like TJ will have a bigger onus on themselves to show that they are fully recovered)
by blue bulldog on Aug 26, 2011 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions
that's also a good point
once you get beyond the elite guys, you could really go anywhere. Wondering, “why isn’t this guy 5-10 spots higher?” is probably just nitpicking.
by CaptainCanuck on Aug 26, 2011 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions
So i think i may have missed the press release
but where is bradley going to be assigned and when can we expect to see him playing? is he a candidate for the fall league?
Fall Instructs
No pro work until then.
Fall League would obliterate him.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 26, 2011 5:58 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No matter what us fans think
it’s all going to be on KT and Dipoto, maybe even Gibson. seeing as how he seems to have just as much say as to who comes up.
IMO Bauer will be up, he’ll be in the bullpen probably like Price did with the Rays, a Dominant reliever for the postseason and come next year he’ll be starting.. so my prediction is he will be up in September.
Although someone on twitter asked Nick Piecoro “What are the chances he gets called up by August 31st so he is eligible for the playoff roster?” Piecoro then replied “I doubt it happens” so i don’t know, we’ll have to wait and see.
David Price is a good example.
A lot of people for some reason don’t want to see Bauer in a relief role, and I’m not sure why. It didn’t hurt Price or Hellickson one bit.
If they have a cap on his innings then I’m not sure there are other options than the bullpen.
"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."
And a great big replyFAIL
below I point out that I don’t like arbitrary numbers, whether it’s pitch count or total innings. Some pitchers because of poor mechanics shouldn’t pitch so much. Others, with superior mechanics, motivation, and ability should pitch more. I suspect young Mr. Bauer falls into the latter category.
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
by NASCARbernet on Aug 26, 2011 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
conceivable
For some reason I tend to forget that coming up in September does not necessarily mean he’ll be on the playoff roster. Maybe we’ll use him as a reliever to help us vault into October baseball, then leave him off the roster when that happens… Lol, for some reason, I find that concept slightly amusing. That was the same with Hellickson last year, right?
by CaptainCanuck on Aug 26, 2011 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Reno v. Mobile
How much better is Mobile than Reno? They would have to be favored in a series, right? I wonder how often that happens in the minors. It seems that it’s a growing trend, that guys are jumping over AAA to the majors while AAA remains a repository for aging prospects/reclamation projects who don’t quite have the shine.
"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder
Mobile would DESTROY Reno.
Not even close, IMO.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 26, 2011 5:59 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It's frankly
a pretty sorry crew at Reno these days.
"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder
Are the guys in Mobile going against lesser talented teams in the SL?
Probably helps our player’s numbers… The AAA affiliates of the AA teams in SL are probably better than the AA guys, opposite our siituation.
nope
take the team that Bauer and Skaggs just creamed (Mariners affiliate)
their top position prospects at AA are Nick Franklin, Chiang, Martinez, Catricala, Chavez. their top position prospects at AAA are Saunders, Liddi, and Triunfel.
you will just have to trust me, when i say that the industry consensus would say that the guys at AA are more well-regarded than the guys at AAA.
now, this probably wouldn’t be true at the beginning of the year, because Ackley was playing in AAA for the Mariners at the time.
i’d venture to say that usually, a lot of good prospects are on the AAA roster at the beginning of the year, but that by midseason, a lot of the better prospects are at AA.
by blue bulldog on Aug 26, 2011 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions
prime example with the Mariners
Franklin and Liddi are both SS, but Franklin is definitely way ahead of Liddi in terms of prospect value
by blue bulldog on Aug 26, 2011 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions
yep
AAA is a closet league to keep depth in case of an injury at the MLB level. As far as prospects go, they go there when they’re too good for AA but teams are still not sure if they can handle the big leagues, or they just want to be conservative, or if there’s no room in the big leagues. Examples would be Matt Moore and Jesus Montero. AAA isn’t really important for development.
by CaptainCanuck on Aug 26, 2011 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I would definitely take Mobile
I think that pitching rotation could handle the Reno hitters, easily.
If there's a cap
its an arbitrary number. If it’s set in stone, I for one will be disappointed. Don’t play him if he’s tired. Don’t play him if he doesn’t want to pitch. But don’t set him down because of some arbitrary magic number someone set for the sake of setting a number.
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
i don't understand why you think people set magic numbers for the sake of setting a number
you set numbers in order to maximize your probability of success
by blue bulldog on Aug 26, 2011 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions
What are the odds
that a Category five hurricane will strike San Francisco?
Pick a number. Any number.
"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.
by NASCARbernet on Aug 26, 2011 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Tomorrow
infinitesimally small so as to be zero
by blue bulldog on Aug 26, 2011 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions
The BayBears Rotation.
Makes me want to take my vacation, head to Mobile, Alabama, and spend a week watching what has come to be a 5 headed death trap for opposing line ups.
by J.RyanWalters on Aug 26, 2011 8:40 PM EDT via iPhone app reply actions
Me too!
I know I have said something similar over the last couple of weeks. That is an outstanding rotation. I would love to get an in-person look at that entire starting rotiation. Think of that. You could pay around $25 for the entire week’s worth of games and see all these young pitchers in person. Sounds great.
It doesn't get much better then that.
25 dollars will get you a front row perspective on what will probably be 3/5 of our starting rotation for the next 6 years. And they are all studs, the Southern League playoffs are going to be a blast. Even in a 5 game series most AA clubs should wet themselves having to face Skaggs, Bauer, Parker in games 1-3. You could be swept before you know it, and if not you still have Corbin and Brewer haha. God bless em.
by J.RyanWalters on Aug 26, 2011 9:06 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
The Bird
I got flipped off by a D-Backs player and got it on video : http://youtu.be/k8Q3OAofdVE It was awesome.

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