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Jason Marquis Fractures Fibula

Arizona starting pitcher Jason Marquis suffered a fractured right fibula in this afternoon's game against the Mets. It looks like the injury was suffered initially when he took a line drive off the leg from the bat of Angel Pagan in the third inning, though Marquis stayed in the game at that point. He finished the frame, but left after facing three batters in the fourth: Marquis hit the last batter faced, going down immediately himself. Our pitcher did make it off the mound under his own steam, with some assistance, but further examination revealed the fracture.

One can only imagine, with only six and half weeks left in the regular season, that he won't be back. Who'll replace him the Diamondbacks rotation?

Star-divide

There are a couple of options in the bullpen, of course. Zach Duke has made nine starts for the Diamondbacks this season, and Micah Owings has four. Owings' numbers are significantly better: he has gone 3-0 with a 3.54 ERA, while Duke is 2-4, resulting from a 5.47 ERA. However, Owings has been incredibly good working in long relief out of the bullpen, posting an ERA barely above two, over 26.2 innings of work, so it might make more sense to keep him in that role, and if who ever starts gets in trouble, Micah can then be used for an extended outing. Duke has been good too (3.21 ERA), but in a smaller sample.

The other possibility is bringing someone up from the minors to make the start. There's certainly no shortage of pitching talent down in the minors. Wade Miley is probably the best that Triple-A has to over, having put up a 3.64 ERA for the Aces. That may not seem great, but this is Reno, where arms go to die - the team, as a whole, has a 5.92 ERA this year, so Miley is more than two runs better than that. Take him out of the thin air, and the number are even more impressive. In five road starts. Miley has worked a total of 35 innings, and has a 2.31 ERA, with a K: BB ratio of 40:11.

If you dip down to Mobile, Tyler Skaggs has the best numbers of our starters there. Since his promotion from A-ball, he has six starts and fanned 40 batters in 31.2 innings of work, with a 2.84 ERA. It might also be Jarrod Parker time: while his overall ERA of 4.10 is less impressive, most of the runs he allowed were piled up in the early part of the year, as he came back from Tommy John surgery. Since the start of July, in Parker's eight starts, he has worked 43.2 innings and has a 2.89 ERA, with 37 punch-outs.

However, as Jack Magruder pointed out, Arizona GM Kevin Towers "has said repeatedly he will not rush young arms, and when one is called up, he will be called up to stay in rotation." The latter part of that statement wouldn't necessarily be a problem, as it seems very unlikely Marquis will be able to provide anything significant for the rest of the 2011 campaign. But are the names mentioned ready for the majors, especially in the white-heat of a likely pennant race down the stretch? That's something I'm sure Towers, Kirk Gibson and pitching coach Charles Nagy will already be discussing with those in the farm system...

Another possibility is going into the market and picking up a replacement there. I just saw a list of those who have cleared waivers - interestingly, they include this afternoon's pitcher for the New York Mets, Chris Capuano. The others listed don't exactly seem like an exciting bunch, for the most part: Bruce Chen; Rodrigo Lopez; Jason Vargas; Chien-Ming Wang; Ted Lilly [I have the .gif ready though...]; Tom Gorzelanny; and, of course, Carlos Zambrano.

Poll
Who should replace Jason Marquis in the rotation?
Zach Duke
16 votes
Wade Miley
132 votes
Micah Owings
130 votes
Someone else
66 votes

344 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 240 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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I'm betting they bring Enright back up

"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth

by Rockkstarr12 on Aug 14, 2011 5:56 PM EDT reply actions  

20 ER w/ 14:10 K:BB ratio and 6 HR's allowed in just 24 IP since being re-demoted.

ERA at Reno now up to 5.10 on the year. Zero percent chance.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 14, 2011 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

No wonder he's been quiet on Twitter lately!

"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth

by Rockkstarr12 on Aug 14, 2011 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah.

:(

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

wow

tough times…

"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."

by txzona on Aug 14, 2011 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd like

to see Miley.

Goldy Watch: 9 games, ..226/.294/.419

by Jdub220 on Aug 14, 2011 6:07 PM EDT reply actions  

bummer

I really like what Owings has got going on out of the pen, but if he wants to start I’d give it up to him.

by Counsellmember on Aug 14, 2011 6:09 PM EDT reply actions  

Of course

he WANTS to start…

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd put Duke in

But I think it’ll be Micah.

by CaptainCanuck on Aug 14, 2011 6:11 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Ouch

Guessing it will be Duke since they like Micah in the pen.

Arizona Cardinals/Phoenix Suns/ Arizona Diamondbacks/Phoenix Coyotes/ Arizona Rattlers/Chicago Bears fan

[I have always lived in Arizona, dad is from Chicago].

by JoeCB1991 on Aug 14, 2011 6:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Man

Marquis and Thole both going down was one of the weirdest things I’ve ever seen.

by CaptainCanuck on Aug 14, 2011 6:48 PM EDT reply actions  

Very bizarre

"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth

by Rockkstarr12 on Aug 14, 2011 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not funny

like most animated .gifs, but here it is again:

It was very confusing in real life, too.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Totally confusing...and sad to see

"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth

by Rockkstarr12 on Aug 15, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Power of Bauer

I vote for Trevor Bauer

"I could have been king, but in my own way I am king. Hail to the king baby." Ash from Army of Darkness

by Turambar on Aug 14, 2011 6:58 PM EDT reply actions  

I thought about that

I think he could hold his own in the big leagues, but we have no way of knowing that. He really has to impress in his short stint in AA for him to get a shot in the rotation.

I’m not worried about him getting hurt, because I just get this feeling that Bauer is an iron man and will never get hurt – but then again, I could be hilariously wrong, and I just don’t think it’s worth the risk.

by CaptainCanuck on Aug 14, 2011 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

The general consensus on the board

was that because if he comes up before September, the D’Backs lose control of him for an entire year, so he’s probably not going to come up before September. After the first, you could be pretty sure they aren’t going to mess around – if he’s still throwing well, he’s coming up.

"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.

by NASCARbernet on Aug 14, 2011 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bauer pitched 5 innings today in AA

5H, 0R, 0ER, 8K, BB

I’d like to keep him in AA until at least September. Kind of nuts to think we’re actually contemplating bringing him up this season.

Prefer to give Miley a shot if we are bringing someone up.

by SongBird on Aug 14, 2011 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with you.

But wow, that’s a REALLY nice stat line from Bauer.

"Not a whit. We defy augury"
-Hamlet (Act V, Sc. II)

by Zavada's Moustache on Aug 14, 2011 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

The game was fun to listen to

Thanks to the Mobile radio guys who were talking a lot about Bauer’s pre game routine, as well as his delivery/mechanics.

Glad to know these AA games have free audio. Glad I checked milb.com today. May tune in for Skaggs next start, too.

by SongBird on Aug 14, 2011 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, the game is still on

So, I should say it IS fun to listen to.

by SongBird on Aug 14, 2011 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think

every game is free, though…

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nah, if Bauer is ready in September

bring him up. That’s what he’s getting paid the big bux for, might as well get some return on that investment.

"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.

by NASCARbernet on Aug 14, 2011 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

This

"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth

by Rockkstarr12 on Aug 15, 2011 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

You're agreeing with him :-P

He says keep him in the minors until September, as are you. :-)

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 15, 2011 3:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Shouldn't he at least stay in the minors until September 1st though?

I thought I saw something somewhere saying that in order to keep another year of his contract or something, he’d have to stay in the minors at least until September 1st?

"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth

by Rockkstarr12 on Aug 15, 2011 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

Bah

Yes.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 15, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bauer

has a Major League contract, though… does that change Minor League options at all?

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is already option year #1, I believe

As soon as you’re on the 40-man and get assigned to the minors, that requires an option. But I don’t think we’re super concerned about that… He won’t need many option years.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 15, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

That makes sense.

So, no worry on options, since he’s pretty much already a major league talent. Just worried about service time.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

why?

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder

by njjohn on Aug 14, 2011 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

We've

talked about Owings and Duke…

It’d also give you the advantage of flipping righty-lefty on the opposing manager mid-game.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sean Burroughs gets my vote

#InGibbyWeTrust…

Daron "...the D. Baxter fan-club"
Mark: "A non-profit organization."

by Jim McLennan on Aug 14, 2011 7:37 PM EDT reply actions   3 recs

Oh dear, not Ted Lilly

It wouldn’t be nice of us to mock our own pitcher. But, there is no way I could stop laughing at that .gif

by SongBird on Aug 14, 2011 7:39 PM EDT reply actions  

Me too

And he’s just a hothead in general. I’d rather not see him embarrass our team by acting like a total ass on the mound

"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth

by Rockkstarr12 on Aug 14, 2011 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bring up Miley

See what he’s got. Or Parker. Either one. Would hate to see them bring up Bauer – too early, too big a workload

by Craig from Az on Aug 14, 2011 7:48 PM EDT reply actions  

I actually

wouldn’t mind Capuano. His line this season is pretty similar to Marquis’s and he was handling our potent lineup pretty well. Maybe the platooning of Duke and Owings would work, but I like Micah too much out of the pen for that.

Coming at you with all the fire and pizzazz of a Kirk Gibson post-game interview.

by Plumawesome on Aug 14, 2011 7:51 PM EDT reply actions  

I wouldn't mind Cappy returning here.

I think he still has his home in Scottsdale too

"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth

by Rockkstarr12 on Aug 14, 2011 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Heck,

Overbay’s back. Let’s get Capuano too, and figure out whether Junior Spivey is still playing in the GBL…

Unfortunately, Jorge de la Rosa is injured too, and I dunno about the other guys.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

CRAIG COUNSELL FTW!!!!

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder

by njjohn on Aug 15, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wang and Putz on the same team

hmmm. We’d be punchline central on every sports news outlet.

by CaptainCanuck on Aug 14, 2011 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

LMAO!

I can just imagine the jokes coming from those two names

"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth

by Rockkstarr12 on Aug 14, 2011 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

If only

we had Doug Fister and hired Rollie Fingers as our pitching coach.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wang is freaking horrendous.

No reason to give up money for him when we already have Miley.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 14, 2011 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, Wang is pretty bad

No one on this list is really inspiring, really.

by SongBird on Aug 14, 2011 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

We don't need a WANG in our clubhouse

;)

"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth

by Rockkstarr12 on Aug 14, 2011 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't agree Wang is horrendous

If he’s healthy, he’s a good pitcher. Of course big IF on the health…..

but in his 15 innings of work so far he’s averaging 91 MPH with his FB, and he is getting very good vertical movement with his FB, meaning he is getting sink. And he’s still getting ground balls. 32 GB, 13 FB, 10 Line Drives.

He’s only making a million dollars this year. Which means for the last 6 weeks of the season it wouldn’t even cost the D backs 250K

I would definitely take a flier on Wang. The only thing that I worry about is our infield defense is not that great. But I’d still give it a try.

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Aug 15, 2011 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

He's struck out two guys in 15 innings...

SSS, but… c’mon. A 2:3 combined K:BB ratio in three starts? The dude is a walking experiment of the constant term in the FIP formula…

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 15, 2011 3:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

Wang has ALWAYS had very low K rates

I’m sorry, but you don’t understand this as well as you think you do. If healthy, he has one of the best sinkers of the last 30 years of baseball. He’s not some experiment. He’s a guy that had sustained success in the AL East. He’s also injury prone. And staying healthy is skill. But he’s a better pitcher than you think.

You really need to realize that the metrics are there for help in identifying outliers and giving us some guidance……….but if you can’t learn to peel back the layers of the onion and see deeper you are always going to struggle to gain true understanding.

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Aug 15, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think this statement is too harsh

the stats this year are way too small sample size to make any judgment on Wang as a pitcher. i will say this though…when he’s been effective, he’s struck out hitters at a 12-13% rate.

and the 91 mph velo is 2 mph less than the last time he was truly effective and injury-free (2006-2007), and still 1 mph less than 2008. then there’s the addition that extreme groundballers probably aren’t a good fit for our defense. and the fact that he’s injury-prone. i just think there’s a lot of question marks here which would make me not take a flier on Chien-Ming Wang. it also looks to me from his pitch f/x charts that he’s trying to reinvent himself as a pitcher. or at least something is different about the primary pitch he throws.

by blue bulldog on Aug 15, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Note the differencee:

The stats I talked about were velocity, vertical sink, and ball in play type.

The first two are “scouty” stats. He’s throwing hard enough, and he is getting a lot of sink. The Ball in play number, while certainly open to the vagaries of small sample size, was shown to indicate he is still getting a lot of ground balls, which is exactly the result you are after with Wang.

 I could care less about any other stat he has put up right now, in just 15 innings. Dan was talking to me about his number of K’s and his K/BB ratio, which is not a number we should be concerned with in evaulating Wang.

Dan also mentioned his FIP and clearly thinks his career was a fluke

ERA 4.18
Fip 4.02
xFIP 4.22
tERA 4.23
Siera 4.34

Nuff said about that part.

Now…back to the Velo, your point that the drop from his peak in 2007 (92.7) to the current 91 (1.7 MPH) is not really a strong one. You think he can’t be a very effective sinkerballer at 91 MPH ?

If his harder than a rock sinker could make him a borderline Cy Young Candidate for 2 1/2 years, throwing a similar sinker just a couple MPH less can still easily make him an effective pitcher. This guy had fWAR of 4.7, 4.0, and then 2.0 in 15 starts in 2008.

To dismiss Wang out of hand as “horrendous” and make reference to his FIP to infer he was flukey lucky was very poor analysis.

 Yes, he was hurt for 2 1/2 years…..but he’s making a comeback, and salary wise, would cost just 200K. for the remainder of the season. It would depend on what we had to give up, but I don’t see why anyone would think that putting in a claim on him would be so risky. You put in the claim and if they let him go, you get him for free. If they pull him back, at least you can explore a trade and if the asking price is very cheap, you give it a shot.

We gave 3 starts in a pennant race to Jason Marquis. We’ve given starts to Galaragga and Duke. We are not above giving starts to Chien Min Wang.

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Aug 15, 2011 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe

When we look at Wang we see Webb and it makes us a a little less than impartial?

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder

by njjohn on Aug 15, 2011 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

I try

to look away everytime I would see Wang.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 17, 2011 3:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't see what it is that you're referring to

But with a guy who hasn’t taken a major-league mound since 2009, I’d want to see some convincing evidence that he’s fully healthy and in top form. I’ve seen none of that – as bb noted, his velo, while effective for a sinkerballer, is down, and his limited sample of results are hardly confidence-inspiring.

If it’s an off-season free agent signing for a year and a million or two dollars, then I jump all over that because he has been a great pitcher in the past. But with Owings in the ‘pen and Miley in the minors, I think we have safer choices. I don’t think August 15th in first place in a close pennant race is the time to be making fliers, which is what Wang is. That’s what makes it an awful idea to me.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 15, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

To be fair to shoe,

you didn’t say ANY of that in your original post, so this kinda seems like hindsight…

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

You don't see because you are looking at the wrong things in this case

Since none of us has sat behind home plate and watched him pitch, the closest thing we can do is scout him through the numbers. And the only numbers that matter at this point are the ones indicating velocity and movement. And those numbers indicate he can still be effective at inducing ground balls. And so far, thats exactly what he has done.

Here are some of the top ground ball pitchers this year that throw hard" sinkers
First number is avg FB velocity, second number is Pitch/fx Vertical Movement, (sink) on the FB

Roy Halladay 91.9—5.7
Charlie Morton 91.7—4.8
Derek Lowe 87.9—5.7
Jason Marquis 89.3—6.3
Tim Hudson 90.6—5.2
John Lannan 90.0—6.9
Chien Min Wang 91.0—6.0

See my other points in the post above………I can’t rebut everything all in one place…that would be too easy.

And sorry for the harsh tone of my earlier post. that was uncalled for.

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Aug 15, 2011 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

fascinating list

Wonder why this group isn’t as successful as one would think.

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder

by njjohn on Aug 15, 2011 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

I see a lot of success in that group

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Aug 15, 2011 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't know

I would have guessed it would have been a ’who’s who’ list. Instead it’s kind of all over the map.

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder

by njjohn on Aug 15, 2011 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Micah Owings

What has Duke or Miley done this year to be given the job over Micah?
Micah’s role in the bullpen is pointless more often than not. He comes in usually after Collmenter/Duke/Marquis has pretty much put the game out of reach. Often times his scoreless innings are meaningless.

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 8:02 PM EDT reply actions  

Micah

hasn’t had a whole lot of success in the past after he faces a lineup more than twice or so. Same problem as with Collmenter, and there’s plenty of scouting reports on Micah.

Miley’s had good success in the minors, is currently mowing down PCL hitters, and would give other teams a brand new look.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Welcome

to the Snakepit, incidentally.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well they are going to call up somebody

Miley time! Please don’t post any pictures of Miley Cyrus when starts.

"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."

by txzona on Aug 14, 2011 8:13 PM EDT reply actions  

when he starts

"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."

by txzona on Aug 14, 2011 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Post pictures of Miley Cyrus?

Got it!

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 14, 2011 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

well she does have big league curves

but I hate to think about how much she’s been scored upon lately….

I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....

by piratedan7 on Aug 14, 2011 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."

by txzona on Aug 14, 2011 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dude...

is she even legal?

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

She's 17

"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth

by Rockkstarr12 on Aug 15, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Actually, she turned 18 back in November...my bad

"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth

by Rockkstarr12 on Aug 15, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just so you know

I can ban you.

"Never ignore a coincidence. Unless you're busy, in which case always ignore a coincidence."

by kishi on Aug 14, 2011 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

I laugh at your hollow threats!!! Hahahaha!!!!!

(Please don’t ban me….)

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 14, 2011 10:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

But this injury is Marquis could be really bad

depending on how it’s treated, and how he responds, this kind of injury has ended careers. I hope for his complete recovery so he can resume his career.

"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.

by NASCARbernet on Aug 14, 2011 8:27 PM EDT reply actions  

Somewhere,

Joe Theismann is sending sympathy cards.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

I had nightmares about that injury

I watched it as it happened.

"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.

by NASCARbernet on Aug 15, 2011 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ouch.

LT has never seen video of it.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Owings has done everything in his power

To win the spot. I like him in long relief too, but they already have Duke to fill that role, so why not give Micah another shot? If he bombs, Miley will likely be called up on Sept. 1 anyway.

"Not a whit. We defy augury"
-Hamlet (Act V, Sc. II)

by Zavada's Moustache on Aug 14, 2011 8:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Shrug

Who knows? Gibby was quoted today as saying he likes the bullpen the way it is. I definitely wouldn’t mind giving Owings another shot. Especially as, like I said in the GDT, I have very fond memories of him pitching in Atlanta.

by SongBird on Aug 14, 2011 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't mind a stopgap

then we call up bauer on the 31st

by rfffr on Aug 14, 2011 8:49 PM EDT reply actions  

I think it will be Miley.

Gibson wants Owings in the bullpen. I don’t think that’s a had call, tbh. Can’t go deep into games, and our sixth inning options are nothing to call home about.

Apparently Nick P talked to a FO guy who mentioned Miley and Duke as possibilities, and Duke has done nothing but suck for the last two calendar years.

I’m pretty confident it’ll be someone from the minors. The waiver options just aren’t good. That means Miley, Bauer, and Parker. Should be interesting to find out, and perhaps even more interesting to see how the debut goes.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 14, 2011 9:04 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Zach Duke has not earned a shot

2 innings and 2ERs today, but he got the W

"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."

by txzona on Aug 14, 2011 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Clearly

he was the best pitcher on the mound yesterday. He alone gave his team a chance to win.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

this

if it’s between Miley and Duke, I just don’t see how you don’t ride the hot hand that Miley has exhibited recently and go with him

personally, i wouldn’t want to see Parker in the majors this year….not even in September. i just have nightmares about him walking in a run with the bases loaded….

by blue bulldog on Aug 14, 2011 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed on all points

Except that if the team wants him to get more innings, I wouldn’t mind JP seeing some bullpen time.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 14, 2011 9:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Yeah

I am all for waiting on Parker.

by SongBird on Aug 14, 2011 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

yes... Miley is the one I want.

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder

by njjohn on Aug 14, 2011 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

I dont think Bauer will start in the Bigs this year

I’ve read if he’s called up it will likely be in a relief role. What has Miley or Duke done to prove they deserve the Start over Owings?

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 9:11 PM EDT reply actions  

Miley just threw a 3 hit shutout while striking out 9 in the PCL.

Micah Owings throws 86 mhp and can’t go more than 5 innings.

"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."

by txzona on Aug 14, 2011 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Miley also retired 22 in a row in that game

Hard to ask for more proof from someone who hasn’t pitched in the majors yet

by SongBird on Aug 14, 2011 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Woah, not a shutout in the PCL!!!!

Call me when he does something in the Big leagues. Micah can go more than 5 Gibby hasnt let him. He had a shutout through 5 against the Rockies and was taken out.
BTW Miley’s AA and AAA stats are inferior to Micah’s big league stats this season.

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 9:18 PM EDT reply actions  

because Micah has been a reliever for most of the time

if Micah were a full time starter, he’d probably be a 4.5 ERA guy.

dude just doesn’t have the stuff to be a major league starter. look at what happened the last time he was used extensively as a starter.

by blue bulldog on Aug 14, 2011 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well

You are saying to call when he does something in the big leagues. How is that going to happen unless we call him up and see what he can do?

by SongBird on Aug 14, 2011 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m sorry I’m not impressed with a PCL shutout(Actually Miley didnt even throw a shutout today). Pretty much I’m saying he doesnt deserve the starting role over Owings. Hell when Owings was this guys age he’d already thrown a big league shutout.

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Miley is the superior pitcher.

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder

by njjohn on Aug 14, 2011 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

You seem to be a statistician

Let’s hear why he’s superior to Owings and please dont give me any fastball MPH comments.

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why bother?

If you get stats you’ll just say “Call me when he does something in the big leagues”.

by SongBird on Aug 14, 2011 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you show me legitimate stats that say this guy is better I’ll give you credit.
Coming out and acting like a Complete game in AAA is the most impressive feat ever isnt exactly evidence that he’s great. One game in AAA doesnt make up for his very average numbers in AA and AAA this year.

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

see above

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder

by njjohn on Aug 14, 2011 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

The stats are below

Hey, I’ve already said I’m willing to give Owings another shot as a starter. I have been nothing but complimentary to Owings all season.

I’m objecting to your illogical arguments asking for big league proof while saying the guy shouldn’t be brought to the big leagues.

by SongBird on Aug 14, 2011 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

It was tongue-in-cheek towards the guy going gaga over a 3-hit shutout in the PCL. Sad thing is it wasnt even a shuout.
There are plenty of guys in the minors I’d take over Owings and after looking at Miley’s numbers this season he doesnt make that list.

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ok, do you seriously not find what Miley did to be impressive?

Seriously? And also that it isn’t just that one guy in this thread who was impressed?

We’re just saying that Miley has had good success in the PCL, which is notorious for being hitter friendly.

by SongBird on Aug 14, 2011 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

i

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 14, 2011 10:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Stupid mobile commenting

I think you’re underestimating how difficult it is to pitch in the PCL. I could see Miley giving us an ERA in the 4.3-4.5 range, which is plenty good with this team’s offense.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 14, 2011 10:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I could see Owings putting just as good of an ERA. In fact in his 4 chances to start his ERA has been about a full point lower than that at 3.54.

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can't deny that,

But considering that he walked more guys than he struck out in his last start (the Colo game, IIRC), I don’t think he can keep it up.

But I’ve been wrong before. A lot.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 14, 2011 11:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

ya he could

but we would need to use duke after 5/6 innings. which we all know is a bad idea.
i like owings, but man we need an innings eater to help out that bullpen, especially since we take a VERY effective piece out of it.

"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd

by blank_38 on Aug 14, 2011 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Because in the PCL

most pitchers have ERAs similar to guys in slow pitch softball leagues.

"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."

by txzona on Aug 14, 2011 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well,

one complete game in AAA is about as small a sample as one 5 inning scoreless game in the Majors.

They’re both kinda irrelevant to the larger point.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Miley in Reno
3.5 k/bb
9.3 k/9
2.98 FIP

Owings career #s
1.6 k/bb
6.1 k/9
4.95 FIP

Owings is a fine pitcher, but Miley’s upside is higher.

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder

by njjohn on Aug 14, 2011 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Let's take a much deeper look at Owings vs Miley

Looking at one year from Miley and a whole Career from Owings shows a definite bias from the guy giving statistics. Let’s look at their whole careers as minor leaguers.
Miley: 2.2 K/BB, 7.0 K/9
Owings(in the Minors): 2.5 K/BB. 7.4 K/9
Owings in the MLB: 1.66 K/BB, 6.4 K/9
 Take a look at Owings stats in 08 no doubt his best in K/9 and K/BB, but somehow his worst in terms of ERA.

by tnelly15 on Aug 15, 2011 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Can one of you

stat gurus explain to me Owings 08 season?

by tnelly15 on Aug 15, 2011 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

2008?

He was bad. Not as bad as his ERA, but bad. 39.9% of baserunners scored, which is an unsustainably-high total, so he probably was perhaps a useful #5 starter, but not more than that.

A 1.66 K/BB in his career isn’t very good. Neither is his career 4.86 ERA. He is, unfortunately, a bit of a ticking time bomb if we keep throwing him out there as a starter and expecting five scoreless innings. 5 innings, 2-3 runs is a more logical expectation (a few more 3’s than 2’s, IMO), and I’d rather have Miley.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 15, 2011 3:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

Huh

Comparing minor league stats is fair when considering two minor league pitchers. Owings is not a minor league pitcher. You’re negating Owings big league stats (which haven’t been inspiring) with his minor league potential. It’s a false argument.

This is not going to be pretty. We're talking violence, strong language, adult content...

by luckycc on Aug 15, 2011 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

What? I posted his big league stats.

by tnelly15 on Aug 15, 2011 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Micah’s minor league numbers have absolutely no bearing on argument.

This is not going to be pretty. We're talking violence, strong language, adult content...

by luckycc on Aug 15, 2011 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

But Miley’s last 54.1 innings pitched are the only ones we should look at?

by tnelly15 on Aug 15, 2011 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

It’s not an easy comparison but Micah hasn’t been effective as a starter in a couple years now. Might as well give Miley a shot. Can’t go worse than all the other options we’ve tried in the five slot.

This is not going to be pretty. We're talking violence, strong language, adult content...

by luckycc on Aug 15, 2011 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agree that it's a tough comparison,

but Micah has been an effective starter this year, IMO.
Interestin how I get bashed for my comparison, but his which wasnt any better didnt.

by tnelly15 on Aug 15, 2011 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Burden of proof

tends to be slightly lower for established members, and lower for those espousing the pluralist (or even majority) opinion.

Sucks, but it’s kinda true everywhere across the internet…

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

To be clear

I think Owings is a decent 5 option. I just a) think Miley has a higher upside; b) love Owings in the long relief role and would hate to lose him there.

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder

by njjohn on Aug 15, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

You didn't answer my question

You are asking for big league proof. How do you suggest this happen unless Miley is given a shot in the big leagues?

by SongBird on Aug 14, 2011 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

That’s my point Owings has big league success/experience. This guy doesnt and to be honest I’m not that impressed with his Minor League numbers this year.

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

welcome to the 'pit, by the way.

you could have had a more gracious entrance, but no matter.

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder

by njjohn on Aug 14, 2011 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Those are some nice stats tailored to your argument there. You take Owings career stats and Miley’s Reno stats only and then you pick K:BB and K/9 which are likely Owings worst categories.
Thanks for the welcome though.

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well

Why don’t you tailor them how you’d like to and then make an argument. I believe k/9 and k/bb are the most important stats. They weren’t cherry picked, they were selected b/c I think they are most inactive of success.

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder

by njjohn on Aug 14, 2011 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’d say WHIP is atleast equally important to those two if not more so, but you chose to leave that off for some reason. Maybe because Micah’s big league WHIP this year is better than Miley’s AA-AAA Whip or maybe not.

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

WHIP is an okay proxy for ERA

But has little predictive value and is very skewed against groundball pitchers. Overall, not a good statistic.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 14, 2011 10:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Inactive= predictive

Darned mobile devices

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder

by njjohn on Aug 15, 2011 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

Actually

Using K/BB is pretty all-inclusive if you believe in DIPS theory. That’s another matter, though.

Micah’s 2011 season came out of nowhere, as he’d been awful in 2009 and 2010 with Cincinnati, which is why he was available to us on a minor-league contract. The well-reasoned fear that he’ll regress back to that form is what makes people afraid to plug him back in the rotation.

For what it’s worth (not much, to me), Miley’s ERA at Reno is now better than the ERA Micah put up at Reno at the beginning of the year before being called up.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 14, 2011 10:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Owings was terrible last year mostly due to inconsistent innings. He was a long reliever on a team with great starting pitching for the most part. He often went long stretches without action.

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

That may be a reason he didn't perform up to his abilities

But that alone is not the difference between an ERA over 5 over the last few years and an ERA under 3 in a small sample in 2011 – it’s a lot deeper than just inconsistent innings. The reality is that his peripherals, as indicated by his FIP, suggest that he’s not a great starting candidate. His real talent level is somewhere in the 4.5-4.8 ERA range as a starter, probably.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 14, 2011 10:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Miley may not be any better than that either for all we know. Anyways I’m sure Miley or Duke will get the job.

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

He may not

But he has the upside to be a lot better than that, too.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 14, 2011 11:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I suppose we’ll see if that’s the case sooner or later.

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well I dont get how you guys who think K:BB is the end all be all would even give Owings a chance. He sucks in that area I’ll admit that, but just look at the other results.

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

BUT

THIS DOESNT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE FACT THAT JOE SAUNDERS GETS LOTS OF DOUBLE PL—

Oooh, sorry. Forgot where I was for a second.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

I swear

I read a few interviews in which Owings talked about how he has been working on his pitching over the last year or so. The implication being that he was now doing something different.

Is anyone seeing anything in his delivery/mechanics that is different now than it has been over the last few years? He has been surprisingly better this season. He has really been a valuable bullpen contributor.

by SongBird on Aug 14, 2011 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

The problem is selection bias

of course you hear him saying that in an interview. Every pitcher who struggles one year and does better (ERA-wise) the next year will say that.

Still think peripherals are very important when evaluating pitchers who have inconsistent pasts, though admittedly the sample sizes on his peripherals aren’t quite at the point where I would say they have stabilized.

On the other hand, the scouting report isn’t exactly glowing on Owings. Dude is a soft-tossing righty (as in, can’t break 90 mph on his fastball on a good day). You can talk about movement all you want (which, I’m honestly not seeing, but I’ve heard from others on this site that his pitches move a lot), but soft-tossing righties have a pretty good track record of getting destroyed if required to start consistently.

by blue bulldog on Aug 14, 2011 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

You seriously dont see movement on his fastball? Every single pitch he throws has some good movement.

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wonder

whether that’s partially due to a lowered workload this yr.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well,

This is why I was asking. I remember reading some interview with Owings where he talked pretty specifically about who he had been working with and what he was trying to fix. Because I was not very interested in this topic, however, I didn’t pay much attention.

Hence me asking now if anyone is actually seeing anything different in his mechanics that would back this up, and perhaps support his improved results this year.

by SongBird on Aug 15, 2011 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sorry

I should have been more clear in my answer. He’s probably changed something, because his average fastball now sits 86.5 mph, whereas in his career, he averaged 89 mph. Or maybe he just doesn’t have any juice left in his tank. Whether or not something has changed, doesn’t really matter to me.

So what does matter? Slower fastball = more vertical movement. This is almost universally true, because there is less velocity to counter the force of gravity. Does this mean Owings is better? Maybe, maybe not. But I can’t name too many successful right-handed starting pitchers in the majors who throw an average 86.5 mph fastball.

What I can believe, is that slower fastball with more vertical movement means the league is not used to him right now, and are probably not getting good contact on his pitches because they aren’t comfortable enough hitting a fastball that’s so much slower than the normal fastballs they face. On the other hand, what this does suggest, is that Owings will get owned the more he often he needs to go through the lineup.

The numbers would seem to support it. You can check out Micah Owings’s page below, and see that his opponents hit drastically better the 2nd or 3rd time through the order. If it were up to me, I’d never pitch Owings more than two innings per outing.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=owingmi01&year=&t=p

by blue bulldog on Aug 15, 2011 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think the velo drop

Might simply be age. Whether that caused his fastball to start jumping around all over the place out of nowhere is something else altogether, but his peripherals in 2011 are magically better than his career figures. It’s mostly SSS, though, IMO. Heck, this is a guy who actually struck out over 9 per nine innings a year ago. That’s a bit ridiculous to fathom with his current stuff, and really shows the magical absurdity power of SSS’s.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 15, 2011 4:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

Also

Who doesn’t get weaker as he goes deeper into a game? That seems pretty commonplace to me, and the jump isn’t astounding.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 15, 2011 4:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

take a weighted average

of his 1st to 2nd time through the order (based on both SP and RP) and you get a jump from 580 OPS to 830 OPS

that’s a huge jump

i only looked at IPK but he has a significantly lower jump between the first and second order. and i’m pretty sure most starting pitchers have way lower orders

it’s not a huge sample size…..but still. it doesn’t bode well.

by blue bulldog on Aug 15, 2011 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

He's

throwing his changeup much less, perhaps because he’s mostly throwing in relief, so he doesn’t have to rely on secondaries as much.

I do wonder if he’s switched to a 2-seamer or something.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

The first part of this nails it

Every pitcher constantly works on his pitching. So if luck causes a guy’s results to dramatically vary from one year to the next, they’re naturally going to say “well, I’ve been working.” What doesn’t get said is “on the exact same things as every other pitcher in baseball.”

He does get a lot of movement. I don’t get how he’s getting guys out nonetheless, b/c even a moving 85 mph fastball is still 85 mph, but the movement is undeniable.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 15, 2011 4:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

He's been a real pleasant surprise

in this season of pleasant surprised.

I have no problem with Owings starting in a fill-in role until The Beast arrives.

That sounds strangely apocalyptic, doesn’t it?

"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.

by NASCARbernet on Aug 15, 2011 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not EVERY pitcher.

See comment below. ;-)

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yusmeiro Petit, anyone?

Micah’s fastball DOES have movement. The problem really lies in his ability to use his other pitches to play off that fastball.

Also, contrary to your first point, I don’t believe Barry Enright or Armando Galarraga said that. ;-)

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

His mechanics are pretty much the same as the’ve always been. His breaking ball has shown some improvement(it’s still nothing special). He probably just needed some time to adjust to his loss of velocity. In college he often touched 93, his rookie year his average fastball was 90. He hasnt touched 90 in a while. He seems to have a little more movement on his fastball as well.

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Age?

Or a deliberate change on his part?

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

There's a reason Gibson pulls him early

You can’t take a guy making three-inning appearances out of the ’pen and expect him to give you 7 innings. Miley has a chance of going deep into a game.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 14, 2011 10:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I’m not saying Owings is a complete game threat, but he could have gone deep in the Colorado game. He was throwing a shutout and was still taken out after 5.

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you keep Micah in that game

You risk a) collapse from performance from fatigue, and b) injury. Not worth it. He’s been good, but pitch counts can’t be safely jerked back and forth from 40 to 100.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 14, 2011 10:35 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Possibly,

but plenty of pitchers do it anyway. What was his pitch count? I can’t recall.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't suppose

you think Trevor Bauer’s a better pitcher than Micah Owings either, do you? Since he hasn’t done anything yet in the Majors?

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Look at Miley’s stats as a full-time starter in AA, very unimpressive as well.

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 9:22 PM EDT reply actions  

Look at his entire Double-A career.

He dominated Double-A for half a season in ’09. Career Double-A ERA us comfortably below 4.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 14, 2011 10:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

True he did dominate them last season, but what happened this year? Those numbers aren’t pretty.

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe just inconsistency

Maybe he’s a second-half pitcher (in which case we should strike while the iron is hot). Maybe it was the shoulder injuries he was dealing with at the start of the year.

Let’s not forget that Miley was the toast of Spring Training before his shoulder acted up.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 14, 2011 10:52 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Owings is obviously not the same pitcher, hell he was used as a reliever all of last year and struggled with that.

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 9:26 PM EDT reply actions  

At the same time,

though altitude, other park factors, and some major league experience in most hitters generally make it quite hitter-friendly, the quality of hitter overall is still lower than in the majors.

Hitter-friendly or not, I don’t think Roy Halladay would have trouble pitching in the PCL.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Of course

But it means that the FIP comparisons from the PCL to the Majors tend to be fairly flat.

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder

by njjohn on Aug 15, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

I dunno

that I’d be able to make any sort of judgment on that.

Most pitchers are going to throw certain pitches in the PCL that’ll lead to strikeouts that would’ve been walks in the majors, and the altitude and park factors absolutely affect homers.

I’d wanna see more research into MLEs before agreeing. Ironically, I’ll bet that the opposite is more predictive — batted ball profiles probably translate more readily than FIP.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm sure there are better ways of digging into it...

…but in terms of translatability, I think that it’s as good an indicator as you can get. I mean, look at the contortions we send ourselves through trying to figure what the heck kind of players the hitters in the PCL are. You almost have to toss aside the PCL data and move back to AA to get any indication.

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder

by njjohn on Aug 15, 2011 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

That doesn't

really have anything to do with FIP in itself, though.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 17, 2011 3:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

Any of you ever been to Zephyr Field

where he pitched yesterday? I’ve been a few times, not sure if it’s as hitter friendly as the other PCL parks. I’ll try to see if I can find some home/away splits for the Z’s.

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 10:23 PM EDT reply actions  

That was noted

In yesterday’s write up.

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Wieder

by njjohn on Aug 14, 2011 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not nearly

as hitter-friendly, no, which makes pitching performances there slightly less impressive when viewed through that filter.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

i have a sneaking feeling that tnelly15

is simply a troll that has been fed for too long on this thread. he is showing all of the symptoms…

by since_98 on Aug 14, 2011 10:30 PM EDT reply actions  

Because I think Owings has done more to earn a spot in the rotation than Miley I’m a troll?

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Its kind of the way

you are going about expressing your opinion.

I got nothin'.

by Bcawz on Aug 14, 2011 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't see much of a problem

Everyone has their own methods of evaluation. There’s a strong case to be made for Micah.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 14, 2011 10:53 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Not a troll.

A little more snarky than most newbies, maybe, but certainly not more snarky than plenty of the regulars…

He’s not just saying, “Miley sucks, Owings is ttlly awesome!!!!!!!!!!” over and over again, he’s arguing a well-reasoned point that just happens to contradict the opinions of many of our members.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

It sure didnt seem like it as

the thread first started out. Obviously, a lot more has been said since then.

I got nothin'.

by Bcawz on Aug 15, 2011 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree.

But…small sample size. ;-)

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Heh

Yeah. A few of us (me included) were probably jumping to unfair conclusions too quickly. My bad.

I got nothin'.

by Bcawz on Aug 15, 2011 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Np.

Let’s just see if he comes back today.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m just a passionate Owings fan. The guy deserves an opportunity to start.

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 10:42 PM EDT reply actions  

i agree,

but i would like to see miley get his shot, especially because the roster is going to be packed in september and in the heat of the pennant race he might not get a shot.

by since_98 on Aug 14, 2011 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

For what it's worth,

Nick Piecoro agrees with your basic point.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Marquis

what’s his timetable for a return? could he back in time for october baseball??? (i’m knocking on wood all night long so don’t kill me.)
and if Wandy Rodriguez gets put through waivers would we take a chance at him?

"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd

by blank_38 on Aug 14, 2011 11:03 PM EDT reply actions  

4-6 weeks

Not really sure you would even want to use him if he was abled to in October.

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

i think i agree with you. unless our 4/5 starters have been as inconsistent as they have these past couple months.

"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd

by blank_38 on Aug 14, 2011 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

I bet he'd get a start in the first round

Before we shortened up the rotation to Kennedy/Hudson/Saunders in the second round (baseball gods willing on all of this post-season dreaming).

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 15, 2011 4:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

nobody ever

goes three SP only in the late rounds of the playoffs anymore :(

by blue bulldog on Aug 15, 2011 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

Especially since

They have tightened up the post-season schedule, to eliminate non-travel off-days.

Daron "...the D. Baxter fan-club"
Mark: "A non-profit organization."

by Jim McLennan on Aug 15, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ahhh poo nuggets.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 15, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hurting

the teams with questionable pitching depth.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

In that case,

I’m not sure it matters whether Marquis is ready for October.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wouldn't Wandy cost us way too much though?

"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth

by Rockkstarr12 on Aug 14, 2011 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

not sure.

we could make a deal with houston for them to take on salary in exchange for better prospects. would we want him if the deal is 3yrs/24MM?

"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd

by blank_38 on Aug 14, 2011 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good question

It all depends on what Houston could throw into the deal, what we’d want/settle for, etc

"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth

by Rockkstarr12 on Aug 15, 2011 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

No thank you

This is not going to be pretty. We're talking violence, strong language, adult content...

by luckycc on Aug 15, 2011 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't want Wandy anyway

I think we’d get screwed in the deal and end up paying out the nose for his contract

"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth

by Rockkstarr12 on Aug 15, 2011 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'd rather

pay more now (cash) than later. (In prospects)

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

His biggest red flag is

the number of years. We need a guy for this year only. Too much pitching depth to hang onto a guy like him for 3 years especially since people aren’t sure they want to keep saunders

by rfffr on Aug 15, 2011 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

I want to keep Saunders!

"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth

by Rockkstarr12 on Aug 15, 2011 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

Funny you mention that...

I’ll be doing a similar post to the one slated today (a bit under eight hours from time of commenting!) on Saunders next.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 15, 2011 4:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

I look forward to reading it :)

"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth

by Rockkstarr12 on Aug 15, 2011 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe postseason

But he would have no chance for a rehab outing.

Taking on two more years of expensive Wandy just for a month and a half of starts would be foolish.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 14, 2011 11:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

can we make a trade so houston sends money on over? or would they just drop the whole contract on to us if we make the claim?

and why is his WAR so low? 1.3 for an ERA of 3.50, FIP of 4.02, and xFIP of 3.66.

"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd

by blank_38 on Aug 14, 2011 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

If we make a claim

They can dump the whole deal on us, no questions asked. That’s a scenario we need to 100% avoid.

If we don’t make a claim and he passes through waivers (he probably would), we could then negotiate a trade with them and get money without any risk of them dumping the entire deal on us. It would still be stupid, IMO, because I think the Astros will ask for too much in prospect value to justify chipping in so much money. Wandy isn’t a bad pitcher, but we just have so much pitching about to hit the majors. Bauer, Miley, Skaggs, Parker, Corbin, and Brewer are all guys that could be ready to contribute by September 2012 or sooner. Heck, we could be looking to unload starting pitching (Joe) this summer, so why add a long-term guy now?

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 15, 2011 4:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

Also

fWAR works off of FIP, and Wandy’s FIP is his lowest peripheral. A 4.02 figure isn’t great – #3 starter range. 1.3 seems right for ~140 innings of #3 starter work.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 15, 2011 4:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

VERY!

"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth

by Rockkstarr12 on Aug 15, 2011 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

Looks like Miley has been called up.

http://twitter.com/#!/Lions_Baseball

by tnelly15 on Aug 14, 2011 11:37 PM EDT reply actions  

That's probably the smart move

I can see Gibby’s thinking about Duke and Owings in long relief, they actually do a pretty good job shutting down opposing teams and giving this crazed offense a chance to do what they do late.

"The wise writer, I think, writes for the youth of his own generation, the critic of the next and the schoolmasters of ever afterward." F. Scott Fitzgerald.

by NASCARbernet on Aug 15, 2011 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

here's the link

"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."

by txzona on Aug 15, 2011 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

link...

http://twitter.com/#!/Lions_Baseball

"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."

by txzona on Aug 15, 2011 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

links aren't working for me for some reason

but what he said

"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."

by txzona on Aug 15, 2011 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

If that's the case then why isn't it posted ALL OVER THE INTERNET & just ONE site?

"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth

by Rockkstarr12 on Aug 15, 2011 1:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

ReplyFail via Google Chrome

That was supposed to be in reply to Tnelly15’s post about Wade Miley being called up (via the Twitter link)

"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth

by Rockkstarr12 on Aug 15, 2011 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

I have no clue

it’s probably not official yet. The guys at SELA probably are in touch with Wade.

by tnelly15 on Aug 15, 2011 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

Anyways

its getting late here in the Central standard time zone. I’m out.

by tnelly15 on Aug 15, 2011 1:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not official

D-backs are probably pissed that SeLU leaked it.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 15, 2011 4:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

Or

Miley

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, true.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 15, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Even with this offense

those outings are wasted more often than not.

by tnelly15 on Aug 15, 2011 12:05 AM EDT reply actions  

If nothing else,

yesterday’s game confirmed that Jason Marquis is a tough mother******.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 12:16 PM EDT reply actions  

He is

He played through pain many times in his career till the injuries just got unbearable for him

"I didn't mean to hit the umpire with the dirt, but I did mean to hit that bastard in the stands." -Babe Ruth

by Rockkstarr12 on Aug 15, 2011 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Stephen Drew snorts derisively

If Marquis was a real man, he’d have reset his own leg, right there on the mound… :-)

Daron "...the D. Baxter fan-club"
Mark: "A non-profit organization."

by Jim McLennan on Aug 15, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

He did walk on it...

Or do you mean he should have displaced it so that he could subsequently reset it. :-P

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 15, 2011 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I suppose

if Chris Snyder were a real man, he would’ve taken out a scalpel and reassembled his testicle.

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 15, 2011 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

In that case

Simply playing on afterward gets him enough hard man points.

Daron "...the D. Baxter fan-club"
Mark: "A non-profit organization."

by Jim McLennan on Aug 15, 2011 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeeeah, I don't think anybody's arguing Snyder's toughness on that one....

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 15, 2011 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

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