Okay, I admittedly am not the sabermetrical aficionado that many of the posters on here are, but I do generally understand the formulas and applications of most of the acronyms. I do have a problem with one thing about WAR, and was wondering if maybe I am not understanding it correctly, maybe I'm wrong or maybe there is another valuation of a player that corrects for this sort of thing.
For an offensive player, 10 runs = 1 win and is context neutral according to this article. So if a player comes to bat in the bottom of the 9th inning with two outs, a man on first, and his team is down by one, and if he hits a HR to win the game, he only gets .2 wins. The chances of a replacement player hitting that HR have got to be pretty small. That player basically just got his team 1 win that a replacement player (in all probability) would not have.
Is there a stat that is weighted for situational hitting? It just seems like producing runs when your team is losing are more valuable to me than when your team is winning (though obviously the value for both should be adjusted the further away from being up a run, a tie game being the most valuable time to produce runs). I know there are a multitude of assumptions in there but I just wanted to get some other thoughts on this.