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Why are DBacks playoff Odds so low ?

4 games out does not seem like all that much, right ?   So why does Baseball Prospectus playoff odds report show Arizona with just a 3.6% chance of making the playoffs.  As Jim pointed out the other day, Cool Standings has them at a much more appealing 32.5%

Without getting into a study of the different methodologies between these two sites, lets just look once again at what actually has to happen:

Giants at 58-43 have a .574 Win %

If they maintain that pace the rest of the season they finish 93-69

The D Backs at 54-47 have a .535 Win %.

To Finish with 94 wins they have to go 40-21 the rest of the way , which is a .656 Pace !

So the Giants better slow down or we have no chance.

If the Giants go 30-31 over their final 61 games they still finish 88-74. The D Backs would still have to go 35-26 to finish 89-73

The D Backs going 35-26 while the Giants go 30-31 can only happen if we absolutely stomp them in head to head play. But of the 9 games remaining against the Giants, 6 are in their house and only 3 are at Chase field. The Giants are 31-18 at home.

And by the way, the Braves are a game better than the Giants at 59-42, and the D Backs only have 3 more games against the Braves, in Atlanta.

It's too bad the Giants series is the last series on this upcoming road trip, because it falls after the trade deadline. Anyway, anything less than a 6-3 road trip and taking 2 of 3 from the Giants at AT&T means winning the division is already in Hail Mary territory.

So Towers definitely should not be "buying", except if he can get an arm that is a CLEAR CUT upgrade over what he has available and he has control over that arm at least one more year beyond 2011, preferably two years.

The irony here is that if the D Backs were truly to have been buyers, they should have tried to get a deal done a month ago so they would have had the  supposed "upgrade" for more games.




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