SB Nation Arizona Editor's Pick

Another Mid-Season Diamondbacks Prospect List - This One Goes to 31!

by Amit on Jul 19, 2011 12:13 PM EDT

I had posted my mid-season list of the Diamondbacks' Top 31 Prospects at D'Backs Venom last week, but I thought it might be worthy of a FanPost since many there are a lot of prospect fans over here. My Top 10 is:

1. Trevor Bauer, RHP (20)

2. Jarrod Parker, RHP (22)

3. Tyler Skaggs, LHP (20)

4. Archie Bradley, RHP (18)

5. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B (23)

6. Matt Davidson, 3B (20)

7. Patrick Corbin, LHP (21)

8. David Holmberg, LHP (20)

9. Bobby Borchering, 3B/1B (20)

10. A.J. Pollock, CF (23)

I did include unsigned players such as Bauer, ABradley, and Chafin, since all indications are that they will sign with the Diamondbacks by the August 15 deadline. I probably should have ranked Anthony Meo a little higher, and Adam Eaton seems to be moving up the list on a weekly basis. All comments and feedback are appreciated. The full list of 31 (plus notes on each player) as well as another 20 players to keep an eye on can be found here:

Diamondbacks' Top 31 Prospects

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Comments

Nice!

Is it just me or is this as solid of a top 10 we have had in years?

by Majabe on Jul 19, 2011 12:40 PM EDT reply actions

Definitely the best since the Haren move.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 19, 2011 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I think Skaggs might have passed Parker.

That’s what all of the experts think

by rfffr on Jul 19, 2011 2:06 PM EDT reply actions

Upside

The reason I have Parker higher is that he still throws 5-6 mph harder than Skaggs. Parker can be a #1 starter with a 97 mph fastball and the kind of movement his pitches have. Skaggs has been great, and still may add a few mph to his velocity, but I’m not sure if his upside is as high when his fastball moves at 92 mph.

I’ve been saying all year that this is purely a recovery year for Parker. I am expecting him to step up quite a bit in 2012, but wouldn’t be surprised to see him have command issues for all of this year. That is quite common for players coming off TJS. But his stuff is still electric, so I am optimistic for his future.

by Amit on Jul 19, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm also still with you on this

I think Parker is being forgotten for no real reason other than numbers… that we should have expected… Why we’re freaking out when he’s basically getting used to throwing with a new elbow – think about that for a second – is beyond me. Skaggs has jumped up a lot, but Parker was rated very highly going into the year and his stuff is 100% there, so if anything we should be more optimistic about Parker than we were pre-season.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 19, 2011 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions

i'm still with you on this in some respects

i think for a lot of actual prospect followers, it’s not so much that Parker has fallen, but that Skaggs has risen ALOT

like…BA’s midseason top 50 had Skaggs at #19. preseason, they had Jarrod Parker at #33 preseason. i think the legit prospect guys realize Parker has had a flatline season (in the sense that his stock has neither risen, nor fallen). it’s just that they think Skaggs is THAT GOOD.

which is debatable of course.

by blue bulldog on Jul 19, 2011 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions

But with graduations

And that Parker’s stock should be rising with his stuff returning, shouldn’t he be in that top-20 range? I like Parker more than a lot of the guys I’m seeing in that range on lists.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 20, 2011 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions

it just depends i guess

i think the graduations get balanced out by guys who move up. prospects with breakout performances.

like a lot of guys who have drastically moved up the pitching lists are stuff guys with high upsides, so pitchers that BA potentially thinks has more upside than JP, or at least same upside as JP without the TJ risk. Martinez, Walker, Vizcaino, Lee. then there are the stellar performance guys like Pomeranz, Harvey, Skaggs.

i guess what i mean is, i think it’s entirely conceivable for a prospect’s stock to hold steady, and his ranking decrease from #33 to #40 (which really isn’t that big of a movement at all). i guess i also don’t really believe seeing the stuff return should increase Parker’s stock, because the list BA made was post-instructs, when we already had a pretty good idea that the stuff was going to be alright.

by blue bulldog on Jul 20, 2011 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, that's true enough

I think both JP and Skaggs belong in the 20-30 range, but there’s much less of a difference between #25 and #35 than I think some people make it out to be. I typically don’t argue for a ten spot change for a reason, not sure why I made an issue of it here. :-P

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 21, 2011 4:33 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm still not fully convinced he can log 200 innings a year

He’s undersized, is a slider pitcher, and has already blown out his arm early in his career.

by CaptainCanuck on Jul 24, 2011 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Valid point

But he has a new elbow and the undersized concern is less of an issue that it was when he was drafted. The slider pitcher issue is very real, but I’m not particularly scared of this being recurrent. TJ surgery recoverees don’t often have to have the surgery again.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 24, 2011 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm hoping he doesn't throw the slider enough

to actually make it an issue

by blue bulldog on Jul 24, 2011 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions

It's his best off-speed pitch...

He uses it a decent bit.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 25, 2011 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions

no bones to pick

with this top ten my friend!

"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."

by txzona on Jul 19, 2011 4:17 PM EDT reply actions

The Supp/2nd guys need to be higher

And I don’t think any South Bend bats belong on this list, nonetheless two of them. Walters has some reserve potential, so I can see that ranking, but as someone who watched Arbelo consistently flail away at anything that moves more than a couple inches this year, take it from me that he’s nothing special. Power is nice and all, and he has gobs of it, but Arbelo couldn’t hit a hanging big-league curve, not to mention a well-thrown one. Add in ARL’s, position values, etc. and he’s close to a non-prospect to me.

I’ll be very interested to watch Krauss as the season unfolds. I have him nowhere as high as you do, b/c I’m less optimistic about a second-half surge, but if he actually proves to be one of those freakish LaRoche-like late-starters, he can jump up in a hurry. His bat needs to carry him, but we could use some offense.

Biggest quibble (in a list that I really like): Eaton >>> Cowgill.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 19, 2011 9:07 PM EDT reply actions

Krauss

Yeah, he’s been a real disappointment this year. But he started out slowly in the Cal League and the AFL last year, and then came on strong down the stretch. But he’s running out of time. Even in his down year, he’s still 6th in the SL in Walks, and has an ISO over .200, so it’s not all bad.

Yeah, Arbelo’s not really a prospect, but 23 HR gives him a nice lead in the Midwest League. I figured that was good enough for #31.

by Amit on Jul 20, 2011 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions

for Krauss

it’s the contact rates. scouts preseason thought Goldy’s bat was the one with more holes that would get exploited in AA, not Krauss. instead, Krauss’s K% has increased this year to a level where his power is not good enough to compensate, whereas Goldy’s K% has drastically decreased.

by blue bulldog on Jul 21, 2011 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

His K% has gone from 23.7% to 27.2%, which is definitely too high (basically the same rate as Goldschmidt last year). But his BB% has increased from 9.6% to 12.4%, and his ISO is a solid .211. His BABIP has dropped all the way to .297 this year, after three years of being between .355-.366. We’ll see if he can bring it back.

by Amit on Jul 21, 2011 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions